I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict that the Republicans pick up somewhere between 15 and 63 seats.
The 15 seats I am pretty confident Dems will lose (in alphabetical order):
AR-02 – Might have been competitive with Wills.
IA-03 – Two Republican polls have Zaun up and I believe he is.
KS-03 – Not sure how Moore switcheroo can work in an anti-incumbent year.
LA-03 – Dems seem to be conceding this.
MS-01 – Nunnellee internal has him up 8, and I tend to believe it.
NH-02 – Well-known Bass way ahead in polls.
NY-29 – Dems seem to be conceding this.
OH-01 – Multiple polls show Driehaus down double digits. I believe that he is down, though maybe not by that much.
OH-15 – Logic leads me to believe Kilroy is in similar shape as Driehaus.
PA-07 – Huge internal poll lead for Meehan.
PA-11 – Big internal poll lead for Barletta. Kanjorski is addicted to putting his foot in his mouth.
TN-06 – Dems seem to be conceding this.
TX-17 – Edwards beating Flores makes no sense to me after tight 2008 race with unfunded Curnock.
VA-02 – I believe the Rigell poll showing him ahead.
VA-05 – I don’t think Periello is down 23 like SUSA says, but I do believe he’s down.
Touted races I am pretty confident Dems will win:
CT-04 – Monster fundraising for Himes.
ID-01 – Labrador down big in his own poll.
IN-02 – Big lead for Donnelly in pro-lifer poll.
IN-09 – Young significantly down in his own poll.
KY-06 – Big lead for Chandler in independent poll.
NC-08 – PPP showed Kissell ahead by 6.
NJ-03 – Independent poll featured on front page shows Adler ahead.
NY-13 – Internal poll for McMahon has him way ahead.
PA-12 – Don’t see why Burns would win the second time around.
TN-04 – Republican internal had Davis up 11.
TX-23 – Republican internal had Rodriguez up.
VA-09 – SUSA has Boucher up big.
WV-01 – Oliviero up big in internal.
Races where I just don’t know:
AL-02 – Would bet a current poll would be much closer than dusty Bright internal.
AR-01 – Woolridge sour grapes hurting Causey, who otherwise should win this.
AZ-01 – This is a tough district and maybe a sleeper, but Republicans are underfunded.
AZ-05 – My gut tells me Mitchell may lose. Tough, wealthy district.
AZ-08 – Hope Jesse Kelly is right with his primary poll. He would be the easiest to beat.
CA-11 – Another sleeper. Harmer is a real go-getter for the Republicans.
CO-04 – Tend to believe we’ll lose this, but no polling confirms it.
FL-02 – I’m somewhat doubtful of Southerland internal with him up 15.
FL-08 – No friggin’ clue. Huge money advantage but internal from also ran Republican Todd Long shows Grayson down.
FL-22 – This will be one of the most expensive races in the country.
FL-24 – Crowded Republican primary may help Kosmas in tough district. No polling.
GA-08 – Tend to feel good about Marshall, but would love to see a poll.
IL-11 – Multiple partisan polls show Kinzinger up. I tend to believe it, but not quite convinced.
IL-14 – Big $$$ advantage for Foster.
IL-17 – Not in love with Hare’s response to Schilling internal showing himself up big.
IN-08 – Republicans should win this one, but Bucshon isn’t much of a candidate.
MA-10 – What a mess with all the third party candidates. Would love to see a poll.
MD-01 – Conflicting polling, but I’m not feeling good about this one.
MI-01 – Tough call with Benishek in, knock on wood. Weak fundrasing for McDowell.
MI-07 – Walberg internals have him up, but I’m not quite convinced.
MN-01 – Tend to think Walz will be OK. Demmer raised serious $$$ last quarter though.
MO-04 – Tend to think Skelton will pull this out, but would love to see a poll.
NC-11 – Conflicting polling data. Tend to think Shuler will be OK.
ND-AL – Last Rasmussen poll tight. Pomeroy was reddest-district Dem to vote yeah on HCR.
NH-01 – Shea-Porter ahead in recent polling.
NM-01 – Conflicting polling. My sense is that Heinrich is ahead by high single digits.
NM-02 – All polling on this has been tight.
NV-03 – Titus ahead in latest M/D poll.
NY-01 – This will be another enormously expensive race.
NY-19 – No friggin’ clue. Would love to see a poll. Self-funder Hayworth has $$$ advantage.
NY-20 – Was feeling good about this, but then Gibson came up with monster $$$ for Q2.
NY-23 – Have a feeling Hoffman will fuck this up for the Republicans one way or the other.
NY-24 – Everybody’s writing Arcuri off, but would love to see a poll.
OH-13 – We’ll see if money really IS everything.
OH-16 – Not sure if I believe Republican poll showing big Renacci lead.
OH-18 – Republican internal with race tied does not impress me much.
OR-05 – No polling but Republicans are talking this one up.
PA-03 – Conflicting polls here. Wouldn’t be surprised if it is close.
PA-04 – Tend to like Altmire’s chances, but no polling so far.
PA-08 – Worried about this one, but no polling.
PA-10 – Huge $$$ lead for Carney.
SC-05 – PPP showed a small lead for Spratt some time ago.
SD-AL – Not sure I believe Rasmussen and his big Noem lead, but not sure I disbelieve it either.
TN-08 – Impressive Fincher primary victory makes me less sanguine on this one.
VA-11 – Not sure I’m buying Fimian internal showing lead.
WA-03 – Dem Heck has big $$$ advantage.
WI-07 – Historically Dem district, but Lassa is playing catchup in fundraising.
WI-08 – Could be a sleeper. Crowded Republican primary may help Kagen.
I tend to agree with you for the most part on your 15 races, though I’m still keeping my fingers crossed for Edwards and Childers.
I really wish I could see some actual polls for these races instead of just internals.
From what I hear Edwards could pull it off if conservatives are not pleased with Flores. Edwards has had tougher battles in the past. I can only point to his 2004 races where he beat out Arlene Wohlgemuth by a 3.8% margin while favorite son, President bush carried the district with 70% of the vote.
Here’s hoping he puts on a good fight.
As for Childers I’m just not sure yet how it will turn out.
That’s what I was looking forward to.
Heck wouldn’t have a primary anyway, since everyone’s competing for the same voters.
This election is so strange. It’s like everyone has a rough idea of the size of the wave, but everyone disagrees on its shape.
I’m not sure why you and many others have become pessimistic about PA-07. Obama won this district 56-43, and it’s been increasingly trending blue over the last decade. Lentz seems like a very solid candidate, and with Sestak on the ballot in the Senate race, I’d expect Dem turnout to be pretty high in this district. That must’ve been a mighty convincing internal poll from Meehan that you saw!
On a similar note, I’m fully expecting that Trivedi will win PA-06, which is even bluer than the 7th. Obama won 58-41 there, and we all know that Gerlach nearly lost to some dude. I know, I know, “it’s not 2008 any more” but Gerlach has never been very popular, he had his aborted run for governor, and Trivedi is the strongest Dem candidate who’s run against him yet.
IA-03 looks out of place on that first list. I agree that most of those are gone though. Maybe TX-17 as well. I’d think that Presidential years would be harder on Edwards than midterm years, and it wasn’t like Obama had too far to fall in that area.
As to semi-local stuff I’m seeing….
Haven’t seen a MD-01 poll in a while, but Kratovil is apparently doing well with fundraising. On paper it should be as good as gone but Eastern Shore voters massively split their tickets last time to reject Harris (even while voting 55-45 against Obama) and they’ve got no particular reason not to do so again.
Nothing I’ve seen suggests Fimian has much of a chance in VA-11. The GOP picked the wrong guy; Jack Herrity could have made this race very competitive. I think Connolly is a better candidate, was widely known (exec of Fairfax County, where most of this district is) before running for the House, in an area that’s been trending in our direction for a long while.
I understand the reasons what you give for the first group and I agree with you in the big majority.
OH-15: Im more optimistic about OH-15 than about OH-01.
While Chabot was an incumbent, Stivers was not. This is a decent difference. The rematch in OH-01 is like a rematch between two incumbents.
I think if the republicans would have the same number in the internal polls about OH-15 we would know it. OH-15 was an obvious target for the republicans since 2008. I think they poll this district but with poor results (for they).