SurveyUSA for KABC, KPIX, KGTV, and KFSN (pdf) (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/8-11 in parentheses):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (45)
Carly Fiorina (R): 47 (47)
Other: 5 (3)
Undecided: 5 (5)Jerry Brown (D): 43 (39)
Meg Whitman (R): 44 (46)
Other: 6 (7)
Undecided: 6 (8)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
SurveyUSA continues to put up odd numbers in California: Meg Whitman over Jerry Brown by a point, yeah, that’s on the pessimistic side compared with other pollsters but certainly feasible. But Carly Fiorina beating Barbara Boxer by 5, with trendlines going completely the opposite direction from the Dem-trending gubernatorial race? SurveyUSA is not only the only pollster to have ever given Fiorina a lead, but also the only pollster to recently show conservative, HP-destroying, money-limited Fiorina performing better against Boxer than the more moderate, more-acclaimed CEO, more-money-than-God Whitman against Brown. Well, all we can do is throw it on the pile with the rest of the polls; if nothing else, it’ll smooth out that PPP poll that was +9 Boxer a couple weeks ago, which may have been a little too optimistic.
They also include some downballot issues, where Dems seem to be at an advantage (which makes the pro-Fiorina tilt of this poll seem even weirder). Gavin Newsom narrowly leads GOP incumbent Abel Maldonado 43-42 in the Lt. Governor race, and they find Proposition 19, which would legalize and tax the use of marijuana, passing by a fairly broad 50-40 margin.
been for the last few months?
is a joke. Fiorina wins young voters by 4 points? She’s gets 1/4 of African Americans? Boxer is only up six with Latinos? In 2004, she got 86% of African Americans, and 73% of Latinos. Yes, Fiorina is stronger than Jones, but obviously those results don’t make sense. None of the crosstabs make any sense.
It’s harder to find problems when looking at the numbers for governor though.
Some will (or already have) shout “bias!” but their Whitman and downballot numbers disagree.
I mean no pollster is really doing anything well now. Everyone on here has their favorites, but at this point calling races has beeen at best a C-minus effort (Bennet-Romanoff, Lamont-Malloy, Dayton-Kelliher, Handel-Deal and those were just in the last week).
I don’t even know why pollster rankings matter any more. Polling of primaries has been all over the place, and polling of GE matchups has been crazy.
However, the most perplexing item I keep finding is that pollsters release GE matchups 1-2 days after a primary, and the polls were taken before the primary. This has got to be the most pointless polling of all. Most recent example is PPP in the CO-Gov race. Why did they even waste their money on a pre-primary poll?
I think the partisan break down of prop 19 to legalize marijuana is really interesting.
Dems 60 to 30 in favor, Indy 53 to 33 in favor and GOP 36 to 57 against.
At a time of hyper partisanship this is one issue that splits both parties.
Gun owners are 54 to 39 yes while pro lifers are 27 to 63 against.
Tea Party supports favor break 35% yes vs 56% no. Men are 55% to 38% yes while Women are only 45% to 43% yes. Under $40K and over $80k in income are 54% to 35% and 57% to 35% yeas while $40k to $80k are 44% to 48% no.
Whites and Black support it while Asias and latinos break against it.
Has anyone else seen an issue break in such a fractured way with the electorate?
I saw on Politico that both Fiorina and Whitman are against the big GOP push to change the 14th amendment.
I do not believe Fiorina or Whitman are ahead, but it seems like they’re staking out a middle ground.
Boxer and Brown will win though.
46-40 among Latinos when I don’t think Boxer hasn’t gotten less than 2/3 in her races? 27% AA support for Fiorina? Give me a break.