Here we go. FL-12 not included due to three-way confusion.
Comment and tell me what you think if you read it.
Safe Takeover:
LA-3: Jeff Landry I’m not sure when a Democrat will hold this district again
NY-29: Tom Reed We’re not even trying here, but it’s better we don’t. Need about 3 upstate GOPers in order to have safe map for incumbent Dems. Right now just Lee and Reed exist.
TN-6: Diane Black Another district that won’t be Dem for a very long time. Getting more suburban every decade.
59-41 districts:
MI-11: Thad McCotter Very conservative in a swing district, but wrong year and not a strong challenger. I wonder how Michigan redistricting will look. We need PVI in Dave’s App for it.
DE-AL: John Carney This one’s easy. Thanks for the crazies, Delaware!
LA-2: Cedric Richmond Also easy, Cao couldn’t win in ANY year. I really hope Richmond’s primaried out by someone in 2012, however. I don’t like him at all.
IN-7: Andre Carson Trending blue by the year.
NY-2: Steve Israel Put up ads early, kept wave from getting to him
NC-13: Brad Miller Definition of backbencher, but he’s a good Dem
OK-2: Dan Boren Just because of the year. Still an asshole, though
WA-6: Norm Dicks I have heard he’s corrupt, let’s not have him chair appropriations? Kthx 🙂
58-42 Districts:
CA-45: Mary Bono Mack Right candidate, wrong year. Looks to me like Prop 20 would give Bono Mack a safer district by taking out Moreno Valley and putting it in an open R seat. That’s my take, anyway. Would also add Beaumont, San Jacinto, and some High Desert area from San Bernardino County. Too bad.
NE-2: Lee Terry He’s a complete ass that nobody likes, but it’s also the wrong year. I really wish we’d gotten him in 2008.
OH-13: Betty Sutton Looked competitive until Ganley was discovered to be rapist
UT-2: Jim Matheson I wonder if GOP will try and get rid of him next year or give him safer Salt Lake district?
NY-4: Carolyn McCarthy Kinda wish she’d been chosen for Senate instead of Gillibrand. Gillibrand’s too much of a flip-flopper.
RI-1: David Cicciline I don’t buy that this is competitive when 2/3 of voters will go for a Dem or a Chafee.
ME-2: Mike Michaud Meet Maine’s next Senator.
ID-1: Walt Minnick Wow!
PA-4: Jason Altmire Perfect fit for his district
MO-5: Emmanuel Cleaver Same here.
57-43 Districts:
AR-2: Tim Griffin He’ll be here as long as he wants. Elliott didn’t have a chance.
KY-3: John Yarmuth Loved by district despite liberalism
NY-25: Dan Maffei One of safest freshmen from ’08. Future Senator replacement for Schumer?
OR-1: David Wu Will be one of two mainland Asians left in Congress, I believe.
MA-4: Barney Frank This is NOT Lean D. Sorry, Charlie.
PA-15: Charlie Dent How did Pat Toomey hold this seat?
CO-7: Ed Perlmutter I just don’t think Perlmutter is as vulnerable as people say.
NM-3: Ben Lujan Neither is Lujan. The Hispanics here turn out.
CA-44: Ken Calvert District will be pure toss-up post Prop 20. Please, can we get rid of him then? BTW, this is all based on a Prop 20 map I drew.
IL-8: Melissa Bean Lucked out with joke of a challenger. Life’s been good to her soooo far!
NY-22: Maurice Hinchey He’s not in danger, but I think this is his last relection. Saves having to combine two congresspeoples’ districts, and this is the weirdest-shaped upstate one anyway.
NJ-6: Bill Pascrell I really know nothing about this guy.
PA-17: Tim Holden He’ll be holden on to this seat for two more years, we’ll see about redistricting
TN-5: Jim Cooper Everyone says he’s not a fit for the district, but it’s no more than D+5. Nashville’s not Memphis.
56-44 Districts:
NJ-12: Rush Holt It’s amazing two people named Rush are prominent in politics, but they couldn’t be more different
TX-something: Ruben Hinojosa Also know nothing about this guy
MI-3: Justin Amash Too conservative for district, but wrong year
AZ-8: Gabby Giffords I really like her, but can she beat Kyl in 2012?
MO-3: Russ Carnahan Carnahans, they’re everywhere! RedState has some BS about how he’s anti-Catholic
CA-20: Jim Costa Hispanics turn out at low rates, but Costa’s very moderate
WV-3: Nick Rahall Incredibly racist anti-Rahall ads
FL-2: Allen Boyd Dead man walking. Wasn’t bad at all for a rural Southern Democrat. Will be missed.
GA-2: Sanford Bishop Too many Blacks in district for Keown.
IA-3: Leonard Boswell Amazing recovery, but he’s retiring in two years, I bet. Good way to go out.
OH-12: Pat Tiberi I always thought this guy was a moderate, but I checked DW-Nominate and he’s nothing of the sort.
NC-2: Bob Etheridge Yes, ElectionProjection, of COURSE he’ll lose.
NC-4: David Price Why is he vulnerable? He’s a Kanjo waiting to happen. Retire next cycle, please.
IN-8: Larry Bucshon Generic R vs. Generic D in this district? What do you think?
OR-4: Peter DeFazio Art Robinson? HA
TX-something: Henry Cuellar Another anonymous Hispanic Texas Dem, along with Hinojosa, Ortiz.
MN-1: Tim Walz Guy’s entrenched himself well, coming after a real conservative guy in Gutknecht
IA-2: Dave Loebsack Smart, progressive guy
55-45 districts: MI-9: Gary Peters Rocky is Tea Party member in suburban district. I don’t think so.
NC-11: Heath Shuler Heath, you will NEVER be speaker. Sorry.
TX-17: Bill Flores He almost lost in 2008, kind of. This is the end, Chet. Too bad.
WA-9: Adam Smith Who would’ve thought the guy who invented laissez-faire was a Democrat?
FL-24: Sandy Adams Kosmas wouldn’t have won if Feeney wasn’t corrupt
NY-21: Paul Tonko Albany area trending away from Dems, slowly.
AZ-7: Raul Grijalva Boycotting your own state? I’d primary him if I lived there. Also, the whole killing HCR thing was a dick move (do they use this expression in other places?)
CA-3: Dan Lungren Just the wrong year. He’s dead in 2012 if Bera runs again and Obama’s semi-popular.
ME-1: Chellie Pingree She’s really weak for a blue district. Don’t let her run for Senate.
TX-something: Solomon Ortiz See above
PA-6: Jim Gerlach He’s been lucky
IA-1: Bruce Braley AAF can’t get rid of him
CT-4: Jim Himes Strong Freshman
OH-1: Steve Chabot Dreihaus needed Obama and AA turnout
KS-3: Kevin Yoder Dennis Moore: Time for a new generation of leadership. My wife’s gonna run to replace me. I call bullshit on him.
IL-11: Adam Kinzinger He’s a really strong candidate. Let’s see how he votes, and if he’s eyeing a promotion.
IN-2: Joe Donnelly Donnelly might be in his last term next year.
NY-1: Tim Bishop Very popular
54-46 Districts:
WI-7: Sean Duffy Open seats are really tough to defend.
MA-6: John Tierney Tierney’s actually more liberal than most of his delegation despite more blue-collar district. Oh yeah, and his wife…
AZ-5: Harry Mitchell He’s to Tempe what LeBron is to…oh wait…
ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy Hoeven, environment, cap and trade, etc. Not looking good for Earl.
NC-7: Mike McIntyre His candidate should be in jail, in a cell with Rick Scott and Allen West.
CA-47: Loretta Sanchez What’s with Sanchezes and racial/ethnic gaffes/bigotry?
TN-4: Lincoln Davis This one might be closer than I predict. Wouldn’t be surprised if he loses.
VA-9: Rick Boucher I WOULD be surprised here
CO-4: Cory Gardner Buck will do well here, and Gardner’s Generic R.
TN-8: Stephen Fincher Tennessee’s a bloodbath this year
MN-6: Michelle Bachmann I say keep her in the House and get rid of Kline.
AR-1: Rick Crawford Historically Dem Mississippi River districts not looking so hot this year
PA-3: Mike Kelly Why isn’t this race closer?
IL-10: Dan Seals Here’s a pickup by our side. How liberal is Seals? I heard he was a Blue Dog, I think?
NY-13: Mike McMahon Asshole, but he’s our asshole.
OH-15: Steve Stivers Kilroy is a very weak candidate
FL-8: Dan Webster Grayson should look up “asshole” in Webster’s dictionary; he’ll see his picture there
KY-6: Ben Chandler Raise your hand if you knew he was the son of an MLB commish
NY-24: Mike Arcuri This one’s a shocker
53-47 Races:
OH-10: Dennis Kucinich He’s just weird…
SC-5: Mick Mulvaney Not huge loss as he’d be gone in two years anyway, either from redistricting or retirement.
AZ-3: Ben Quayle What an ass.
IL-17: Bobby Schilling He’s a one-termer if I every saw one.
WA-2: Rick Larsen District’s more conservative than you’d think, Murray could lose it narrowly.
VA-11: Gerry Connolly Getting a bit worried about this one…
NY-19: Nan Hayworth Who wouldn’t vote for a rogue ophthamologist named Nan?
MS-1: Alan Nunnellee Fear the mustache
NM-1: Martin Heinrich New Mexico’s next Senator
CA-18: Dennis Cardoza Water issues are very key here
HI-1: Colleen Hanabusa Expected it to be bigger margin
VA-2: Scott Rigell Nye’s disappointed netroots
WI-8: Reid Ribble Great name, but Kagen was great congressman
NJ-3: Jon Runyan I’m surprised, but I think he’ll win
52-48 margins:
FL-25: David Rivera Will he become entrenched fast enough?
WI-3: Ron Kind RedState’s been touting this one for months. Another “next senator”
AL-2: Bobby Bright Good fit for district
OH-16: Jim Renacci Boccieri can play with his newborn instead
MD-1: Andy Harris People don’t like him, but he’s the Republican
PA-12: Mark Critz Will be eliminated in two years
FL-22: Ron Klein In the end, West’s just plain crazy. This one may be more based on hope than gut.
NM-2: Steve Pearce Watch him try and run for senate in 2012
NH-1: Frank Guinta Corrupt. We can get him next cycle.
IL-12: Jerry Costello I don’t care how weak the opponent is. Downstate Illinois is hell this year.
CA-11: Jerry McNerney Harmer’s against public education.
NC-8: Larry Kissell I have no clue how to rate this one, little polling
PA-7: Pat Meehan Only cuz of the cycle
MO-4: Ike Skelton Retiring in two years, but won’t go out a loser
WA-8: Dave Reichert I think health could force retirement soon as well. Hope for a recovery
MS-4: Steven Palazzo Gene’s in an insanely tough district and year. Could a Brett Favre campaign visit this weekend help? He’s injured, right?
51-49 districts:
NY-20: Guy running against Scott Murphy I honestly forget his name, but this gives GOP the third district upstate to make a safe 24-4 D map.
OR-5: Scott Bruun Is it pronounced Scott Brown?
OH-6: Charlie Wilson What’s with the domestic abuse thing?
OH-18: Zack Space SEIU are idiots
GA-8: Austin Scott Sorry, RuralDem. We’ll see who’s right, and I’ll admit it if I’m not.
VA-5: Rob Hurt Perriello closer than Nye would make me happy
MA-10: Bill Keating How’s Perry still in this?
CO-3: John Salazar Popular
NY-23: Bill Owens Hoffman saved him
IL-14: Randy Hultgren It’s the environment
IN-9: Baron Hill HoosierDem will be happy
TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez I heard he’s winning.
MI-7: Mark Schauer Walberg is flawed
MN-8: Jim Oberstar I agree with Mark, I could see him losing
PA-8: Mike Fitzpatrick Would instantly be most moderate GOPer
NH-2: Charlie Bass He’s really not moderate, if you look at the record
50-50 races
WV-1: David McKinley I say R pickup either way, Oliverio’s not staying if R’s take House
AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick Optimistic about Navajo
SD-AL: Kristi Noem Driving record almost brings her down
MI-1: Dan Benishek A new Dr. Dan
NV-3: Joe Heck Just switched this one today.
PA-10: Tom Marino How is he winning?
PA-11: Paul Kanjorski How is HE winning? Remember when we all “knew” Kanjo would lose, Carney would win?
I literally have Speaker Boehner by one seat…wow.
Tomko is actually in NY-21.
NY-29: Tom Reed We’re not even trying here, but it’s better we don’t. Need about 3 upstate GOPers in order to have safe map for incumbent Dems. Right now just Lee and Reed exist.
I think we need 2 upstate R districts, and one NY R district [Kings] to make the others safe D.
The problem is that CD29 is in the wrong spot to make the other districts, if all won by Ds, safe. The district maps are just too convoluted.
Ive worked at the problem some, and I feel that a 2nd safe D district, based in eastern Monroe county, based on the D portions of CD29 and CD25 would be the easiest solution.
Any reasonable looking D gerrymander of upstate eliminates CD24, with its population parcelled out to the neighboring districts.
If NY loses 2 seats instead of 1, CD19 just disappears by the time you work northward, with, again 2 upstate R districts.
The 2nd R district would be centered on Oneida, taking in the north central R counties from CD20 and CD23. Even at that, CD20, comprising the Hudson River counties, would be at Obama 55.
Where’s NM-01? I hope you don’t think that Heinrich is less vulnerable than Lujan is.
As for Steve Pearce, I hope that idiot tries to run statewide again, it’ll be a pleasure stomping his ass by a double digit margin again.
So what if I prove you wrong on Tuesday? 😉
cause I think we can win all the 50-50 seats you have going to the GOP as well as all the 51-49 ones minus maybe Marshall simply because any gap in turnout will be felt hardest in the reddest districts and I think they wanted to get rid of him in 2006 and would have if dems had not been motivated. Also think we can hold NM-02 and OH-16. Also think the GOP is overestamted in IL-17. I think we can hold the house but it’s also possible that several of the dem seats you mentioned could fall and make up the difference. I think the seats I mentioned above along with the Dem holds mentioned in the post that have a less then 52-48 margin will be the firewall for determining who wins control. Either way though I don’t expect either party to have a +10 seat majority.