SurveyUSA for the Denver Post/KUSA-TV (7/27-29, likely and actual voters for the primary, registered voters for the general, 6/15-17 in parens):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 45 (53)
Andrew Romanoff (D): 48 (36)
Undecided: 8 (11)
(MoE: ±4.3%)Ken Buck (R): 50 (53)
Jane Norton (R): 41 (37)
Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43 (43)
Ken Buck (R): 43 (46)
“Third Party”: 7 (6)
Undecided: 7 (5)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (44)
Jane Norton (R): 43 (47)
“Third Party”: 7 (5)
Undecided: 5 (4)Andrew Romanoff (D): 44 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 44 (49)
“Third Party”: 6 (6)
Undecided: 6 (5)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (41)
Jane Norton (R): 45 (45)
“Third Party”: 8 (8)
Undecided: 7 (7)
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Yup, shit just got real for Michael Bennet. After dwarfing Andrew Romanoff in terms of both polls and fundraising for months, Bennet’s support has taken a major hit from the stream of negative ads that Romanoff has launched in recent days. I suppose it shouldn’t be surprising, considering that voters have no fealty to an incumbent appointed by an unpopular departing Governor who’s still struggling to project himself as more Senatorial than Some Dude, but it’s still remarkable, nonetheless.
Perhaps most disturbing for Michael Bennet is that his pushback against this poll, in the form of his own internal poll, was less than forceful. Bennet’s poll, conducted by Harstad Strategic Research from 7/28-29, has Romanoff trailing by only 41-37. Yikes!
Gubernatorial numbers:
Scott McInnis (R): 39 (57)
Dan Maes (R): 43 (29)
Undecided: 18 (14)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
John Hickenlooper (D): 48 (43)
Scott McInnis (R): 43 (47)
Undecided: 9 (4)John Hickenlooper (D): 50 (44)
Dan Maes (R): 41 (45)
Undecided: 9 (6)John Hickenlooper (D): 46
Dan Maes (R): 24
Tom Tancredo (ACP): 24
Undecided: 7John Hickenlooper (D): 44
Scott McInnis (R): 25
Tom Tancredo (ACP): 26
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±3.2%)
Is John Hickenlooper the luckiest candidate this cycle, or what? For what it’s worth, a Republican poll of otherwise unknown origin, flashed to Chris Cillizza, apparently has McInnis ahead of the unknown, poorly-funded Dan Maes by 15% — and Jane Norton ahead of Ken Buck by 45-40 in the Senate primary.
(and there are people just like him in all parties) are fascinating political specimens, because they’d rather torpedo their own party’s chances just to make a point than win under what they perceive to be less than ideal conditions. Because there’s no way Tancredo thinks he’s going to accomplish anything other than that. It’s virtually impossible for anyone other than Hickenlooper to win under this setup.
You are right that Hick is the luckiest sob that side of the Mississipi, even luckier than Reid in NV. This CO-Gov implosion was totally unexpected and he just got a lift even money could not buy.
However, I am not optimistic about the Senate regardless of whether Romanoff or Bennet are the nominees. Ken Buck is probably easier to beat than Norton but both are lackluster candidates but our bench is swimming against a tough tide. I’d say CO appears to have reverted to its GOP lean for this election cycle and they, as most swing states, are willing to seperate local races from national ones.
Whatever the Obama 2008 voters in the burbs around Denver felt in Nov 2008, they either have serious buyer’s remorse or are AWOL. I’m not even sure money advantage will help either Dem (assuming there even is one), but CO is not that expensive a state.
Shame that it came to this, but this was one of several clusterfuck Senate appointments by this WH that really didn’t have to happen this way.
needs to go completely nuclear on Romanoff like Romanoff is doing to him if he wants to win this thing. Talk about how he is an outsider while Romanoff is a career politician and talk about his progressive achievements in the Senate and his Obama endorsement. I think it is looking like a Romanoff win for now, especially since Bennet released a poll showing him up only four but I said the same thing about Halter so I still have hope. Bennet can still turn this around and I hope he will.
between Romanoff and Bennett? I mean, I put so little stock in the possibility of a Romanoff victory I haven’t even been paying attention to the head-to-head matchups between him and the Republicans.
Boy, Colorado’s politics have been twisty this year, haven’t they?
I personally doubt Bennet would be winning if he were in Hickenlooper’s place.
Let’s remember our favorite motto, candidates and campaigns matter. Hickenlooper was the absolute best candidate available for Governor. Even against a Republican tide, he still went for it. And so far, no campaign gaffes I’ve heard of from his side. As a candidate, I also have heard Hickenlooper was a good mayor of Denver…a nice springboard to a statewide run.
Sure we needed help to win this one, but I don’t want to chalk too much up to luck. Everything else went right outside of the luck factor.
I’ve never been wild about Bennet for some reason, though I suppose there’s not much difference between him and Romanoff on substance. Romanoff is more rhetorically progressive though, which indicates to me he might be a bit more willing to go places Bennet wouldn’t if the need arose, though that could be wrong. I guess I’d throw my lot to Romanoff if I were in CO, but I really don’t know who’d be better in the general.
As for Hick, they say luck is where preparation meets opportunity. He’s been prepared, and he’s getting one hell of an opportunity. I bet every Democrat in America (the ones in real races, at least) wishes they were him.