AZ-Sen (4/13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Rodney Glassman (D): 32
John McCain (R-inc): 54
Some other: 8
Not sure: 6Rodney Glassman (D): 39
J.D. Hayworth (R): 48
Some other: 7
Not sure: 7
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AZ-Sen (R primary) (4/13, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):
John McCain (R-inc): 47 (48)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 42 (41)
Some other: 2 (3)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4%)
CA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/11 in parentheses):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (43)
Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 10 (10)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)
Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (40)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 13 (10)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)
Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (40)
Some other: 8 (4)
Not sure: 12 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Gov (4/14, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):
John Hickenlooper (D): 42 (42)
Scott McInnis (R): 48 (48)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 6 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (39)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (48)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 8 (6)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (38)
Ken Buck (R): 44 (44)
Some other: 3 (6)
Not sure: 12 (11)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (40)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (43)
Some other: 4 (7)
Not sure: 12 (11)Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (42)
Jane Norton (R): 49 (44)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 8 (9)Andrew Romanoff (D): 37 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 13 (13)Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (41)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 11 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Gov (4/1, likely voters, 2/1 in parentheses):
Ned Lamont (D): 37 (40)
Tom Foley (R): 44 (37)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 13 (14)Ned Lamont (D): 41 (41)
Michael Fedele (R): 38 (33)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 12 (18)Dan Malloy (D): 35 (37)
Tom Foley (R): 44 (36)
Some other: 8 (10)
Not sure: 14 (18)Dan Malloy (D): 40 (36)
Michael Fedele (R): 37 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 16 (21)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (58)
Rob Simmons (R): 38 (32)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 6 (7)Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (60)
Linda McMahon (R): 35 (31)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 6 (7)Richard Blumenthal (D): 58 (57)
Peter Schiff (R): 32 (27)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 6 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):
Marco Rubio (R): 57 (56)
Charlie Crist (R): 28 (34)
Some other: 3 (1)
Not sure: 12 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (37)
Bill Brady (R): 45 (47)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 10 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37 (44)
Mark Kirk (R): 41 (41)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 36 (34)
Rand Paul (R): 50 (49)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 11 (13)Jack Conway (D): 32 (31)
Trey Grayson (R): 52 (49)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 11 (14)Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (34)
Rand Paul (R): 52 (51)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 8 (12)Dan Mongiardo (D): 33 (33)
Trey Grayson (R): 53 (46)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 9 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
LA-Sen (4/, likely voters, 3/10 in parentheses):
Charlie Melancon (D): 36 (34)
David Vitter (R-inc): 52 (57)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 8 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MA-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Deval Patrick (D): 35 (35)
Charlie Baker (R): 27 (32)
Tim Cahill (I): 23 (19)
Not sure: 15 (14)Deval Patrick (D): 38 (34)
Christy Mihos (R): 15 (19)
Tim Cahill (I): 33 (30)
Not sure: 14 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MO-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 48 (47)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NH-Gov (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
John Lynch (D-inc): 47 (50)
John Stephen (R): 37 (35)
Some other: 5 (2)
Not sure: 11 (14)John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (51)
Jack Kimball (R): 34 (32)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 12 (13)John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (54)
Karen Testerman (R): 33 (28)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NH-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Paul Hodes (D): 35 (37)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (47)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 11 (12)Paul Hodes (D): 37 (36)
Bill Binnie (R): 49 (46)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 10 (14)Paul Hodes (D): 39 (42)
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 44 (38)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 11 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Gov (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):
Rory Reid (D): 43 (44)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 45 (36)
Some other: 8 (15)
Not sure: 4 (4)Rory Reid (D): 34 (35)
Brian Sandoval (R): 55 (53)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 4 (5)Rory Reid (D): 38 (37)
Mike Montandon (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 9 (13)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (38)
Sue Lowden (R): 54 (51)
Some other: 4 (7)
Not sure: 2 (3)Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (37)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)
Some other: 6 (9)
Not sure: 2 (4)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (38)
Sharron Angle (R): 51 (46)
Some other: 6 (11)
Not sure: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 50 (49)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 6 (7)Joe Sestak (D): 36 (37)
Pat Toomey (R): 47 (42)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 12 (15)
(MoE: ±3%)
PA-Sen (D primary) (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (48)
Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 10 (9)
(MoE: ±5%)
UT-Gov (4/8, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter Corroon (D): 29
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 57
Some other: 4
Not sure: 10
(MoE: ±3%)
UT-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters):
Bob Bennett (R-inc): 37
Tim Bridgewater (R): 14
Mike Lee (R): 14
Merrill Cook (R): 6
Cherilyn Eagar (R): 4
Some other: 3
Not sure: 21
(MoE: ±4%)
WA-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (46)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 4 (2)Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)
Don Benton (R): 40 (37)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 8 (12)Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (49)
Clint Didier (R): 37 (30)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 11 (15)Patty Murray (D-inc): 46 (47)
Chris Widener (R): 37 (32)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 12 (16)Patty Murray (D-inc): 45 (NA)
Paul Akers (R): 37 (NA)
Some other: 5 (NA)
Not sure: 13 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
If no one gets 60% of the delegates at the convention do only the top two candidates face off in the primary or does everyone?
Where it’s always good news for the GOP. You notice how every Dem is under 50 (with the exception of Gov. Lynch in 2 polls) and McMahon has picked up 12 points on Blumenthal. I guess we’ll have Massachusetts style upsets all over the country.
If Hodes, who is certain to win this November, is down by 15, then that’s good news for Melancon (down by 16).
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…
The whole thing is worth reading but he had one possible explanation for their lean:
That could explain why they get different results, though not why these differences didn’t seem to exist before this cycle.
The national party better be ready to throw masses of money into Arizona if Hayworth knocks off McCain. Hayworth is clearly beatable in November.
All Rasmussen numbers find the same, they manipulate for favore to republicans.
Few for comment. They give crazy numbers for blue and swing states, while they respect more the logical numbers for red states and for races what dems never will win, trying to give some hope about these races.
I will lose not much time with these numbers.
While Giannoulias lost some support, Kirk didn’t gain any. That means (hopefully) that he has reached the limit of his support. people who are hesitant about Giannoulias moved to the undecided column and he could probably win them back.
that they aren’t even conversation points anymore.
And it isn’t even Dem vs Rep. The McCain – Hayworth numbers just presume such a skewed turnout (meaning not just presuming a higher Rep voter inclination, but a more conservative brand of Rep) that they are simply noise.
Rasmussen just showed Bill White only 4 points behind Rick Perry.