Rhode Island primary rundown

A month from tomorrow is primary night in RI, along with some other states. Having recently come home to Rhode Island, I am noticing yard signs all around, a sign that election season has started here. While the governor’s race in November promises to be interesting, the primary is the main source of action for many races in overwhelmingly Democratic Rhode Island. Without further ado, I’m going to profile the major races in September.

Governor

With Democratic state attorney general Patrick Lynch having turned and fled, state treasurer Frank Caprio (D) is assured of advancing to the general election. Hence, the main thing to watch on primary night is whether the Republicans nominate Victor Moffitt, a former state rep, or John Robitaille, the director of communications for outgoing governor Don Carcieri (R). Neither has high name recognition, and whoever wins will probably be about as important as Alan Schlesinger was in CT-Sen 2006. The Republican base in Rhode Island is already small, and it will be even smaller because Independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, a former Republican senator, will attract many moderate Rs. Regardless of which Republican wins, it will be a very interesting race, with a liberal independent, a moderate Democrat, a conservative Republican, and wild card Ken Block, the candidate of the newly-formed Moderate Party. For now I’ll predict Robitaille just because he has been in the race longer and is endorsed by the state GOP, but it could go either way.

My prediction: R John Robitaille

My vote: N/A

First Congressional District

Patrick Kennedy (D), the son of legendary Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy (D), has represented this district since 1995, but having seen the death of his beloved father and dealt with issues like alcoholism and drug abuse, he’s finally throwing in the towel. This district contains the entire Massachusetts border and also drops down to take in mostly white neighborhoods of Providence. At D+13, it is the more Democratic of Rhode Island’s two congressional districts. Therefore it is no surprise that many Democrats jumped at the chance to succeed Kennedy.

The most prominent entrant into the field by far was Providence mayor David Cicilline. With his massive fundraising and name rec advantages, he quickly jumped into the lead. Though Cicilline’s popularity has suffered from the December 2007 snowstorm which shut down the city and his proposal to tax out-of-state students at Providence colleges, his underfunded opponents have failed to take advantage of these vulnerabilities. Cicilline’s main opposition would seem to be from either former state party chairman Bill Lynch (who lost the state party’s endorsement to Cicilline) or netroots darling state rep. David Segal, with plumbing company owner Anthony Gemma lagging in fourth (despite probably having decent name rec due to his 867-5309 commercials).

With only a month left to go it doesn’t look like Cicilline will lose his advantage. If he wins he’ll likely go on to face state rep. John Loughlin (R), who should easily vanquish Some Dudette Kara Russo in the primary but doesn’t have a ghost of a chance in the general, even in this year.

My prediction: D David Cicilline R John Loughlin

My vote: D David Cicilline

Second Congressional District

Representative Jim Langevin (D) was first elected in 1996 to succeed Jack Reed (D), who in turn was elected to succeed retiring senator and Pell Grant namesake Claiborne Pell (D). This district is the less Democratic district, as it contains most of Rhode Island’s less urban western border and South (Washington) County. Of course, it has urban centers like Cranston and Warwick to balance this out, and in Rhode Island “less Democratic” still means D+9. In 2006, Langevin attracted a primary challenge from Brown University professor Jennifer Lawless (who now works at American University in DC). Lawless criticized Langevin’s anti-abortion stance, but having only lived in Rhode Island for a few years, she was seen as a carpetbagger and was blown out of the water by Langevin.

This year, state rep. Betsy Dennigan (D) is setting out to finish what Lawless started, but it’s not looking like she’ll be any more successful. Her legislative district was in East Providence, which is in RI-01, and she only moved to RI-02 to run for congress. Furthermore, she’s not even a Rhode Island native. Even without the stink of carpetbagging her campaign suffers from, abortion is probably not a big enough issue for RI-02 Democrats to dump Langevin. Expect a large Langevin win. As for the Republicans, retread Mark Zaccaria will probably win and get his ass kicked by Langevin again.

My prediction: D Jim Langevin R Mark Zaccaria

My vote: N/A

Lieutenant Governor

Current Lt. Governor Elizabeth Roberts (D) was widely talked about as a candidate for governor, but she actually declared her intention to run for re-election. Despite this, she still has a primary challenge from Red Sox executive Jeremy Kapstein. She should easily dispatch Kapstein and head to the general, where her opponents are teabagging indy Robert Healey and Republican Heidi Rogers, both of whom want to eliminate the Lt. Governor position. However, Healey and Rogers have agreed that one might drop out so that the other can consolidate the RI teabagging vote (all 5 of them). Nevertheless, Roberts is probably looking at another term.

My prediction: D Elizabeth Roberts R Heidi Rogers

My vote: D Elizabeth Roberts

Attorney General

Rhode Island voters will also get to elect a new attorney general to replace Patrick Lynch. This race hasn’t attracted any big names, but the leader on the Dem side (in terms of yard signs in my neighborhood) seems to be Steve Archambault. Archambault seems pretty liberal, and he has pledged to join Martha Coakley’s lawsuit against DOMA. For what it’s worth, I have seen Archambault yard signs, but none for the other Dem candidates, Joe Fernandez, Peter Kilmartin, and Robert Rainville. However, Kilmartin is endorsed by the state party, and his name appears first on the ballot, which could be decisive in a low-info race, and IMO probably gives him the nomination. Other candidates in the race include Moderate Party candidate Chris Little and Republican wingnut Erik Wallin. If this race remains low-profile, it will turn into Generic D vs. Generic R, an obvious benefit for Team Blue in a state like RI.

My prediction: D Peter Kilmartin (Steve Archambault in second)

My vote: D Steve Archambault (probably)

State Treasurer

With Frank Caprio having vacated this post to run for governor, here’s another open seat for Rhode Islanders to fill. Businesswoman Gina Raimondo is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. With EMILY’s List and Rhode Island’s blue tint behind her, she is favored against Republican former Carcieri aide Kerry King in November.

My prediction: N/A

My vote: D Gina Raimondo

Secretary of State

Incumbent A. Ralph Mollis (D) is running for re-election and probably has little to fear from State Sen. Lou Raptakis (D). Mollis should then go on to turn Catherine Taylor (R), a former speechwriter for Chafee and his father, the late Republican Sen. John Chafee, into roadkill.

My prediction: D A. Ralph Mollis

My vote: D A. Ralph Mollis (probably)

Mayor of Providence

David Cicilline, whose father was Italian and whose mother was Jewish, made Providence the first state capital with an openly gay mayor and the largest city with an openly gay mayor until Sam Adams’ election in Portland, OR. Now there’s a new candidate claiming the mantle of diversity, and it’s attorney Angel Taveras (D). Taveras grew up in poor, ethnically diverse South Providence, but overcame adversity to attend Harvard and Georgetown Law, which should help him appeal to well-educated liberals on the East Side. He now lives in Mount Pleasant, which has a fairly large Dominican population.

Taveras’ main competition seems to be from State Rep. Steve Costantino (D), who manages Venda Ravioli, a popular Italian market in Federal Hill, Providence’s Italian neighborhood. I’ve seen quite a few Costantino signs on the East Side, which is good news for him because if Taveras does well in Mt. Pleasant and South Providence, Costantino’s Federal Hill base won’t be enough by itself. Especially because the third candidate in the race, City Councilman John Lombardi (D), also has a base in Federal Hill/West Broadway. Certified wacko Christopher Young (D, surprisingly) rounds out the Democratic field.

Taveras seems to be favored here. All the energy I’ve noticed in the race seems to be on his side, and he is the only Hispanic candidate in a city which is 1/3 Hispanic. Furthermore, Lombardi will probably leech votes from Costantino because they share a base. Costantino would have to do very well on the East Side to win, and I think Taveras has enough support there to prevent that. As a result I would say Taveras has an advantage, albeit not insurmountable. The Republican candidate here is former failed RI-01 candidate Jonathan Scott. Seeing as how Buddy Cianci is now an independent, there’s no Republican in Providence that could win this race, much less a Some Dude like Scott. Safe D.

My prediction: D Angel Taveras

My vote: D Angel Taveras (probably)