Tag: House 2010

What you are about to witness is equal parts political prognostication and mental health breakdown.  I am officially predicting that the Democrats will keep the House with a small but sustainable majority.  Republicans pick up 37 seats and Democrats pick up 5, leaving a net of 32.  Pick your own justification: the polls are wrong, the pundits are wrong, the scientific modelers are wrong.  You name it.  It’s all true in my world.  The real truth is that I cannot emotionally handle the Republicans winning a majority or even being within striking distance with the help of a few party switchers.  So fuck it.  The Democrats keep this mo fo.  Below is the most plausible scenario I could muster for my fantasy to become reality.  Pickups in bold:

AL-02 – Bright (D) 51, Roby (R) 49 – DCCC polling and investment very stable here.

AR-01 – Causey (D) 49, Crawford (R) 48 – DCCC has invested heavily.  Lots of persuadable Dems here.

AR-02 – Griffin (R) 56, Elliott (D) 42 – Little Rock base keeps Elliott over 40%.

AZ-01 – Gosar (R) 50, Kirkpatrick (D) 46 – Have never seen tangible evidence that Kirkpatrick can win.

AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) 49, Schweikert (R) 48 – DCCC internal showed 7-point lead.

AZ-07 – Grijalva (D) 52, McClung (R) 45 – DCCC does not appear overly concerned here.

AZ-08 – Giffords (D) 52, Kelly (R) 45 – Or here.

CA-03 – Lungren (R) 51, Bera (D) 42 – Too tough a district for this cycle.

CA-11 – McNerney (D) 52, Harmer (R) 48 – Improved upticket performance may help.

CA-20 – Costa (D) 52, Vidak (R) 47 – Tough race for Costa in the Central Valley.

CA-47 – Sanchez (D) 51, Tran (R) 43 – Demographics here very tough for Tran.

CO-03 – Salazar (D) 48, Tipton (R) 48 – Salazar holds on by the narrowest of margins.

CO-04 – Gardner (R) 50, Markey (D) 45 – Markey hanging tough despite DCCC abandonment.

CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) 51, Frazier (R) 46 – DCCC taking this challenge very seriously.

CT-04 – Himes (D) 53, Debicella (R) 47 – Obama rally should help boost Himes.

CT-05 – Murphy (D) 53, Caliguiri (R) 46 – Late DCCC spending may boost Murphy.

DE-AL – Carney (D) 54, Urquhart (R) 43 – Smooth sailing for Carney.

FL-02 – Southerland (R) 51, Boyd (D) 46 – Lots of registered Dems here to come back to Boyd.

FL-08 – Webster (R) 51, Grayson (D) 44 – Hopefully Webster will be defeated in 2012.

FL-12 – Ross (R) 44, Edwards (D) 37, Wilkinson (TP) 18 – Ross gets by on big financial advantage.

FL-22 – Klein (D) 51, West (R) 49 – West seems too crazy for the district, but could very well win.

FL-24 – Adams (R) 54, Kosmas (D) 46 – Adams another one who could be ripe for the picking in 2012.

FL-25 – Garcia (D) 48, Rivera (R) 48 – Republicans really picked a live one here.

GA-02 – Bishop (D) 53, Keown (R) 47 – Demographics of this district very tough for Keown.

GA-08 – Scott (R) 53, Marshall (D) 47 – Why didn’t either party committee really get into this one?

HI-01 – Hanabusa (D) 50, Djou (R) 49 – Djou will pull a lot of Case supporters, but not quite enough.

IA-01 – Braley (D) 53, Lange (R) 45 – Braley prevails in spite of huge outside spending.

IA-02 – Loebsack (D) 51, Miller-Meeks (R) 46 – Early voting may save Loebsack.

IA-03 – Boswell (D) 52, Zaun (R) 46 – Boswell did a great job of defining Zaun here.

ID-01 – Minnick (D) 52, Labrador (R) 44 – NRCC has ignored this one for a reason.

IL-10 – Seals (D) 53, Dold (R) 47 – If Cooks says Lean D this cycle, it’s Lean D.

IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 54, Halvorson (D) 46 – Halvorson simply drew a very, very tough candidate.

IL-14 – Foster (D) 49, Hultgren (R) 47 – Huge DCCC spending may bail out Foster.

IL-17 – Schilling (R) 50, Hare (D) 48 – My gut tells me that huge DCCC spending cut was not a good sign.

IN-02 – Donnelly (D) 51, Walorski (R) 46 – Donnelly has run a very strong campaign.

IN-08 – Bucshon (R) 55, Van Haaften (D) 43 – Not the year for Dems to win an R+8 open seat.

IN-09 – Young (R) 49, Hill (D) 49 – Sinking feeling that Young is emerging here.

KS-03 – Yoder (R) 55, Moore (D) 43 – Still have NEVER seen a poll, but does not seem competitive.

KY-03 – Yarmuth (D) 52, Lally (R) 44 – Neither party committee has taken an interest.

KY-06 – Chandler (D) 53, Barr (R) 47 – DCCC does not seem overly concerned here.

LA-02 – Richmond (D) 58, Cao (R) 41 – Demographics impossible for Cao.

LA-03 – Landry (R) 61, Sangisetty (D) 38 – This part of Louisiana going red fast.

MA-10 – Keating (D) 46, Perry (R) 43 – Crazy how Perry hangs around here with his baggage.

MD-01 – Harris (R) 51, Kratovil (D) 47 – Amazing campaign for Kratovil, but out with the tide.

MI-01 – Benishek (R) 47, McDowell (D) 46 – Sleeper race narrowly goes to the GOP.

MI-07 – Schauer (D) 50, Walberg (R) 46 – Schauer somehow seems to be out-performing 2008.

MI-09 – Peters (D) 51, Raczkowski (R) 46 – Late DCCC spending may boost Peters.

MN-01 – Walz (D) 50, Demmer (R) 44 – DCCC does not seem overly concerned here.

MN-08 – Oberstar (D) 54, Cravaack (R) 45 – Oberstar survives tough challenge.

MO-03 – Carnahan (D) 53, Martin (R) 43 – Well-funded but crazy challenger for Carnahan.

MO-04 – Skelton (D) 51, Hartzler (R) 47 – Skelton survives the political fight of his life.

MS-01 – Nunnellee (R) 50, Childers (D) 47 – Like Kratovil, out with the tide in spite of great campaign.

MS-04 – Taylor (D) 50, Palazzo (R) 48 – Hard to believe a guy who won by 50 last time is in this position.

NC-02 – Etheridge (D) 52, Ellmers (R) 45 – Neither party committee has taken an interest.

NC-07 – McIntyre (D) 53, Pantano (R) 46 – DCCC does not seem overly concerned.

NC-08 – Kissell (D) 51, Johnson (R) 47 – Nothing from the NRCC in this district.

NC-11 – Shuler (D) 53, Miller (R) 47 – DCCC does not seem overly concerned.

ND-AL – Berg (R) 51, Pomeroy (D) 49 – Pomeroy ran a great campaign, but too red a district.

NH-01 – Guinta (R) 52, Shea-Porter (D) 46 – No more rabbits to pull out of the hat for Shea-Porter.

NH-02 – Kuster (D) 49, Bass (R) 48 – Strong campaign from Kuster has won her big-time DCCC support.

NJ-03 – Adler (D) 49, Runyan (R) 48 – Difficult to imagine this district electing a dummy like Runyan.

NM-01 – Heinrich (D) 51, Barela (R) 48 – Heinrich turns back strong challenge in Dem district.

NM-02 – Pearce (R) 53, Teague (D) 47 – Teague fought a good fight, but looks to be out of it.

NV-03 – Heck (R) 49, Titus (D) 46 – NBC just moved this one to Lean R.

NY-01 – Bishop (D) 53, Altschuler (R) 46 – No spending from the DCCC here.

NY-13 – McMahon (D) 53, Grimm (R) 43 – No sign of life from Grimm.

NY-19 – Hall (D) 50, Hayworth (R) 49 – Strong top of ticket and late DCCC spending save Hall.

NY-20 – Murphy (D) 50, Gibson (R) 50 – Murphy pulls out extremely tough race.

NY-23 – Owens (D) 47, Doheny (R) 45 – Doug Hoffman saves the Dems again.

NY-24 – Arcuri (D) 52, Hanna (R) 48 – Arcuri somehow matches 2008 performance.

NY-25 – Maffei (D) 55, Buerkle (R) 45 – No recent signs of life from Buerkle.

NY-29 – Reed (R) 59, Zeller (D) 41 – No real contest from Dems here.

OH-01 – Chabot (R) 52, Driehaus (D) 44 – Chabot has been well ahead all along.

OH-06 – Wilson (D) 49, Johnson (R) 46 – Strickland running stronger may help.

OH-15 – Stivers (R) 51, Kilroy (D) 44 – DCCC never invested anything significant here.

OH-16 – Renacci (R) 50, Boccieri (D) 46 – Environment carries the day in free-spending race.

OH-18 – Gibbs (R) 49, Space (D) 48 – One of the biggest spending races in the country.

OR-05 – Schrader (D) 50, Bruun (R) 47 – Somewhere between Elway and Survey USA.

PA-03 – Kelly (R) 53, Dahlkemper (D) 46 – DCCC gave up on this weeks ago.

PA-04 – Altmire (D) 54, Rothfus (R) 45 – Altmire cruises in tough district.

PA-07 – Meehan (R) 50, Lentz (D) 50 – Huge DCCC spending makes it close, but Meehan holds on.

PA-08 – Fitzpatrick (R) 51, Murphy (D) 49 – Fitzpatrick one of the stronger Republican candidates.

PA-10 – Carney (D) 50, Marino (R) 49 – Amazing that a scoundrel like Marino is even in it.

PA-11 – Kanjorski (D) 50, Barletta (R) 50 – Survivor Kanjorski holds on once again.

PA-12 – Critz (D) 51, Burns (R) 49 – Burns may fare better with general electorate, but Critz holds on.

PA-15 – Dent (R) 54, Callahan (D) 44 – Callahan could take this seat in a better year.

RI-01 – Cicilline (D) 53, Loughlin (R) 44 – It’s friggin’ Rhode Island.

SC-05 – Mulvaney (R) 52, Spratt (D) 48 – Pundits don’t seem bullish on Spratt at all.

SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) 49, Noem (R) 49 – Noem baggage just enough for SHS to squeak by.

TN-04 – DeJarlais (R) 49, Davis (D) 48 – Trajectory looks awful for Davis.

TN-06 – Black (R) 63, Carter (D) 35 – Carter will not have to worry about Pelosi vote.

TN-08 – Fincher (R) 54, Herron (D) 45 – Wonder if Tanner would have won this.

TX-17 – Flores (R) 51, Edwards (D) 46 – Late gaffes from Flores make it semi-competitive.

TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) 50, Canseco (R) 47 – Buzz seems to be that Rodriguez has the edge.

TX-27 – Ortiz (D) 53, Farenthold (R) 43 – Farenthold lacks gravitas somewhat in those ducky pajamas.

VA-02 – Rigell (R) 50, Nye (D) 45 – Environment carries the day.

VA-05 – Hurt (R) 49, Periello (D) 46 – Will be sad to see Periello go if that is what happens.

VA-09 – Boucher (D) 52, Griffin (R) 45 – Still no spending from the DCCC here.

VA-11 – Connolly (D) 51, Fimian (R) 47 – Huge spending in DC by the DCCC saves the day.

WA-02 – Larsen (D) 52, Koster (R) 47 – Larsen seems to have taken control somewhat.

WA-03 – Heck (D) 50, Herrera (R) 50 – Lazy Herrera deserves to lose as much as anyone.

WA-08 – Reichert (R) 54, DelBene (D) 45 – Slightly larger than typical win for Reichert.

WI-03 – Kind (D) 52, Kapanke (R) 46 – Party committees just starting to spend here.

WI-07 – Duffy (R) 50, Lassa (D) 47 – Duffy has been ahead all along here.

WI-08 – Ribble (R) 53, Kagen (D) 47 – Ribble has been ahead in every poll I have seen.

WV-01 – Oliviero (D) 51, McKinley (R) 49 – Manchin turnaround helps Oliviero.

Week four of my five-part series shows encouraging stability, rather than a rapidly growing wave.  There is only one race (NY-23) where the NRCC spent in Week 4 but not Week 3.  There were 10 races (CO-07, FL-02, IA-01, MN-01, NC-11, NY-19, PA-07, SD-AL, TX-17, WA-02) where the DCCC spent in Week 4 but not Week 3.  Three of those (FL-02, PA-07, and TX-17) were positive for Dems, in that they were finally spending in what I had long assumed were uphill districts to say the least.  Four (CO-07, IA-01, NC-11, and WA-02) were emerging Republican targets, but not sufficiently emergent for the NRCC to pay attention to them.  The buys in IA-01 and NC-11 were under $100K.  I consider these all to be in an abundance of caution.  The remaining three (MN-01, NY-19, and SD-AL) were all modest investments in races that have already been on the map.  There were no three alarm fires in the bunch.

Nor has the NRCC locked down any more seats than last week.  In fact, this week saw two Democratic districts (FL-02 and PA-11) achieve battleground status from the jaws of death, while only one new district (NM-02) was downgraded to the “I’m not quite dead yet” category.  As a result, I spotted the Republicans 17 seats last week, and I spotted them 16 seats this week.  The NRCC did, however, officially stop spending in five districts (CO-04, FL-08, FL-24, PA-03, TN-08) that it pretty much already had locked up as of last week.

Another interesting development is the emergence of a Democratic firewall.  There were very large increases in DCCC funding for certain districts, including CA-11, FL-25, IL-10, IL-14, IL-17, IN-09, MI-07, MO-04, NH-02, NM-01, OH-18, OR-05, PA-12, WA-03, and WV-01.  I suspect that these are some of the closest races in the country, and that the majority will hinge on the outcome of some combination of these races.  I am actually slightly more hopeful of retaining the House than I was last week, but to be clear I was not hopeful at all last week, and am only a little hopeful this week.  In any event, here is your weekly I.E. analysis.  

Goners (14D, 2R):

AR-02 – Nothing from either side ever.

CO-04 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC never did.

DE-AL – Nothing from either side ever.

FL-08 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC never did.

FL-24 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC never did.

IL-11 – NRCC continued its token $30K spending here.  DCCC never spent here.

IN-08 – NRCC has not spent for a few weeks.  DCCC never did.

KS-03 – Nothing from either side ever.

LA-02 – Nothing from either side ever.

LA-03 – Nothing from either side ever.

NY-29 – Nothing from either side ever.

OH-01 – DCCC continued its token $30K ad buy.  NRCC never spent here.

OH-15 – DCCC stopped even its token ad buys this week.  NRCC never spent here.

PA-03 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC stopped spending a few weeks ago.

TN-06 – Nothing from either side ever.

TN-08 – NRCC stopped spending here this week.  DCCC never did.

“I’m not quite dead yet!” (4D, 0R):

NH-01 – DCCC has never spent here.  NRCC stable at $320K.  Guinta must have a solid lead.

NM-02 – DCCC reduced its investment from $180K to $20K.  NRCC maintained a $175K pace.  Things are not going well for Dems in NM.

TX-17 – DCCC spent $60K here this week, its first spending to date.  NRCC stopped spending here this week.  Republicans seem to believe they have finished off Edwards.

WI-08 – DCCC stopped spending here this week.  NRCC decreased its investment from $110K to $100K.  Close Penn poll and Kagen self-funding ability are rays of hope.

Battlegrounds (39D, 1R):

AL-02 – DCCC increased from $245K to $265K.  NRCC increased from $220K to $240K.  Stable race, probably with a modest Bright lead.

AZ-01 – DCCC increased from $230K to $250K.  NRCC decreased from $250K to $225K.  Probably a modest, stable lead for Gosar.

AZ-05 – DCCC decreased from $250K to $240K.  NRCC decreased from $380K to $320K.  Would have expected Dems to increase here.  Not a great sign.

AR-01 – DCCC increased from $440K to $470K.  NRCC stable at $250K.  Dems clearly believe they can win this district.  Spending huge here for some time.

CO-03 – DCCC decreased from $330K to $250K.  NRCC increased from $270K to $340K.  I actually suspect that Salazar may be out in front a bit here.

FL-02 – DCCC spent $150K here this week, its first significant spending to date.  NRCC decreased from $400K to $155K.  Republicans must be feeling very good here.

FL-22 – No spending from either side amidst incredibly well funded candidates.  Polls show a toss-up.  I won’t argue.

GA-02 – DCCC increased from $150K to $180K.  NRCC increased from $120K to $160K.  Bishop may have a modest, stable lead.

HI-01 – Both parties maintained their level of investment, with DCCC at $160K and NRCC at $130K.  Seems like a stable race that could go either way.

IL-17 – DCCC increased from $320K to $390K.  NRCC increased from $150K to $440K.  Part of the emerging Democratic firewall.

IN-09 – DCCC increased from $270K to $450K.  NRCC stable at $200K.  Part of the emerging Democratic firewall.

MA-10 – DCCC increased from $130K to $160K.  NRCC decreased from $310K to $275K.  Dems seem relatively unconcerned here.  I take that as a good sign.

MI-01 – DCCC decreased from $270K to $250K.  NRCC increased from $210K to $245K.  This could be a big surprise Dem victory.

MI-07 – DCCC increased from $220K to $300K.  NRCC increased from $210K to $230K.  Another Dem firewall district.

MD-01 – DCCC decreased from $360K to $310K.  NRCC increased from $355K to $370K.  Kratovil is amazing to even be in this thing.

MO-04 – DCCC increased from $227K to $350K.  NRCC stable at $280K.  Yet another firewall disctrict.

MS-01 – DCCC maintained its investment at $230K.  NRCC decreased from $300K to $200K.  Republicans may be feeling good about this one.

ND-AL – DCCC maintained its $255K investment.  NRCC decreased from $240K to $170K.  Probably a modest but stable lead for Berg.

NH-02 – DCCC increased its investment 10-fold, from $34K to $340K.  NRCC maintained its $130K investment.  Dems may sense some momentum here, and are clearly all in.

NM-01 – DCCC increased from $115K to $370K.  NRCC maintained $160K investment.  Another firewall district for Democrats.

NY-19 – DCCC spent $90K here this week, its first spending to date.  Nothing from the NRCC.  I suspect both parties are reluctant to dive headlong into big NYC media buys.  Polls show a very close race.

NY-20 – DCCC increased from $110K to $230K.  NRCC decreased from $200K to $175K.  I suspect Murphy still has a decent lead.

NY-23 – DCCC increased from $160K to $220K.  NRCC spent $175K, its first spending to date.  Not sure why Republicans did not spend here previously.

OH-06 – DCCC increased from $65K to $290K.  NRCC increased from $100K to $130K.  This one is emerging as a significant concern, and part of the firewall.

OH-16 – DCCC stable at $295K.  NRCC decreased from $427K to $332K.  Renacci may be taking control a little here.

OH-18 – DCCC increased from $270K to $620K.  NRCC decreased from $550K to $315K.  One of the most heavily sought after districts in the country.

OR-05 – DCCC doubled its investment from $230K to $470K.  NRCC decreased its investment from $270K to $100K.  Republicans may be feeling good about this one (UPDATE – or maybe they’re bailing out if today’s Elway poll is believed).

PA-07 – DCCC spent $250K here this week, its first spending this week.  NRCC upped its spending from $45K to $70K.  Nice to see Dem investment, but I suspect Meehan is ahead.

PA-10 – DCCC increased from $140K to $170K.  NRCC decreased from $220K to $190K.  I fear that Marino may have a modest lead.

PA-11 – DCCC increases from $35K to $200K, putting this race back on the table.  Republicans maintain investment at $155K.  Kanjorski back from the dead.

PA-12 – DCCC increased from $250K to $400K.  NRCC decreased from $280K to $260K.  This is another firewall district, despite special election result.

SC-05 – DCCC decreased from $270K to $230K.  NRCC increased from $200K to $300K.  Spratt may be faring better than many think.

SD-AL – DCCC spent $80K here this week, its first spending to date.  NRCC decreased from $226K to $150K.  Noem is clearly making a race of it.

TN-04 – DCCC increased from $110K to $175K.  NRCC decreased from $310K to $220K.  I’m guessing Davis still has a modest lead.

TX-23 – DCCC decreased from $235K to $170K.  NRCC decreased from $265K to $245K.  Rodriguez may have a modest but stable lead here.

VA-02 – DCCC increased from $150K to $180K, while NRCC decreased from $150K to $130K.  Rigell probably has a modest but stable lead.

VA-05 – DCCC increased from $95K to $230K.  NRCC maintained $185K pace.  Real vote of confidence in Periello from the Dems here.

WA-03 – DCCC increased from $280K to $500K.  NRCC decreased from $310K to $275K.  Dems have been going after this district hard for a long time.

WI-07 – DCCC increased from $170K to $190K, while NRCC decreased from $155K to $140K.  Duffy probably has a small but stable lead.

WV-01 – DCCC increased from $250K to $330K.  NRCC increased from $190K to $220K.  Part of the Democratic firewall.

Head Scratchers (3D, 1R):

GA-08 – DCCC still spending a token $10K.  NRCC maintained its spending at about $75K.  I would have guessed Marshall was ahead, but Landmark Communications says Scott up big.  

IL-10 – DCCC increased from $125K to $670K.  NRCC maintained its token $50K spending.  I would suspect Seals is ahead, but We Ask America says different.

NV-03 – DCCC spent its typical $400K.  No spending from the NRCC here this week.  Truly do not know what to make of it.  Early voting may be telling Republicans they are either way ahead or behind.

PA-08 – NRCC continued its token $40K spending.  Still nothing from the DCCC.  I’m hesitating to downgrade this only because of the Penn poll showing Murphy up.

Lean Retention (21D, 1R):

AZ-07 – DCCC cut its spending for Grijalva from $60K to $30K.  Nothing from the NRCC.  I think this was a good wakeup call and nothing more.

CA-11 – DCCC made huge increase in spending from $50K to $350K.  NRCC continued its token $50K spending.   Seems the Dems are trying to put this one away.

CA-20 – DCCC increased its spending from $40K to $115K.  A little disconcerting, but probably just precautionary.  Nothing from the NRCC.

CO-07 – DCCC spent $164K here this week, its first spending to date.  Appears precautionary for now.  Nothing from the NRCC.

FL-25 – DCCC spent $362K here this week, a huge increase.  Encouraging, but the NRCC still has not felt the need to get involved.

IA-01 – DCCC did a $14K media production here this week, probably to counteract big outside spending.  Nothing from the NRCC.

IA-02 – DCCC spent $215K here this week.  Nothing from the NRCC.  This is probably the most endangered of the IA seats.

IA-03 – DCCC continued its weekly spending in the $125K range.  Nothing from the NRCC.  Boswell is in control.

IL-14 – DCCC made huge increase in spending from $75K to $400K.  NRCC maintained its token $50K spending.  Like CA-11, Dems are going for the jugular here.

IN-02 – DCCC increased its spending from $190K to $220K.  Republicans maintained spending at $80K.  Donnelly seems to be ahead.

KY-06 – DCCC spent a modest $140K, while the NRCC stopped spending this week.  I suspect Chandler has a high single digit lead or maybe better.

NC-07 – DCCC reduced its investment to $60K from $80K.  NRCC increased its investment from $45K to $75K.  Spending is not reflective of a great pickup opportunity.  

MN-01 – DCCC spent $125K here this week, its first spending to date.  NRCC decreased from $180K to $160K.  Dems probably just being cautious here.

MS-04 – DCCC still has not spent here.  NRCC decreased from $175K to $140K.  I suspect Taylor has a stable lead.

NC-08 – DCCC increased from $250K to $375K.  Still nothing from the NRCC.  I suspect this is precautionary to make up for the usual, sloppy Kissell fundraising.

NC-11 – DCCC spent $95K here this week, its first spending to date.  Nothing from the NRCC.  Again I suspect it is precautionary from the DCCC.

NJ-03 – NRCC increased its token spending from $30K to $45K.  Nothing from the DCCC.  Polls show this one close, but I am skeptical given lack of spending from both sides.

OH-13 – DCCC has stopped spending here this week.  NRCC not spending on self-funder Ganley.  Sutton is in good shape.

NY-24 – DCCC increased its spending from $190K to $230K.  NRCC increased from $70K to $80K. Arcuri seems to be ahead.

VA-09 – DCCC has never spent here.  This is the NRCC’s Moby Dick, as it increases from $180K to $200K.  Boucher seems to have the lead.

VA-11 – DCCC spent $240K here this week, buying its first TV ads.  Nothing from the NRCC.  It’s a big buy, but it’s an expensive district.  Probably precautionary.

WA-02 – DCCC spent $260K here this week, its first spending to date.  Nothing from the NRCC.  Virtually the same analysis of WA-02.

This is the third in my five-week series focusing on House independent expenditures and what they tell us about the races.  This one should be much better than the previous ones because I have now taken into account not just whether the party committees are spending in a particular district, but how much and for how long.  The Republicans have relatively few seats in the bag compared to the apocalyptic conventional wisdom that this is the mother of all wave elections.  I would generously give them 17 – all of the ones listed in the first two categories below.  At the same time, the Republicans have genuinely put a lot of seats in play.  One or both parties has made I.E.’s in 73 districts – 68 Democratic and 5 Republican.  That is the problem for the Democrats – a broad playing field that is modestly expanding week by week.  The problem for the Republicans though, which will probably keep them from running up huge numbers, is that they are bogged down in pitch battles over seats that were seen as goners according to the early conventional wisdom (MD-01, MS-01, NM-02, and VA-05 to name a few).  Republicans are spending hundreds of thousands weekly on these types of districts.  The fact that these deeply endangered Democratic incumbents have refused to say die two weeks out is good news for the Democrats, as it focuses resources on those races instead of broadening the playing field even further.  All in all, I expect Republicans to take the House with a net gain of 40-55 seats.  I would love to be pleasantly surprised, but I don’t expect to be.  In any event, here is your weekly I.E. analysis:

Goners (9D, 2R)

AR-02 – Nothing from either side.

DE-AL – Nothing from either side.

IL-11 – DCCC has done nothing.  NRCC has been spending about $30K per week.

IN-08 – DCCC has done nothing.  NRCC had been spending but stopped this week.

KS-03 – Nothing from either side.

LA-02 – Nothing from either side.

LA-03 – Nothing from either side.

NY-29 – Nothing from either side.

OH-01 – One small, token ad buy from the DCCC.  Nothing from the NRCC.

OH-15 – Same shit, different district.

TN-06 – Nothing from either side.

“I’m not quite dead yet” (10D, 0R)

CO-04 – DCCC has not spent a dime here, yet the NRCC spent over $400K this week.

FL-02 – Exactly the same story as CO-04.  

FL-08 – DCCC has done nothing, and the NRCC spent over $200K this week.  Actually surprised it was not more given Grayson’s cash advantage.  Webster may be in good shape.

FL-24 – Exactly the same story as FL-08.

NH-01 – Still nothing from the DCCC, but the NRCC is spending over $300K per week.

PA-03 – Both parties have made persistent, small ad buys here, although the DCCC’s have declined.  Does not look good for Dahlkemper.

PA-11 – The DCCC seems to be waving the white flag here, reducing its ad buy from over $100K to $34K this week.  But the NRCC is still spending over $100K per week here.

TN-08 – Herron has only a faint pulse.  DCCC has not spent a dime here, but the NRCC still spent over $100K this week, although it reduced its buy.

TX-17 – The DCCC has not spent anything here either.  The NRCC has significantly increased its ad buys for the past two weeks, but they are still slightly under $100K.

WI-08 – The DCCC spent $45K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $100K.  Looks uphill for Kagen.

Battlegrounds (31D, 1R)

AL-02 – Both parties pumped over $200K into this district this week.  Dueling internal polls.

AR-01 – DCCC just dumped over $400K into this race this week, while the NRCC spent over $250K.  Sorry Mark Penn, but this is a low single digit race and not a 12-pointer.

AZ-01 – Both parties spent over $200K each in this district this week.  Rumors of Kirkpatrick’s demise may be exaggerated.

AZ-05 – DCCC spent about $250K in this race this week, while the NRCC went for the jugular with about $375K.  Dueling internal polls.

CO-03 – DCCC spent $350K here this week, while the NRCC spent $275K.  NRCC poll showed a tie.

FL-22 – Nothing from either side, but huge fundraising from both candidates.  Dueling internal polls.

HI-01 – DCCC spent over $160K here this week, while the NRCC spent $120K in its first week of spending to date.  Polls consistently show a very tight race.

IL-17 – DCCC spent over $300K here this week, while the NRCC spent $150K.  This one is the real deal.  Hare should win it if he can lift Dem turnout just a little.

IN-09 – DCCC spent about $275K here this week, while the NRCC spent $215K.  Classic battleground.  No polling for a while.

MA-10 – NRCC must like what they see here, busting out over $300K this week.  DCCC spent about $150K.  Still have not seen a poll of this race.

MD-01 – Both parties spent in the mid $300’s here this week.  Kratovil is doing an amazing job of hanging in there.

MI-01 – DCCC spent about $275K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $200K.  Toss-up race, as several recent polls have shown.

MI-07 – Both parties spent just over $200K here this week.  Another pure toss-up.

MO-04 – DCCC spent $225K here this week, while the NRCC spent $280K.  Skelton seems to be in a real fight, but there is a dearth of recent polling.

MS-01 – DCCC spent about $215K here this week, while the NRCC spent nearly $300K(!).  Like Kratovil, Childers is doing a great job of pulling a Houdini act so far.

ND-AL – Look who’s back from the dead.  Pomeroy has both parties spending $200K plus this week after weeks of silence from the DCCC.

NM-02 – Both parties spent just under $200K here this week.  Like Kratovil, Teague is a red-district freshman with unusual staying power.

NV-03 – One of the hottest districts in the country.  Both parties’ expenditures approached $400K this week.  Pure toss-up.

NY-19 – Neither party has deigned to spend in the NYC media market on this one.  Public polls paint a pretty clear picture of a toss-up race.

OH-16 – Huge battleground.  DCCC spent $300K this week, while the NRCC spent over $400K.  Like Kratovil and Teague, impressive staying power for Boccieri in red district.

OH-18 – Republicans see blood in the water here, spending well over $500K here this week.  DCCC spent about $370K.  SEIU pitching in for Team Red does not help Space.

OR-05 – Both parties spent well over $200K here this week.  Sleeper battleground seat.  NRCC poll showed a virtual tie.

PA-10 – DCCC spent $140K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $200K.  Amazing that a guy like Marino can even be in a race like this, but that’s the kind of year it is.

PA-12 – Both parties spent in the mid-to-high $200K range here this week.  Republicans only started spending here this week.  They may see an opening in spite of the May result.

SC-05 – DCCC spent $170K here this week, while the NRCC spent $200K.  Spratt is in a serious fight, but no polling for a while.

TN-04 -DCCC has only spent about $100K, but the NRCC spent a whopping $310K here this week.  DeJarlais internal shows a 5 point lead.

TX-23 – Both parties spent in the mid-$200K range this week.  This one should be very close.  Have not seen any polling for a while.

VA-02 – Both parties spent in the mid-$100K range this week.  Nye has done a good job of hanging around in this one.

VA-05 – The DCCC is still spending here, although its latest ad buy was under $100K.  The NRCC spent about $185K this week.  Periello is still very much alive, but behind.

WA-03 – DCCC spent nearly $280K this week here, while the NRCC spent over $300K.  No, Survey USA, this is not a double digit race.

WI-07 – DCCC spent $175K here this week, while the NRCC spent about $155K.  This one is probably competitive, although I suspect Duffy is ahead by single digits.

WV-01 – DCCC spent $250K here this week, while the NRCC spent nearly $200K.  Manchin’s recent surge could help Olivieri.

Head Scratchers (6D, 1R)

CA-11 – Both parties spent about $50K here this week.  I suspect McNerney is up, but as usual a Survey USA poll creates confusion.  

IL-10 – DCCC spent $125K here this week, while the NRCC spent $55K.  Mirror image partisan polls with double digit leads for either candidate have my head spinning.

NH-02 – DCCC spent a paltry $35K here last week, while the NRCC spent $128K.  My sense has been that Bass is ahead, but that screwy UNH poll has me doubting myself.

NY-23 – Doheny internal shows a double digit race in his favor.  Siena shows a double digit race in Owens’s favor.  The NRCC has spent nothing.  The DCCC spent $160K this week.  Huh?

PA-07 – Polls have this one close, but the DCCC has not spent a dime.  The NRCC has made small, sub-$50K ad buys.

PA-08 – Same shit, different district.  Cannot figure these two districts out.

SD-AL – DCCC has not spent here in spite of Noem’s enormous 3Q haul.  DCCC internal showed a double digit SHS lead, while Rasmussen showed a 3-point Noem lead.

Lean Retention (21D, 1R)

AZ-07 – DCCC spent about $60K here this week, which is disconcerting.  Until the NRCC starts spending, I will assume it is precautionary.

CA-20 – DCCC spent about $40K here this week.  I view it the same way as AZ-07.

FL-25 – DCCC spent $75K on advertising on 10/5 and cut that to $18K on 10/12.  Not a good sign for Garcia.

GA-02 – DCCC spent $150K here this week, while the NRCC spent $100K.  Does not seem like an all hands on deck effort for the Republicans yet.

GA-08 – DCCC is spending virtually nothing here, while the NRCC spent about $85K this week.  I suspect Marshall is ahead.  Otherwise, both parties would be investing more.    

IA-02 – DCCC spent over $90K here this week, which is disconcerting.  But the NRCC has not taken an interest yet, so I will wait and see.

IA-03 – DCCC spent nearly $130K here this week, but the NRCC has never engaged.

IL-14 – DCCC spent $90K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $50K.  DCCC internal showed a double digit Foster lead.

IN-02 – DCCC spent $190K here this week, while the NRCC spent $80K.  Like GA-02, seems like a tepid level of investment from the Republicans.

KY-06 – Both parties spent about $100K here this week.  Does not seem like an inspired effort from the Republicans.

MN-01 – NRCC invested about $180K here this week after targeting the race last week, but the Dems have not yet felt the need to reciprocate.  

MS-04 – NRCC invested $176K here this week, but nothing from the Dems yet.  This one could be real trouble.  Taylor is sub-Coakley in the hubris department here.

NC-07 – NRCC has made modest, $40K weekly ad buys here.  The DCCC finally started spending this week ($75K).  Seems like McIntyre is in decent shape.

NC-08 – DCCC has invested over $200K per week here, but that is probably just to counteract Kissell’s sorry fundraising.  Nothing from the NRCC yet.

NJ-03 – DCCC has done nothing here.  Modest, sub-$30K, weekly buys from the NRCC.  Have to believe that Adler is up here.

NM-01 – DCCC spent $115K here this week, while the NRCC spent over $160K.  Could be trouble, but I will wait to see if the DCCC ups the ante next week.

NY-20 – DCCC spent $110K here this week, while the NRCC spent $172K.  Like NM-01, I will wait to see if the DCCC feels the need to pick up the pace.

NY-24 – DCCC spent nearly $200K here this week, but the NRCC only spent about $70K.  Not an inspiring effort from the NRCC here.  Arcuri is probably up.

OH-06 – DCCC spent $65K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $100K.  Both parties seem to be just feeling out this race at this point.

OH-13 – DCCC has reduced its ad buy from $220K on 9/21 to about $65K this week.  Dems have to be feeling good about this one.

VA-09 – The DCCC has not spent here, and polls have consistently given Boucher double digit leads.  Nevertheless, the NRCC upped its ad buy to $180K this week.

VA-11 – The DCCC has been spending token amounts of money primarily on mailers.  Nothing from the NRCC.

As to all of the other races where there have been no I.E.’s on either side, including AZ-08, CA-47, CO-07, CT-04, CT-05, ID-01, KY-03, MI-09, NY-01, NY-13, PA-04, and WA-02, I am expecting retention at this point.  I’m sure there will be some surprises, but I’m not going to predict them here.  I expect the overwhelming majority of the pickups to come from races targeted by one or both party committees.

This is the second in what will be hopefully be a weekly segment, wherein I attempt to read the tea leaves of the independent expenditures made by the NRCC and the DCCC.  The battle lines have become much clearer this week, with both parties significantly expanding their targeted seats.  As a result, I have been able to come to more resolute opinions about what the behaviors of the party committees mean.  My opinions are probably ham handed and wrong, but I feel more resolute about them.  Without further ado:

Battlegrounds – Both parties engaged (36)

AL-02 – Dueling internals.  Still think Bright is slightly ahead.

AR-01 – Confident that Causey has made a race of this.  He may even be ahead now.

AZ-01 – Cook moved this to Lean R.  Republican polls show modest Gosar leads.

AZ-05 – Dueling internals, all very close.  Should be one of the closer races.

CA-11 – Very little reliable polling here.  Harmer is a good candidate.  Sleeper race.

CO-03 – Salazar destroyed Tipton just a few cycles ago.  Good chance he will win again.

FL-02 – Boyd awfully quiet in spite of two Southerland internals with double digit leads.

GA-08 – Dueling internals with big margins.  Somebody’s way off.  I think Marshall is ahead.

IL-14 – Unrebutted Republican polling suggests to me that Hultgren leads.

IL-17 – A good campaign should win this one for Hare.  A lot of unmotivated Dems here.

IN-02 – Polls reassuring for Donnelly.  Walorski does not seem like the best candidate.

IN-09 – Slightly dusty Republican poll showed a dead heat.  Seems like a true toss-up.

KY-06 – Race clearly tightening but Chandler seems to be ahead.

MA-10 – Don’t know how Perry survives the strip search scandal with the general electorate.

MD-01 – Kratovil hanging in there.  Could be the surprise of election night.

MI-01 – Dems investing a lot of money here.  They must see something worth pursuing.  

MI-07 – Schauer seems to be coming back on Walberg.

MO-04 – Skelton is in for the fight of his life here.

MS-01 – Polling suggests that Nunnellee is modestly ahead.

NH-02 – Public polling shows a surprisingly close race here.  Bass should win though.

NM-02 – Every poll of this race has been tight.  Teague is a strong candidate.

NV-03 – Mason-Dixon has been showing modest Titus leads.

NY-20 – Murphy seems to have a clear but surmountable lead here.

NY-24 – Similar to NY-20.  Clear but surmountable lead for Arcuri.

OH-16 – Boccieri seems to be coming back here.  Trajectory like MI-07.

OH-18 – Gibbs must be clawing his way into it for Dems to invest here.

OR-05 – Republican poll shows a toss-up race.  I think Schrader is slightly ahead.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper is in big trouble.  Would greatly surprise me if she won.

PA-11 – Surprised the Dems are spending anything here.  Kanjorski seems to be behind.

SC-05 – This is a very serious challenge for the veteran Spratt.  He could definitely lose.

VA-02 – Nye seems to be a little behind.

VA-05 – Glad the Dems are playing here, but Periello is behind.

WA-03 – Interesting news that Herrera is barely lifting a finger.  Heck seems to be closing a little.

WI-07 – Duffy seems to be ahead here.

WI-08 – Atrocious polling for Kagen.  This seems uphill for him.

WV-01 – No polling for a while.  Oliviero is the right kind of Dem to win here.

The Goners – Races where Dems are running behind and neither party committee is engaging (6)

AR-02 – After November 2, Elliott will not have to worry about whether to vote for Pelosi.

KS-03 – No polling, but Yoder must be in control.

LA-03 – Sangisetty will not have to sweat that Pelosi vote either.

NY-29 – Thanks Eric Massa.  Love ya!  Tickle, tickle…

OH-01 – Consistent, double digit leads for Chabot.

TN-06 – Carter will not have to sweat that Pelosi vote either.

The Triage List – Races where Dems are running behind, the NRCC is spending, and the DCCC is not (11)

CO-04 – Markey behind or tied in every poll.

FL-08 – Grayson may have done himself in with “Taliban Dan” ad.

FL-24 – Kosmas way down in several polls, statistically tied in her own.

IL-11 – Every poll shows a big lead for Kinzinger.

IN-08 – Big lead for Bucshon in internal poll.

ND-AL – Pomeroy holding his own on huge warchest, but seems to be slightly behind.

NH-01 – Shea-Porter down big in public polls, but Guinta is a poor candidate.

PA-07 – Could be a triage candidate, but the last public poll was close.

PA-08 – Murphy down double digits in last public poll.  Seems like DCCC would spend here.

TN-08 – Republican polls show solid Fincher lead.

TX-17 – Edwards down in his own internals.

Ambitious Republican Targets – Races where Dems are running ahead, NRCC is spending, and DCCC is not (7)

MN-01 – Recent addition to NRCC target list.  Must be tightening.

NC-07 – This one is definitely tightening, but DCCC has not stepped in yet.

NJ-03 – Dems may be milking Adler cash advantage before getting in.

NM-01 – Heinrich seems to be ahead, but NRCC has recently engaged.

OH-06 – Like MN-01, another recent addition to the target list.  Probably tightening.

PA-10 – Carney seems to be slightly ahead against damaged Marino.

SD-AL – Same shit, different district.

VA-09 – Boucher seems relatively safe, but NRCC keeps getting after him.

Emerging Democratic Firewall – Races where Dems are running ahead, DCCC is spending, and NRCC is not (7)

GA-02 – Self-inflicted wounds and poor fundraising force DCCC to spend here.

IA-03 – Zaun seems to be damaged, but Dems clearly don’t feel out of the woods.

NC-08 – Kissell is an awful fundraiser, but I suspect he is ahead.

OH-13 – May be able to stop worrying about this one given Ganley’s S&M scandal.

PA-12 – NRCC understandably reluctant to invest in Tim Burns again.

TX-23 – Surprised NRCC has not made a run at this.  Rodriguez may be ahead.

VA-11 – Connolly did not beat Fimian THAT overwhelmingly in 2008.

Confident Republicans – Races where Dems are running behind, DCCC is spending, and NRCC is not (2)

NY-23 – Doheny poll showed a big lead, but I would expect the NRCC to spend due to Owens $$$ advantage.

OH-15 – Stivers probably does not need the help.

No News is Good News – Pundit-declared, endangered Dem seats where neither party committee has made I.E.’s (16)

AZ-08 – NRCC has been pretty ambitious but has not gone after Giffords.

CA-47 – Lack of NRCC investment leads me to believe Sanchez is ahead.

CO-07 – No attention for Perlmutter from the NRCC.

CT-04 – Given the lack of NRCC investment, I suspect Himes is up more than 2.

CT-05 – I believe Murphy’s internal, not that weird Merriman poll.

FL-22 – Huge candidate money on both sides.  Klein is endangered.

IA-02 – No help for Miller-Meeks yet from the NRCC.

ID-01 – Consistent double digit leads for Minnick.

KY-03 – Yarmuth seems to be comfortably ahead.

MI-09 – No NRCC investment in spite of Rossman Group poll showing Peters trailing.

NY-01 – No polling here for a while, but lack of NRCC investment is comforting.

NY-13 – McMahon and Grimm internals show comfortable McMahon leads.

NY-19 – Neither party is spending, yet two public polls show a tight race.  Strange.

PA-04 – Dusty DCCC poll showed Altmire very comfortably ahead.

TN-04 – Davis up double digits in his internal.  Lack of NRCC involvement comforting.

WA-02 – No NRCC help for Koster so far.  Larsen seems to be ahead.

The Endangered Species – Dems on Offense (5)

DE-AL – No investment by either party.  Carney seems to be well ahead here.

FL-25 – Refreshing that DCCC is spending here.  Rivera is a loose cannon.

HI-01 – DCCC is spending here.  NRCC will surreptitiously fund the state party if anything.  

IL-10 – Only Dem target where both parties have engaged.  Seals seems to be ahead.

LA-02 – No investment by either party.   Cao down 11 in DCCC internal taken before Obama ad.

I went through the Independent Expenditure reports for September to find out which House races the parties were making I.E.’s in.  Below is my armchair, sound byte analysis of the races in which the party committees have made I.E.’s (and some hyped races where they have not).

UPDATE: I have updated to provide CoH comparisons for all races, and to include some of the good information provided in the comments.

The Hot List – Races where both committees have made I.E.’s.

AL-02 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Bright.  DCCC internal showed 9 point lead.  I suspect he is only slightly ahead.

AR-01 – 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Crawford.  Causey seems to have turned this into a battle.

AZ-05 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Mitchell.  This seems very, very tight.

CA-11 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to McNerney.  Suspect this one is very tight.  Whitman/Fiorina implosion may help.

IL-10 – CoH dead even.  Seals internal shows 13 point lead.  I suspect Dold is behind with upside potential.

IL-14 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Foster.  Foster is probably behind for DCCC to spend here.

MD-01 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kratovil.  This may be the surprise of the night if Kratovil holds on.  Seems close.

MI-01 – CoH dead even.  McDowell’s poll showing a tossup is credible in light of both parties’ investments.

MI-07 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Schauer.  Schauer is probably behind but seems to be improving.

MO-04 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Skelton.  Must be real trouble for him.

MS-01 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Childers.   I suspect Childers is behind by single digits.

NY-24 – CoH dead even. Polls show a modest Arcuri lead.

OH-16 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Boccieri.  Glad we’re even playing here, but I have to believe Boccieri is behind.

PA-03 – 10 to 1 CoH edge to Dahlkemper.  Playing from behind here.

PA-11 – 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kanjorski.  Playing from behind here too, but I’m amazed we’re still playing at all!

SC-05 – 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Spratt.  Seems like real trouble for Spratt.

WA-03 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Heck.  Dems playing from behind here, but Heck seems to be closing.

WI-07 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Duffy.  Duffy seems to be ahead here, but I suspect by single digits.

WV-01 – CoH dead even.  I suspect Oliviero is ahead, but McKinley may have upside.  

Races where DCCC has made I.E.’s but not NRCC.

FL-25 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Rivera.  Love that the Dems are going after this.  I actually think we’re slightly ahead.

GA-02 – CoH dead even.  Lackluster fundraising from ethically challenged Bishop.

HI-01 – CoH dead even.  GOPVOTER notes that the NRCC delivers only stealth support in HI.

IA-03 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Boswell.  If it’s competitive, why aren’t the Republicans in?  If not, why are the Dems?

IL-17 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Hare.  Had this one pegged as a sleeper early on.

MA-10 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Keating.  Surprised that Dems seem to be feeling the heat here.  

NC-08 – 3.5 to 1 CoH edge to Kissell.  Not sure this says anything except that Kissell is a horrible fundraiser.

OH-13 – 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to self-funder Ganley.  Ganley’s little, um, problem may take care of this one.

VA-02 – 6 to 1 CoH edge to Nye.  I suspect we’re behind here.

VA-11 – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Connolly.  This is a real sleeper.

Races where NRCC has made I.E.’s but not DCCC.

AZ-01 – 20 to 1(!) CoH edge for Kirkpatrick.  Kirkpatrick has to get by on that for awhile, even in a tight race.

FL-02 – 9 to 1 CoH edge to Boyd.  Similar dynamic to AZ-01.  I bet it’s tight.

FL-08 – 13 to 1 CoH edge to Grayson.  Dumb Grayson ad a game changer.

FL-24 – 11 to 1 CoH edge to Kosmas.  Somewhat like AZ-01 and FL-02.

GA-08 – 4.5 to 1 CoH edge to Marshall.  Seems like the DCCC needs to get in this one.

IL-11 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Halvorson.  Potential triage victim.

IN-02 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Donnelly.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is in real trouble.

IN-08 – 1.7 to 1 CoH edge to Van Haaften.  Pleased that Republicans even feel the need to spend here.

IN-09 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Hill.  Have yet to see the evidence that he is in trouble.

KY-06 – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Chandler.  Ditto.

NC-07 – 9 to 1 CoH edge to McIntyre.  I suspect Pantano really is closing (but not ahead as per SUSA).

ND-AL – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Pomeroy.  I suspect he’s behind.

NJ-03 – 4 to 1 CoH edge to Adler.  This appears to be closing, so DCCC will probably get in.

NM-01 – 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Heinrich.  Heinrich seems to have a persistent, modest lead.

NV-03 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Titus.  atdleft tells us DCCC is about to make I.E.’s here.

NY-20 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Murphy.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is endangered.

OR-05 – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Schrader.  Seems to be a pretty tight race.

PA-07 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Meehan.  Surprised that the RNCC is even bothering to spend here.

PA-08 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Murphy.  This is headed in the wrong direction, so I hope the DCCC gets in this month.

PA-10 – 70 to 1(!) CoH edge to Carney.  I suspect he is slightly ahead now.

SD-AL – 2.5 to 1 CoH edge to Herseth-Sandlin.  She seems to have taken a firm lead.

TN-08 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Herron.  I suspect the RNCC is only spending to counteract that advantage.

TX-17 – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Edwards.  Very similar to TN-08, but I suspect Edwards is in even more trouble.

VA-05 – 8 to 1 CoH edge to Periello.  Actually also kind of similar to TN-08 and TX-17.

VA-09 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Boucher.  I have yet to see the evidence that he is endangered.

WI-08 – 11 to 1 CoH edge to Kagen.  I suspect Kagen is in bigger trouble than many think.

SSP “Toss-Up” or worse races where neither party has made I.E.’s.

AR-02 – 3 to 1 CoH edge to Griffin.  Democratic write-off.

CO-03 – 7.5 to 1 CoH edge to Salazar.  I suspect Salazar is not in as much trouble as partisan polling suggests.

CO-04 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Markey.  Possible triage victim.

DE-AL – 5 to 1 CoH edge to Carney.  Republican write-off.

FL-22 – 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Klein.  Both parties letting well-funded candidates slug it out.

ID-01 – 17 to 1 CoH edge to Minnick.  Republican write-off (at least so far).

KS-03 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Yoder.  Possible triage victim.

LA-02 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Cao.  Republican write-off?  Or are they going to provide stealth support a la HI-01?

LA-03 – CoH dead even.  Democratic write-off.

NH-01 – 3.5 to 1 CoH edge to Shea-Porter.  This was a late primary, so we’ll see what happens.

NH-02 – 1.4 to 1 CoH edge to Kuster.  I expect both parties to play here this month.

NM-02 – CoH dead even.  Like FL-22, both parties letting well-funded candidates slug it out.

NY-19 – CoH dead even.  Sorry PPP, but if Hall were down two, both parties would be in.  

NY-23 – 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Owens.  I suspect both parties are pretty confident that Owens wins the three-way.

NY-29 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Reed.  Democratic write-off.

OH-01 – CoH dead even.  Possible triage victim.

OH-15 – 1.3 to 1 CoH edge to Stivers.  Possible triage victim.  

TN-06 – 2 to 1 CoH edge to Black.  Democratic write-off.

TX-23 – 1.5 to 1 CoH edge to Rodriguez.  I suspect Rodriguez is in decent shape.  Polls were way off in 2006.

WA-02 – 7 to 1 CoH edge to Larsen.  Larsen may be in good shape.  Survey USA may have created a false narrative.

The Democrats who voted against Health Care Reform are very well situated for re-election, considering that they are almost all from red districts.  Those plucky kids who voted for it in tough districts, not so much.  Not going to comment on the overall political wisdom of the vote (who knows where we’d be if HCR had failed), but the numbers tell a pretty clear story and it is an interesting aspect of the coming election (at least to me).

Here are the “no” votes on HCR.  Of the 34, 20 are up in the latest poll.  Only 2 (Edwards and Nye) are down.  One (Space) is tied.  The other 11 are either not running or there is no polling.  

AL-02 – Bright – up 9 in DCCC poll.

AL-07 – Davis – not running.

AR-01 – Berry – not running.

AR-04 – Ross – up 18 in public polling.

ID-01 – Minnick – up 23 in public polling.

GA-08 – Marshall – up 6 in Republican internal.

GA-12 – Barrow – no polling.

IL-03 – Lipinski – no polling.

KY-06 – Chandler – up 14 in public polling.

LA-03 – Melancon – not running.

MA-09 – Lynch – no polling.

MD-01 – Kratovil – up 5 in Dem internal.

MN-07 – Peterson – no polling.

MO-04 – Skelton – up 12 in public poll.

MS-01 – Childers – up 5 in Dem internal.

MS-04 – Taylor – no polling.

NJ-03 – Adler – up 6 in public poll.

NC-07 – McIntyre – up 7 in public polling.

NC-08 – Kissell – up 17 in Dem internal.

NC-11 – Shuler – up 17 in Dem internal.

NM-02 – Teague – up 3 in public poll.

NY-13 – McMahon – up 33 in Dem internal.

NY-24 – Arcuri – up 13 in DCCC poll.

OH-18 – Space – tied in Republican internal.

OK-02 – Boren – up 34 in Dem internal.

PA-04 – Altmire – up 27 in DCCC poll.

PA-17 – Holden – no polling.

SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin – up 2 in public poll.

TN-04 – Davis – up 11 in Republican internal.

TN-08 – Tanner – not running.

TX-17 – Edwards – down 12 in Republican internal.

UT-02 – Matheson – no polling.

VA-02 – Nye – down 6 in Republican internal.

VA-09 – Boucher – up 10 in public poll.

By comparison, here are the 39 Democratic House members in Republican PVI districts who voted for the bill.  Of these, only 7 are up in the latest poll.  15 are down.  5 are tied.  The other 12 are either not running or there is no polling.

AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick – tied in Republican internal.

AZ-05 – Mitchell – down 6 in conservative poll.

AZ-08 – Giffords – tied in conservative poll.

AR-02 – Snyder – not running.

CA-11 – McNerney – up 1 in conservative poll.

CO-03 – Salazar – down 8 in conservative poll.

CO-04 – Markey – tied in Dem internal.

FL-02 – Boyd – down 15 in Republican internal.

FL-08 – Grayson – up 13 in Dem internal.

FL-24 – Kosmas – down 12 in Republican internal.

IL-08 – Bean – tied in conservative poll.

IL-11 – Halvorson – down 20 in conservative poll.

IL-14 – Foster – down 7 in conservative poll.

IN-02 – Donnelly – up 2 in conservative poll.

IN-08 – Ellsworth – not running.

IN-09 – Hill – up 7 in Republican internal.

KS-03 – Moore – not running.

MI-01 – Stupak – not running.

MI-07 – Schauer – down 8 in conservative poll.

MN-01 – Walz – no polling.

NY-19 – Hall – no polling.

NY-20 – Murphy – up 5 in conservative poll.

NY-23 – Owens – up 2 in conservative poll.

NY-29 – Massa – not running.

NC-02 – Etheridge – down 1 in public poll.

ND-AL – Pomeroy – down 9 in public poll.

OH-06 – Wilson – no polling.

OH-16 – Boccieri – down 14 in conservative poll.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper – down 14 in conservative poll.

PA-10 – Carney – down 15 in conservative poll.

PA-12 – Murtha – not running.

SC-05 – Spratt – tied in Republican internal.

TN-06 – Gordon – not running.

TX-23 – Rodriguez – down 6 in Republican internal.

TX-27 – Ortiz – no polling.

VA-05 – Periello – down 2 in Dem internal.

WV-01 – Mollohan – not running.

WV-03 – Rahall – up 16 in conservative poll.

WI-08 – Kagen – down 10 in conservative poll.

I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict that the Republicans pick up somewhere between 15 and 63 seats.

The 15 seats I am pretty confident Dems will lose (in alphabetical order):

AR-02 – Might have been competitive with Wills.

IA-03 – Two Republican polls have Zaun up and I believe he is.

KS-03 – Not sure how Moore switcheroo can work in an anti-incumbent year.

LA-03 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

MS-01 – Nunnellee internal has him up 8, and I tend to believe it.

NH-02 – Well-known Bass way ahead in polls.

NY-29 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

OH-01 – Multiple polls show Driehaus down double digits.  I believe that he is down, though maybe not by that much.

OH-15 – Logic leads me to believe Kilroy is in similar shape as Driehaus.  

PA-07 – Huge internal poll lead for Meehan.

PA-11 – Big internal poll lead for Barletta.  Kanjorski is addicted to putting his foot in his mouth.

TN-06 – Dems seem to be conceding this.

TX-17 – Edwards beating Flores makes no sense to me after tight 2008 race with unfunded Curnock.

VA-02 – I believe the Rigell poll showing him ahead.

VA-05 – I don’t think Periello is down 23 like SUSA says, but I do believe he’s down.

Touted races I am pretty confident Dems will win:

CT-04 – Monster fundraising for Himes.

ID-01 – Labrador down big in his own poll.

IN-02 – Big lead for Donnelly in pro-lifer poll.

IN-09 – Young significantly down in his own poll.

KY-06 – Big lead for Chandler in independent poll.

NC-08 – PPP showed Kissell ahead by 6.

NJ-03 – Independent poll featured on front page shows Adler ahead.

NY-13 – Internal poll for McMahon has him way ahead.

PA-12 – Don’t see why Burns would win the second time around.

TN-04 – Republican internal had Davis up 11.

TX-23 – Republican internal had Rodriguez up.

VA-09 – SUSA has Boucher up big.

WV-01 – Oliviero up big in internal.

Races where I just don’t know:

AL-02 – Would bet a current poll would be much closer than dusty Bright internal.

AR-01 – Woolridge sour grapes hurting Causey, who otherwise should win this.

AZ-01 – This is a tough district and maybe a sleeper, but Republicans are underfunded.

AZ-05 – My gut tells me Mitchell may lose.  Tough, wealthy district.

AZ-08 – Hope Jesse Kelly is right with his primary poll.  He would be the easiest to beat.

CA-11 – Another sleeper.  Harmer is a real go-getter for the Republicans.

CO-04 – Tend to believe we’ll lose this, but no polling confirms it.

FL-02 – I’m somewhat doubtful of Southerland internal with him up 15.

FL-08 – No friggin’ clue.  Huge money advantage but internal from also ran Republican Todd Long shows Grayson down.

FL-22 – This will be one of the most expensive races in the country.

FL-24 – Crowded Republican primary may help Kosmas in tough district.  No polling.

GA-08 – Tend to feel good about Marshall, but would love to see a poll.

IL-11 – Multiple partisan polls show Kinzinger up.  I tend to believe it, but not quite convinced.

IL-14 – Big $$$ advantage for Foster.

IL-17 – Not in love with Hare’s response to Schilling internal showing himself up big.

IN-08 – Republicans should win this one, but Bucshon isn’t much of a candidate.

MA-10 – What a mess with all the third party candidates.  Would love to see a poll.

MD-01 – Conflicting polling, but I’m not feeling good about this one.

MI-01 – Tough call with Benishek in, knock on wood.  Weak fundrasing for McDowell.

MI-07 – Walberg internals have him up, but I’m not quite convinced.

MN-01 – Tend to think Walz will be OK.  Demmer raised serious $$$ last quarter though.

MO-04 – Tend to think Skelton will pull this out, but would love to see a poll.

NC-11 – Conflicting polling data.  Tend to think Shuler will be OK.

ND-AL – Last Rasmussen poll tight.  Pomeroy was reddest-district Dem to vote yeah on HCR.

NH-01 – Shea-Porter ahead in recent polling.

NM-01 – Conflicting polling.  My sense is that Heinrich is ahead by high single digits.

NM-02 – All polling on this has been tight.

NV-03 – Titus ahead in latest M/D poll.

NY-01 – This will be another enormously expensive race.

NY-19 – No friggin’ clue.  Would love to see a poll.  Self-funder Hayworth has $$$ advantage.

NY-20 – Was feeling good about this, but then Gibson came up with monster $$$ for Q2.

NY-23 – Have a feeling Hoffman will fuck this up for the Republicans one way or the other.

NY-24 – Everybody’s writing Arcuri off, but would love to see a poll.

OH-13 – We’ll see if money really IS everything.

OH-16 – Not sure if I believe Republican poll showing big Renacci lead.

OH-18 – Republican internal with race tied does not impress me much.

OR-05 – No polling but Republicans are talking this one up.

PA-03 – Conflicting polls here.  Wouldn’t be surprised if it is close.

PA-04 – Tend to like Altmire’s chances, but no polling so far.

PA-08 – Worried about this one, but no polling.

PA-10 – Huge $$$ lead for Carney.

SC-05 – PPP showed a small lead for Spratt some time ago.

SD-AL – Not sure I believe Rasmussen and his big Noem lead, but not sure I disbelieve it either.

TN-08 – Impressive Fincher primary victory makes me less sanguine on this one.

VA-11 – Not sure I’m buying Fimian internal showing lead.

WA-03 – Dem Heck has big $$$ advantage.

WI-07 – Historically Dem district, but Lassa is playing catchup in fundraising.

WI-08 – Could be a sleeper.  Crowded Republican primary may help Kagen.

Below is an objective ranking of SSP’s competitive Democratic House seats.  This is similar to SSP’s “Vulnerability Index,” but adds cash on hand as a third factor in addition to PVI and 2008 margin of victory.  I ranked the 96 Democratic seats identified by SSP according to these three categories, and averaged the rankings.  It fits my intuitive sense of these races pretty well.  The most important two factors it fails to consider are (1) polling and (2) candidate strength/name recognition.  The rote application of my criteria created two obvious outliers: MS-04 (Taylor), which is way too high at 33, and NH-02 (OPEN), which is way too low at 85.  Otherwise, it seemed to work pretty well.  Here they are, with the two current, best-funded challengers for each party listed:

1. TN-06 – OPEN – Leming (D) v. Black (R) – Republicans have a massive $450K CoH head start, in addition to the district’s R+13 lean.

2. MD-01 – Kratovil (D) v. Harris (R) – Kratovil’s CoH advantage is only 1.47X in this R+13 district, which he won by <1% in 2008.  Harris internal has Harris up big.

3. AR-01 – OPEN – Causey (D) v. Crawford (R) – Currently Dem and Rep CoH is very close, but that is only because Crawford has been in the race much longer than the Dems.  R+8 district.

4. NY-29 – OPEN – Zeller (D) v. Reed (R) – Zeller starts off nearly $300K behind in CoH in this R+5 district.  

5. AR-02 – OPEN – Wills (D) v. Griffin (R) – Griffin has a 1.82X CoH advantage, mostly because he has been in the race much longer than Wills.  R+5 district.  

6. LA-03 – OPEN – Sangisetty (D) v. Landry (R) -Sangisetty actually has a 1.43X CoH advantage, which would probably surprise most people.  R+12 district.  Still no announcement from Hunt Downer.

7. IN-08 – OPEN – Van Haaften (D) v. Bucshon (R) – Van Haaften has a 1.19X CoH advantage, but Bucshon has been in the race much longer.  R+8 district.

8. AL-02 – Bright (D) v. Roby (R) – 3-to-1 Bright CoH advantage keeps this from being higher.  Bright won this R+16 seat by <1% in 2008.  Bright internal shows Bright way ahead.

9. ID-01 – Minnick (D) v. Ward (R) – 3-to-1 Minnick CoH advantage keeps this from being higher.  Minnick won this R+18 district by 1% in 2008.  

10. KS-03 – OPEN – Moore (D) v. Yoder (R) – Stephene Moore starts off with a nearly $500K CoH deficit in this R+3 district.

11. TN-08 – OPEN – Herron (D) v. Fincher (R) – Herron has 1.25X CoH advantage, but Fincher has been in the race much longer.  R+6 district.

12. MI-01 – OPEN – Saltonstall (D) v. Benishek (R) – Neither of these will be their parties’ candidates.  FWIW, Benishek has a 1.27X CoH advantage in this R+3 district.

13. NY-23 – Owens (D) v. Doheny (R) – Doheny has a 2.13X CoH advantage.  Owens won this R+1 district by 5% in a 2009 special election.

14. OH-15 – Kilroy (D) v. Stivers (R) – CoH is dead even in this D+1 district, which Kilroy won by <1% over Stivers in 2008.

15. VA-05 – Periello (D) v. McKelvey (R) – Massive fundraising quarter gives Periello a 3-1 CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by <1% in 2008.  PPP shows tossup race with Hurt.

16. MS-01 – Childers (D) v. Nunnellee (R) – Childers has a 2.38X CoH advantage in this R+14 district, which he won by nearly 11% in 2008.  Weird poll showed Childers slightly ahead.

17. NY-24 – Arcuri (D) v. Hanna (R) – Arcuri has only a 1.38X CoH advantage, even though Hanna only got into the race recently.  Arcuri beat Hanna by 4% in 2008 in this R+2 district.

18. VA-02 – Nye (D) v. Rigell (R) – Nye has a 1.71X CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by 5% over incumbent Thelma Drake in 2008.

19. NM-02 – Teague (D) v. Pearce (R) – Teague has a 1.31X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 12% in 2008.  Multiple polls show this race neck-and-neck.

20. PA-12 – VACANT – Critz (D) v. Burns (R) – Burns has a 1.18X CoH advantage in this R+1 district.  Polling shows a toss-up in the special election.

21. PA-03 – Dahlkemper (D) v. Huber (R) – Dahlkemper has a 2.87X CoH advantage in this R+3 district.  Her slim, 2.5% margin of victory over incumbent Phil English in 2008 keeps this high on the list.

22. AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) v. Schweikert (R) – Mitchell has a 2.27X CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by nearly 10% over Schweikert in 2008.

23. MI-07 – Schauer (D) v. Rooney (R) – Schauer has a better than 3-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 2% in 2008.  Walberg internal has Walberg up.

24. OH-01 – Driehaus (D) v. Chabot (R) – Driehaus has a 1.14X CoH advantage in this D+1 district.  Driehaus beat Chabot by 5% in 2008.  Weird FDL poll showed Chabot up big.

25. WV-01 – Mollohan (D) v. McKinley (R) – CoH is dead even in this R+9 district.  Mollohan was unopposed in 2008.  Recent polling shows Mollohan has his hands full in the primary.

26. NH-01 – Shea-Porter (D) v. Guinta (R) – Shea-Porter has a 1.38X CoH advantage in this D+0 district, which she won by 6% over former Rep Jeb Bradley in 2008.  Shea-Porter is lucky that Guinta is as poor a fundraiser as she is.  PPP shows a tossup.

27. TN-04 – Davis (D) v. Bailey (R) – Davis has a 2.21X CoH advantage in this R+13 district, which he won by 21% in 2008.  Davis’s fundraising is poor.

28. NY-19 – Hall (D) v. Hayworth (R) – Hayworth has a 1.19X CoH lead over Hall in this R+3 district, which Hall won by 17% in 2008.  Hall’s fundraising is pathetic.

29. CO-04 – Markey (D) v. Gardner (R) – Markey has a 2.32X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which she won by 12% over incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2008.

30. NC-08 – Kissell (D) v. Johnson (R) – In spite of dreadful fundraising, Kissell has a 1.87X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 11% over incumbent Robin Hayes in 2008.  PPP showed Kissell way ahead.

31. PA-07 – OPEN – Lentz (D) v. Meehan (R) – Meehan has a 1.45X CoH advantage in this D+3 district.

32. TX-17 – Edwards (D) v. Flores (R) – Edwards currently has a 29-to-1 CoH advantage, but only because Flores drained his resources on the primary/runoff.  R+20 district, which Edwards won by 7.5% in 2008.  

33. MS-04 – Taylor (D) v. Palazzo (R) – This is way too high.  Taylor has a 1.85X CoH advantage in this R+20 district.  However, he won by 49% in 2008.  Sloppy fundraising by Taylor.

34. NY-20 – Murphy (D) v. Gibson (R) – Murphy has a 12-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by <1% in a 2009 special election.

35. CA-11 – McNerney (D) v. Goehring (R) – McNerney has a 2.27X CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

36. FL-08 – Grayson (D) v. O’Donoghue (R) – Grayson has an awesome 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 4 over incumbent Ric Keller in 2008.  Dan Webster will have a lot of catching up to do.

37. FL-22 – Klein (D) v. West (R) – Klein has a 2.36X CoH advantage in this D+1 district.  Klein beat West by 9% in 2008.  West internal shows a tossup.

38. VA-11 – Connolly (D) v. Fimian (R) – Connolly has a 1.69X CoH advantage in this D+2 district.  Connolly beat Fimian by 12% in 2008.  Fimian internal has Fimian up 5.

39. MA-10 – OPEN – Keating (D) v. Perry (R) – The Scott Brown-backed Perry has a 1.12X CoH advantage in this D+5 district.

40. PA-10 – Carney (D) v. Marino (R) – Carney sports a 13-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+8 district, which he won by 13% in 2008.

41. AZ-08 – Giffords (D) v. Paton (R) – Giffords has a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which she won by 12% in 2008.

42. PA-04 – Altmire (D) v. Buchanan (R) – Altmire has an impressive 12-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 12% in 2008.

43. FL-24 – Kosmas (D) v. Miller (R) – Kosmas has a 3.3X CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which she won by 16% over incumbent Tom Feeney in 2008.

44. AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick (D) v. Gosar (R) – Kirkpatrick has a 4.68X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which she won by 16% in 2008.

45. SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) v. Curd (R) – Herseth-Sandlin has a 2.38X CoH advantage despite unimpressive fundraising.  She won this R+9 district by a whopping 35% in 2008.  Rasmussen has Herseth-Sandlin ahead.

46. OH-16 – Boccieri (D) v. Renacci (R) – Boccieri has a 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

47. NV-03 – Titus (D) v. Heck (R) – Titus has a 3.51X CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which she won by 5% over incumbent Jon Porter in 2008.  Mason-Dixon has Titus down.

48. GA-08 – Marshall (D) v. Hicks (R) – Marshall has a massive 17-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+10 district, which he won by 14.5% in 2008.

49. ND-AL – Pomeroy (D) v. Berg (R) – Pomeroy has an impressive 4.77X CoH advantage in this R+10 district, which he won by 24% in 2008.  Rasmussen shows Berg ahead.

50. HI-01 – VACANT – Hanabusa (D) v. Djou (R) – Djou has a 1.47X CoH advantage in this D+11 district.  Bizarre, jungle special election complicates matters in this district.  Multiple polls show that the special is a tossup.

51. WI-08 – Kagen (D) v. Trager (R) – Kagen has an impressive 5.66X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 8.1% in 2008.

52. IA-03 – Boswell (D) v. Gibbons (R) – Boswell has a 2.18X CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 14% in 2008.

53. NY-01 – Bishop (D) v. Cox (R) – Bishop has a 2-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+0 district, which he won by 17% in 2008.  Weird FDL poll showed a tossup race.

54. SC-05 – Spratt (D) v. Mulvaney (R) – Spratt has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+7 district, which he won by 25% in 2008.  PPP showed Spratt ahead.

55. NJ-03 – Adler (D) v. Runyan (R) – Adler sports an enormous 12-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 4% in 2008.

56. CT-04 – Himes (D) v. Debicella (R) – Himes has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 4% over incumbent Chris Shays in 2008.

57. MO-04 – Skelton (D) v. Stouffer (R) – Skelton has a 4.5X CoH advantage in this R+14 district, which he won by a whopping 32% in 2008.

58. NY-13 – McMahon (D) v. Grimm (R) – McMahon has a 2.57X CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which he won by 28% in 2008.

59. MI-09 – Peters (D) v. Goodman (R) – Peters has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which he won by 9.5% in 2008.

60. PA-11 – Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) – Kanjorski has a nearly 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+4 district.  Kanjorski beat Barletta by 3% in 2008.

61. KY-06 – Chandler (D) v. Barr (R) – Chandler has nearly a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+9 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

62. IN-09 – Hill (D) v. Young (R) – Hill has a nearly 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 19% in 2008.  Sodrel internal has the race a tossup.

63. PA-08 – Murphy (D) v. Fitzpatrick (R) – Fitzpatrick closed the fundraising gap fast.  Murphy has a 2.79X CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which Murphy won by 15% in 2008.

64. OH-18 – Space (D) v. Gibbs (R) – Space has a huge 14-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+7 district, which he won by 20% in 2008.

65. OH-13 – Sutton (D) v. Ganley (R) – Highly unusual race in which the challenger has a 7-to-1 CoH advantage.  The district is D+5, and Sutton won by 29% in 2008.  Sutton needs to pick up the fundraising pace.

66. NM-01 – Heinrich (D) v. Barela (R) – Heinrich has a 2.66X CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

67. CO-03 – Salazar (D) v. Tipton (R) – Salazar has an impressive 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by 23% in 2008.

68. TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) v. Canseco (R) – Rodriguez has a 21-to-1 CoH advantage, but only because Canseco drained his resources on the primary/runoff.  Rodriguez won this R+4 district by 14% in 2008.

69. OR-05 – Schrader (D) v. Bruun (R) – Schrader has a 3.44X CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 16% in 2008.

70. WA-03 – Heck (D) v. Herrera (R) – Heck has quietly amassed a nearly 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+0 district.  My sense is that the vulnerability of this district is overstated.

71. UT-02 – Matheson (D) v. Philpot (R) – Matheson has a 162-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+15 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

72. PA-17 – Holden (D) v. Argall (R) – Holden has an 8-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 27% in 2008.

73. CT-05 – Murphy (D) v. Greenberg (R) – Murphy has a 3-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which he won by 20% in 2008.

74. NC-11 – Shuler (D) v. Eichenbaum (R) – Shuler has a 16-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 26% in 2008.

75. VA-09 – Boucher (D) v. Griffith (R) – Boucher has a 22-to-1 CoH advantage, but Griffith only got into the race recently.  Boucher was unopposed in this R+11 district in 2008.

76. GA-02 – Bishop (D) v. Keown (R) – Bishop only has a 2-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by a whopping 38% in 2008.

77. IL-11 – Halvorson (D) v. Kinzinger (R) – Halvorson has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which she won by 24% in 2008.  Kinzinger internal has him up.

78. NJ-12 – Holt (D) v. Sipprelle (R) – Holt has only a 1.65X CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 28% in 2008.  

79. IL-14 – Foster (D) v. Hultgren (R) – Foster has a 12-to-1 CoH advantage, partly because Hultgren used most of his resources on the primary.  Foster won this R+1 district by 15.5% in 2008.

80. MO-03 – Carnahan (D) v. Martin (R) – CoH is dead even in this D+7 district, which Carnahan won by 36% in 2008.  Pick it up, Russ!

81. NY-25 – Maffei (D) v. Bitz (R) – Maffei has an 11-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 13% in 2008.

82. CA-18 – Cardoza (D) v. Berryhill (R) – Cardoza has a 2.15X CoH advantage.  Cardoza was unopposed in this D+4 district in 2008.

83. OR-01 – Wu (D) v. Brodhead (R) – Wu has only a 1.68 CoH advantage.  Wu was unopposed in this D+8 district in 2008.

84. WV-03 – Rahall (D) v. Maynard (R) – Rahall has a 42-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 34% in 2008.

85. NH-02 – Swett (D) v. Bass (R) – Leftovers from a prior run give Swett a 4-to-1 CoH advantage, which is why this is so low on the list.  D+3 district.  PPP showed a big Bass lead.

86. WI-07 – Obey (D) v. Duffy (R) – Obey has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 22% in 2008.

87. CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) v. Frazier (R) – Perlmutter has a 3.3X CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which he won by 27% in 2008.

88. OH-06 – Wilson (D) v. Johnson (R) – Wilson has an 8-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

89. IN-02 – Donnelly (D) v. Walorski (R) – Donnelly has a 5.5X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 37% in 2008.

90. IL-08 – Bean (D) v. Walsh (R) – Bean has a 22-to-1 CoH advantage, partly due to Walsh’s use of resources in a competitive primary.  Bean won this R+1 district by 21% in 2008.

91. WA-02 – Larsen (D) v. Koster (R) – Larsen has a 7-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 25% in 2008.

92. WI-03 – Kind (D) v. Kapanke (R) – Kind has a 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

93. MN-01 – Walz (D) v. Demmer (R) – Walz has a 31-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 31% in 2008.

94. RI-01 – OPEN – Cicilline (D) v. Loughlin (R) – Cicilline has quickly built a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+13 district.

95. CA-47 – Sanchez (D) v. Tran (R) – Sanchez has a 3.45X CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which she won by 44% in 2008.

96. GA-12 – Barrow (D) v. Smith (R) – Barrow has a 29-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 32% in 2008.

Let me begin by saying that I agree with nearly everything that Congressman Grayson said and agree particularly with his comments that House Republicans are Neanderthals. I agree that someone who stands up and defines the Republican House Caucus for exactly what they are is an incredibly valuable thing. But at the same time I worry about campaign giving which depends almost completely on emotional response and which then leaves the donor nearly powerless over what happens to that money and which does nothing to solve what at this moment is the Democrats current biggest problem when it comes to the 2010. It is also important to look into the facts which surround every race, from the money dumped on Congressman Grayson, or Rob Miller who is challenging Joe Wilson in South Carolina’s second district.

For instance, what percentage of Congressman Grayson’s donors knew that he is a massive self-funder who gave himself more than three million dollars for his 2008 race.  This does not automatically mean he should be forced to self-fund forever, or that he isn’t worthy of donations, but it does raise the question  at least slightly.  

When the money simple rains onto incumbents it distorts the system. It is more than likely that amongst the something like 100 democratic candidates running in either  open seats or challenging incumbent Republicans there is another Alan Grayson, or Carol Shea-Porter , or David Loebsack  who given the nature of the race they are running, are only that 100k, or so away from being for real.

As a first step, might I suggest to Congressman Grayson, that in response to the outpouring he has received his campaign committee goes out and finds ten strong house challengers who are progressive champions  and gives them the maximum allowed by law. This will run him at most half, of what he has raised from the progressive blogosphere and will strengthen his influence far more than simply keeping it for more television ads in his own district. If he announces those ten, we can have a multiplier effect, and truly strengthen our hand. It isn’t perfect, but it is a start.  

While this would be a good start is doesn’t address the bigger problem of how dollars often spent in ways which don’t strengthen the progressive movement or deal with the big problems we face.  One such potential instance is the nearly $ 250,000 being spent  on T.V. ads attacking Max Baucus and Olympia Snowe  on Healthcare and the Public Option, by the Progressive Change  Campaign Committee and Democracy for  America.   Don’t get me wrong I want the Public Option but it seems that either efforts are playing into the very same game that we don’t want to play.  

This  is because I don’t think Olympia Snowe will vote for the kind of bill that we want to see. It seems unlikely that she will be truly willing to be the only Republican willing to break with her entire caucus.  While I would love to be able to put her seat into play  in 2012 the total failure to touch her much more conservative counterpart in 2008, it seems like a pretty remote possibility. The White House in searching for Bipartisanship is focusing on her, but when we play along we raise her importance and that is bad.

The Baucus ads are also somewhat questionable, first of all while not facing the voters again until 2014, it is unlikely these ads will have an impact on his re-election efforts.  In general I take him at his word that he supports a public option  but feels constrained by  needing to get 60 votes in the Senate. While I agree this is a somewhat lame answer, the reality is that for rural red state Democrats, in a 60 plus Democratic Senate, the sixty vote rule is the an important defender of their power, and thereby the power of  their States. This is a complicated internal fight, where I agree the White House in facts holds more cards than does either Baucus or Harkin, as does the Progressive Block in the House. Hoping to improve Baucus’s behavior with T.V. maybe a good idea but might not be.

The major problem with issue ads, is that they quickly disappear, and it is very difficult to pin people down on their support for particular legislative tools.  We know, what we mean, but the broader audience probably doesn’t, as can be seen by the very different answers you can get when asking about the Public Option.

The big structural problem.

Going in 2010 we as progressive face a serious structural problem. It can be described best as a Demographic gap, and it something that gets whispered about but never discussed openly nor is much of a cure sought or hope made in that effort. In 2006, which was a very good Democratic year, the gap persisted.  The 2006  electorate was much older and much whiter than the 2008  electorate. It is because of this and this alone that Republicans are in serious contention for making serious gains in 2010, gains which if made will be difficult to change in 2012, because  of the way the Senate Map exists.  On a national level, in 2006, the electorate was 12% under 30.  In 2008, it was  18%.  In 2006 the electorate  was 10% African American and  in 2008 it was 13% African American.  Given how those groups voted in 2008, that amounts to a nearly four point swing to Republicans in 2010 before anyone even changes their minds.

 In two of the three most endangered  Senate  seats, the problem is even worse.  In Connecticut in 2006% the electorate was 8% African American , in 2008 12%, Latino’s were 5% in 2006, and 8% in 2008,  under 30 was 18% in 2008, and 10% in 2006.  In Nevada in 2006 African Americans were 6%, in 2008 10%, Latino’s  in 2006 12%, in 2008 15% under 30, 2006  12%,  2008, 17%.  With the 2008 Electorate, Dodd and Reid are on much firmer ground, with the 2006 electorate they face much scarier races.  

Conclusion

While obviously a win on healthcare with a public option would be very helpful, and might even have some dent on fixing this Demographic problem, this problem needs to be tackled much more carefully, and obviously the formula of the past, particularly relaying on T.V. Ads[ far and a way still the biggest campaign expense for both production, consultant fee’s and of course the air time itself.] is wrong.  We need to experiment in new and different types of infrastructure to tackle this problem, and between Grayson, Miller and the ads on Baucus and Snowe.  The progressive blogosphere spent nearly a million dollars,[depending how you count Miller even more.]  Without spending a dime on the most pressing problem. A million dollars is a lot of money in politics if it is spent wisely, but when it is simply handed over to campaigns with no future accountability, and in potentially inefficient ways, It is a shame because the problems we face from a policy perspective comes from spending advocacy and campaign dollars inefficiently and worse playing the game of those who rig it so we never win.

To go along with yesterday’s post, how about we all rank the 15 most vulnerable Republicans in the House? Remember, there are only 178 to choose from. (Enjoy saying that.)