Author: jncca

In nearly every state, there are certain bellwether counties that are good indicators of which candidate will win the state, barring extreme regional polarization.  In this post, I will examine the bellwether counties for every single state, barring the few that don’t seem to have one.

Alabama: Tuscaloosa County

  Home to the University of Alabama, this is not a generic rural Alabama district.  However, it is one of only a few counties with a white majority and a large black minority.  Home to Tuscaloosa, the fifth largest city in the state, it is relatively urban/suburban.  A Dixiecrat like Bobby Bright could probably win the state without this county by doing well in rural areas, but any other Democrat needs to win here.  The college voters provide a base that leans Republican but is still gettable for a conservaDem.  Besides the city of Tuscaloosa, this county has one suburb, Northport, and then outlying rural areas.  Seeing how conservative this area generally is shows just how hard it is for a Democrat to win statewide in Alabama.  It last voted for a Democrat for President in 1976, the last time the state was won by one.  The last Senate candidate to win it was Dick Shelby in 1992, before he switched parties.  It did vote for Siegelman in 2002 when he barely lost.  

Alaska doesn’t have counties, so I’m not listing it here.  

Arizona: Najavo County

While demographically not at all representative of Arizona, it is politically.  Despite being plurality Native American, the extremely conservative White base makes this a county that leans Republican, much like the state it is a part of.  Mostly rural and including huge Navajo, Apache, and Hopi reservations, the county last voted for a Democrat statewide in Janet Napolitano’s 2006 gubernatorial romp.  Dennis DeConcini’s 1988 election was the last time it did for Senate, however, and Bill Clinton won it both times.  

Other states will continue to be added over the flip:

Arkansas: Howard County

Tiny Howard County serves as the bellwether of one of the fastest-shifting states in the nation.  Although its population is under 15,000, it is demographically close to the state as a whole (a bit over 20% Black).  It is a dry county.  Presidentially, it last voted for a Democrat in 1996 (not surprisingly).  It’s voted for the winning candidate (read Democrat) in every Senate election in the past 20 years, as well as the winning candidate in every governor election (Beebe, Huckabee, Tucker, Clinton) in that time-span.  Like most of Arkansas, it is a very poor county.

California: Imperial and San Benito Counties

Both these counties are similar, they flipped blue in 1992 like California and haven’t turned back; they both are majority Hispanic, and they are both quite rural.  San Benito County, home of the acclaimed Hollister, is in the Salinas Valley and the rural mountains east of it.  Imperial County is on the Mexican and Arizona borders and is home to El Centro, Calexico, Brawley, and Imperial, all of which are probably best classified as large towns.  2/3 speak Spanish as their first language, but due to non-citizenship of many, the county is only moderately Democratic.  They both voted for Arnold twice, but voted for Gray Davis twice before voting to recall him just one year later.  However, San Benito County voted for Feinstein over Wilson in 1990.  They both voted against Feinstein in her first election to the Senate, 1994, and San Benito also voted against Boxer in 1992.  

Colorado: Larimer County

This should come as no surprise to anybody that followed the 2008 election, with this being key to Obama and Betsy Markey’s victories.  Larimer County is the 7th-largest in the state.  Racially, it is a bit less Latino than the state, but it has many moderate surburbanites and is well-educated, much like Colorado.  The main population centers are Fort Collins, the fifth largest city in the state, and its smaller southern neighbor, Loveland.  Together, they comprise the Ft. Collins Metro Area, which is kind of part of the Denver Area as well.  It went blue in both 2008 and 1992, the years that Democrats won the state in recent times.  For Senate, it has mirrored the state in every election since 1990 (all my data goes back to that year, so when I say in every election, I mean since then).  For Governor, it has done the same, making it a perfect bellwether county.

Connecticut: New London County

Yes, counties don’t matter in New England, but they will here.  In the Southeast of the state, this county flipped along with the state in 1992.  The main towns are New London, Groton, and Norwich, and it is home to the Coast Guard Academy.  With the outlier of 1994, when it voted 3rd party for governor, it has gone along with the state in every statewide election.  It is the base of Joe Courtney’s congressional district.

Delaware is too small for this to be relevant

Florida: Hillsborough County

Located along the famed I-4 corridor, this is one of the most famed swing counties.  The last time it didn’t support the statewide presidential winner (in a swing state, no less) was 1960, when it voted for Kennedy.  In the other close elections (2004,2000,1992, 1976, 1968, 1964) it always went with the state.  In 1994, it voted Bush over Chiles for Governor, and it voted Castor over Martinez in 2004, but on the whole, it’s very accurate at predicting who will win the state.  Look for it in November to see if Alex Sink will win.  The county itself is very large, at 1.2 million people and still growing.  It’s a little under 60% White, relatively close to the state’s population.  Tampa, at 350,000 people, is nearing the top 50 nationwide.  The city is barely majority-minority.  There are also many suburbs:

  Plant City, a large strawberry producer. and located in the rural eastern part of the county

  Temple Terrace, built pre-Depression as a golf community

  Bloomingdale, an affluent community

  University, home of USF, a very poor community, with 30%+ in poverty

  Riverview, a middle-class suburb

  Egypt Lake-Leto, a poor Hispanic suburb

  Keystone, a very affluent suburb

  Lake Magdalene, middle class as well

  Palm River, a middle-class diverse area

  Brandon, the largest suburb at nearly 100,000 people.  

  Lutz, upper-middle class

  Citrus Park, another diverse middle-class area

  Westchase, another wealthy area

  Town n Country, home to 80,000 and a mix of White and Hispanic

  Greater Northdale, upper middle class

  Greater Carrolwood, see above

   

for Ryan in DelCo, with love.  I’d really like your input, I’ve only been to Pa. once, and only in DelCo and Philly.

But here we go:

I re-numbered, but I’ll put ’08 totals and new totals for Prez election, and note local party strength, if different.

PA-1: Bob Brady-dark blue

Majority-Black and less-convoluted looking, keeps W. Philly and the most Dem/Black parts of Delaware County—Chester, Upper Darby, Yeadon, Darby.  Brady or any other Democrat should be insanely safe, at D+35.

PA-2: Chaka Fattah-green

I actually don’t know if Fattah would live here or in the first, but a progressive, likely Black Dem would be elected here anyways.  It’s plurality, but not majority, Black.  C. Philly + Cheltenham and Springfield. Loses 3 points to become only D+33.

PA-3 (old PA-13): Allyson Schwartz-purple

Schwartz gets safer, going from D+5 to D+8.  She gets Norristown and Lower Merion from Gerlach, and Providence, Lower Merion, Radnor, Haverford, Upper Darby from Meehan (I’m assuming Meehan and Barletta win, and Murphy and Dahlkemper are toss-ups) and gives up Abington, Bryn Athyn to Murphpatrick (I’m combining the names) and New Hanover, Lower Salford to Gerlach. In the end, these three suburban districts (6,7,13 in the old plan) look simpler and remain one D, one R, one Toss.

PA-4 (old PA-8): Murphpatrick-red

This goes from D+1 to D+3, but it’s what I have to do to protect Gerlach.  Adds surprisingly Republican NE Philly from Schwartz, keeps Lower Bucks Co, giving the upper part to Gerlach, and creates the new, more compact, suburban district.

PA-5 (old PA-6): Jim Gerlach-yellow

Gets Northern Bucks Co. from Murphpatrick, gets Upper Montgomery from Schwartz, some of Upper Berks from Holden, and loses some of Chester to Meehan.  Goes from D+5 to R+2, making Gerlach safe in at least neutral cycles.

PA-6 (old PA-7): Pat Meehan-turquoise

Meehan inherits Sestak’s district, lose E Delaware Co. to Schwartz, and adds the Southern Half of Chester Co., Lancaster Co, and SE York Co. to make this way more Republican and rural.  Goes from D+3 to R+1.  Meehan, who I believe is not a wingnut (correct me if I’m wrong), should be fine here, with the GOP county-level strength in these areas.

PA-7 (old PA-17): Tim Holden-gray

OK, this isn’t really the old PA-17, but Holden lives here.  Knowing that there is no way Holden can be knocked off, the smart thing is to give him such a Democratic district that Barletta is safe and Dent’s district can keep the same PVI.  This combines urban/minority-heavy areas of Reading, Harrisburg, and Lancaster, and then adds rural areas to move Holden from R+6 to D+2.  He could be subject to a primary, but it probably wouldn’t be smart.  It’s only 73% White, which I think is fourth lowest in the state.  

PA-8 (old PA-16): periwinkle

Joe Pitts doesn’t live here, and he’s old enough to go into a nice retirement, unless he wants to run against Meehan, which probably wouldn’t be smart.  This district has a lot of terrain from both Holden and Pitts plus a bit from Shuster.  Goes from R+6 to R+13, so definitely safe for any Republican.

PA-9 (old PA-19): Todd Platts-light blue

Almost all of Platts’ old terrain, minus N. York Co. which goes to Holden, is combined with some Pennsyltucky Shuster counties to move this from R+11 to R+14.  

PA-10 (old PA-15): Charlie Dent-pink

This district remains D+3, but adds E. Schuylkill from Holden.  However, still very similar to the old district, meaning a toss-up in a Dem-leaning year and lean R in a neutral one.

PA-11: Lou Barletta-light green

Barletta gets to keep his district number, but gets a much more friendly district, adding area from Carney and Holden, and losing the most industrial areas of the county.  Here he can remain anti-illegal immigrant and do OK, he goes from D+4 to R+7.

PA-12 (old PA-10): Chris Carney-blue

Carney benefits from the switch with Barletta, getting the Scranton-WilkesBarre area plus a lot of his old district.  He should be fine here, and goes from R+9 to D+1.  Could a primary be in order? It might not be super smart, but it could happen.

PA-13 (old PA-5): GT Thompson-salmon

This district barely changes, going from R+10 to R+9.

PA-14 (old PA-3): Mike Kelly? or Open-orange

I have no clue where Kelly lives. Otherwise, this is open but Safe R.  It has rural areas and Pitt suburbs in the more conservative parts. The more GOP parts of PA-3 and PA-4 go here, moving it from R+4 to R+11, and the more Democratic parts go…

PA-15 (old PA-4): Jason Altmire/Kathy Dahlkemper-puke color

Here, where Altmire would probably prevail.  It takes border manufacturing areas from the aforementioned districts and adds a bit of Washington Co.  Altmire, Carney, and Holden, the three ConservaDems who will survive this year, all suddenly have swing districts, leaving GOP areas for Republicans.  This one goes from R+10 to D+2.  Local Dem strength makes this even higher

PA-16 (old PA-14): Mike Doyle-bright green

Doyle, the most moderate Dem Republicans could hope for from this area, keeps a similar district, but adding more conservative suburbs from Tim Murphy to go from D+17 to D+12.  

PA-17 (old PA-18): Tim Murphy-purple

Tim Murphy, one of the most moderate Republicans after LoBiondo, Ros-Lehtinen, and that’s about it, keeps a district with the same PVI: R+10, but it looks waaaay more compact.  

PA-18 (old PA-9 and PA-12): Bud Shuster and Mark Critz-yellow

Critz’s R+5 combined with Shuster’s R+18 equals an R+12 that Critz probably can’t win.

Final Total (2010-2012)

If 2 Dems lose in 2010: Sestak’s seat, Kanjorski, Critz, Dahlkemper

If 3: Same total + possibly Murphy

If 4: Same total.

So, 4 or 5 seats will be lost.  At least 2 from redistricting, eliminating Critz and Dahlkemper.

Here’s part 4 of my series on the 1994 House elections.

Andrea Seastrand, Santa Barbara: When Michael Huffington ran for the Senate, Seastrand defeated Walter Capps by .8% and lost in 1996 in a less Republican year after being targeted by the unions.  She’s currently director of the California Space Authority.  

Bob Barr, Atlanta Suburbs: After very narrowly losing the primary runoff for U.S. Senate in 1992 won by Paul Coverdell, Barr won the primary for this seat by about 14 points, then defeated five and a half term incumbent George Darden by 4.  In Congress, he was very conservative, but not actually that libertarian before losing due to redistricting in a primary with John Linder in 2002.  He somehow became a libertarian while out of office.  

Mike Flanagan, Chicago: Recently deceased Dan Rostenkowski, who had been in office since 1959, was in a bit of a corruption scandal, eventually ending up in prison.  Mike Flanagan is probably the only Republican from this class I would have voted for, due to the corruption.  Flanagan won by six point, but lost by 28% in 1996 after a non-corrupt candidate, Rod Blagojevich (oh wait…) was nominated.  

John Hostettler, W. Indiana: Hostettler defeated six-term incumbent Frank McCloskey by 4%, lasting until 2006, when he was crushed by Brad Ellsworth due to wingnuttieness/allergy to fundraising

Jim Longley, Coastal Maine: Longley won a close open seat race by 4% after Tom Andrews ran for the Senate vs. Olympia Snowe.  He lost by ten points to Tom Allen in a more neutral year, 1996.  

Dick Chrysler, C. Michigan: Chrysler won an open seat by seven points and lost the next cycle to Debbie Stabenow by ten percent.  He was/is a flat taxer, but I don’t really know much about him.

Dick Chrysler replaced Bob Carr in the House from Michigan.

Gil Gutknecht, S. Minnesota: Gutknecht cruised to victory by ten points in this rural open seat.  He was a more moderate Republican.  In 2006, he ran for re-election, violating his six-term pledge.  His aides edited his Wikipedia article to make him look good, always a bad idea.  He lost by six points to Tim Walz.

Bill Martini, C. Jersey: Martini defeated freshman Herb Klein by one percent due to the year’s GOP lean and lost his seat two years later in a reversion to the mean in this blue-ish district; he lost to Bill Pascrell by 3%.  He’s now a US District Judge for NJ.

Mike Forbes, Long Island: Four-term incumbent George Hochbrueckner (what a mouthful) was defeated by typical NY moderate Michael Forbes, losing by six percent.  Forbes broke publicly with Newt Gingrich in 1996 and became a Democrat in 1999.  However, he lost the primary by 35 votes in 2000 to a 71-year old librarian.  Shades of Parker Griffith?

Daniel Frisa, Long Island: Frisa defeated the more moderate freshman David Levy in the primary and went on to cruise to election.  He was challenged by lifelong Republican Carolyn McCarthy after voting to repeal the Assault Weapons Ban in 1996, winning by 17%.  

Sue Kelly, Upstate NY: 13-term moderate Hamilton Fish retired, letting Kelly cruise to election in a historically Republican district over Fish’s Democratic son.  She was narrowly defeated by John Hall in 2006.  Her connection to Mark Foley helped do her in, along with the blue wave of the year.  

Dave Funderburk, Research Triangle Suburbs: Funderburk won an open seat by twelve percent, but lasted only one term, losing to Bob Etheridge.  I don’t know anything about him.  

Fred Heineman, Durham: Heineman narrowly defeated incumbent David Price and lost two years later by a wider margin.  He died in March.  

This is part 3 of my diaries exploring what is the legacy of the Republican class of 1994.  

Matt Salmon, Phoenix Suburbs.  Matt Salmon’s margin is nearly exactly the same as Ann Kirkpatrick two years ago in a district that is numbered the same but looks very different.  He won by 17 points in an open seat after Sam Coppersmith tried to defeat Jon Kyl in an open Senate election.  (much like IN this year, an open seat seat meant a loss in the Senate seat and a competitive House race, although I don’t know if there would have been one anyways, as Coppersmith pulled a Perriello in winning a total upset in 1992 over an incumbent.  Salmon served six (h/t: jwaalk) years in Congress before running against Janet Napolitano for Governor of Arizona in 2002, losing by a razor-thin margin.  He is now president of the Electronic Cigarette Association (bet you didn’t know that.)

Dave McIntosh, NE. Indiana.  When incumbent Philip Sharp retired after ten terms in Congress in a Republican district, McIntosh won by nine points in the open seat race (a surprisingly small margin, in my opinion).  He served three terms before running for Gov. of Indiana and losing to incumbent Frank O’Bannon by a wide margin.  

Greg Ganske, Des Moines.  Greg Ganske shocked the political world by defeating 18-term incumbent Neal Smith.  He won by nearly seven points in the Republican wave, campaigning in a 1958 DeSoto car (shades of Scott Brown) since Smith had won his first election that year.  He was also a plastic surgeon.  He remained a sane/somewhat moderate Republican throughout his four terms in Congress before challenging Tom Harkin in 2002, something  reserved for sacrificial lambs nowadays, (see Reed, Christopher).  He lost by ten points.  Today, he’s a plastic surgeon again.  

Todd Tiahrt, Wichita.  Tiahrt just lost his Senate primary last week, his social conservative cause dying along with it (although I can’t say I’m unhappy with his loss.)  He defeated 9-term incumbent Dan Glickman in the election, winning by six points.  Glickman then became Secretary of Agriculture, so it didn’t turn out too bad for him.  

Jon Christensen, Omaha.  And another Plains state freshman from that year who tried for higher office.  Christensen defeated 3-term incumbent Peter Hoagland in the election by one point.  Four years later, Christensen ran in a contested primary for Nebraska Governor, losing to Mike Johanns (a la Pete Hoekstra, Zach Wamp, Gresham Barrett).  He is currently married to a former Miss America.  He’s still 47, I’m not sure why he couldn’t run for something again at some point (Governor to replace Heineman?)

Steve Largent, Tulsa.  NFL Hall of Famer Largent ran for Jim Inhofe’s open House seat and won convincingly.  In 2002, he decided it was time for a promotion and ran for Governor, losing to Brad Henry by less than one percent.  He may be one of the greatest receivers of all time, but he couldn’t win an election in a GOP year in a red state, so I guess he didn’t do too well.  He was one of the most conservative House members.  He’s currently CEO of a wireless nonprofit.

Zach Wamp, Chattanooga.  Speaking of Wamp, here he is.  He also lost a gubernatorial primary this week while trying to be as conservative as possible.  He wants to secede, if I remember correctly.  10-term incumbent Marilyn Lloyd’s retirement in this even then reddish seat led to a victory for Wamp. However, the conservative, although pro-choice, Lloyd endorsed Wamp over the Democrat Randy Button, who lost by six points.

Van Hilleary, Rural Tennessee.  Hilleary ran for Governor the last time there was an open gubernatorial seat in Tennessee: 2002.  Before that, he took the open seat that Jim Cooper vacated to run for Senate, a campaign he was thoroughly demolished in.  Hilleary cruised in the open seat that is very similar to Lincoln Davis’s today.  He lost to Democrat Phil Bredesen in the gubornatorial election, however.  He’s now a consultant living in Washington, DC, which means he can’t challenge Lincoln Davis (which is good).  He did come in third in the 2006 Senate primary, losing to Bob Corker.  

Ed Bryant, W. Tennessee.  Ed Bryant replaced governor-elect Don Sundquist on the ballot in the 7th district.  He won in a Safe GOP district, at least in that year, although he was so conservative that he helped organize Pat Robertson’s presidential bid.  He ran for Fred Thompson’s open senate seat, but lost to the sane, although by no means moderate, Lamar Alexander.  In 2006, he came in second in the Senate primary, losing to Corker but defeating Hilleary.  He’ll probably run again if there’s ever an open seat.

George Nethercutt, Spokane.  Nethurcutt garnered national attention after upsetting Speaker Tom Foley by two points in this conservative district.  Foley was the first Speaker to lose since 1860.  He violated his promise of serving only three terms, but after five, he ran for the Senate against Patty Murray.  He lost by twelve points in a race that was never forgotten but never worrisome either.  He is CEO of a nonprofit, the Nethercutt Foundation.  

Mark Neumann, Milwaukee Suburbs.  Mark Neumann defeated freshman Peter Barca by less than one point in this tight 1994 election.  He narrowly won re-election in 1996 and then refused to vote for Newt Gingrich for speaker.  In 1998, he decided to challenge Russ Feingold and lost by only two points.  He’s running for Governor this year, but will probably lose the primary.  

Part 2 of the 1994 legacy.  These representatives just happened to retire, either to run for another office (which they won, otherwise they will be in Part 3) or to spend more time with their family.  Let’s see how many of them you remember.

Sen. Bill Frist, TN—I remember him, as I’m sure you do.  He led the GOP in the Senate during Bush’s terms.  He is a doctor and a conservative through and through.  I don’t know of any scandals with him; he just stuck to his two-term Contract With America promise, which many congressmen broke.  He easily defeated three-term Senator Jim Sasser in 1994, winning by an astounding 14 points.  I guess Sasser got Santorum’ed, although I’m not sure why he lost by such a margin.  Anyone (wtndem?) wanna help me out here?

Sen. Fred Thompson, TN—It’s rare for a party to pick up two Senate seats in the same state in one year, but it happened here. Appointee Harlan Mathews, occupying Al Gore’s seat, retired, and Nashville-area Blue Dog Rep. Jim Cooper, who seems a good fit for Tennessee, lost to Thompson by over twenty points. Since his retirement in 2002, he has been on Law and Order and tried running for president.

Sen. Craig Thomas, WY—Thomas easily won this open GOP seat and was a well-liked senator until his tragic death from leukemia a few years ago.  

Rep. John Shadegg, Phoenix—Shadegg is retiring this year after being a very conservative Rep.  He plans to fight for freedom in a different venue.  Can anyone say lobbying?  His worst showing was 2008, when he won 54-42.

Rep. George Radanovich, Fresno—Radanovich is also retiring this year.  His opponent, incumbent Richard Lehman, was Hostettler’ed by nearly twenty points in this red district.  How Lehman was elected to begin with, idk.  His son is named King, and tragically, his wife died soon after his retirement announcement.  This probably explains his retirement, as she had cancer (I’m not sure the reasons were ever discussed before this).

Rep. Sonny Bono, Inland Empire/Coachella Valley—The former music star and Palm Springs mayor ran for this open seat and easily won.  In 1998, he died in a tragic skiing accident, and his wife still holds the seat.

Rep. Joe Scarborough, Pensacola—Morning Joe won this open Democratic seat by over 20 points after incumbent Dixiecrat Earl Hutto retired.  He tried to get the US to leave the United Nations, among other things, before resigning to go have a show on MSNBC, although he claimed it was to spend time with his kids.

Rep. Dave Weldon, C. Florida—When incumbent ConservaDem Jim Bacchus, retired, Weldon took the plunge and won a rather close race.  He retired and returned to medical practice in 2008, and was succeeded by Bill Posey.  

Rep. Charlie Norwood, Augusta GA—Dentist Norwood crushed incumbent Don Johnson by over 30 points, a Hostettlering of epic proportions that we probably haven’t seen since.  He barely survived in 1996 and cruised in every other election.  He died of cancer a few years ago as well, around the time Craig Thomas did.

Rep. Helen Chenoweth, Boise—Chenoweth was one of the most conservative members of the entire House.  She defeated incumbent Larry LaRocco by double digits in an upset and promised to limit herself to three terms, a promise she kept.  She barely won in 1996.  In 2006, she died in a car crash; she wasn’t wearing a seat belt.  

Rep. Jerry Weller, C. Illnois/Chicago Exurbs—Weller easily won an open Democratic seat by over 20 points, something unexpected anywhere but the South, but that tells you what type of year 1994 was for us.  He retired to spend more time with his family in 2008, as a daughter was born in 2006.  He is married to a former Guatemalan congresswoman.  

Rep. JC Watts, Oklahoma—When Dave McCurdy ran for the open Senate seat David Boren had resigned, JC Watts stepped in to become one of two recent Black Republicans in Congress, with a third on the way.  He narrowly squeaked by in the primary runoff and barely won election in the historically Democratic district.  Watts easily won subsequent elections until 2002, when he retired and became a lobbyist, helping people get free money with JD Hayworth.  He served four terms rather than the three he had promised.  

Rep. Tom Davis, NoVA—One term Rep. Leslie Byrne lost by eight points to Fairfax Co. Supervisor Davis, who was a moderately conservative Republican (a la Steven LaTourette, George Voinovich) throughout his time in Congress.  He’s considering challenging Jim Webb in 2012 after his 2008 aborted Senate run and retirement, and is CEO of the Main St. Partnership and is also an auditor.  

Rep. Jack Metcalf, Seattle Suburbs—Langley won an open seat in the election, although he was nearly 70.  He honored his six years in Congress promise, and was a strong conservative with libertarian tendencies.  He was a Goldwater conservative.  

Rep. Barbara Cubin, Wyoming—Cubin was an outspoken conservative throughout her time in Congress. She retired in 2008, and her husband died this year.  She is a “chemist.”

Part 3: Lost in other campaigns

Part 4: Lost House Elections

Part 5: Scandals

In 1994, the GOP swept to power, picking up 54 House seats.  Of course, this led to numerous House freshmen.  I’m going to examine every single Freshman from that year and see how their legacy played out.

Category One: High Success: Still in Congress/Governorships/Cabinet (as of 2011)

 Brian Bilbray, San Diego —Lost in ’00 and came back to win a different House seat after the incumbent resigned due to corruption.  Successful and non-controversial representative.  Possibly vulnerable in 2012, depending on redistricting.

 Saxby Chambliss, S. Georgia (current Senator)—Has been very conservative, non-controversial Senator (other than the Cleland election, as sapelcovits pointed out).  Ranking Member of Ag. Committee.

 Ray LaHood, C. Illinois (current SoTrans.)—I don’t think he’s done anything wrong.  Obama likes him.

 Tom Latham, C. Iowa—A sane conservative.  Will probably fight Boswell in 2012 due to redistricting, but I think he’ll win.  He’s a good guy, even if he’s a Republican.

 Sam Brownback, Topeka—A non-sane conservative.  Future Gov. of Kansas, loved by Religious Right.  He won a Dem-held open seat in ’94 and proceeded to bring on teh crazy.  Now he wants to ban all centaurs (look it up).

 Ed Whitfield, W. Kentucky—Still a Representative, ideologically slightly moderate, but mostly conservative.  Free from controversy.

 Bob Ehrlich, Annapolis—Hopefully will not become Governor again this year.  But hopefully he’ll stay out of sight.  I really don’t know much about him.  

 Roger Wicker, N. Mississippi—Relatively new Senator, replaced Trent Lott.  In middle of GOP Caucus.

 Charlie Bass, W. New Hampshire—Will be a Rep. again next year after losing in ’06.  Sane as well, defeated SSP fave Dick Swett.  

 Frank LoBiondo, S. New Jersey—Another moderate Republican, one of perhaps 10-15 in the caucus today.  Broke term limits pledge.  

 Rodney Frelinghuysen, NW New Jersey—Yet another moderate Republican.  Six members of his family have been in Congress.

 Richard Burr, Winston-Salem—The definition of Meh.  Anyone who reads SSP knows enough about this vulnerable Senator.  

 Sue Myrick, Charlotte—Former mayor, very popular, pretty conservative.  One of many anonymous GOPers who follow party line but don’t speak up.  

 Steve Chabot, Cincinnati—Will be back in Congress this year, most likely.  Another noncontroversial conservative.  

 Steven Latourette, Cleveland Suburbs—Another rational Republican, similar to Latham, Frelinghuysen, although pro-life.  He defeated an incumbent freshman and probably has this seat for as long as he wants it, in my opinion.  

 Tom Coburn, E. Oklahoma—Bring on teh crazy.  Coburn is the definition of a wingnut Senator, one of the 3 most conservative in the Senate, I believe.  However, he’s pretty safe in his seat and is a strong campaigner.  

 Lindsey Graham, Upstate SC—Yet another rational Republican.  Probably will lose in his next Senate primary, but still.  He’s yet another Senator from this class.  They had ambitious Congressmen.  

 Mac Thornberry, W. Texas—Crushed incumbent Bill Sarpalius in this yellow dog district, and has been safe since.  However, we can see that at this point, there will be fewer than 25 active politicians left from this 70-ish+ person class after only 16 years.  

 Doc Hastings, Yakima—WA’s delegation went from 8-1 Democrat to 7-2 Republican, but he’s the only one left.  GOP head of the Resources Committee, advocates for ruining our planet.

 Jon Kyl, Arizona—Now on to those elected as Senators.  Kyl is second-in-command for the GOP and has been very conservative and very successful.  He impresses me.

 Olympia Snowe, Maine—A moderate, although not so much on HCR. Will retire in two years, I believe.  Has had huge amount of tragedy in her life, read about her.

 James Inhofe, Oklahoma—Where to begin? Global warming mocker, religious nutcase, IDK what else to say.  At least no corruption, that’s the only plus.

And, that’s it for successful, non-corrupt politicians from the class of 1994.  22 members.  Part two will be the corrupt/scandal-plagued ones and part three the retired/retiring ones.  Please respond with what you think of this diary set, I’m interested.

 

If Obama were to somehow win Alabama in 2012 and be the first Democrat to since Carter, here’s how it would go:

As you can see, this victory map roughly parallels Alabama’s “Black Belt” in the Southern portion.  Counties like Greene and Sumter are Democratic even in huge Republican years, and the large Montgomery County is also growing more and more liberal.  However, more rural, split counties like Conecuh and Choctaw, which Gore won but Kerry and Obama couldn’t, are tougher nuts to crack; they’re trending away from us.  Of course, I haven’t even touched on the large urban counties that Obama would need to win: Tuscaloosa, home of the University, would be more possible, with a high college and Black turnout, as would Mobile, with its Black turnout.  Jefferson, containing Birmingham, was narrowly won by Obama two years ago.  The toughest part are the next few counties: more rural Coosa, Tallapoosa, and Chambers in the East are not that African-American, and Madison, containing Huntsville, NEVER is in contention.  Neither is Lee, which contains Auburn and the large university there.  I would have to say that while this map is not quite as impossible as I would have expected, it is very improbable, and Obama probably could never win counties like Mobile, Madison, and Lee.

Now for Arkansas

I actually think this is less likely than Alabama.  There are fewer Blacks (only 15 counties are even 1/3, and Obama already won 8 of those), and there’s a huge trend away from us.  Kerry won some of the counties here that Obama wouldn’t even win while winning 60% nationwide.  Now, back to the map: I thought that this looked similar to Gore’s results until I saw that Obama would have to win Washington Co.  Now this is a college county (U of Ark. is there), but it’s also in Wal-Mart, AR-3 territory.  Clinton only won it once, I believe.  So I don’t think Obama could really ever win this; he won’t be more popular than Clinton.  Other than that, it’s the standard (for both Arkansas and Ohio) East and South, with a large city in the center (Little Rock for AR, Columbus for OH).  However, OH is more Dem because of the North, a very Republican region here.  Overally, I say this is pretty

far out of reach.  

California:

I don’t think I need to say much.  I find this map ridiculous.  Obama losing Sacramento? Really?

I got the inspiration from a comment

Here are the unopposed reps, with PVI

Illinois:

Dem:

Bobby Rush D+34

Luis Gutierrez D+32

Texas:

Rep:

Louie Gohmert R+21

Ted Poe R+13 <——- Here’s one we should have had

John Culberson R+13 <——- And this

Kevin Brady R+25

Mac Thornberry R+29

Kenny Marchant R+11 <—-And this

John Carter R+14 <—–And this

Ohio:

Dem:

Marcia Fudge D+32

Pennsylvania:

Dem:

Bob Brady D+35

Rep:

Bill Shuster R+17

California:

Dem:

Zoe Lofgren D+16

Rep:

Devin Nunes R+13 <—–Fail

Kevin McCarthy R+16

Alabama:

Rep:

Bob Aderholt R+26

Spencer Bachus R+29

Virginia:

Dem:

Bobby Scott D+20

Dave’s lets you see population by race.  Therefore, every voting district with less than 60% Whites is now colored based on which minority there are the most of.  I do not include the heavily minority Southwestern States (Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico), the heavily minority Mississippi, as there is no general trend other than Blacks along the Mississippi river, nor Hawaii; New Hampshire and Maine are also excluded because no voting district fits the requirements.  So, here we go.

GREEN=African-American

YELLOW=Hispanic

GRAY=Asian

BLUEISH=Native American

PERIWINKLE=Other

And…voila:

4 EVs: Rhode Island

In Rhode Island, there are many Hispanics (Puerto Ricans, mostly, I believe, along with some Dominicans).  Part of Woonsocket contains a sizeable Hispanic population, although it considers itself the most French city in America due to the number of French Canadians residing there.  Much of Pawtucket is also Hispanic.  In Providence, especially the West Side, there are large amounts of both Blacks and Hispanics.  Providence is actually a majority-minority city.  Hispanics represent a majority of the public school system in the city and completely outnumber the Blacks.  Further South, in Newport, there are small neighborhoods of both Blacks and Hispanics.  

Idaho:

There is not much of a trend here, with pockets of Native Americans and Hispanics in an otherwise overwhelmingly white state.

5 EVs:

Not too much to see here, but there are pockets of Black voters.  In the Panhandle/Rust Belt, not shown on the map, pockets of both Weirton and Wheeling have Black populations of a sizeable amount.  Further South, there are pockets in Fairmont, a city with a 23 year old mayor.  Portions of Charleston have Blacks as well, although the city is still very White.  The same goes for Huntington, home of Marshall University and the least healthy city in the US.  In the Coal Mining South, Beckley and the tiny towns of Alderson, Keystone (which is majority-Black), Gary, and Northfork also have large minority populations.  I will continue this later.

Nebraska:

Yeah, I know it’s a very White state, but there are a few minority parts.  In Knox and particularly Thurston counties, there are many, particularly Winnebago and Omaha tribe members.  Rural Dakota Co. has Hispanics (I have no clue why).  The town of Schuyler, which is only about 50% White, is nearly majority Hispanic (maybe at the local beef processing plant?).  Lexington is actually majority Hispanic, again for reasons unknown.  In the larger towns/cities, Grand Island has some Hispanic neighborhoods and also has a meat-packing plant, which I’m assuming is related to the minority populations in both Grand Island and Schuyler.  Finally, in Omaha, the Northeast is highly Black, while the Southeast is highly Hispanic, again near a meat processing plant.

Utah:

Utah is also a very White state, like Idaho.  However, there are large Native American populations in the East, in Uintah and San Juan Counties.  Hispanics do exist as well, although not in the South, as I personally would have expected.  Ogden is one of those cities that has some; the other is Salt Lake City.  

6 EVs:

Arkansas:

Arkansas is generally though of as one of the White Southern states, along with West Virginia, to some extent, Kentucky, and Oklahoma.  These states have no African-Americans in the U.S. House.  Neither does Tennessee, but that is not for lack of VRA trying.  However, Arkansas has a larger Black population, and a Black-majority district would be possible through extreme gerrymandering.  Arkansas’ minority population would be on the right side of a triangle cut down the middle from northeast to southwest.  I will go by CD.

CD 1 (Marion Berry for now, hopefully a Democrat after)

Newport, childhood home of Gov. Mike Beebe, has a large Black population, as do parts of nearby Jonesboro, home of Arkansas State. Further East, much of Blytheville, which according to Wikipedia is a steel town (did not know that) is majority Black.  The rural areas along the Mississippi in Crittenden, St. Francis, Lee, and Phillips Counties are highly Black.  The only real towns in these areas are West Memphis, Forrest City, home of singer (not Rep.) Al Green, and West Helena.  Further inland, tiny Marked Tree, extremely poor Cotton Plant and somewhat larger Brinkley have high Black populations as well.

CD 2 (Most likely Tim Griffin, sadly, currently Vic Snyder)

Tiny Danville, Northwest of Little Rock, is near-majority Hispanic.  Neighborhoods of North Little Rock are part Black, as is much of state capital and liberal haven (as if that’s saying much in Arkansas) Little Rock, a majority-minority city.  

CD 3 (Some Wingnut, currently future AR Sen. John Boozman)

Actually, the only minority areas in this district are Hispanic.  These include the towns of Green Forest and Little Flock and the cities of Rogers, home of the first Wal-Mart, and Springdale, home to a chicken processing plant.  The Northern half of Ft. Smith is very Hispanic, with some Blacks as well.  

CD 4 (Mike Ross-“D”)

This district has the highest minority population.  From West to East:

DeQueen: A small town, it is very Hispanic

SW Little Rock Co.: Large Native American population, borders Oklahoma (probably Cherokee?)

Ashdown, Mineral Springs, birthplace of MLB star Willie Davis, Lewisville, Stamps, childhood home of Maya Angelou, much of Texarkana, and Hope, home of both Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee, along with Rep. and Blue Dog Chair Mike Ross: high Black populations

Moving further East, the lower echelon of counties, more or less those within two counties of the Louisiana border, have high Black populations.  Towns here include industrial Magnolia, Camden, home of Fmr Sen. David Pryor, and oil town El Dorado, home of MLB player Lou Brock.

In the Southeastern portion of Arkansas, Pine Bluff is a heavily Black city.  Containing historically Black college AR-Pine Bluff, there’s no wonder why the city is nearly 2/3 Black.  Warren and Monticello are other small towns.  There are some Hispanic pockets in this area as well.

Kansas:

Kansas is more diverse but less liberal than Nebraska.  The Southwest has large Hispanic populations.  Small somewhat Hispanic towns in this area include Syracuse, Deerfield (majority),and Ulysses.  Large towns/small cities with high populations in this area are Liberal, with a huge beef plant, Garden City, and Dodge City, a former Wild West town. Nicodemus, a tiny town in the Northwest, was founded by Blacks and the reconstruction era and remains heavily Black.

Topeka (Google), further East, has many Hispanics and Blacks, although it is majority White. The same goes for the larger Wichita.   Fort Riley has many Blacks, due to their overrepresentation relative to population in the Armed Forces (at least I think they’re overrepresented).  Brown and Jackson counties have many Native Americans, as does, for some reason, a tiny part of Lawrence.  In Kansas City, the Southeast is Hispanic and the North is Black, leading to a majority-minority city.  

7EVs:

Connecticut:

Connecticut is similar to Rhode Island, but with a larger Black population.  However, near Rhode Island it is basically all white, with only a somewhat large Hispanic community in New London.  The Black community is about as large as the Hispanic one, but none of the voting districts have a Black plurality while being under 60% White, so it appears there are none.  Such is the problem with simple color-coding like this, but it gets the general point across of where there are and are not Whites.  

Further West, we get to Hartford and the surrounding area.  Hartford has very large minority populations, including a huge number of Puerto Ricans and Blacks.  It is only 18% White.  Hartford also has extreme poverty, in contrast to the rest of the state, which is considered the richest in the nation.  Blacks are concentrated in the Northern half of the city and inner suburbs, while Hispanics are in the Southern half.  Speaking of these inner, suburbs, here they are:

Bloomfield: Majority Black, home of NFL star Dwight Freeney.  It appears to me to be middle-class Black, a relatively rare phenomenon for an entire town (list other towns like this in the comments if you know of them).  

Windsor: Majority White, but many Blacks.  The median Black income exceeds the median White income.

E. Hartford: Also majority White, mainly lower middle class.

W. Hartford: A few Hispanic neighborhoods on the Hartford border.

Near Hartford, we encounter New Britain, which is very Hispanic in many parts of the city, and the home of the invention of dribbling in basketball.  

In New Haven County, Meriden has Hispanic neighborhoods as well.  Waterbury has some Black neighborhoods and many Hispanic ones.  In this city, 4 mayors since 1940 have been indicted while in office (this could be the Chicago of the Northeast).  New Haven actually has more Blacks than Hispanics, although there are many of each.  It is the birthplace of Bush 43 and the home of Yale.  Suburb West Haven is mostly White, but with some Black and Hispanic areas.  

Fairfield County, near New York, has some minority areas as well, although more rural Litchfield does not.  Danbury is very White for a Connecticut city, but has a few Hispanic areas.  A small part of Stratford is majority Black, and Bridgeport is nearly all minority, split between the two major minorities.  Central Norwalk is the same as Bridgeport, as is Coastal Stamford.  

Iowa:



In 2007 and 2008, we heard about how Iowa was nearly all White.  How true is this? I’d say it’s nearly true, but Iowa isn’t the 1950’s Alabama Democratic Party.  Parts of Sioux City, on the Western border, have many Hispanics.  Am I correct in assuming that there is a meat plant in the city?  It seems to be the trend for Hispanics on the Great Plains.  It’s true for much smaller Storm Lake, in Central Iowa.  

Central Des Moines is like many other cities in that it has Black and Hispanic areas, despite it being in Iowa.  However, it’s still 3/4 White.  Tama Co. contains some Native American voting districts.  Northeast Waterloo has a large Black population, due to their being recruited from Mississippi to work in the early 1900’s.  What Black man or woman wouldn’t want to leave early 1900’s Mississippi?

Tiny Conesville is majority Hispanic for reasons I cannot understand.  Nearby West Liberty has a meat plant, and many Hispanics as a result.  

Finally, there is one Asian voting district in University Heights, near the U. of Iowa, and one precinct of Davenport is majority Black.  That’s it for Iowa.

Oklahoma:

Oklahoma is unique because it’s the only state with large Native American, Hispanic, and Black populations.  

Hispanic Areas:

Guymon Area including Texhoma: Panhandle area, is home to pork processing plant

Clinton: birthplace of Toby Keith..is there an animal plant here as well?

Altus and nearby Olustee: Altus is home to W. OK St. Univ and an AFB.

Oakland: Tiny S. OK town

Heavener: in E. OK, home of poultry plant.  

Black Areas:

Sayre: Small SW OK town

Granite: Home to prison

Lawton: Large Black population in a city

Tatums: Nearly all Black village

Watonga: Small town

El Reno: home to the Fried Onion Burger Festival

Langston: home to the only historically Black college in the state

Forest Park and Spencer: surrounded by OKC

In the Eastern Half, nearly every relatively large town has Black areas:

Ardmore, Boley (home of a prison), Wynona, Nowata, Muskogee, a town with a 21-year old mayor and home of Sen. Tom Coburn, AG Drew Edmondson, McAlester, home of former House Speaker Carl Albert, Atoka, Hugo, Idabel, and Fort Coffee

Native Areas:

Very scattered, particularly along AR Border.  Some towns include:

Tahlequah, the Cherokee capital, and Stilwell

Black/Hispanic:

Tulsa and Oklahoma City: the state’s two largest cities are its most diverse.  Both contain large amounts of both ethnicities.