Author: jncca

Most people agree voters tend to get more conservative as they age, but the age gap in 2008 (and 2004 as well) was huge compared to previous elections like 2000 and the previous few.  In this diary, I’m going to examine the age gap in every state from the 2008 presidential election to see which states are trending towards us in future elections and which away from us.  This would help the Democratic party focus its resources on states like North Carolina, which we all know IS trending towards us, and away from states like West Virginia, which aren’t.  However, when examining the data, I found quite a few surprises as well.  I’m going to start with states with about an average age gap (the Obama percentage of those under 30 minus that of seniors).

17% Gap:

This is still quite large, but these states don’t seem to be trending either way:

Missouri and Arkansas

  As it turned out, this actually surprised me a lot.  So what seems to be happening in these states, which obviously ARE trending red in PVIs, is that older Democrats are voting Republican more so than younger people are more Republican than their parents/grandparents.  This seems to be a phenomenon in quite a few Upper South states.

18% Gap:

Tennessee

  See Missouri and Arkansas for an explanation.  It’s a “the party left me” scenario.

Illinois

  This states seems to be holding quite steady.  The nice thing about the age gap is there’s no need to account for home-state effect, since EVERY voter in Illinois had Obama as their home-state senator.

Massachusetts

  Another blue state that doesn’t seem to be moving much either direction.

Nebraska and Kansas

  Two extremely similar states.  Despite Omaha moving leftward relatively quickly, I guess the rest of Nebraska must be making up for it somehow.

16%:

Florida

  Whites are moving right, but Hispanics are moving left.  They cancel each other out, basically.

Pennsylvania

  The west is moving right more quickly than the east is moving left, but the east is more populous.  Neutral as well.

Michigan

  The Grand Rapids area is moving leftward slightly as the Detroit area shrinks in clout and the suburbs hold relatively steady or move slightly left.  FL, MI, and PA are big swingy states (Michigan is Lean D, PA Tilt D, FL Tilt R in an average year) that are here to stay in the battleground.

15%:

Wisconsin

  Another Tilt/Lean D state that doesn’t have much of a trend.  The Midwest generally seems to be exemplifying this

Maryland

  A strongly blue state that’s not moving anymore, although it moved quite a bit in the 60s/70s/80s.  

Virginia

  There are two possibilities here:

1–It turns out that the state is no longer moving, and while no longer safe for Republicans, won’t become Lean D anytime soon or

2–The new Democrats moving here are in their late 20s or 30s and so mostly don’t fit into this younger age group.  I’m not sure which is the case, but you’ll see this again when it comes to a couple other states.

14%:

Montana

 At this point, it could almost be called a slight red trend, since the age gap is quite small, and older people in Montana actually tend to be more Democratic.

19%:

New Mexico

 Possibly a slight Democratic trend, but this evidence seems to show that New Mexico won’t become Safe D anytime soon.

Ohio

 This one surprised me.  I consider this state to be trending Republican long-term, as is much of the Great Lakes Region, but I may be wrong.  Your thoughts?

13%:

Vermont

 This states seems to have gotten as blue as possible at this point, so maybe that’s the reason the age gap is small.  Or it’s because everyone’s a Democrat.

20%:

Delaware

 Basically in the same boat as Maryland, maybe still getting a bit bluer.

Louisiana?!?!

 One of my big WTF states.  I’m not sure if there are more Black young people than White or what’s going on here.  Is Darth Jeff still around? Or GOPVoter of course.

Slight R:

12%:

Colorado

 Another surprise.  But I think this is similar to the Virginia case, where many young professionals in their 30s or late 20s move here and are more liberal.

Kentucky

 Definitely trending GOP.  No surprise here.

Hawaii

 Seems to have maxed out it’s blue-ness.

10%:

Rhode Island

 Extremely white and religious for such a blue state.  Plus it’s not really growing.  Anyways, not so much of an Obama age gap.

Minnesota

 The older people are actually more liberal than the younger ones here.  Minnesota is basically a Tilt D state, and should be a true toss-up soon, in my opinion.

Slight D:

22%:

New Jersey

 Many young Hispanics who vote overwhelmingly for our side.  

23%:

Texas

 This was a popular number.  Texas is in the D-trending states, but it’s not moving as fast as many others, as Texas Hispanics are more conservative than their California or East Coast counterparts.

Washington

 Still moving leftward, and I’m not sure it’s even winnable for the GOP anymore barring a landslide.

New York

 More minorities and few young people in Upstate, which is basically hemorrhaging population as we speak.

South Carolina

 Same boat as Texas, slowly moving left, but it’ll take multiple decades, most likely.

Maine

 Much of the Northeast is still moving our way.

Strongly Moving GOP:

9%:

Arizona

 You can’t chalk this up to John McCain.  Arizona just doesn’t seem to be trending our way like everybody thinks.  A 9% age gap in a state known for conservative seniors isn’t good whatsoever.

8%:

Idaho

 Did we THINK it was moving our way?

7%:

Oklahoma

 Same here.

6%:

South Dakota

 Same.  Another small rural Republican state not moving our way.

Wyoming

 See South Dakota.

5%:

New Hampshire

 This one’s a shocker.  Anyone wanna explain, because I really don’t understand it.

4%:

Oregon

 I think this is an extreme young professionals example.  Because Oregon is certainly not trending Republican like Wyoming.

3%:

West Virginia

  No surprise.

2%:

Georgia

 Either another extreme young professional effect, or we’ve been wasting our energy.  Only three states have a smaller age gap.

1%:

North Dakota

 Maybe Kent Conrad just saved himself a loss.

-1%:

Alaska and Utah

 That’s right, older people are MORE liberal here than younger ones.

Strong Dem Trend:

Here they are.  

26%:

Indiana and Nevada

Both of these states had big swings leftward over the past three years or so, and while many people think Indiana is an anomaly, I’m not so sure.  It swung back right in 2010, which Nevada didn’t really, but the youth in both states are extremely liberal compared to older folks, and in Indiana, they’re still mostly white as well.

27%:

Connecticut

Long a bastion of Yankee Republicanism, I was surprised to see how this was the Northeastern state with the biggest age gap, as it’s held almost completely stable since Bush 41 left office.  But here it is.

28%:

California

This was the leading vote-getter, and while it’s quite liberal, the age gap isn’t quite as large.  While the youth are like 3/4 Obama supporters, the seniors just aren’t conservative enough for a large age gap

29%:

Alabama

This was possibly the biggest shocker.  A red state that seems to be trending redder every election, and yet such a large age gap.  What gives?  More Blacks?  I’m not sure, since I really don’t think there are more liberal whites here in large numbers.  Maybe Gradydem can explain?

and..the top 2 are:

31%:

North Carolina

A swing state to stay, with huge college centers in Chapel Hill, Durham, and to a smaller extent Asheville and Boone.  I wasn’t surprised at all, but by number one…

33%:

Mississippi

That’s right.  Mississippi.  Only one person guessed this, comment if it was you.  This is a state Obama should be contesting long before Texas and possibly before Georgia.  The only states he didn’t win he should be putting money into are Missouri, Montana, Arizona, South Carolina, Mississippi, and maybe Georgia, in my opinion.

Here are my guesses for who runs in each state.  I’m not projecting wins and losses this far out.  However, I will say if I think the challenger is being smart.

Arizona: Sen. Jon Kyl vs Rep. Gabby Giffords

   I’m not actually sure if this is smart, she could wait six years and run then, when Arizona is bluer and more Hispanic.  However, I guess she expects Obama turnout to help, but immigration reform isn’t happening and would be helpful to that turnout.  It should be fun to watch regardless, and Arizona could have its first Jewish senator (Goldwater doesn’t count).

California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein vs. Some Rich CEO Person

   California doesn’t have any representatives moderate enough, unless former LG Abel Maldonado takes the plunge, but why would he? Newsom was weaker in a weaker year and beat him.  So it’ll be some rich person in my home state.  I honestly expected DiFi to retire and Jackie Speier and a couple others to run in a primary, but it’s fine.  I like DiFi, unlike some liberals.  I’ll get to vote for her in my first election!

Connecticut: Sen. Joe Lieberman vs. Peter Schiff vs. Rep. Chris Murphy

   This one should be extremely fun to watch!  Lieberman will run as an Indie, and three relatively strong candidates (no Schlesinger) means I have no clue who will win.  But it won’t be Schiff.  

Delaware: Sen. Tom Carper vs. Some Dude

   Carper, a mainstream, somewhat moderate, Democrat will not be considered vulnerable, and there’s absolutely no GOP bench anyway.  So he’ll be up against someone (Christine I hope).

Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson vs. Rep. Connie Mack

   Nelson replaced Mack’s father in the Senate and might retire this year, but I think he’s gonna try for one more term.  Mack is a strong conservative but not crazy candidate, and Florida’s rightward turn will probably convince him to take the plunge.  

Hawaii: Rep. Mazie Hirono vs. Fmr Rep. Ed Case

   The real action’s in the primary.  No Republican is winning in Hawaii when Obama’s up for re-election.  Classic Progressive vs. Blue Dog primary.

Indiana: Treas. Richard Mourdock vs. Sen. Dick Lugar

   Again, no Democrat is gonna win this Senate seat, both Republicans are strong.  Also, I don’t think anyone strong will run for the D’s.  This will be an interesting primary, and I really hope Lugar wins.

Maine: Tea Partier vs. Rep. Mike Michaud

  Michaud knows he’s got a good shot, being a moderate Dem in a year where Snowe could go down.  However, I think he’s cautious, but Snowe’s retirement (she has arthritis and doesn’t want the primary) will cause him to take the plunge.  

Maryland: Sen. Ben Cardin vs. Some Dude

  Cardin is distantly related to me.  That’s legitimately the most interesting thing about this race.

Massachusetts: Rep. Mike Capuano vs. Sen. Scott Brown

  Capuano’s unabashed liberal-ness vs. Brown’s semi-moderation.  Capuano’s primary will probably be cleared; nobody in the MA dem establishment wants Brown to be re-elected.

Michigan: Sen. Debbie Stabenow vs. Rich Guy/Rep. Candice Miller

  I’m not sure if Miller would win a primary; I know nothing about her campaign skills, but I think she’s in.  She also has one of the safest GOP seats, so it won’t be too much at risk.  

Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar vs. Some Dude

  Minnesota may be a swing state, but Klobuchar’s immensely popular.  Paulsen probably isn’t dumb enough to try and take her on, but if he’s redistricted out, he will have to do it.

Mississippi: Sen. Roger Wicker vs. Some Dude

  I forgot this seat was up again already.  But it’s not going to have a strong Democratic candidate.

Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill vs. Treasurer Sarah Steelman

  Steelman sounds Jewish, but I guess she isn’t.  McCaskill is one of my three favorite Senators (along with Wyden and Merkley) and I really hope she wins.  It’ll be interesting, and Former Sen. Jim Talent could still run, but I’m guessing he won’t.

Montana: Sen. Jon Tester vs. Rep. Denny Rehberg

  They both represent the whole state, and Rehberg is right-wing enough to win a primary easily (unlike Mike Castle).  

Nebraska: Sen. Ben Nelson vs. AG Jon Bruning

  Bruning’s already in, and personally, I don’t think the DSCC should spend a dime on this unless Obama looks to be up double digits (a.k.a. Democratic wave)

Nevada: Sen. John Ensign loses in primary, Rep. Dean Heller vs. Rep. Shelley Berkley

  The two non-freshman Reps go against each other after the corrupt sleazebag goes down.  Fields should be pretty well cleared.

New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez vs. Rich Dude

  I’m not really sure who the NJ GOP could put up against him otherwise, but he’s certainly vulnerable if Obama’s going down, so they’ll find someone.

New Mexico: Sen. Jeff Bingaman vs. Jon Barela/Fmr. Rep. Heather Wilson

  If Wilson wants to re-enter politics, she could try against the aging Bingaman.  Or else Barela could try.  Or it could be someone we’ve never heard of.

New York: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand vs. Dan Senor

 After Gillibrand’s rout this year, nobody else wants to go up against her.  Although Paladino would be fun.  Taking a bat to DC? Campaign video of him smashing White House windows?

North Dakota: Sen. Kent Conrad vs. Some Dude

 Conrad’s an institution, and institutions don’t usually lose in a general election.  Although Tom Dachle may be enough of an example to show why Conrad should still watch out.  He also may retire.

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Rep. Jim Jordan

 Jordan’s a Tea Partier, so he should win the primary.  Huge ideological differences between candidates in this swing state.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey vs. Rich Guy

 Casey appears safe, so no representative will challenge him.  If it were 2016, Corbett might, but he’s a new governor and can’t leave yet.  That leaves a rich guy.

Rhode Island: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse vs. John Robataille

 He’s the best the Rhode Island GOP has, so he’ll get the nomination.

Tennessee: Sen. Bob Corker vs. Some Dude

 The Tennessee Dems have nobody but Jim Cooper, and he’s already been a catastrophe running statewide.  Dems might want insurance in case a wacko wins the primary against Corker, though.

Texas: Railroad Comm. Michael Williams vs. John Sharp

 The candidates are pretty settled here.  Hutchison either retires (my guess) or goes down in the primary.  And we’ll probably have our first Black southern senator since Reconstruction.

Utah: Rep. Jason Chaffetz vs. Sen. Orrin Hatch

 Again, the competition is in the primary.  No Democrat has a chance, and Utah’s convention system should make Hatch relatively easy prey to Bay Area native (?!) Chaffetz.

Vermont: Sen. Bernie Sanders vs. Some Dude

 It’s Vermont.  The GOP has Dubie, who couldn’t win in 2010 in an open seat, and that’s about it.

Virginia: Sen. Jim Webb vs. Fmr Sen. George Allen

 I don’t think Webb will retire; if he does, I’d say Rep. Gerry Connolly jumps in.  Allen’s almost in for sure, and I think he’ll survive a primary, since he’s relatively Tea Party himself, with his Confederate sympathies.

Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell vs. Some Dude

 The action here is in the governor’s race.  The only GOPer left would be Dino Rossi, and he’s lost three times.

West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin vs. Some Dude

 Capito’s all they got, and she’s in for Governor, I will predict.

Wisconsin: Rep. Ron Kind vs. AG JB Van Hollen

 Kohl’s impending retirement sets up a fun battle here, with two establishmenty candidates, both in tune with their party’s bases, but not so far out there to be unacceptable to indies.  They’re the best each party has.

Wyoming: Sen. John Barrasso vs. Some Dude

 We have no bench.

Governors:

Montana: Some State Senator vs. Some other State Senator

 I don’t know enough about this race at all.

Missouri: Gov. Jay Nixon vs. LG Peter Kinder

 Kinder’s already in against the popular Nixon.  I don’t think he’ll have primary problems.

West Virginia: SoS Natalie Tennant/Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin vs. Rep. Shelley Capito

 A highly competitive governor’s election in a state that never really has competitive elections (except 2010).  Capito is the heir to the mansion, and there could be a brutal Democratic primary between two big WV pols.

Indiana: Fmr Sen./douchebag Evan Bayh vs. Rep. Mike Pence

 I think Pence knows he can’t win the presidential nomination unless he holds a bigger office.  This should have extreme spending, and liberals will flock to Bayh so the religious right Pence doesn’t get the office.  Primaries here should be no problem; they’d be too far outspent.

New Hampshire: 2 Statewide Officials

 Again, I know nothing about this race, but I think Lynch is retiring.

Vermont: Gov. Peter Shumlin vs. Some Dude

 Still no bench in Vermont.  

Washington: Rep. Jay Inslee vs. AG Rob McKenna

 McKenna shouldn’t have problems in the primary; he’s conservative for Washington.  Inslee has been around for a while and shouldn’t have problems either, and he’s been indicating he’s in.

Let me know if you disagree or agree, but comment either way!

I’m gonna try my best at communities of interest and all that jazz.  It actually doesn’t look too bad for Team Blue.

We begin up North.  

1st District: Wally Herger R+6.  

Cities: Redding, Chico, Eureka.  Basically combines parts of the three districts which went up North into one mammoth district for Wally Herger.  The Democrat, even in a good year, probably couldn’t win because of the extremely liberal bases of Humboldt County and Chico, where a ton of primary votes would come from.

82 W

2nd-green: Mike Thompson D+5  

Cities: Napa, Davis, Yuba City/Marysville

Combining the South halves of the 1st and 2nd, Thompson gets a reasonably safe district, with the liberal coast and college town Davis cancelling out the Valley.  66 W, 22 H

3rd-purple: Tom McClintock R+8

Cities: Roseville, Rocklin, South Lake Tahoe

Rooted in the Sacramento suburbs and extending into the Sierra, this district resembles much of the old 3rd in shape, but not territory.  McClintock is fine here.  84 W.

4th-red: Dan Lungren R+3

Cities: Citrus Hts, Folsom, Elk Grove

Sadly, without splitting Sacramento, you can’t make Lungren a goner, but he’s in danger nearly every election here.  However, a more moderate Republican, like Doug Ose, who used to represent the area, would be pretty safe.  72 W, 11 H

5th-yellow: Doris Matsui D+17

Cities: Sacramento

The district goes from Sacramento and takes in bits of two towns, West Sacramento and Woodland, that are in Yolo County. It doesn’t look pretty, but that’s because of large voting districts that a real redistricting could fix.  And Matsui?  She’s fine.  45 W, 21 H, 15 A, 13 B.

6th-teal: Lynn Woolsey D+23

Cities: Santa Rosa, Novato, Petaluma

Very little change here.

75 W, 15 H



7th-pink: George Miller D+18

Cities: Richmond, Vallejo, Vacaville, Fairfiled

Following I-80 betweeen the  Bay Bridge and Sacramento, this district is safe for any Democrat. 43 W, 20 H, 17 B, 15 A

8th-purple: Nancy Pelosi D+33

Cities: San Francisco, Sausalito

Adding a bit of Marin County and shedding some of the city, this district’s only major change is it now has the entire Golden Gate Bridge!  47 W, 29 A, 13 H

9th-light blue: Barbara Lee D+36

Cities: Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro, Alameda

A bit more compact, but essentially the same.  35 W, 25 B, 18 A, 18 H

10th-gray: Open–Mark DeSaulnier D+12

Cities: Concord, Antioch, Walnut Creek, Pittsburg

This is basically DeSaulnier’s if he wants it, he’s already representing most of it as a State Senator, and he clearly has higher ambitions, running in the primary last year for the open 10th.  67 W, 14 H, 10 A



11th-green: John Garamendi D+5

Cities: Stockton, Modesto (half), Oakley

It’s ugly because I had to make it so that Hispanics could be a majority of the primary electorate, or so I’m hoping (with high turnout).  VRA makes everything gross.  Garamendi would probably choose to run in the 10th instead, challenging DeSaulnier again.  47 W, 29 H, 12 A

12th-blue: Jackie Speier D+22

Cities: San Francisco (part), San Mateo

Hopefully our future Senator in 2018, when DiFi retires, Speier basically has the same district.  It’s tough to gerrymander a peninsula!  46 W, 27 A, 19 H.

13th-salmon: Pete Stark or Jerry McNerney D+15

Cities: Fremont (part), Hayward, Livermore, Tracy

McNerney’s finally safe.  Hopefully Pete Stark, an embarrassment to California, the Democratic Party, and the USA, retires.  For non-Californians, Tracy is bascially part of the Bay Area although it’s in a different county and in the Valley.  49 W, 21 H, 19 A

14th-olive: Anna Eshoo D+21

Cities: Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Redwood City, Palo Alto

I hate how my district always has such ugly colors, but it’s OK, cuz Eshoo’s still here!

53 W, 25 A, 16 H

15th-orange: Mike Honda D+14

Cities: San Jose (South), Gilroy, Campbell

Honda gets the more moderate South county, but it’s such a small percentage of the district it doesn’t matter.  53 W, 23 H, 18 A

16th-green: Zoe Lofgren D+19

Cities: San Jose (North), Fremont (part), Newark

This district is finally, a plurality-Asian district in California (the first ever, I believe). And I did it by accident!

34 A, 34 H, 25 W

17th-purple: Sam Farr D+20

Cities: Santa Cruz, Salinas, Monterey

By far the most common-sense way to draw this district. Takes in ultra-liberal Santa Cruz (the place my liberal family makes fun of for being crazy liberal) and the Steinbeck Salad Bowl, as I call this area to the South of it.  53 W, 36 H.

19th-pink: Jim Costa vs. Dennis Cardoza D+5

Cities: Fresno (part), Merced

Another VRA district in the valley, this one majority, but much cleaner-looking than the previous incarnation. Would be an interesting primary. 54 H, 28 W.

18th-yellow: Jeff Denham R+6

Cities: Modesto (part), Manteca, Turlock

The lone Democratic casualty on this map is Cardoza, although he probably would just run against Costa instead. A Central Valley/Sierra hybrid district, this is suited better for Denham, who lives on the border of the district.

60 W, 29 H

20th-green: Open: Fmr St Rep. Mike Villines R+10

Cities: Fresno (part), Clovis, Madera

Villines, who’s been looking to move up to higher office, has a seat tailor-made for him here.

53 W, 35 H

21st-dark brown: Devin Nunes R+13

Cities: Visalia, Hanford, Tulare

A very conservative majority-minority district, due to high illegal immigrant populations and low Hispanic turnout among citizens.  Nunes is fine here.  46 W, 42 H.

22nd-lighter brown: Kevin McCarthy R+11

Cities: Bakersfield, Santa Clarita (part)

Rising star McCarthy gets some of LA County, but it’s the conservative Northern half, so he should be fine.  54 W, 33 H.

23rd-light blue: Lois Capps D+4

Cities: Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Paso Robles

Capps may have to being campaigning again, but at least it won’t be a day’s drive from one end of the district to the other anymore.  This district is quite compact.  63 W, 28 H.

24th-purple: Elton Gallegly D+3

Cities: Ventura, Oxnard, Simi Valley

Basically the rest of Ventura County minus some of Thousand Oaks, Gallegly’s district just got shifted left enough that I’m guessing he retires.  The problem, of course, is we have absolutely no bench in Ventura County, so I guess we’ll see who turns up. 54 W, 35 H.

25th-rose: Buck McKeon R+9

Cities: Lancaster, Palmdale, Victorville, Hesperia

While McKeon doesn’t actually live here, it’s a safe bet he’d run anyways rather than go against Brad Sherman.  I saw DrPhillips combine the Antelope Valley instead of attaching Lancaster/Palmdale to LA proper, and I like the idea.  As does Buck.  56 W, 28 H, 10 B.

26th-olive: Open-St. Rep. Anthony Portantino D+11

Cities: Pasadena, Glendale

This district for former La Canada Flintridge Mayor Portantino.  Republicans don’t really have much of a chance here.  44 W, 24 H, 20 A.

27th-gray: Brad Sherman D+7

Cities: Los Angeles, Santa Clarita (part), Thousand Oaks (part)

By moving westward a bit, it becomes less Democratic than the state as a whole, but that’s blue enough for Sherman.  63 W, 21 H.

28th-bright green: Howard Berman D+19

Cities: Los Angeles

You knew those San Fernando Valley Hispanics Berman’s been dreading had to go somewhere, and with Prop. 20 passing, they’re in his district.  I still think he can win, however. Race-based challenges (see Herenton, Willie) are stupid and usually failures).  59 H, 24 W.

29th-pink: Adam Schiff D+20

Cities: Los Angeles, Burbank, Beverly Hills

Schiff’s district moves West, taking in a lot of Waxman’s and becoming even more blue in the process.  Think Schiff will leave the Blue Dogs? 64 W, 20 H.

30th-salmon: Henry Waxman D+28

Cities: Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Inglewood

Waxman’s district turns browner (a.k.a. more minorities), and I’m betting the next representative after him will be a member of one of those groups.  Until then, he’s safe.  42 W, 25 H, 17 B, 11 A.

31st-yellow: Xavier Becerra D+28

Cities: Los Angeles

Future speaker Becerra gets a similar, more compact district.  63 H, 16 A, 14 W.

32nd-orange: Judy Chu D+21

Cities: East Los Angeles, Pico Rivera, El Monte

Little change here, either, except for compactness.  Chu’s safe.  68 H, 22 A, 7 W.

33rd-blue: Lucille Roybal-Allard D+36

Cities: Los Angeles, Huntington Park

South Central gets a Hispanic representative.  That’s basically all the news here.  67 H, 20 B, just 3% white

34th-green: Karen Bass or Maxine Waters D+37

Cities: Los Angeles, Compton, Gardena

I really hope Waters retires.  Enough said. 49 H, 39 B, 4 W.  

35th-purple: Gary Miller or St. Rep. Ed Hernandez D+9

Cities: Whittier, West Covina, Diamond Bar

There’s no way a corrupt conservative survives here.  But that’s good for Hernandez, and California’s Hispanic representation, which now goes up by one.  55 H, 22 W, 18 A.

36th-orange: Jane Harman D+7

Cities: Torrance, Carson

Harman is actually a better fit for this district than her old one.  43 W, 30 H, 17 A.

37th-blue: Laura Richardson or Linda Sanchez D+13

Cities: Long Beach, Lakewood

My money’s on Sanchez.  And down goes a third corrupt incumbent.  Wow, Prop 20 is doing wonders.  37 H, 31 W, 16 A, 12 B.

38th-pale green: Grace Napolitano D+17

Cities: Downey, Norwalk, Lynwood

A generic backbencher, Napolitano is still safe.  70 H, 16 W.

39th-pale yellow: David Dreier or St. Rep. Norma Torres D+1

Cities: Chino, Pomona, Glendora

Surprisingly, Dreier could survive here.  I wouldn’t put it past him.  But his days are numbered either way due to age, and a Hispanic Democrat probably has the seat afterwards.  40 H, 39 W, 11 A

40th-maroon: Ed Royce R+8

Cities: Fullerton, Anaheim, Orange  

Bank-backer Royce will turn out OK here.  It actually gets more conservative.  48 W, 36 H, 11 A.

47th-gray: Loretta Sanchez D+4

Cities: Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Buena Park

Similar to the current district.  Sanchez will be in fights but probably survive every year.  55 H, 22 W, 18 A.

46th-orange: Dana Rohrabacher R+7

Cities: Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Westminster

Doesn’t change too much, either, but gets impenetrable again by shedding its portion of Long Beach.  60 W, 20 H, 16 A.

43rd-pink: Joe Baca D+8

Cities: Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, Rialto

Noted asshole Joe Baca, sadly, still has a district in the Inland Empire.  I think he’ll be safe.  51 H, 31 W, 11 B.

44th-maroon?: Ken Calvert D+0

Cities: Riverside, Corona, Norco

Calvert gets a very compact district (no more O.C.) and Bill Hedrick gets a House seat, although he’ll be vulnerable every non-wave cycle in it.  46 W, 38 H.

41st-gray: Jerry Lewis R+3

Cities: San Bernardino, Redlands, Yucaipa

Corrupt douche Lewis will have to be on his toes, but I think he’ll be fine with all the pork he brings back.  It’s a toss-up when open, though.  50 W, 32 H.

42nd-green: St. Sen Bill Emmerson R+2

Cities: Moreno Valley, Lake Elsinore, Hemet

Our lack of a bench here is killing us.  This would be competitive if there were an elected official in the district on our side.  But I think it’s Emmerson’s, although not for too many years.  50 W, 33 H.

45th-blue: Mary Bono Mack D+2

Cities: Palm Springs, Indio, El Centro

Mack can go live in Florida full-time now.  Steve Pougnet’s got this one.  51 H, 42 W.

48th-orange: John Campbell R+4

Cities: Irvine, Tustin, San Juan Capistrano

Campbell’s district is a decade away from toss-up territory, so he’s fine.  68 W, 14 H, 13 A.

49th-reddish: Darrell Issa R+10

Cities: Oceanside, Temecula, San Clemente

This district picks up everything that didn’t fit into communities of interest and gives it to ImpeachMeister Issa.  64 W, 23 H.

50th-pale blue: Brian Bilbray R+7

Cities: Carlsbad, Poway, Escondido

A sane California Republican, Bilbray gets a safe district as well.  Unlike Duncan Hunter…68 W, 20 H.

51st-brown: Susan Davis D+7

Cities: San Diego

Davis gets the North half of the city, same as before, but it looks nice now.  61 W, 15 H, 15 A.

52nd-white: Bob Filner D+11

Cities: San Diego, La Mesa, Lemon Grove

Filner might not quite live here, but it’s close, and there’s no doubt he’d rather run here.  40 W, 33 H, 12 B, 11 A.

53rd-greenish: Duncan Hunter R+3

Cities: Chula Vista, El Cajon, San Ysidro

All it takes is a normal map and Hunter is vulnerable.  However, I think he can still win it.  49 W, 35 H.

So there you go:

Incumbents gone:

Maxine Waters—primary

Laura Richardson—primary

Pete Stark—primary

Jim Costa—primary

Elton Gallegly—retiremnt, FLIP

Ken Calvert—FLIP

Gary Miller—FLIP

Mary Bono Mack—FLIP

Possibly also:

David Dreier—FLIP

Duncan Hunter—FLIP

Jerry Lewis—FLIP

Please comment!

Here we go.  FL-12 not included due to three-way confusion.

Comment and tell me what you think if you read it.

Safe Takeover:

LA-3: Jeff Landry  I’m not sure when a Democrat will hold this district again

NY-29: Tom Reed  We’re not even trying here, but it’s better we don’t.  Need about 3 upstate GOPers in order to have safe map for incumbent Dems.  Right now just Lee and Reed exist.

TN-6: Diane Black  Another district that won’t be Dem for a very long time.  Getting more suburban every decade.

59-41 districts:

MI-11: Thad McCotter  Very conservative in a swing district, but wrong year and not a strong challenger.  I wonder how Michigan redistricting will look.  We need PVI in Dave’s App for it.

DE-AL: John Carney This one’s easy.  Thanks for the crazies, Delaware!

LA-2: Cedric Richmond Also easy, Cao couldn’t win in ANY year.  I really hope Richmond’s primaried out by someone in 2012, however.  I don’t like him at all.  

IN-7: Andre Carson  Trending blue by the year.

NY-2: Steve Israel  Put up ads early, kept wave from getting to him

NC-13: Brad Miller  Definition of backbencher, but he’s a good Dem

OK-2: Dan Boren  Just because of the year.  Still an asshole, though

WA-6: Norm Dicks  I have heard he’s corrupt, let’s not have him chair appropriations? Kthx 🙂

58-42 Districts:

CA-45: Mary Bono Mack  Right candidate, wrong year.  Looks to me like Prop 20 would give Bono Mack a safer district by taking out Moreno Valley and putting it in an open R seat.  That’s my take, anyway.  Would also add Beaumont, San Jacinto, and some High Desert area from San Bernardino County.  Too bad.

NE-2:  Lee Terry  He’s a complete ass that nobody likes, but it’s also the wrong year.  I really wish we’d gotten him in 2008.

OH-13: Betty Sutton  Looked competitive until Ganley was discovered to be rapist

UT-2: Jim Matheson  I wonder if GOP will try and get rid of him next year or give him safer Salt Lake district?

NY-4: Carolyn McCarthy  Kinda wish she’d been chosen for Senate instead of Gillibrand.  Gillibrand’s too much of a flip-flopper.

RI-1: David Cicciline  I don’t buy that this is competitive when 2/3 of voters will go for a Dem or a Chafee.

ME-2: Mike Michaud  Meet Maine’s next Senator.

ID-1: Walt Minnick  Wow!

PA-4: Jason Altmire Perfect fit for his district

MO-5: Emmanuel Cleaver  Same here.

57-43 Districts:

AR-2: Tim Griffin He’ll be here as long as he wants.  Elliott didn’t have a chance.

KY-3: John Yarmuth  Loved by district despite liberalism

NY-25: Dan Maffei  One of safest freshmen from ’08.  Future Senator replacement for Schumer?

OR-1: David Wu  Will be one of two mainland Asians left in Congress, I believe.

MA-4: Barney Frank  This is NOT Lean D.  Sorry, Charlie.

PA-15: Charlie Dent  How did Pat Toomey hold this seat?

CO-7: Ed Perlmutter  I just don’t think Perlmutter is as vulnerable as people say.

NM-3: Ben Lujan  Neither is Lujan.  The Hispanics here turn out.

CA-44: Ken Calvert  District will be pure toss-up post Prop 20.  Please, can we get rid of him then?  BTW, this is all based on a Prop 20 map I drew.

IL-8: Melissa Bean  Lucked out with joke of a challenger.  Life’s been good to her soooo far!

NY-22: Maurice Hinchey  He’s not in danger, but I think this is his last relection.  Saves having to combine two congresspeoples’ districts, and this is the weirdest-shaped upstate one anyway.  

NJ-6: Bill Pascrell  I really know nothing about this guy.

PA-17: Tim Holden  He’ll be holden on to this seat for two more years, we’ll see about redistricting

TN-5: Jim Cooper  Everyone says he’s not a fit for the district, but it’s no more than D+5.  Nashville’s not Memphis.

56-44 Districts:

NJ-12: Rush Holt  It’s amazing two people named Rush are prominent in politics, but they couldn’t be more different

TX-something: Ruben Hinojosa  Also know nothing about this guy

MI-3: Justin Amash  Too conservative for district, but wrong year

AZ-8: Gabby Giffords  I really like her, but can she beat Kyl in 2012?

MO-3: Russ Carnahan  Carnahans, they’re everywhere! RedState has some BS about how he’s anti-Catholic

CA-20: Jim Costa  Hispanics turn out at low rates, but Costa’s very moderate

WV-3: Nick Rahall  Incredibly racist anti-Rahall ads

FL-2: Allen Boyd Dead man walking.  Wasn’t bad at all for a rural Southern Democrat.  Will be missed.

GA-2: Sanford Bishop  Too many Blacks in district for Keown.

IA-3: Leonard Boswell Amazing recovery, but he’s retiring in two years, I bet.  Good way to go out.

OH-12: Pat Tiberi  I always thought this guy was a moderate, but I checked DW-Nominate and he’s nothing of the sort.

NC-2: Bob Etheridge  Yes, ElectionProjection, of COURSE he’ll lose.  

NC-4: David Price  Why is he vulnerable?  He’s a Kanjo waiting to happen.  Retire next cycle, please.

IN-8: Larry Bucshon Generic R vs. Generic D in this district? What do you think?

OR-4: Peter DeFazio  Art Robinson? HA

TX-something: Henry Cuellar  Another anonymous Hispanic Texas Dem, along with Hinojosa, Ortiz.

MN-1: Tim Walz  Guy’s entrenched himself well, coming after a real conservative guy in Gutknecht

IA-2: Dave Loebsack  Smart, progressive guy

55-45 districts: MI-9: Gary Peters  Rocky is Tea Party member in suburban district.  I don’t think so.

NC-11: Heath Shuler  Heath, you will NEVER be speaker.  Sorry.

TX-17: Bill Flores  He almost lost in 2008, kind of.  This is the end, Chet.  Too bad.

WA-9: Adam Smith  Who would’ve thought the guy who invented laissez-faire was a Democrat?

FL-24: Sandy Adams Kosmas wouldn’t have won if Feeney wasn’t corrupt

NY-21: Paul Tonko  Albany area trending away from Dems, slowly.

AZ-7: Raul Grijalva  Boycotting your own state?  I’d primary him if I lived there.  Also, the whole killing HCR thing was a dick move (do they use this expression in other places?)

CA-3: Dan Lungren  Just the wrong year.  He’s dead in 2012 if Bera runs again and Obama’s semi-popular.  

ME-1: Chellie Pingree  She’s really weak for a blue district.  Don’t let her run for Senate.

TX-something: Solomon Ortiz  See above

PA-6: Jim Gerlach  He’s been lucky

IA-1: Bruce Braley  AAF can’t get rid of him

CT-4: Jim Himes  Strong Freshman

OH-1: Steve Chabot  Dreihaus needed Obama and AA turnout

KS-3: Kevin Yoder  Dennis Moore: Time for a new generation of leadership.  My wife’s gonna run to replace me.  I call bullshit on him.

IL-11: Adam Kinzinger He’s a really strong candidate.  Let’s see how he votes, and if he’s eyeing a promotion.

IN-2: Joe Donnelly  Donnelly might be in his last term next year.

NY-1: Tim Bishop  Very popular

54-46 Districts:

WI-7: Sean Duffy Open seats are really tough to defend.

MA-6: John Tierney  Tierney’s actually more liberal than most of his delegation despite more blue-collar district.  Oh yeah, and his wife…

AZ-5: Harry Mitchell  He’s to Tempe what LeBron is to…oh wait…

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy  Hoeven, environment, cap and trade, etc.  Not looking good for Earl.

NC-7: Mike McIntyre  His candidate should be in jail, in a cell with Rick Scott and Allen West.

CA-47: Loretta Sanchez  What’s with Sanchezes and racial/ethnic gaffes/bigotry?

TN-4: Lincoln Davis  This one might be closer than I predict.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he loses.  

VA-9: Rick Boucher  I WOULD be surprised here

CO-4: Cory Gardner  Buck will do well here, and Gardner’s Generic R.

TN-8: Stephen Fincher  Tennessee’s a bloodbath this year

MN-6: Michelle Bachmann  I say keep her in the House and get rid of Kline.

AR-1: Rick Crawford  Historically Dem Mississippi River districts not looking so hot this year

PA-3: Mike Kelly  Why isn’t this race closer?

IL-10: Dan Seals  Here’s a pickup by our side.  How liberal is Seals?  I heard he was a Blue Dog, I think?

NY-13: Mike McMahon  Asshole, but he’s our asshole.

OH-15: Steve Stivers  Kilroy is a very weak candidate

FL-8: Dan Webster  Grayson should look up “asshole” in Webster’s dictionary; he’ll see his picture there

KY-6: Ben Chandler  Raise your hand if you knew he was the son of an MLB commish

NY-24: Mike Arcuri  This one’s a shocker

53-47 Races:

OH-10: Dennis Kucinich  He’s just weird…

SC-5: Mick Mulvaney  Not huge loss as he’d be gone in two years anyway, either from redistricting or retirement.

AZ-3: Ben Quayle  What an ass.

IL-17: Bobby Schilling  He’s a one-termer if I every saw one.

WA-2: Rick Larsen  District’s more conservative than you’d think, Murray could lose it narrowly.

VA-11: Gerry Connolly  Getting a bit worried about this one…

NY-19: Nan Hayworth  Who wouldn’t vote for a rogue ophthamologist named Nan?

MS-1: Alan Nunnellee  Fear the mustache

NM-1: Martin Heinrich  New Mexico’s next Senator

CA-18: Dennis Cardoza  Water issues are very key here

HI-1: Colleen Hanabusa Expected it to be bigger margin

VA-2: Scott Rigell Nye’s disappointed netroots

WI-8: Reid Ribble  Great name, but Kagen was great congressman

NJ-3: Jon Runyan  I’m surprised, but I think he’ll win

52-48 margins:

FL-25: David Rivera  Will he become entrenched fast enough?

WI-3: Ron Kind  RedState’s been touting this one for months.  Another “next senator”

AL-2: Bobby Bright  Good fit for district

OH-16: Jim Renacci Boccieri can play with his newborn instead

MD-1: Andy Harris  People don’t like him, but he’s the Republican

PA-12: Mark Critz  Will be eliminated in two years

FL-22: Ron Klein  In the end, West’s just plain crazy.  This one may be more based on hope than gut.

NM-2: Steve Pearce  Watch him try and run for senate in 2012

NH-1: Frank Guinta  Corrupt.  We can get him next cycle.

IL-12: Jerry Costello  I don’t care how weak the opponent is.  Downstate Illinois is hell this year.

CA-11: Jerry McNerney  Harmer’s against public education.

NC-8: Larry Kissell  I have no clue how to rate this one, little polling

PA-7: Pat Meehan  Only cuz of the cycle

MO-4: Ike Skelton  Retiring in two years, but won’t go out a loser

WA-8: Dave Reichert  I think health could force retirement soon as well.  Hope for a recovery

MS-4: Steven Palazzo  Gene’s in an insanely tough district and year.  Could a Brett Favre campaign visit this weekend help?  He’s injured, right?

51-49 districts:

NY-20: Guy running against Scott Murphy  I honestly forget his name, but this gives GOP the third district upstate to make a safe 24-4 D map.

OR-5: Scott Bruun  Is it pronounced Scott Brown?

OH-6: Charlie Wilson  What’s with the domestic abuse thing?

OH-18: Zack Space  SEIU are idiots

GA-8: Austin Scott Sorry, RuralDem.  We’ll see who’s right, and I’ll admit it if I’m not.

VA-5: Rob Hurt  Perriello closer than Nye would make me happy

MA-10: Bill Keating   How’s Perry still in this?

CO-3: John Salazar  Popular

NY-23: Bill Owens  Hoffman saved him

IL-14: Randy Hultgren  It’s the environment

IN-9: Baron Hill  HoosierDem will be happy

TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez  I heard he’s winning.

MI-7: Mark Schauer  Walberg is flawed

MN-8: Jim Oberstar  I agree with Mark, I could see him losing

PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick  Would instantly be most moderate GOPer

NH-2: Charlie Bass  He’s really not moderate, if you look at the record

50-50 races

WV-1: David McKinley I say R pickup either way, Oliverio’s not staying if R’s take House

AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick  Optimistic about Navajo

SD-AL: Kristi Noem  Driving record almost brings her down

MI-1: Dan Benishek A new Dr. Dan

NV-3: Joe Heck  Just switched this one today.  

PA-10: Tom Marino  How is he winning?

PA-11: Paul Kanjorski  How is HE winning?  Remember when we all “knew” Kanjo would lose, Carney would win?

I literally have Speaker Boehner by one seat…wow.

Here they are.  I am not predicting three-way races, just cuz I’m lazy.  So no FL-12, FL-Sen, MN-Gov, RI-Gov, AK-Sen, CO-Gov, MA-Gov, or ME-Gov, although I will predict winners.  

I’ll start with the Senate:

ND-Sen: Safe for Hoeven.  I’m not bothering with a percentage here.  Is he really that moderate? I’m predicting him more like Lindsey Graham, not George Voinovich.  Am I wrong?

OH-Sen: Safe for Portman.  He’ll score around sixty, incredible for an open race in a swing state.  But Fisher is truly that bad of a candidate.  Here’s hoping we never hear from him again in an election.

AZ-Sen: John McCain 59%  I think many moderates will be upset that he’s gone so far to the right, but of course, this is a red state in a red year with a longtime incumbent in what is really not an anti-incumbent election.

IA-Sen: Chuck Grassley 59%  Same thing as McCain, but a purple state rather than red.  However, no divisive primary.

LA-Sen: David Vitter 57%  Melancon just picked the wrong year.  I think he’d lose his house seat if he were running this year as well, or at least be awfully close.  Let’s get Vitter in 2016.  He is my least favorite non-John Ensign or Sam Brownback or Jim Inhofe senator.  Actually, he might be above all of those.

AR-Sen: John Boozman 57%  Blanche is so far gone.  Has anyone ever lost by this much for a Senate seat as a non-scandal plagued multi-term incumbent?  I’d be curious.  

NC-Sen: Richard Burr 56%  And the streak ends.  Marshall’s a weak candidate, as is Burr, but the GOP tide (about R+4) and the GOP lean of the state (about R+2) provides the margin.

IN-Sen: Dan Coats 56%  This is exactly the same situation as North Carolina, except Coats isn’t really an incumbent.

MO-Sen: Roy Blunt 54%   Blunt is a corrupt man who I hope will lose, but it won’t happen.  Carnahan is nothing new or exciting, but it’s the wrong year anyway.  

NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte 53%  I think Ayotte is weaker than many realize, and Hodes could have done it in 2006 or 2008, and possibly even 2004.  Wrong year.

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk 52%  Remember, I’m just predicting their percentage of the two-party vote.  Kirk will not break 50, but his semi-moderation and faux-honesty, along with being pro-choice and Alexi’s personal scandals are enough to doom him here.  Sadly, Kirk gets this seat in November, not January, but at least no more Roland Burris.

PA-Sen: Pat Toomey 52%  I really wish that Sestak could win.  Toomey is so far right on many issues, and Sestak is a strong candidate whom I really admire for taking on Specter and defeating him.  I’m not sure what Sestak’s next move would be, as he’s still young.  Secretary of the Navy?

KY-Sen: Rand Paul 51%  I think the drug and unemployement issues will hurt Paul more than most suspect.  Aqua Buddha may hurt him a bit, but it makes me personally less supportive of Conway.  This one may even be a wider margin.

WI-Sen: Ron Johnson 51%  Johnson’s too conservative to get much more than 51% in a pale blue state.  Feingold ran a terrible campaign, which is too bad since he’s one of my favorite senators (Claire McCaskill is probably my absolute favorite, though.  I hope she runs for president in 2016 and wins).

Now to the Dem seats:

CO-Sen: Michael Bennet 51%  Buck’s latest socially conservative statements will hurt him in the Denver Suburbs, and Bennet better capitalize.  Buck’s too extreme to be in office from a purple state.

NV-Sen: Harry Reid 51%  I’m growing more nervous about this one every day, but I still think Harry can pull it out.  Angle seems desperate.  It’s amazing he’s going to win this seat, though.

WA-Sen: Patty Murray 52%  Dino can’t get over the hump, Patty’s not super popular, and so the natural lean of the state comes into play, about 5 points blue minus 4 points for wave year plus 1 point for Dino being Dino.

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer 53%  I’m going to make calls for her this weekend, but I really think she has it in the bag.  I don’t wanna risk a Senator Fiorina, however.  How anyone can support Carly’s CEO record is incredible; everyone I know whose parents worked at HP in that time (and I have many of those friends, due to where I live) have entire families that despise her.

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin 54%  Raese is too conservative even for West Virginia in a red year, which is saying something.  Oh yeah, he’s also an arrogant jerk.  I hope Manchin becomes a Pryor, not a Nelson.

CT-Sen: Dick Blumenthal 56%  I thought he was dead after the Vietnam comments, but he’s turned it around, and McMahon is deeply flawed.  I love how Jewish the CT Senators’ names sound, it’s almost stereotypical 😛

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand 57%  Gillibrand’s against a legitimate candidate, but she’s strong and has heavy coattails.  She’ll be in this seat for a long time, I believe, if she doesn’t run for President at some point.

OR-Sen: Ron Wyden 58%  I met him and he offered me an internship.  He’s hilarious, has a funny voice, and is extremely tall.  Oh, yeah, he’s also one of my favorite senators, and I LOVED his health care plan.  He’s also safe.

I believe DE-Sen is safe.

Now to the Governors:

Safe R: Mary Fallin, Bill Haslam, Matt Mead

Kansas: Sam Brownback 59% Brownback is very conservative even for Kansas, and with a popular Democrat leaving office, I don’t think he can break 60.  But it will be close.

Alaska: Sean Parnell 58% I’m not sure why he’s not doing better.  But he isn’t, and polls say he’s up around this amount.

Arizona: Jan Brewer 57% An old lady who doesn’t know how to do debates, but is creaming Goddard due to the year.  I think Hispanic turnout will still be low, and I’m not really sure that many of them are virently pro-illegal immigration.  It’s some people taking a shortcut while the Hispanic voters had to wait to enter the country.  But I digress, Brewer’s safe.

Michigan: Rick Snyder 56%  I personally like Snyder.  He seems like a technocrat, and I’d vote for him over Dillon.  I like Bernero better than either, but Bernero can’t win in a year like this against a legitimate moderate like Snyder.  Oh, and Granholm’s super unpopular.

Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett 56%  The eight-year cycle continues.  Onorato isn’t inspiring, and Democrats need inspiring this year.

South Carolina: Nikki Haley 55%  Haley’s ties to Sanford and her tea party alliances are drawing ire from the local CoC against a Blue Dog Sheheen.  But it’s South Carolina guys, come on.  She’ll win it.  Another Indian-American governor for a deep south state.  Who would have thought?

Iowa: Terry Branstad 55%  Culver has closed by a few points in the last couple weeks, but it’s not enough.  He’s very unpopular, and Branstad is well-liked.

New Mexico: Susana Martinez 55%  Denish has slowly collapsed over the last 3 months, and I think this could go even lower for her.  Richardson’s loathed, Martinez is Hispanic, it all works out right for the GOP this year.

Georgia: Nathan Deal 54%  I really wish Karen Handel had won the primary.  Knowing that Barnes would have lost either way, at least Handel’s not a corrupt scumbag.  I sure can’t say that about Shady Deal (has that nickname been used before?)

Wisconsin: Scott Walker 54%  I don’t think we’re going to win governorships of any swing state but New Hampshire and Oregon this year.  Wisconsin’s swung hard right, and Walker seems popular and sane.

Texas: Rick Perry 53%  This is a bit low for many people, but I think all the newspaper endorsements and poor media coverage will lower his percent a bit.  He’ll still win, but White’s put up a strong fight.  I hope he runs for Senate in 2012.

Nevada: Brian Sandoval 53%  Rory Reid’s slowly catching up, but I really don’t think he can win.  And certainly not with this little time.

Florida: Rick Scott 50%  It’s recount time in Florida again!!!  Sink’s debate thing really may cost her, although how Florida could vote for a crook, I don’t know.  If the parties were flipped, I’d be a Sink supporter still, or at least just not vote.

Illiinois: Bill Brady 50%  I think Chicago will help close this one; Brady is much more extreme than Kirk, and we may have a recount here as well.  Illinois’s Dems really did a TERRIBLE job in the primary, but they only have themselves to blame for that.

Ohio: John Kasich 51%  Strickland’s keeping it close, which is very impressive, but Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the Dems’ worst non-red states this year.  

Vermont: Peter Shumlin 52%  I think the PVI will let Shumlin narrowly take this one.  Vermont and Delaware will now be the only states with Jewish governors, I believe, amazing considering there are nearly a dozen senators.

Oregon: John Kitzhaber 52%  My native Oregonian father is confused how Dudley’s still in this, and so am I.  But I don’t think Dudley can pull it out.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy 53%  Another Democratic pickup.  I really know nothing about Malloy; why do people think he’s presidential material?

California: Jerry Brown 54%  I really like Jerry.  He’s funny, progressive, quirky, not beholden to the unions like many state senators, and oh yeah, NOT TRYING TO BUY THE ELECTION.  He better win 🙂

Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie 55%  It’s closer than I expected, and it might be due to race, but Abercrombie should take this pretty easily still.

Maryland: Martin O’Malley 55%  He’s remained strong through a tough economy and anti-Dem tide.  Could he someday replace Mikulski?

New Hampshire: John Lynch 57%  Lynch is very well-liked.  

Arkansas: Mike Beebe 58%  This is a great result, for Arkansas.  But Beebe may be one of the last Democratic governors of the state in the near future.  

New York: Andrew Cuomo 59%  I think people are THAT angry in New York, and Cuomo is really blah and uninspiring.  But he is up against Paladino, so the margin could be higher.

In my first diary, I examined the states from A-F.  Here, I will continue, with G-L

Georgia: Lowndes County

This county is racially representative of Georgia, at 1/3 Black.  Politically, it is as well, being Republican but not blowout territory.  It is home to Valdosta, one of three population centers in South Georgia.  The main city of Valdosta, the only urban or even suburban part of the county, is evenly split racially, with the rural areas much whiter.  Politically, it stayed Republican when Bill Clinton won the state in 1992, and last voted blue in 1976, even staying red in 1980.  Thus, it really has not been a bellwether until recently, but with Georgia’s shift rightward in the rural areas, and leftward in the metro areas, its the best bellwether county around.  It didn’t vote for Zell Miller in 1994 but otherwise has been consistent with the state in every statewide race.  

Hawaii is too small for this to be relevant

Idaho: Gooding County

I’m sure you’ve all been eagerly waiting to find out what Idaho’s bellwether is, so here you go.  This county of 15,000 people in central Idaho is consistently red, like the state.  It is more Hispanic than the state as a whole, but is still politically the same.  It has two towns, Gooding and Wendell, each around 3,000 in population.  It hasn’t voted blue anytime recently, even voting for Goldwater in a state he actually almost won.  It’s voted for the winning gubernatorial and senatorial candidate every election, although these are mostly blowouts.

Illinois: Due to the suburban/rural divide switching parties recently, there, sadly, is no bellwether county in Illinois.  Honestly, I wish there was; it would be nice to figure out who’s winning for Senate. Also, Cook County’s dominance makes this difficult. If you would like to nominate a bellwether county and explain your reasoning, comment.

Indiana: Porter County

With population nearing 170,000, this is a large county.  It is a combination of suburban and rural, and is situated in the northwest of the state, along Lake Michigan.  The main towns are Chesterton (10,000), an upper-middle class suburb

Porter (5,000), another upper-middle class suburb

Valparaiso (30,000), just plain middle-class, and home to a university (Bryce Drew, anyone?)

Portage (35,000), another middle-class suburb, slightly Hispanic (for Indiana), and home to a Latina mayor.  It went Dem in 2008 and 1996, although Indiana was red in 1996.  It’s voted with the state in all the Senatorial races, but only 1990 was close.  It did go blue by quite a large margin in the 2008 and 2004 gubernatorial elections (maybe they really don’t like Mitch Daniels), and Indiana really doesn’t have a swing county like some states.  I considered Madison Co. as well for this spot.

Iowa: Fayette County

This county of 20,000+ is the swing county in a key swing state.  It’s extremely rural, with only the 6,500 person town of Oelwein and 2,500 person town of West Union being remotely populated.  Presidentially, it has mirrored the state: blue every recent year but 2004.  It’s also been a bellwether for every gubernatorial election.  The only senatorial difference was voting against Harkin in 1990.  

Kansas: Lyon County

When Sam Bronwback loses this year, those of us who see him lose Lyon County will realize it before everyone else (yes, i’m joking).  This relatively small county contains the college town of Emporia, home to 80% of the county’s population.  It is only 2/3 White due to the large Hispanic population of much of the Great Plains.  It has Emporia St. University, a large beef plant, and a dog food plant.  Presidentially, it’s red, but not extremely so.  It voted Sebelius both times for governor, and Finney in 1990, so it’s mirrored the state.

Kentucky’s shift is so rapid that there is no bellwether.  Feel free to nominate one, though.

Louisiana: Calcasieu Parish

This county is nearing 200,000 people, although population loss means it might never get there.  Home to Lake Charles and its 75,000-ish residents, an even Black-White split.  The surrounding area is much more White, making this county pretty racially representative of the state.  It has huge oil industry ties, as well as some aerospace.  It’s also home to McNeese State University.  Surrounding small towns include:

Carlyss, home to lower middle-class whites

Iowa, an oil and cattle town home to poverty

Moss Bluff, at 10,000 people in the middle and upper-middle classes

Prien, another “suburb”, although it has only 7,000 people, and is certainly upper-middle class

Sulphur, a real suburb, at nearly 25,000 people. Very middle class and white.

Westlake, home to 5,000 more suburbanites, generally lower-middle class.

Vinton, with 3,500 more, is lower class.

This county has both the upper and lower middle classes all over the place.  Politically, it voted for both Dukakis and Clinton before flipping red.  It’s voted for the winner in all the governor and senator elections.