SurveyUSA (7/22-25, registered voters, no trend lines) for the Civitas Institute (R):
Heath Shuler (D-inc): 45
Jeff Miller (R): 44
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.6%)
This poll has been sitting on our desk for a few days, so it’s about time we cleared the decks.
Civitas, themselves a pollster of the Republican persuasion, occasionally farms out their horse race polling to SurveyUSA, just as they’ve done so with this poll of Heath Shuler’s bid for a third term. Interestingly, this poll offers an even rosier view of the race for Republican Jeff Miller than his own internal poll released back in June, where Shuler led by 46-34. However, there’s nothing immediately wonky-looking in the crosstabs, as the party ID split is 40D-33R-26I — probably not far off the mark in this ancestrally Democratic district. We never like to rest our opinion of a race solely on one poll, but the fact that Shuler is resting in the mid-40s in the only two publicly-released polls of this race so far suggests that this seat won’t be a gimme at all.
As a bonus finding, according to this poll, Richard Burr leads Democrat Elaine Marshall by 42-39 in the 11th CD.
Obama lost Schuler’s district 47-52 while winning statewide. Assuming that number is correct, that’s actually a good sign for Marshall.
I said it when this poll first came out. I’m a person who believes that the “economic cake is baked” in terms of this election, but this seat may be an exception to the rule. I think the economic indicators between now and election day may play a role here.
I thought people really liked Shuler. For a Rep-leaning district it’s pretty moderate, and down in MS Gene Taylor was using his work with Shuler as a positive at a town hall. (and some old guy thought he meant Chuck Schumer and was about to go on an antisemitic tirade before Taylor stopped him lol).
I thought Shuler had done much to entrench himself. In a bad cycle things like this start to pile up. The senate number seems good for Marshall. That same number also suggests that this isn’t just an R oversample but that Shuler is in real danger.
That Senate poll also has Libertarian Mike Beitler getting 10% of the vote in the 11th.
This doesn’t seem right. Even if it is, Miller will be so massively outspent that Shuler will be ok.
Unfortunately what we’ve seen with alot of public polls in NC this year (and probably everywhere), especially with the legislature, is anybody-but-the-incumbent winning. SurveyUSA has done a ton of NC legislative polls recently for a conservative group called Civitas. They are trying to drive the narrative and I think this is the same thing.
Interestingly, all these polls seem to show the D to R swings more in the piedmont and eastern parts of the state than the west. Democrats have stronger numbers both in terms of re-elect and favorability there than elsewhere on these public and some internal polls.
I’ve also been skeptical of all polls showing the libertarian with that large of numbers. Third parties have never been strong in NC – so weak that they didn’t even qualify for the ballot for a few cycles prior to 2008. But, 2010 is different so we’ll see.
Either way, I expect Heath to be just fine this year.