I’m gonna try my best at communities of interest and all that jazz. It actually doesn’t look too bad for Team Blue.
We begin up North.
1st District: Wally Herger R+6.
Cities: Redding, Chico, Eureka. Basically combines parts of the three districts which went up North into one mammoth district for Wally Herger. The Democrat, even in a good year, probably couldn’t win because of the extremely liberal bases of Humboldt County and Chico, where a ton of primary votes would come from.
82 W
2nd-green: Mike Thompson D+5
Cities: Napa, Davis, Yuba City/Marysville
Combining the South halves of the 1st and 2nd, Thompson gets a reasonably safe district, with the liberal coast and college town Davis cancelling out the Valley. 66 W, 22 H
3rd-purple: Tom McClintock R+8
Cities: Roseville, Rocklin, South Lake Tahoe
Rooted in the Sacramento suburbs and extending into the Sierra, this district resembles much of the old 3rd in shape, but not territory. McClintock is fine here. 84 W.
4th-red: Dan Lungren R+3
Cities: Citrus Hts, Folsom, Elk Grove
Sadly, without splitting Sacramento, you can’t make Lungren a goner, but he’s in danger nearly every election here. However, a more moderate Republican, like Doug Ose, who used to represent the area, would be pretty safe. 72 W, 11 H
5th-yellow: Doris Matsui D+17
Cities: Sacramento
The district goes from Sacramento and takes in bits of two towns, West Sacramento and Woodland, that are in Yolo County. It doesn’t look pretty, but that’s because of large voting districts that a real redistricting could fix. And Matsui? She’s fine. 45 W, 21 H, 15 A, 13 B.
6th-teal: Lynn Woolsey D+23
Cities: Santa Rosa, Novato, Petaluma
Very little change here.
75 W, 15 H
7th-pink: George Miller D+18
Cities: Richmond, Vallejo, Vacaville, Fairfiled
Following I-80 betweeen the Bay Bridge and Sacramento, this district is safe for any Democrat. 43 W, 20 H, 17 B, 15 A
8th-purple: Nancy Pelosi D+33
Cities: San Francisco, Sausalito
Adding a bit of Marin County and shedding some of the city, this district’s only major change is it now has the entire Golden Gate Bridge! 47 W, 29 A, 13 H
9th-light blue: Barbara Lee D+36
Cities: Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro, Alameda
A bit more compact, but essentially the same. 35 W, 25 B, 18 A, 18 H
10th-gray: Open–Mark DeSaulnier D+12
Cities: Concord, Antioch, Walnut Creek, Pittsburg
This is basically DeSaulnier’s if he wants it, he’s already representing most of it as a State Senator, and he clearly has higher ambitions, running in the primary last year for the open 10th. 67 W, 14 H, 10 A
11th-green: John Garamendi D+5
Cities: Stockton, Modesto (half), Oakley
It’s ugly because I had to make it so that Hispanics could be a majority of the primary electorate, or so I’m hoping (with high turnout). VRA makes everything gross. Garamendi would probably choose to run in the 10th instead, challenging DeSaulnier again. 47 W, 29 H, 12 A
12th-blue: Jackie Speier D+22
Cities: San Francisco (part), San Mateo
Hopefully our future Senator in 2018, when DiFi retires, Speier basically has the same district. It’s tough to gerrymander a peninsula! 46 W, 27 A, 19 H.
13th-salmon: Pete Stark or Jerry McNerney D+15
Cities: Fremont (part), Hayward, Livermore, Tracy
McNerney’s finally safe. Hopefully Pete Stark, an embarrassment to California, the Democratic Party, and the USA, retires. For non-Californians, Tracy is bascially part of the Bay Area although it’s in a different county and in the Valley. 49 W, 21 H, 19 A
14th-olive: Anna Eshoo D+21
Cities: Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Redwood City, Palo Alto
I hate how my district always has such ugly colors, but it’s OK, cuz Eshoo’s still here!
53 W, 25 A, 16 H
15th-orange: Mike Honda D+14
Cities: San Jose (South), Gilroy, Campbell
Honda gets the more moderate South county, but it’s such a small percentage of the district it doesn’t matter. 53 W, 23 H, 18 A
16th-green: Zoe Lofgren D+19
Cities: San Jose (North), Fremont (part), Newark
This district is finally, a plurality-Asian district in California (the first ever, I believe). And I did it by accident!
34 A, 34 H, 25 W
17th-purple: Sam Farr D+20
Cities: Santa Cruz, Salinas, Monterey
By far the most common-sense way to draw this district. Takes in ultra-liberal Santa Cruz (the place my liberal family makes fun of for being crazy liberal) and the Steinbeck Salad Bowl, as I call this area to the South of it. 53 W, 36 H.
19th-pink: Jim Costa vs. Dennis Cardoza D+5
Cities: Fresno (part), Merced
Another VRA district in the valley, this one majority, but much cleaner-looking than the previous incarnation. Would be an interesting primary. 54 H, 28 W.
18th-yellow: Jeff Denham R+6
Cities: Modesto (part), Manteca, Turlock
The lone Democratic casualty on this map is Cardoza, although he probably would just run against Costa instead. A Central Valley/Sierra hybrid district, this is suited better for Denham, who lives on the border of the district.
60 W, 29 H
20th-green: Open: Fmr St Rep. Mike Villines R+10
Cities: Fresno (part), Clovis, Madera
Villines, who’s been looking to move up to higher office, has a seat tailor-made for him here.
53 W, 35 H
21st-dark brown: Devin Nunes R+13
Cities: Visalia, Hanford, Tulare
A very conservative majority-minority district, due to high illegal immigrant populations and low Hispanic turnout among citizens. Nunes is fine here. 46 W, 42 H.
22nd-lighter brown: Kevin McCarthy R+11
Cities: Bakersfield, Santa Clarita (part)
Rising star McCarthy gets some of LA County, but it’s the conservative Northern half, so he should be fine. 54 W, 33 H.
23rd-light blue: Lois Capps D+4
Cities: Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Paso Robles
Capps may have to being campaigning again, but at least it won’t be a day’s drive from one end of the district to the other anymore. This district is quite compact. 63 W, 28 H.
24th-purple: Elton Gallegly D+3
Cities: Ventura, Oxnard, Simi Valley
Basically the rest of Ventura County minus some of Thousand Oaks, Gallegly’s district just got shifted left enough that I’m guessing he retires. The problem, of course, is we have absolutely no bench in Ventura County, so I guess we’ll see who turns up. 54 W, 35 H.
25th-rose: Buck McKeon R+9
Cities: Lancaster, Palmdale, Victorville, Hesperia
While McKeon doesn’t actually live here, it’s a safe bet he’d run anyways rather than go against Brad Sherman. I saw DrPhillips combine the Antelope Valley instead of attaching Lancaster/Palmdale to LA proper, and I like the idea. As does Buck. 56 W, 28 H, 10 B.
26th-olive: Open-St. Rep. Anthony Portantino D+11
Cities: Pasadena, Glendale
This district for former La Canada Flintridge Mayor Portantino. Republicans don’t really have much of a chance here. 44 W, 24 H, 20 A.
27th-gray: Brad Sherman D+7
Cities: Los Angeles, Santa Clarita (part), Thousand Oaks (part)
By moving westward a bit, it becomes less Democratic than the state as a whole, but that’s blue enough for Sherman. 63 W, 21 H.
28th-bright green: Howard Berman D+19
Cities: Los Angeles
You knew those San Fernando Valley Hispanics Berman’s been dreading had to go somewhere, and with Prop. 20 passing, they’re in his district. I still think he can win, however. Race-based challenges (see Herenton, Willie) are stupid and usually failures). 59 H, 24 W.
29th-pink: Adam Schiff D+20
Cities: Los Angeles, Burbank, Beverly Hills
Schiff’s district moves West, taking in a lot of Waxman’s and becoming even more blue in the process. Think Schiff will leave the Blue Dogs? 64 W, 20 H.
30th-salmon: Henry Waxman D+28
Cities: Los Angeles, Santa Monica, Inglewood
Waxman’s district turns browner (a.k.a. more minorities), and I’m betting the next representative after him will be a member of one of those groups. Until then, he’s safe. 42 W, 25 H, 17 B, 11 A.
31st-yellow: Xavier Becerra D+28
Cities: Los Angeles
Future speaker Becerra gets a similar, more compact district. 63 H, 16 A, 14 W.
32nd-orange: Judy Chu D+21
Cities: East Los Angeles, Pico Rivera, El Monte
Little change here, either, except for compactness. Chu’s safe. 68 H, 22 A, 7 W.
33rd-blue: Lucille Roybal-Allard D+36
Cities: Los Angeles, Huntington Park
South Central gets a Hispanic representative. That’s basically all the news here. 67 H, 20 B, just 3% white
34th-green: Karen Bass or Maxine Waters D+37
Cities: Los Angeles, Compton, Gardena
I really hope Waters retires. Enough said. 49 H, 39 B, 4 W.
35th-purple: Gary Miller or St. Rep. Ed Hernandez D+9
Cities: Whittier, West Covina, Diamond Bar
There’s no way a corrupt conservative survives here. But that’s good for Hernandez, and California’s Hispanic representation, which now goes up by one. 55 H, 22 W, 18 A.
36th-orange: Jane Harman D+7
Cities: Torrance, Carson
Harman is actually a better fit for this district than her old one. 43 W, 30 H, 17 A.
37th-blue: Laura Richardson or Linda Sanchez D+13
Cities: Long Beach, Lakewood
My money’s on Sanchez. And down goes a third corrupt incumbent. Wow, Prop 20 is doing wonders. 37 H, 31 W, 16 A, 12 B.
38th-pale green: Grace Napolitano D+17
Cities: Downey, Norwalk, Lynwood
A generic backbencher, Napolitano is still safe. 70 H, 16 W.
39th-pale yellow: David Dreier or St. Rep. Norma Torres D+1
Cities: Chino, Pomona, Glendora
Surprisingly, Dreier could survive here. I wouldn’t put it past him. But his days are numbered either way due to age, and a Hispanic Democrat probably has the seat afterwards. 40 H, 39 W, 11 A
40th-maroon: Ed Royce R+8
Cities: Fullerton, Anaheim, Orange
Bank-backer Royce will turn out OK here. It actually gets more conservative. 48 W, 36 H, 11 A.
47th-gray: Loretta Sanchez D+4
Cities: Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Buena Park
Similar to the current district. Sanchez will be in fights but probably survive every year. 55 H, 22 W, 18 A.
46th-orange: Dana Rohrabacher R+7
Cities: Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Westminster
Doesn’t change too much, either, but gets impenetrable again by shedding its portion of Long Beach. 60 W, 20 H, 16 A.
43rd-pink: Joe Baca D+8
Cities: Ontario, Rancho Cucamonga, Rialto
Noted asshole Joe Baca, sadly, still has a district in the Inland Empire. I think he’ll be safe. 51 H, 31 W, 11 B.
44th-maroon?: Ken Calvert D+0
Cities: Riverside, Corona, Norco
Calvert gets a very compact district (no more O.C.) and Bill Hedrick gets a House seat, although he’ll be vulnerable every non-wave cycle in it. 46 W, 38 H.
41st-gray: Jerry Lewis R+3
Cities: San Bernardino, Redlands, Yucaipa
Corrupt douche Lewis will have to be on his toes, but I think he’ll be fine with all the pork he brings back. It’s a toss-up when open, though. 50 W, 32 H.
42nd-green: St. Sen Bill Emmerson R+2
Cities: Moreno Valley, Lake Elsinore, Hemet
Our lack of a bench here is killing us. This would be competitive if there were an elected official in the district on our side. But I think it’s Emmerson’s, although not for too many years. 50 W, 33 H.
45th-blue: Mary Bono Mack D+2
Cities: Palm Springs, Indio, El Centro
Mack can go live in Florida full-time now. Steve Pougnet’s got this one. 51 H, 42 W.
48th-orange: John Campbell R+4
Cities: Irvine, Tustin, San Juan Capistrano
Campbell’s district is a decade away from toss-up territory, so he’s fine. 68 W, 14 H, 13 A.
49th-reddish: Darrell Issa R+10
Cities: Oceanside, Temecula, San Clemente
This district picks up everything that didn’t fit into communities of interest and gives it to ImpeachMeister Issa. 64 W, 23 H.
50th-pale blue: Brian Bilbray R+7
Cities: Carlsbad, Poway, Escondido
A sane California Republican, Bilbray gets a safe district as well. Unlike Duncan Hunter…68 W, 20 H.
51st-brown: Susan Davis D+7
Cities: San Diego
Davis gets the North half of the city, same as before, but it looks nice now. 61 W, 15 H, 15 A.
52nd-white: Bob Filner D+11
Cities: San Diego, La Mesa, Lemon Grove
Filner might not quite live here, but it’s close, and there’s no doubt he’d rather run here. 40 W, 33 H, 12 B, 11 A.
53rd-greenish: Duncan Hunter R+3
Cities: Chula Vista, El Cajon, San Ysidro
All it takes is a normal map and Hunter is vulnerable. However, I think he can still win it. 49 W, 35 H.
So there you go:
Incumbents gone:
Maxine Waters—primary
Laura Richardson—primary
Pete Stark—primary
Jim Costa—primary
Elton Gallegly—retiremnt, FLIP
Ken Calvert—FLIP
Gary Miller—FLIP
Mary Bono Mack—FLIP
Possibly also:
David Dreier—FLIP
Duncan Hunter—FLIP
Jerry Lewis—FLIP
Please comment!
doesn’t look that bad for Democrats. Interesting fact, the part of Cardoza’s district that snakes into Stockton is called the “Stockton Finger.”
I’m not sure Sanchez would beat Richardson, all of Long Beach, minus the white parts that are in the current CA-46 is in Richardson’s district, while Sanchez’s district is split between two other districts. Most of Richardson’s district is still there, minus Compton and Carson which makes sense to put it in a real AA district.
A little nitpicky in terms of communities of interest, i think Walnut should be in the 34th District, because it and Diamond Bar are both largely Asian communities, trade in Covina for Walnut even though the Hispanic % might go down to 53%. Also for CA-44, Corona should be in the new CA-42 because of the similar medium income of it and the other CA-42 cities. Switching Corona for Moreno Valley would make CA-44 hugely Democratic, much like CA-45. Also, lol “ImpeachMeister Issa”.
The Central Valley could end up looking similar to your map, as I think Hispanic interest in the valley will suggest keep two district majority or plurality Hispanic.
I also drew out Pete Stark, except I put him up against Mike Honda.
Richardson vs. Sanchez is interesting and makes sense when taking compactness in account.
Riverside County is drawn very plausibly. The Moreno Valley, Hemet district is a classic swing district, but as you mentioned, there is no bench here.
Overall, this would be fair map.
is 58, he’s not leaving soon cause of age!
but good map and good job overall!
I’ve got to disagree, there’s a lot that can be done here. In some cases I shrug and say ‘what’s the point’, but the possibility does exist.
Having lived there for 10+ years, you live in two different worlds depending on whether you drive the 101 or the 280.
On the 101, down at 5ft above sea level, the landscape is ugly (to me), lots of apartment complexes, heavily Latino.
On the 280, up in the hills, lily-white/Asian, rich single-family homes (at least between the 380 and the 85).
It changes once you get up to Daly City and Bayshore, to be sure.
But I’ve got to refer you to another recent diary on redistricting CA, which brought Barbara Lee’s district across the bay into Bayshore (SE SF) & created an intersting minority-dominated district combining Daly City with the precincts hugging the Bay and parts of east San Jose.
Except for one REALLY BIG quibble: you split Marin County!!
As a Marin County resident, I will admit that I am biased but even I can understand putting West Marin in another district. Splitting Tiburon and Belvedere is basically illegal under any map that has to follow communities of interest. Those towns are basically the same town with different boundries. Also, Sausalito may be separated from Mill Valley but it should be in the same district. Those areas are pretty similar.
It’s weird seeing California with only 53 districts after working on my 69-district map, but I think this is a good forecast of what we could expect the commission to draw.
She won by “only” 10 points this year in an R+3 district, but note that a right-wing third party candidate got 6.4% of the vote. She also got 58% in 2008. Vulnerable, yes, but nowhere near a sure flip.
Are you saying there is absolutely no way we can draw districts based on “communities of interest” (whatever that means) and not flip at least 7 GOP reps?
How can the biggest and bluest state in the nation, where Obama won the largest presidential popular vote margin since LBJ, still have the larget GOP delegation after Texas? That’s just teh crazy!
After losing the last of the blue dogs in rural America, a durable Dem majority can only happen if we cut the CA GOP delegation down by at least half: Drier, Gallegly, Bono-Mack, Calvert, Bilbray, Lungren and either Rohrabahcer/McKeon/Miller must be gerrymandered out. There is no other way.
This map contains a few errors. For one, Merced County is a VRA jurisdiction and cannot be broken up. There may be similar errors elsewhere.
now about the effect of Prop 20’s new commission will have on our Dem districts.
Some have been speculating the impact wasn’t going be too terrible, but it’s nice to see a map before one’s eyes to see that actually might be so. (even though it appears you did use partisan data while mapping, so you did cheat a tiny bit)