The Democrats who voted against Health Care Reform are very well situated for re-election, considering that they are almost all from red districts. Those plucky kids who voted for it in tough districts, not so much. Not going to comment on the overall political wisdom of the vote (who knows where we’d be if HCR had failed), but the numbers tell a pretty clear story and it is an interesting aspect of the coming election (at least to me).
Here are the “no” votes on HCR. Of the 34, 20 are up in the latest poll. Only 2 (Edwards and Nye) are down. One (Space) is tied. The other 11 are either not running or there is no polling.
AL-02 – Bright – up 9 in DCCC poll.
AL-07 – Davis – not running.
AR-01 – Berry – not running.
AR-04 – Ross – up 18 in public polling.
ID-01 – Minnick – up 23 in public polling.
GA-08 – Marshall – up 6 in Republican internal.
GA-12 – Barrow – no polling.
IL-03 – Lipinski – no polling.
KY-06 – Chandler – up 14 in public polling.
LA-03 – Melancon – not running.
MA-09 – Lynch – no polling.
MD-01 – Kratovil – up 5 in Dem internal.
MN-07 – Peterson – no polling.
MO-04 – Skelton – up 12 in public poll.
MS-01 – Childers – up 5 in Dem internal.
MS-04 – Taylor – no polling.
NJ-03 – Adler – up 6 in public poll.
NC-07 – McIntyre – up 7 in public polling.
NC-08 – Kissell – up 17 in Dem internal.
NC-11 – Shuler – up 17 in Dem internal.
NM-02 – Teague – up 3 in public poll.
NY-13 – McMahon – up 33 in Dem internal.
NY-24 – Arcuri – up 13 in DCCC poll.
OH-18 – Space – tied in Republican internal.
OK-02 – Boren – up 34 in Dem internal.
PA-04 – Altmire – up 27 in DCCC poll.
PA-17 – Holden – no polling.
SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin – up 2 in public poll.
TN-04 – Davis – up 11 in Republican internal.
TN-08 – Tanner – not running.
TX-17 – Edwards – down 12 in Republican internal.
UT-02 – Matheson – no polling.
VA-02 – Nye – down 6 in Republican internal.
VA-09 – Boucher – up 10 in public poll.
By comparison, here are the 39 Democratic House members in Republican PVI districts who voted for the bill. Of these, only 7 are up in the latest poll. 15 are down. 5 are tied. The other 12 are either not running or there is no polling.
AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick – tied in Republican internal.
AZ-05 – Mitchell – down 6 in conservative poll.
AZ-08 – Giffords – tied in conservative poll.
AR-02 – Snyder – not running.
CA-11 – McNerney – up 1 in conservative poll.
CO-03 – Salazar – down 8 in conservative poll.
CO-04 – Markey – tied in Dem internal.
FL-02 – Boyd – down 15 in Republican internal.
FL-08 – Grayson – up 13 in Dem internal.
FL-24 – Kosmas – down 12 in Republican internal.
IL-08 – Bean – tied in conservative poll.
IL-11 – Halvorson – down 20 in conservative poll.
IL-14 – Foster – down 7 in conservative poll.
IN-02 – Donnelly – up 2 in conservative poll.
IN-08 – Ellsworth – not running.
IN-09 – Hill – up 7 in Republican internal.
KS-03 – Moore – not running.
MI-01 – Stupak – not running.
MI-07 – Schauer – down 8 in conservative poll.
MN-01 – Walz – no polling.
NY-19 – Hall – no polling.
NY-20 – Murphy – up 5 in conservative poll.
NY-23 – Owens – up 2 in conservative poll.
NY-29 – Massa – not running.
NC-02 – Etheridge – down 1 in public poll.
ND-AL – Pomeroy – down 9 in public poll.
OH-06 – Wilson – no polling.
OH-16 – Boccieri – down 14 in conservative poll.
PA-03 – Dahlkemper – down 14 in conservative poll.
PA-10 – Carney – down 15 in conservative poll.
PA-12 – Murtha – not running.
SC-05 – Spratt – tied in Republican internal.
TN-06 – Gordon – not running.
TX-23 – Rodriguez – down 6 in Republican internal.
TX-27 – Ortiz – no polling.
VA-05 – Periello – down 2 in Dem internal.
WV-01 – Mollohan – not running.
WV-03 – Rahall – up 16 in conservative poll.
WI-08 – Kagen – down 10 in conservative poll.
The ConservaDems are going to largely hold on where as the moderates will be slaughtered it appears.
I would be curious what the analysis looks like if you do the same thing for every district that is Even to D+5.
don’t mind some of the nay votes. If Gene Taylor had voted yes he would be done. Same with Minnick or Bright and many conservadems. I thanks the ones who are risking their jobs to better the country. What makes me mad is ones from safe districts who voted against it. Cough Stephen Lynch cough.
On one hand, if more democrats would have voted against health care reform, they might be in better shape for re-election.
On the other hand, it only passed 220-215, so with 3 more no votes the bill would have been defeated, denying Obama and the Democrats one of their major policy goals.
So it’s a question of what you rather want, do you want to keep a strong majority, or do you want to use your political capital to pass important legislation? I’d side with the latter, but that’s a debate probably not best served for SSP.
should be credited with most of these losses. It’s because of those closed door stuff in July, that then created the fear of what might be in the bill in August and things went downhill from there.
They leech off of limited Democratic resources (money, committee assignments, etc.) and then benefit from opposing, obstructing, stalling, and watering down the Democratic agenda or supporting the Republican agenda.
And in the process, the rest of the party suffers as the promise this presidency and Congress had fails to materialize. Rank and file Democrats have become disillusioned at the impotence of these huge majorities we’ve worked to build. Republicans are fired up, angry at the very suggestion of progressive legislation and a black/Democratic President, now smell blood.
Republican talking points are given bipartisan support and the air of “moderation.” Democratic messaging is undermined both by having “Democrats” arguing Republican memes and talking points but also from having “Democrats in disarray” stories. Attempts at remotely progressive legislation is stalled, allowing the conservatives to use their resources to beat it to death and drive down Democratic approvals.