Ipsos for Reuters (7/30-8/1, likely voters, no trendlines):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 48
Sharron Angle (R): 44
Other: 2
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±4.6%)
The first poll of NV-Sen for Ipsos isn’t particularly surprising; most polls lately have averaged out to a lead for Reid in the low- to mid-single-digits. What is very interesting about this poll is that they release separate likely voter and registered voter numbers, and let me just say: holy crap, take a look at the disparity with the RVs! Among RVs (MoE 4%), Harry Reid completely dominates, leading 52-36 (with 2 for other). That points to as clear a quantification of the “enthusiasm gap” between the parties this year as I’ve seen, and certainly should spur more conversation on how Democrats should be looking to activate those currently “unlikely” voters who’d vote Dem if they actually voted.
It’s been a few days since we’ve talked about Nevada, and Sharron Angle has been very busy, saying enough bizarre things to fill a whole article. She started out on Monday with a Fox News interview, where she got a little too candid about her media strategy: she said she wanted “the press to be our friend,” and “ask the questions we want to answer so that they report the news the way we want it to be reported.” Well, that would certainly explain why she was appearing on Fox (whose Carl Cameron had to titter nervously and call her “naive” in the face of all that ill-advised honesty).
Then yesterday it came out that Angle, who’d previously referred to running for office as a “calling from God,” had gone way beyond that in a previously-unnoticed radio interview with a Christian news service from a few months ago. She attacked entitlement programs as wanting to “make government our God,” and referred to “dependency” on the government as “idolatry” and a violation of the First Commandment.
From his perch on the other side of the country, Mitch McConnell can clearly see the trainwreck unfolding, and he made it clear that there won’t be a repeat of 2004, when Bill Frist campaigned against Tom Daschle on his turf: McConnell confirmed he won’t campaign in person in Nevada this year. Nor can Angle count on help from Danny Tarkanian, whom she dispatched in the primary: Lois Tarkanian (Danny’s mom, and wife to basketball legend Jerry) announced she’s joining Harry Reid’s campaign, in order to “call out Sharron Angle’s extreme and dangerous positions.” At least Angle is still mixing it up on the airwaves, with her newest TV spot a relatively normal and coherent one, although it does make the leap of trying to blame the entire housing bubble collapse on Reid.
Rory Reid (D): 39
Brian Sandoval (R): 50
Other: 1
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Ipsos isn’t so kind to the younger Reid, finding him trailing Brian Sandoval by 11 in the open gubernatorial race. The registered voter numbers, as you might expect, show a much closer race, giving Sandoval a lead of only 43-42.
Angle is seriously scary. I hope Reid keeps the pressure up. I’d put out an ad with a recording of that radio show, play Angle saying that. I wonder how much long GOPVOTER will able to say he’d vote for Angle, rather than none of the above.
I’m really eagerly waiting for Kenny Guinn’s Reid endorsement; he’s very moderate and on top of that he had a rocky relationship with Angle when she was in the State House, she lambasted him a couple of times and opposed all of his agenda. Reid already has the endorsements of Republican Sparks Mayor Geno Martini, and the highly respected Republican mayor of Reno, Bob Cashell. I think a “Republicans for Reid” ad would be detestating.
Play that over all races everywhere and things would be a lot different. The question is how do we motivate those who are turned off. The economy won’t be getting much better. There are no more major legislative accomplishments (probably).
I’ve never seen a RV/LV gap that large. And while it could mean the enthusiasm gap will have immense implications, it could also mean that there is something off with how the pollster determines what a likely voter is. For example, if part of the screen is “Did you vote in the last midterm election?” that will exclude a lot of Obama ’08 voters. Or, if the screen assumes that in a midterm, 45% of Nevada registered voters will vote (I’m making this up, obviously), and 40% of respondents say they will definitely vote this fall while another 20% say they will probably vote this fall, then the pollster may be excluding a lot of those self-described probable voters.
In any event, I am taking some heart in seeing this gap between RVs and LVs, because I think all pollsters this year are having some problems determining LVs. As we get closer to the election, the LV screen may be more accurate. And certainly in a place like NV, the Reid machine can spend the money to turn more of those RVs into LVs (and help Dina Titus at the same time).
it looks like Danny Tarkanian himself is supporting Sharron Angle, and is defending Angle’s comments from 2009 about a family ideally only having one parent out working.
Do we even know if Lois is a Republican?
Also, what could McConnell possibly bring to her campaign? He has the charisma of a turtle.