GOP Gerrymander of Pennsylvania

for Ryan in DelCo, with love.  I’d really like your input, I’ve only been to Pa. once, and only in DelCo and Philly.

But here we go:

I re-numbered, but I’ll put ’08 totals and new totals for Prez election, and note local party strength, if different.

PA-1: Bob Brady-dark blue

Majority-Black and less-convoluted looking, keeps W. Philly and the most Dem/Black parts of Delaware County—Chester, Upper Darby, Yeadon, Darby.  Brady or any other Democrat should be insanely safe, at D+35.

PA-2: Chaka Fattah-green

I actually don’t know if Fattah would live here or in the first, but a progressive, likely Black Dem would be elected here anyways.  It’s plurality, but not majority, Black.  C. Philly + Cheltenham and Springfield. Loses 3 points to become only D+33.

PA-3 (old PA-13): Allyson Schwartz-purple

Schwartz gets safer, going from D+5 to D+8.  She gets Norristown and Lower Merion from Gerlach, and Providence, Lower Merion, Radnor, Haverford, Upper Darby from Meehan (I’m assuming Meehan and Barletta win, and Murphy and Dahlkemper are toss-ups) and gives up Abington, Bryn Athyn to Murphpatrick (I’m combining the names) and New Hanover, Lower Salford to Gerlach. In the end, these three suburban districts (6,7,13 in the old plan) look simpler and remain one D, one R, one Toss.

PA-4 (old PA-8): Murphpatrick-red

This goes from D+1 to D+3, but it’s what I have to do to protect Gerlach.  Adds surprisingly Republican NE Philly from Schwartz, keeps Lower Bucks Co, giving the upper part to Gerlach, and creates the new, more compact, suburban district.

PA-5 (old PA-6): Jim Gerlach-yellow

Gets Northern Bucks Co. from Murphpatrick, gets Upper Montgomery from Schwartz, some of Upper Berks from Holden, and loses some of Chester to Meehan.  Goes from D+5 to R+2, making Gerlach safe in at least neutral cycles.

PA-6 (old PA-7): Pat Meehan-turquoise

Meehan inherits Sestak’s district, lose E Delaware Co. to Schwartz, and adds the Southern Half of Chester Co., Lancaster Co, and SE York Co. to make this way more Republican and rural.  Goes from D+3 to R+1.  Meehan, who I believe is not a wingnut (correct me if I’m wrong), should be fine here, with the GOP county-level strength in these areas.

PA-7 (old PA-17): Tim Holden-gray

OK, this isn’t really the old PA-17, but Holden lives here.  Knowing that there is no way Holden can be knocked off, the smart thing is to give him such a Democratic district that Barletta is safe and Dent’s district can keep the same PVI.  This combines urban/minority-heavy areas of Reading, Harrisburg, and Lancaster, and then adds rural areas to move Holden from R+6 to D+2.  He could be subject to a primary, but it probably wouldn’t be smart.  It’s only 73% White, which I think is fourth lowest in the state.  

PA-8 (old PA-16): periwinkle

Joe Pitts doesn’t live here, and he’s old enough to go into a nice retirement, unless he wants to run against Meehan, which probably wouldn’t be smart.  This district has a lot of terrain from both Holden and Pitts plus a bit from Shuster.  Goes from R+6 to R+13, so definitely safe for any Republican.

PA-9 (old PA-19): Todd Platts-light blue

Almost all of Platts’ old terrain, minus N. York Co. which goes to Holden, is combined with some Pennsyltucky Shuster counties to move this from R+11 to R+14.  

PA-10 (old PA-15): Charlie Dent-pink

This district remains D+3, but adds E. Schuylkill from Holden.  However, still very similar to the old district, meaning a toss-up in a Dem-leaning year and lean R in a neutral one.

PA-11: Lou Barletta-light green

Barletta gets to keep his district number, but gets a much more friendly district, adding area from Carney and Holden, and losing the most industrial areas of the county.  Here he can remain anti-illegal immigrant and do OK, he goes from D+4 to R+7.

PA-12 (old PA-10): Chris Carney-blue

Carney benefits from the switch with Barletta, getting the Scranton-WilkesBarre area plus a lot of his old district.  He should be fine here, and goes from R+9 to D+1.  Could a primary be in order? It might not be super smart, but it could happen.

PA-13 (old PA-5): GT Thompson-salmon

This district barely changes, going from R+10 to R+9.

PA-14 (old PA-3): Mike Kelly? or Open-orange

I have no clue where Kelly lives. Otherwise, this is open but Safe R.  It has rural areas and Pitt suburbs in the more conservative parts. The more GOP parts of PA-3 and PA-4 go here, moving it from R+4 to R+11, and the more Democratic parts go…

PA-15 (old PA-4): Jason Altmire/Kathy Dahlkemper-puke color

Here, where Altmire would probably prevail.  It takes border manufacturing areas from the aforementioned districts and adds a bit of Washington Co.  Altmire, Carney, and Holden, the three ConservaDems who will survive this year, all suddenly have swing districts, leaving GOP areas for Republicans.  This one goes from R+10 to D+2.  Local Dem strength makes this even higher

PA-16 (old PA-14): Mike Doyle-bright green

Doyle, the most moderate Dem Republicans could hope for from this area, keeps a similar district, but adding more conservative suburbs from Tim Murphy to go from D+17 to D+12.  

PA-17 (old PA-18): Tim Murphy-purple

Tim Murphy, one of the most moderate Republicans after LoBiondo, Ros-Lehtinen, and that’s about it, keeps a district with the same PVI: R+10, but it looks waaaay more compact.  

PA-18 (old PA-9 and PA-12): Bud Shuster and Mark Critz-yellow

Critz’s R+5 combined with Shuster’s R+18 equals an R+12 that Critz probably can’t win.

Final Total (2010-2012)

If 2 Dems lose in 2010: Sestak’s seat, Kanjorski, Critz, Dahlkemper

If 3: Same total + possibly Murphy

If 4: Same total.

So, 4 or 5 seats will be lost.  At least 2 from redistricting, eliminating Critz and Dahlkemper.