KY-06: Chandler Leads Barr by 14 Points

Braun Research for cn|2 (7/26-27, likely voters, no trend lines):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 46

Andy Barr (R): 32

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.4%)

This is the second poll we’ve seen of the race between Democrat Ben Chandler and Lexington attorney Andy Barr. Back in June, the Barr campaign released their own poll conducted by the Tarrance Group showing Chandler in the lead by 45-38. For their part, Chandler’s campaign isn’t releasing any of their own polling, but told Roll Call that they had a “strong double-digit lead” in June.

The warning sign for Chandler here is his standing under the 50% line given the fact that it’s unlikely that the name “Andy Barr” is seared into the memory of many area residents. Chandler has a real race on his hands, but he should be able to retain his advantage if he stays on his toes. One telling statistic is that voters side with Chandler over Barr on the issue of government spending by a 45-41 margin — that’s not the greatest spread, but certainly an indication of some residual trust that Chandler’s built up in a fairly conservative district.

11 thoughts on “KY-06: Chandler Leads Barr by 14 Points”

  1. This sample is 52% over 50.   That isn’t as crazy as 77%, but still very different than the 44% in 2008.  (Can’t find exact comparisons for 2006 or 2004).

    These pollsters love seniors I guess, but at least this poll is in the ballpark while the 77% KY Senate one was silly.

  2. I just looked up his FEC reports and the dude is a fundraising machine! He’s raised over 800k this cycle. He spent 450k though winning the primary against a few some dudes. Chandler has a big CoH advantage, 1.7 million to 360k. I’m surprised Chandler wasn’t hurt by his Cap and Trade vote. I’m sure the new 527 former to oppose him and Conway will change that, along with the NRCC. Is that enough to kill his chances here?  

  3. it would take more than a national tide to knock Chandler down. The year is going to hurt him but he will have to run a horrible campaign as well if he is going to lose and Ben Chandler does not run bad campaigns. I know someone who worked on his 2003 Gubernatorial run and I have heard he is excellent on the stump and she described him of one of the best she worked with. If he would have ran for Senate I have little doubt it would be Lean D right now. The fact he was an early Obama supporter and voted for cap and trade in an R+13 coal friendly district will hurt him but I have no doubt he will survive. Barr is a good candidate but I still think Chandler wins, probably not by as much as he has in the past but still fairly comfortably.  

  4. There are at least 50 seats more vulnerable than this one. Plus the 50% incumbent rule is old hat these days.

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