Braun Research for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics (8/5-8, registered voters, no trend lines):
John Adler (D-inc): 31
Jon Runyan (R): 25
Peter DeStefano (I): 4
Undecided: 34
Not Voting: 6John Adler (D-inc): 35
Jon Runyan (R): 28
Undecided: 23
Not Voting: 13
(MoE: ±4.8%)
The eggheads at Rutgers are out this week with a new poll of New Jersey’s 3rd CD, the first poll of this race since John Adler released an internal last month claiming a 51-34 lead over the ex-Eagle Runyan, with 12% going to independent teabagger Peter DeStefano. That poll drew howls of protest from the Runyan campaign, who didn’t believe that DeStefano, a man who appears to be in the Witness Protection Program (as no one can seem to be able to track him down), could be winning a double digit-sized share of the vote.
Much has been made of the fact that, zomg, Runyan holds a 36-35 lead among those who are “paying the most attention to the campaign”, but the more interesting statistic from this poll is that, among those who say they are likely to vote (n=351), Adler holds a 40-30 lead over Runyan — or a 36-26 lead with DeStefano in the mix. That’s the opposite result you’d expect in a year where Republican enthusiasm has been shown to be more intense than that of Democrats, but it’s also probably true that Braun wasn’t pushing undecideds off the fence with as much force as other pollsters.
My own thoughts on this race are that Adler should’ve be a pretty appealing target for the GOP to turn into a one-term wonder, but they certainly gave him a fighting chance by relying on a B-list candidate in Runyan to get the job done.
I wonder who has the better name identification numbers, even though Runyan hasn’t lived there very long, I am betting that he may have better ID numbers as sad as that may sound.
The Health Care YES vote really gets the Tea Partiers and such motivated. Without that ammo it is a lot harder to paint Alder as “liberal” or “out of touch”. This district is really pretty even politically. There are much more liberal members with similar districts. So Alders moderation lowered him on the target list.
Adler will win because Runyan sucks as a candidate.
Adler was my State Senator before running for the House (I’m from NJ-01). He’s a nice, likable guy. I don’t care for his voting record in the House, though. Would I vote for him? Yes. Would I donate to his campaign? No, but he’s doing fine for funds anyway.
But it’s not Blanche Lincoln lousy. Dems shouldn’t sit on their hands in this one. I give a slight edge to Adler.
First KY-03, now NJ-03? Where’d these guys come from, and how reliable are they?
So earlier this week I got an email from “Carolyn Moloney” with the subject line “An Evening with Jon Runyan! Support a Great Cause!”. I became very confused by this, as I was sure Runyan was a Republican and was wondering why NY-Rep Moloney was supporting Runyan. Since I’ve gotten a few perplexing emails from campaigns this summer (Raese for WV Senate, etc), I opened it up.
Turns out “Carolyn Moloney” is the regional director for the Alzheimer’s Association (notice she spells Moloney differently than the NY rep) and that Runyan was helping out with a fundraiser.
Crisis averted LOL.