Bellwether Counties: Analysis, Part 2

In my first diary, I examined the states from A-F.  Here, I will continue, with G-L

Georgia: Lowndes County

This county is racially representative of Georgia, at 1/3 Black.  Politically, it is as well, being Republican but not blowout territory.  It is home to Valdosta, one of three population centers in South Georgia.  The main city of Valdosta, the only urban or even suburban part of the county, is evenly split racially, with the rural areas much whiter.  Politically, it stayed Republican when Bill Clinton won the state in 1992, and last voted blue in 1976, even staying red in 1980.  Thus, it really has not been a bellwether until recently, but with Georgia’s shift rightward in the rural areas, and leftward in the metro areas, its the best bellwether county around.  It didn’t vote for Zell Miller in 1994 but otherwise has been consistent with the state in every statewide race.  

Hawaii is too small for this to be relevant

Idaho: Gooding County

I’m sure you’ve all been eagerly waiting to find out what Idaho’s bellwether is, so here you go.  This county of 15,000 people in central Idaho is consistently red, like the state.  It is more Hispanic than the state as a whole, but is still politically the same.  It has two towns, Gooding and Wendell, each around 3,000 in population.  It hasn’t voted blue anytime recently, even voting for Goldwater in a state he actually almost won.  It’s voted for the winning gubernatorial and senatorial candidate every election, although these are mostly blowouts.

Illinois: Due to the suburban/rural divide switching parties recently, there, sadly, is no bellwether county in Illinois.  Honestly, I wish there was; it would be nice to figure out who’s winning for Senate. Also, Cook County’s dominance makes this difficult. If you would like to nominate a bellwether county and explain your reasoning, comment.

Indiana: Porter County

With population nearing 170,000, this is a large county.  It is a combination of suburban and rural, and is situated in the northwest of the state, along Lake Michigan.  The main towns are Chesterton (10,000), an upper-middle class suburb

Porter (5,000), another upper-middle class suburb

Valparaiso (30,000), just plain middle-class, and home to a university (Bryce Drew, anyone?)

Portage (35,000), another middle-class suburb, slightly Hispanic (for Indiana), and home to a Latina mayor.  It went Dem in 2008 and 1996, although Indiana was red in 1996.  It’s voted with the state in all the Senatorial races, but only 1990 was close.  It did go blue by quite a large margin in the 2008 and 2004 gubernatorial elections (maybe they really don’t like Mitch Daniels), and Indiana really doesn’t have a swing county like some states.  I considered Madison Co. as well for this spot.

Iowa: Fayette County

This county of 20,000+ is the swing county in a key swing state.  It’s extremely rural, with only the 6,500 person town of Oelwein and 2,500 person town of West Union being remotely populated.  Presidentially, it has mirrored the state: blue every recent year but 2004.  It’s also been a bellwether for every gubernatorial election.  The only senatorial difference was voting against Harkin in 1990.  

Kansas: Lyon County

When Sam Bronwback loses this year, those of us who see him lose Lyon County will realize it before everyone else (yes, i’m joking).  This relatively small county contains the college town of Emporia, home to 80% of the county’s population.  It is only 2/3 White due to the large Hispanic population of much of the Great Plains.  It has Emporia St. University, a large beef plant, and a dog food plant.  Presidentially, it’s red, but not extremely so.  It voted Sebelius both times for governor, and Finney in 1990, so it’s mirrored the state.

Kentucky’s shift is so rapid that there is no bellwether.  Feel free to nominate one, though.

Louisiana: Calcasieu Parish

This county is nearing 200,000 people, although population loss means it might never get there.  Home to Lake Charles and its 75,000-ish residents, an even Black-White split.  The surrounding area is much more White, making this county pretty racially representative of the state.  It has huge oil industry ties, as well as some aerospace.  It’s also home to McNeese State University.  Surrounding small towns include:

Carlyss, home to lower middle-class whites

Iowa, an oil and cattle town home to poverty

Moss Bluff, at 10,000 people in the middle and upper-middle classes

Prien, another “suburb”, although it has only 7,000 people, and is certainly upper-middle class

Sulphur, a real suburb, at nearly 25,000 people. Very middle class and white.

Westlake, home to 5,000 more suburbanites, generally lower-middle class.

Vinton, with 3,500 more, is lower class.

This county has both the upper and lower middle classes all over the place.  Politically, it voted for both Dukakis and Clinton before flipping red.  It’s voted for the winner in all the governor and senator elections.