I got the inspiration from a comment
Here are the unopposed reps, with PVI
Illinois:
Dem:
Bobby Rush D+34
Luis Gutierrez D+32
Texas:
Rep:
Louie Gohmert R+21
Ted Poe R+13 <——- Here’s one we should have had
John Culberson R+13 <——- And this
Kevin Brady R+25
Mac Thornberry R+29
Kenny Marchant R+11 <—-And this
John Carter R+14 <—–And this
Ohio:
Dem:
Marcia Fudge D+32
Pennsylvania:
Dem:
Bob Brady D+35
Rep:
Bill Shuster R+17
California:
Dem:
Zoe Lofgren D+16
Rep:
Devin Nunes R+13 <—–Fail
Kevin McCarthy R+16
Alabama:
Rep:
Bob Aderholt R+26
Spencer Bachus R+29
Virginia:
Dem:
Bobby Scott D+20
A couple of comments: we had our best shot at Culberson’s seat in 2008, when we had the perfect candidate in Michael Skelly, who outraised and outcampaigned Culberson from first to last — and only managed to move the needle six points in his direction. That seat is literally unwinnable. The one I actually feel worst about at this point is Gohmert, who’s been making an ass of himself lately — it’s too bad we don’t have someone there to capitalize on that.
Devin Nunes is an interesting case. He’s the only non-Cuban-American Hispanic Republican in Congress, and he’s likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future. He’s certainly vulnerable, at least in theory, but I think the reason no one wants to take him on is that after Jerry Brown-led redistricting, he’s likely to become a lot more vulnerable.
Marcia Fudge does have an opponent.
In Virginia, the Republicans may have a candidate to run against Scott. Also, the Democrats don’t have anyone running against Goodlatte or Cantor, but they have until mid-May to find a candidate.
And apologies the wiki isnt up to date.
AL1, 4 and 6 are uncontested by us.
IL-01 has a write in repub.
Trust ne my figures are accurate.
and fudge has an opponent
Just as I had suspected, Team Blue isn’t missing out on any potential pickups this cycle. The “best” districts on this list for us are at R+13 PVI, which aren’t going our way this year.
Maybe in 2012 with Obama back on the ballot we might spring some challenges in red districts again, but not this year when we’re going to have a hard time holding districts in the R+5 to D+2 range, and anything past R+10 is probably outta here aside from maybe a few Jim Mathesons and Gene Taylor’s that are greatly entrenched.
Brady did draw a Republican challenger, Pia Varma. Her petitions were objected to by registered Republican voters and tossed by the Commonwealth Court (invalid circulators); I’m actually representing the objectors before the PA Supreme Court in the appeal challenging that order.
One district a cycle at least seems to open up suddenly due to scandal. Often these are safe districts. Think Joe Cao in 2008 or Mark Foley in 2006. Even a “some dude” candidate can win one of those seats. Incumbents also find it necessary to spend hundreds of thousands to protect themselves against these weak candidates. That does not go into the central coffers for use in winnable challenges. Finally, the very activity of filing is a leading indicator of which party is likely to gain or lose seats come election time.