MI-Gov: Bernero, Snyder Lead Primaries

EPIC-MRA for Detroit Free Press (7/26-27, likely voters, 6/? in parentheses):

Virg Bernero (D): 40 (24)

Andy Dillon (D): 32 (34)

Undecided: 28 (42)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Republican primary:

Rick Snyder (R): 25 (20)

Mike Cox (R): 24 (26)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 18 (24)

Mike Bouchard (R): 16 (16)

Tom George (R): 1 (2)

Undecided: 15 (12)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

About the only thing we can say for certain about the Michigan gubernatorial primaries is that they’re both very unstable. On the Democratic side, state House speaker Andy Dillon has led most polls, but Lansing mayor Virg Bernero seems to be catching a late surge (to the extent that he’s been in the lead in the two most recent polls), perhaps as labor households finally find out that he’s the “labor” candidate.

EPIC-MRA finds Rick Snyder on top, although Snyder, Rep. Peter Hoekstra, and AG Mike Cox have all been taking turns on top of a closely-matched trio for months now, and there’s no reason to see Snyder as any likelier than the other two to win Tuesday’s primary. Snyder may have a path to victory though, in that he has the moderate side of the equation pretty much to himself; although the conservative part of the Republican primary electorate is certainly bigger, there are three viable conservatives in the field, splitting that segment. Snyder has the endorsement of noted moderates like ex-Gov. William Milliken and ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, and moreover, he’s actively seeking crossover votes from Dems and indies in this open primary state. In a one-on-one primary, I don’t think this approach would work, but with such a conservative pile-up in the GOP field, Snyder has more than a fighting chance.