California: How Demographic Changes Impacted Partisan Changes (Part 2)

Our next stop is the inland area of Central and Northern California. Back in the old days, while the Republicans dominated the cities, Democrats dominated the countryside. The shift to the Republicans began in the 1960s after Civil Rights, though some areas held out until the 1980s. The only counties to resist the rightward trend were heavily urban Sacramento and college town Yolo (home of UC Davis).

In recent decades, population growth began a reversal of the Republican trend in counties such as San Joaquin as well as the tiny ski-based counties of Alpine and Mono and to a lesser extent Inyo. Other counties (Butte, Merced), with significant college towns, also reversed course. Fresno and El Dorado (suburban Sacramento) are beginning to follow those counties. Fortunately for California Democrats, aside from Kern and Kings, none of the counties that are still trending Republican are growing very fast, and this region has never made up more than 21% of the state’s population so the Republican shift has been far outweighed by the dramatic Democratic shifts in the NorCal and SoCal megalopolises.

Alpine

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	243	-21.4%	0.01%	R+25.8
1930	341	40.3%	0.01%	R+21.6
1940	323	-5.3%	0.00%	R+15.4
1950	241	-25.4%	0.00%	R+33.0
1960	397	64.7%	0.00%	R+24.4
1970	484	21.9%	0.00%	R+8.7
1980	1,097	126.7%	0.00%	R+7.9
1990	1,113	1.5%	0.00%	R+3.7
2000	1,208	8.5%	0.00%	R+3.5
2008*	1,061	-12.2%	0.00%	D+7.4

Amador

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	7,793	-14.2%	0.23%	D+1.9
1930	8,494	9.0%	0.15%	D+14.8
1940	8,973	5.6%	0.13%	D+12.8
1950	9,151	2.0%	0.09%	D+4.9
1960	9,990	9.2%	0.06%	D+6.8
1970	11,821	18.3%	0.06%	D+3.7
1980	19,314	63.4%	0.08%	R+3.2
1990	30,039	55.5%	0.10%	R+3.7
2000	35,100	16.8%	0.10%	R+9.4
2008*	38,238	8.9%	0.10%	R+11.4

Butte

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	30,030	10.0%	0.88%	R+1.5
1930	34,093	13.5%	0.60%	D+3.6
1940	42,840	25.7%	0.62%	D+4.4
1950	64,930	51.6%	0.61%	R+6.3
1960	82,030	26.3%	0.52%	R+4.5
1970	101,969	24.3%	0.51%	R+6.1
1980	143,851	41.1%	0.61%	R+8.0
1990	182,120	26.6%	0.61%	R+2.9
2000	203,171	11.6%	0.60%	R+10.1
2008*	220,337	8.4%	0.60%	R+3.1

Calaveras

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	6,183	-32.6%	0.18%	R+0.6
1930	6,008	-2.8%	0.11%	D+7.6
1940	8,221	36.8%	0.12%	D+7.1
1950	9,902	20.4%	0.09%	R+3.9
1960	10,289	3.9%	0.07%	R+1.7
1970	13,585	32.0%	0.07%	R+5.5
1980	20,710	52.4%	0.09%	R+6.3
1990	31,998	54.5%	0.11%	R+3.5
2000	40,554	26.7%	0.12%	R+10.2
2008*	46,843	15.5%	0.13%	R+10.6

Colusa

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	9,290	20.2%	0.27%	D+7.1
1930	10,258	10.4%	0.18%	D+7.3
1940	9,788	-4.6%	0.14%	D+7.0
1950	11,651	19.0%	0.11%	R+2.1
1960	12,075	3.6%	0.08%	D+1.4
1970	12,430	2.9%	0.06%	R+1.9
1980	12,791	2.9%	0.05%	R+7.0
1990	16,275	27.2%	0.05%	R+9.5
2000	18,804	15.5%	0.06%	R+16.1
2008*	21,204	12.8%	0.06%	R+14.9

El Dorado

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	6,426	-14.2%	0.19%	D+2.6
1930	8,235	28.2%	0.15%	D+15.5
1940	13,229	60.6%	0.19%	D+13.2
1950	16,207	22.5%	0.15%	R+1.7
1960	29,390	81.3%	0.19%	D+2.2
1970	43,833	49.1%	0.22%	D+0.1
1980	85,812	95.8%	0.36%	R+5.8
1990	125,995	46.8%	0.42%	R+7.5
2000	156,299	24.1%	0.46%	R+12.7
2008*	176,075	12.7%	0.48%	R+10.0

Fresno

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	128,779	70.2%	3.76%	D+3.4
1930	144,379	12.1%	2.54%	D+8.7
1940	178,565	23.7%	2.59%	D+15.6
1950	276,515	54.9%	2.61%	D+7.4
1960	365,945	32.3%	2.33%	D+9.9
1970	413,329	12.9%	2.07%	D+6.1
1980	514,621	24.5%	2.17%	R+0.4
1990	667,490	29.7%	2.24%	D+0.4
2000	799,407	19.8%	2.36%	R+5.7
2008*	909,153	13.7%	2.49%	R+4.7

Glenn

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	11,853	65.3%	0.35%	D+0.7
1930	10,935	-7.7%	0.19%	D+0.8
1940	12,195	11.5%	0.18%	D+2.6
1950	15,448	26.7%	0.15%	D+7.0
1960	17,245	11.6%	0.11%	D+1.1
1970	17,521	1.6%	0.09%	R+5.9
1980	21,350	21.9%	0.09%	R+10.2
1990	24,798	16.1%	0.08%	R+10.7
2000	26,453	6.7%	0.08%	R+19.4
2008*	28,237	6.7%	0.08%	R+15.8

Inyo

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	7,031	0.8%	0.21%	D+0.9
1930	6,555	-6.8%	0.12%	D+4.5
1940	7,625	16.3%	0.11%	D+0.4
1950	11,658	52.9%	0.11%	R+12.1
1960	11,684	0.2%	0.07%	R+6.8
1970	15,571	33.3%	0.08%	R+9.9
1980	17,895	14.9%	0.08%	R+13.4
1990	18,281	2.2%	0.06%	R+11.4
2000	17,945	-1.8%	0.05%	R+14.6
2008*	17,136	-4.5%	0.05%	R+8.7

Kern

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	54,843	45.4%	1.60%	D+10.8
1930	82,570	50.6%	1.45%	D+5.1
1940	135,124	63.6%	1.96%	D+10.2
1950	228,309	69.0%	2.16%	D+2.5
1960	291,984	27.9%	1.86%	D+2.8
1970	330,234	13.1%	1.66%	R+1.6
1980	403,089	22.1%	1.70%	R+6.6
1990	544,981	35.2%	1.83%	R+9.5
2000	661,645	21.4%	1.95%	R+13.6
2008*	800,458	21.0%	2.19%	R+14.3

Kings

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	22,031	35.7%	0.64%	D+2.6
1930	25,385	15.2%	0.45%	D+9.8
1940	35,168	38.5%	0.51%	D+13.3
1950	46,768	33.0%	0.44%	D+7.6
1960	49,954	6.8%	0.32%	D+11.4
1970	66,717	33.6%	0.33%	D+2.8
1980	73,738	10.5%	0.31%	R+2.7
1990	101,469	37.6%	0.34%	R+4.1
2000	129,461	27.6%	0.38%	R+8.6
2008*	149,518	15.5%	0.41%	R+12.8

Lassen

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	8,507	77.2%	0.25%	D+0.6
1930	12,589	48.0%	0.22%	D+7.6
1940	14,479	15.0%	0.21%	D+16.2
1950	18,474	27.6%	0.17%	D+12.1
1960	13,597	-26.4%	0.09%	D+12.3
1970	16,796	23.5%	0.08%	D+6.0
1980	21,661	29.0%	0.09%	R+0.1
1990	27,598	27.4%	0.09%	R+6.3
2000	33,828	22.6%	0.10%	R+18.2
2008*	34,574	2.2%	0.09%	R+21.0

Madera

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	12,203	45.8%	0.36%	D+5.0
1930	17,164	40.7%	0.30%	D+8.9
1940	23,314	35.8%	0.34%	D+14.0
1950	36,964	58.5%	0.35%	D+6.7
1960	40,468	9.5%	0.26%	D+11.7
1970	41,519	2.6%	0.21%	D+5.3
1980	63,116	52.0%	0.27%	R+0.4
1990	88,090	39.6%	0.30%	R+4.8
2000	123,109	39.8%	0.36%	R+14.0
2008*	148,333	20.5%	0.41%	R+12.0

Mariposa

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	2,775	-29.9%	0.08%	D+8.0
1930	3,233	16.5%	0.06%	D+7.5
1940	5,605	73.4%	0.08%	D+11.6
1950	5,145	-8.2%	0.05%	R+11.0
1960	5,064	-1.6%	0.03%	R+3.6
1970	6,015	18.8%	0.03%	R+1.2
1980	11,108	84.7%	0.05%	R+3.4
1990	14,302	28.8%	0.05%	R+2.5
2000	17,130	19.8%	0.05%	R+12.7
2008*	17,976	4.9%	0.05%	R+10.2

Merced

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	24,579	62.3%	0.72%	R+0.9
1930	36,748	49.5%	0.65%	D+4.9
1940	46,988	27.9%	0.68%	D+9.9
1950	69,780	48.5%	0.66%	D+2.9
1960	90,446	29.6%	0.58%	D+9.9
1970	104,629	15.7%	0.52%	D+5.8
1980	134,558	28.6%	0.57%	D+2.0
1990	178,403	32.6%	0.60%	D+0.7
2000	210,554	18.0%	0.62%	R+3.7
2008*	246,117	16.9%	0.67%	R+2.7

Modoc

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	5,425	-12.4%	0.16%	D+4.3
1930	8,038	48.2%	0.14%	D+7.1
1940	8,713	8.4%	0.13%	D+4.9
1950	9,678	11.1%	0.09%	R+3.3
1960	8,308	-14.2%	0.05%	D+1.1
1970	7,469	-10.1%	0.04%	R+3.7
1980	8,610	15.3%	0.04%	R+9.7
1990	9,678	12.4%	0.03%	R+9.2
2000	9,449	-2.4%	0.03%	R+21.7
2008*	9,184	-2.8%	0.03%	R+22.8

Mono

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	960	-53.0%	0.03%	R+4.7
1930	1,360	41.7%	0.02%	D+0.8
1940	2,299	69.0%	0.03%	D+0.7
1950	2,115	-8.0%	0.02%	R+21.0
1960	2,213	4.6%	0.01%	R+16.5
1970	4,016	81.5%	0.02%	R+14.0
1980	8,577	113.6%	0.04%	R+13.9
1990	9,956	16.1%	0.03%	R+6.9
2000	12,853	29.1%	0.04%	R+7.8
2008*	12,774	-0.6%	0.03%	D+2.2

Nevada

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	10,850	-27.4%	0.32%	D+0.3
1930	10,596	-2.3%	0.19%	D+6.4
1940	19,283	82.0%	0.28%	D+11.1
1950	19,888	3.1%	0.19%	R+5.8
1960	20,911	5.1%	0.13%	R+3.1
1970	26,346	26.0%	0.13%	R+1.5
1980	51,645	96.0%	0.22%	R+6.6
1990	78,510	52.0%	0.26%	R+5.6
2000	92,033	17.2%	0.27%	R+11.6
2008*	97,118	5.5%	0.27%	R+2.0

Placer

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	18,584	1.9%	0.54%	D+5.3
1930	24,468	31.7%	0.43%	D+11.6
1940	28,108	14.9%	0.41%	D+14.2
1950	41,649	48.2%	0.39%	D+6.7
1960	56,998	36.9%	0.36%	D+8.8
1970	77,632	36.2%	0.39%	D+6.5
1980	117,247	51.0%	0.50%	R+2.0
1990	172,796	47.4%	0.58%	R+7.7
2000	248,399	43.8%	0.73%	R+13.0
2008*	341,945	37.7%	0.93%	R+10.8

Plumas

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	5,681	8.0%	0.17%	D+0.8
1930	7,913	39.3%	0.14%	D+15.3
1940	11,548	45.9%	0.17%	D+17.7
1950	13,519	17.1%	0.13%	D+12.3
1960	11,620	-14.0%	0.07%	D+14.0
1970	11,707	0.7%	0.06%	D+10.8
1980	17,340	48.1%	0.07%	R+0.2
1990	19,739	13.8%	0.07%	R+0.3
2000	20,824	5.5%	0.06%	R+13.9
2008*	20,275	-2.6%	0.06%	R+10.6

Sacramento

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	91,029	34.2%	2.66%	D+0.6
1930	141,999	56.0%	2.50%	D+9.9
1940	170,333	20.0%	2.47%	D+15.5
1950	277,140	62.7%	2.62%	D+7.2
1960	502,778	81.4%	3.20%	D+9.5
1970	634,373	26.2%	3.18%	D+8.3
1980	783,381	23.5%	3.31%	D+2.0
1990	1,041,219	32.9%	3.50%	D+2.0
2000	1,223,499	17.5%	3.61%	D+1.1
2008*	1,394,154	13.9%	3.81%	D+3.7

San Joaquin

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	79,905	57.5%	2.33%	D+3.3
1930	102,940	28.8%	1.81%	D+2.1
1940	134,207	30.4%	1.94%	D+4.9
1950	200,750	49.6%	1.90%	R+2.1
1960	249,989	24.5%	1.59%	D+0.0
1970	291,073	16.4%	1.46%	D+0.5
1980	347,342	19.3%	1.47%	R+3.7
1990	480,628	38.4%	1.62%	R+1.2
2000	563,598	17.3%	1.66%	R+2.4
2008*	672,388	19.3%	1.84%	R+0.4

Shasta

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	13,361	-29.4%	0.39%	D+1.7
1930	13,927	4.2%	0.25%	D+10.8
1940	28,800	106.8%	0.42%	D+11.1
1950	36,413	26.4%	0.34%	D+2.6
1960	59,468	63.3%	0.38%	D+12.2
1970	77,640	30.6%	0.39%	D+9.1
1980	115,613	48.9%	0.49%	R+3.7
1990	147,036	27.2%	0.49%	R+8.3
2000	163,256	11.0%	0.48%	R+17.9
2008*	180,214	10.4%	0.49%	R+16.9

Sierra

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	1,783	-56.5%	0.05%	R+0.9
1930	2,422	35.8%	0.04%	D+10.4
1940	3,025	24.9%	0.04%	D+13.6
1950	2,410	-20.3%	0.02%	D+1.9
1960	2,247	-6.8%	0.01%	D+4.9
1970	2,365	5.3%	0.01%	D+6.9
1980	3,073	29.9%	0.01%	D+1.4
1990	3,318	8.0%	0.01%	R+1.5
2000	3,555	7.1%	0.01%	R+17.0
2008*	3,263	-8.2%	0.01%	R+14.6

Siskiyou

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	18,545	-1.4%	0.54%	D+4.4
1930	25,480	37.4%	0.45%	D+7.8
1940	28,598	12.2%	0.41%	D+8.2
1950	30,733	7.5%	0.29%	D+1.4
1960	32,885	7.0%	0.21%	D+7.2
1970	33,225	1.0%	0.17%	D+3.9
1980	39,732	19.6%	0.17%	R+4.0
1990	43,531	9.6%	0.15%	D+1.9
2000	44,301	1.8%	0.13%	R+13.0
2008*	44,542	0.5%	0.12%	R+9.7

Stanislaus

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	43,557	93.4%	1.27%	R+1.0
1930	56,641	30.0%	1.00%	R+3.3
1940	74,866	32.2%	1.08%	R+0.4
1950	127,231	69.9%	1.20%	R+1.7
1960	157,294	23.6%	1.00%	D+4.5
1970	194,506	23.7%	0.97%	D+5.3
1980	265,900	36.7%	1.12%	D+1.4
1990	370,522	39.3%	1.25%	R+0.3
2000	446,997	20.6%	1.32%	R+4.4
2008*	510,694	14.2%	1.40%	R+5.4

Sutter

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	10,115	59.8%	0.30%	D+3.2
1930	14,618	44.5%	0.26%	D+9.2
1940	18,680	27.8%	0.27%	D+5.7
1950	26,239	40.5%	0.25%	R+9.2
1960	33,380	27.2%	0.21%	R+9.4
1970	41,935	25.6%	0.21%	R+9.2
1980	52,246	24.6%	0.22%	R+10.6
1990	64,415	23.3%	0.22%	R+15.0
2000	78,930	22.5%	0.23%	R+17.5
2008*	92,207	16.8%	0.25%	R+14.4

Tehama

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	12,882	13.0%	0.38%	D+1.0
1930	13,866	7.6%	0.24%	R+1.9
1940	14,316	3.2%	0.21%	R+0.6
1950	19,276	34.6%	0.18%	R+7.6
1960	25,305	31.3%	0.16%	D+1.7
1970	29,517	16.6%	0.15%	D+2.5
1980	38,888	31.7%	0.16%	R+3.9
1990	49,625	27.6%	0.17%	R+3.5
2000	56,039	12.9%	0.17%	R+15.3
2008*	61,550	9.8%	0.17%	R+16.2

Trinity

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	2,551	-22.7%	0.07%	D+2.3
1930	2,809	10.1%	0.05%	D+13.2
1940	3,970	41.3%	0.06%	D+7.9
1950	5,087	28.1%	0.05%	R+1.4
1960	9,706	90.8%	0.06%	D+9.2
1970	7,615	-21.5%	0.04%	D+4.4
1980	11,858	55.7%	0.05%	R+3.6
1990	13,063	10.2%	0.04%	D+2.5
2000	13,022	-0.3%	0.04%	R+10.9
2008*	14,317	9.9%	0.04%	R+3.1

Tulare

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	59,031	66.6%	1.72%	R+0.8
1930	77,442	31.2%	1.36%	D+0.6
1940	107,152	38.4%	1.55%	D+4.0
1950	149,264	39.3%	1.41%	R+1.4
1960	168,403	12.8%	1.07%	D+0.4
1970	188,322	11.8%	0.94%	R+3.5
1980	245,738	30.5%	1.04%	R+6.7
1990	311,921	26.9%	1.05%	R+8.2
2000	368,021	18.0%	1.09%	R+12.9
2008*	426,276	15.8%	1.17%	R+13.5

Tuolumne

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	7,768	-22.2%	0.23%	D+3.1
1930	9,271	19.3%	0.16%	D+6.2
1940	10,887	17.4%	0.16%	D+9.9
1950	12,584	15.6%	0.12%	R+3.7
1960	14,404	14.5%	0.09%	D+3.0
1970	22,169	53.9%	0.11%	D+1.7
1980	33,928	53.0%	0.14%	R+3.0
1990	48,456	42.8%	0.16%	R+1.3
2000	54,501	12.5%	0.16%	R+8.6
2008*	55,644	2.1%	0.15%	R+9.9

Yolo

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	17,105	22.8%	0.50%	D+1.2
1930	23,644	38.2%	0.42%	D+6.0
1940	27,243	15.2%	0.39%	D+5.8
1950	40,640	49.2%	0.38%	D+2.0
1960	65,727	61.7%	0.42%	D+7.3
1970	91,788	39.7%	0.46%	D+13.9
1980	113,374	23.5%	0.48%	D+6.4
1990	141,210	24.6%	0.47%	D+11.8
2000	168,660	19.4%	0.50%	D+9.1
2008*	197,658	17.2%	0.54%	D+13.3

Yuba

Year	Population	Change	% of state	PVI
1920	10,375	3.3%	0.30%	R+2.8
1930	11,331	9.2%	0.20%	D+11.0
1940	17,034	50.3%	0.25%	D+11.7
1950	24,420	43.4%	0.23%	R+3.1
1960	33,859	38.7%	0.22%	R+0.2
1970	44,736	32.1%	0.22%	R+1.2
1980	49,733	11.2%	0.21%	R+1.8
1990	58,228	17.1%	0.20%	R+8.8
2000	60,219	3.4%	0.18%	R+13.5
2008*	73,067	21.3%	0.20%	R+14.0