This is the third in my five-week series focusing on House independent expenditures and what they tell us about the races. This one should be much better than the previous ones because I have now taken into account not just whether the party committees are spending in a particular district, but how much and for how long. The Republicans have relatively few seats in the bag compared to the apocalyptic conventional wisdom that this is the mother of all wave elections. I would generously give them 17 – all of the ones listed in the first two categories below. At the same time, the Republicans have genuinely put a lot of seats in play. One or both parties has made I.E.’s in 73 districts – 68 Democratic and 5 Republican. That is the problem for the Democrats – a broad playing field that is modestly expanding week by week. The problem for the Republicans though, which will probably keep them from running up huge numbers, is that they are bogged down in pitch battles over seats that were seen as goners according to the early conventional wisdom (MD-01, MS-01, NM-02, and VA-05 to name a few). Republicans are spending hundreds of thousands weekly on these types of districts. The fact that these deeply endangered Democratic incumbents have refused to say die two weeks out is good news for the Democrats, as it focuses resources on those races instead of broadening the playing field even further. All in all, I expect Republicans to take the House with a net gain of 40-55 seats. I would love to be pleasantly surprised, but I don’t expect to be. In any event, here is your weekly I.E. analysis:
Goners (9D, 2R)
AR-02 – Nothing from either side.
DE-AL – Nothing from either side.
IL-11 – DCCC has done nothing. NRCC has been spending about $30K per week.
IN-08 – DCCC has done nothing. NRCC had been spending but stopped this week.
KS-03 – Nothing from either side.
LA-02 – Nothing from either side.
LA-03 – Nothing from either side.
NY-29 – Nothing from either side.
OH-01 – One small, token ad buy from the DCCC. Nothing from the NRCC.
OH-15 – Same shit, different district.
TN-06 – Nothing from either side.
“I’m not quite dead yet” (10D, 0R)
CO-04 – DCCC has not spent a dime here, yet the NRCC spent over $400K this week.
FL-02 – Exactly the same story as CO-04.
FL-08 – DCCC has done nothing, and the NRCC spent over $200K this week. Actually surprised it was not more given Grayson’s cash advantage. Webster may be in good shape.
FL-24 – Exactly the same story as FL-08.
NH-01 – Still nothing from the DCCC, but the NRCC is spending over $300K per week.
PA-03 – Both parties have made persistent, small ad buys here, although the DCCC’s have declined. Does not look good for Dahlkemper.
PA-11 – The DCCC seems to be waving the white flag here, reducing its ad buy from over $100K to $34K this week. But the NRCC is still spending over $100K per week here.
TN-08 – Herron has only a faint pulse. DCCC has not spent a dime here, but the NRCC still spent over $100K this week, although it reduced its buy.
TX-17 – The DCCC has not spent anything here either. The NRCC has significantly increased its ad buys for the past two weeks, but they are still slightly under $100K.
WI-08 – The DCCC spent $45K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $100K. Looks uphill for Kagen.
Battlegrounds (31D, 1R)
AL-02 – Both parties pumped over $200K into this district this week. Dueling internal polls.
AR-01 – DCCC just dumped over $400K into this race this week, while the NRCC spent over $250K. Sorry Mark Penn, but this is a low single digit race and not a 12-pointer.
AZ-01 – Both parties spent over $200K each in this district this week. Rumors of Kirkpatrick’s demise may be exaggerated.
AZ-05 – DCCC spent about $250K in this race this week, while the NRCC went for the jugular with about $375K. Dueling internal polls.
CO-03 – DCCC spent $350K here this week, while the NRCC spent $275K. NRCC poll showed a tie.
FL-22 – Nothing from either side, but huge fundraising from both candidates. Dueling internal polls.
HI-01 – DCCC spent over $160K here this week, while the NRCC spent $120K in its first week of spending to date. Polls consistently show a very tight race.
IL-17 – DCCC spent over $300K here this week, while the NRCC spent $150K. This one is the real deal. Hare should win it if he can lift Dem turnout just a little.
IN-09 – DCCC spent about $275K here this week, while the NRCC spent $215K. Classic battleground. No polling for a while.
MA-10 – NRCC must like what they see here, busting out over $300K this week. DCCC spent about $150K. Still have not seen a poll of this race.
MD-01 – Both parties spent in the mid $300’s here this week. Kratovil is doing an amazing job of hanging in there.
MI-01 – DCCC spent about $275K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $200K. Toss-up race, as several recent polls have shown.
MI-07 – Both parties spent just over $200K here this week. Another pure toss-up.
MO-04 – DCCC spent $225K here this week, while the NRCC spent $280K. Skelton seems to be in a real fight, but there is a dearth of recent polling.
MS-01 – DCCC spent about $215K here this week, while the NRCC spent nearly $300K(!). Like Kratovil, Childers is doing a great job of pulling a Houdini act so far.
ND-AL – Look who’s back from the dead. Pomeroy has both parties spending $200K plus this week after weeks of silence from the DCCC.
NM-02 – Both parties spent just under $200K here this week. Like Kratovil, Teague is a red-district freshman with unusual staying power.
NV-03 – One of the hottest districts in the country. Both parties’ expenditures approached $400K this week. Pure toss-up.
NY-19 – Neither party has deigned to spend in the NYC media market on this one. Public polls paint a pretty clear picture of a toss-up race.
OH-16 – Huge battleground. DCCC spent $300K this week, while the NRCC spent over $400K. Like Kratovil and Teague, impressive staying power for Boccieri in red district.
OH-18 – Republicans see blood in the water here, spending well over $500K here this week. DCCC spent about $370K. SEIU pitching in for Team Red does not help Space.
OR-05 – Both parties spent well over $200K here this week. Sleeper battleground seat. NRCC poll showed a virtual tie.
PA-10 – DCCC spent $140K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $200K. Amazing that a guy like Marino can even be in a race like this, but that’s the kind of year it is.
PA-12 – Both parties spent in the mid-to-high $200K range here this week. Republicans only started spending here this week. They may see an opening in spite of the May result.
SC-05 – DCCC spent $170K here this week, while the NRCC spent $200K. Spratt is in a serious fight, but no polling for a while.
TN-04 -DCCC has only spent about $100K, but the NRCC spent a whopping $310K here this week. DeJarlais internal shows a 5 point lead.
TX-23 – Both parties spent in the mid-$200K range this week. This one should be very close. Have not seen any polling for a while.
VA-02 – Both parties spent in the mid-$100K range this week. Nye has done a good job of hanging around in this one.
VA-05 – The DCCC is still spending here, although its latest ad buy was under $100K. The NRCC spent about $185K this week. Periello is still very much alive, but behind.
WA-03 – DCCC spent nearly $280K this week here, while the NRCC spent over $300K. No, Survey USA, this is not a double digit race.
WI-07 – DCCC spent $175K here this week, while the NRCC spent about $155K. This one is probably competitive, although I suspect Duffy is ahead by single digits.
WV-01 – DCCC spent $250K here this week, while the NRCC spent nearly $200K. Manchin’s recent surge could help Olivieri.
Head Scratchers (6D, 1R)
CA-11 – Both parties spent about $50K here this week. I suspect McNerney is up, but as usual a Survey USA poll creates confusion.
IL-10 – DCCC spent $125K here this week, while the NRCC spent $55K. Mirror image partisan polls with double digit leads for either candidate have my head spinning.
NH-02 – DCCC spent a paltry $35K here last week, while the NRCC spent $128K. My sense has been that Bass is ahead, but that screwy UNH poll has me doubting myself.
NY-23 – Doheny internal shows a double digit race in his favor. Siena shows a double digit race in Owens’s favor. The NRCC has spent nothing. The DCCC spent $160K this week. Huh?
PA-07 – Polls have this one close, but the DCCC has not spent a dime. The NRCC has made small, sub-$50K ad buys.
PA-08 – Same shit, different district. Cannot figure these two districts out.
SD-AL – DCCC has not spent here in spite of Noem’s enormous 3Q haul. DCCC internal showed a double digit SHS lead, while Rasmussen showed a 3-point Noem lead.
Lean Retention (21D, 1R)
AZ-07 – DCCC spent about $60K here this week, which is disconcerting. Until the NRCC starts spending, I will assume it is precautionary.
CA-20 – DCCC spent about $40K here this week. I view it the same way as AZ-07.
FL-25 – DCCC spent $75K on advertising on 10/5 and cut that to $18K on 10/12. Not a good sign for Garcia.
GA-02 – DCCC spent $150K here this week, while the NRCC spent $100K. Does not seem like an all hands on deck effort for the Republicans yet.
GA-08 – DCCC is spending virtually nothing here, while the NRCC spent about $85K this week. I suspect Marshall is ahead. Otherwise, both parties would be investing more.
IA-02 – DCCC spent over $90K here this week, which is disconcerting. But the NRCC has not taken an interest yet, so I will wait and see.
IA-03 – DCCC spent nearly $130K here this week, but the NRCC has never engaged.
IL-14 – DCCC spent $90K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $50K. DCCC internal showed a double digit Foster lead.
IN-02 – DCCC spent $190K here this week, while the NRCC spent $80K. Like GA-02, seems like a tepid level of investment from the Republicans.
KY-06 – Both parties spent about $100K here this week. Does not seem like an inspired effort from the Republicans.
MN-01 – NRCC invested about $180K here this week after targeting the race last week, but the Dems have not yet felt the need to reciprocate.
MS-04 – NRCC invested $176K here this week, but nothing from the Dems yet. This one could be real trouble. Taylor is sub-Coakley in the hubris department here.
NC-07 – NRCC has made modest, $40K weekly ad buys here. The DCCC finally started spending this week ($75K). Seems like McIntyre is in decent shape.
NC-08 – DCCC has invested over $200K per week here, but that is probably just to counteract Kissell’s sorry fundraising. Nothing from the NRCC yet.
NJ-03 – DCCC has done nothing here. Modest, sub-$30K, weekly buys from the NRCC. Have to believe that Adler is up here.
NM-01 – DCCC spent $115K here this week, while the NRCC spent over $160K. Could be trouble, but I will wait to see if the DCCC ups the ante next week.
NY-20 – DCCC spent $110K here this week, while the NRCC spent $172K. Like NM-01, I will wait to see if the DCCC feels the need to pick up the pace.
NY-24 – DCCC spent nearly $200K here this week, but the NRCC only spent about $70K. Not an inspiring effort from the NRCC here. Arcuri is probably up.
OH-06 – DCCC spent $65K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $100K. Both parties seem to be just feeling out this race at this point.
OH-13 – DCCC has reduced its ad buy from $220K on 9/21 to about $65K this week. Dems have to be feeling good about this one.
VA-09 – The DCCC has not spent here, and polls have consistently given Boucher double digit leads. Nevertheless, the NRCC upped its ad buy to $180K this week.
VA-11 – The DCCC has been spending token amounts of money primarily on mailers. Nothing from the NRCC.
As to all of the other races where there have been no I.E.’s on either side, including AZ-08, CA-47, CO-07, CT-04, CT-05, ID-01, KY-03, MI-09, NY-01, NY-13, PA-04, and WA-02, I am expecting retention at this point. I’m sure there will be some surprises, but I’m not going to predict them here. I expect the overwhelming majority of the pickups to come from races targeted by one or both party committees.
Here’s the concern: NY-19 is showing no signs of committee life, even though reliable polling from two sources suggests a tight race with the Dem incumbent behind. So too PA-08.
If we can figure out why the committees aren’t playing in these districts, and whether there are any others like it, we might be able to get a better picture. IMO, what’s reflected is that these are suburban seats outside of Philly and New York, and therefore expensive. However, it’s hard to imagine holding the House if we can’t retain seats like these.
But I have to say, without a side-by-side with each candidates’ CoH and expenditures, it doesn’t tell the full story.
As you may know I check IE’s a couple times a day. I actually missed IA-02. I assume that is to counteract the buttload of money that AFF is dropping in the district. I think your classification of races is accurate.
For the record I think CA-11 lean D, IL-10 is lean D. NH-02 it’s worth noting that Kuster is outraising and outspending Bass by far. Think it’s lean D. SD-01 I have no idea. Probably toss-up. NY-23 is a confusing one, but until NRCC spends here I’m assuming lean D. PA-07 and PA-08 I think the dems are counting on Union spending and GOTV. Unions have spent over a million in PA-08. Outside Republican groups have spent over a million against Lentz in PA-07. I think they’re toss-ups.
NRCC not engaged, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks has loaned her campaign more than half a million dollars, including about $370K in the third quarter. She has the money to run ads.
Unlike MMM in IA-02, Zaun doesn’t have a lot of money and was able to afford only small ad buys to close out the campaign.
nm
And on that note, I’m going to post part of a comment I made in another thread, because it pertains so well to the topic here:
Why is the NRCC still spending so much money in some districts, like CO-04? In some cases, it’s almost as much as $1 million per week, or maybe that’s for a longer period of time like a month. Not all media markets are cheap, but not all of them are expensive like the New York metro area, either. You’d think that if the districts were really locks at this point–and some of them probably are, considering they are bound to get at least 20 seats–they’d spend the money elsewhere. Even with the overwhelming outside advantage that the Republicans have, money isn’t limitless. Why wouldn’t they be shifting money to AZ-07, for instance, if they felt CO-04 was so likely? There doesn’t need to be any collusion between official committees and outside groups to track what group is spending where, so it kind of makes sense to consider them as more or less aware of what each is doing.
Basically, my gut tells me that things aren’t nearly as bad as some say they are if they are spending such considerable sums of money on districts like CO-04 at this point in the game. I’d be interested to hear what others think on this note.
Your interpretation of no spending by the DCCC is that Taylor is in trouble. But isn’t the opposite more likely? That they’re not too concerned about him (yet)? Otherwise, I’d imagine they’d be investing in the race significantly.
DCCC has an expenditure today for media creation. Is this race back from the dead?
They also have another small ad buy today in VA-05, and media creation in VA-02, NY-23, PA-12, KY-06, IN-02, NY-23. Mailers in a number of districts, including FL-25 (still on the list). Still no spending in MS-04.
http://hotlineoncall.nationalj…
DCCC is buying NC-11 for homestretch, increasing ad buys in NC-07, SC-05. Probably just putting up a firewall of retentions, but who knows, maybe trouble is brewing.