Here are my guesses for who runs in each state. I’m not projecting wins and losses this far out. However, I will say if I think the challenger is being smart.
Arizona: Sen. Jon Kyl vs Rep. Gabby Giffords
I’m not actually sure if this is smart, she could wait six years and run then, when Arizona is bluer and more Hispanic. However, I guess she expects Obama turnout to help, but immigration reform isn’t happening and would be helpful to that turnout. It should be fun to watch regardless, and Arizona could have its first Jewish senator (Goldwater doesn’t count).
California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein vs. Some Rich CEO Person
California doesn’t have any representatives moderate enough, unless former LG Abel Maldonado takes the plunge, but why would he? Newsom was weaker in a weaker year and beat him. So it’ll be some rich person in my home state. I honestly expected DiFi to retire and Jackie Speier and a couple others to run in a primary, but it’s fine. I like DiFi, unlike some liberals. I’ll get to vote for her in my first election!
Connecticut: Sen. Joe Lieberman vs. Peter Schiff vs. Rep. Chris Murphy
This one should be extremely fun to watch! Lieberman will run as an Indie, and three relatively strong candidates (no Schlesinger) means I have no clue who will win. But it won’t be Schiff.
Delaware: Sen. Tom Carper vs. Some Dude
Carper, a mainstream, somewhat moderate, Democrat will not be considered vulnerable, and there’s absolutely no GOP bench anyway. So he’ll be up against someone (Christine I hope).
Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson vs. Rep. Connie Mack
Nelson replaced Mack’s father in the Senate and might retire this year, but I think he’s gonna try for one more term. Mack is a strong conservative but not crazy candidate, and Florida’s rightward turn will probably convince him to take the plunge.
Hawaii: Rep. Mazie Hirono vs. Fmr Rep. Ed Case
The real action’s in the primary. No Republican is winning in Hawaii when Obama’s up for re-election. Classic Progressive vs. Blue Dog primary.
Indiana: Treas. Richard Mourdock vs. Sen. Dick Lugar
Again, no Democrat is gonna win this Senate seat, both Republicans are strong. Also, I don’t think anyone strong will run for the D’s. This will be an interesting primary, and I really hope Lugar wins.
Maine: Tea Partier vs. Rep. Mike Michaud
Michaud knows he’s got a good shot, being a moderate Dem in a year where Snowe could go down. However, I think he’s cautious, but Snowe’s retirement (she has arthritis and doesn’t want the primary) will cause him to take the plunge.
Maryland: Sen. Ben Cardin vs. Some Dude
Cardin is distantly related to me. That’s legitimately the most interesting thing about this race.
Massachusetts: Rep. Mike Capuano vs. Sen. Scott Brown
Capuano’s unabashed liberal-ness vs. Brown’s semi-moderation. Capuano’s primary will probably be cleared; nobody in the MA dem establishment wants Brown to be re-elected.
Michigan: Sen. Debbie Stabenow vs. Rich Guy/Rep. Candice Miller
I’m not sure if Miller would win a primary; I know nothing about her campaign skills, but I think she’s in. She also has one of the safest GOP seats, so it won’t be too much at risk.
Minnesota: Sen. Amy Klobuchar vs. Some Dude
Minnesota may be a swing state, but Klobuchar’s immensely popular. Paulsen probably isn’t dumb enough to try and take her on, but if he’s redistricted out, he will have to do it.
Mississippi: Sen. Roger Wicker vs. Some Dude
I forgot this seat was up again already. But it’s not going to have a strong Democratic candidate.
Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill vs. Treasurer Sarah Steelman
Steelman sounds Jewish, but I guess she isn’t. McCaskill is one of my three favorite Senators (along with Wyden and Merkley) and I really hope she wins. It’ll be interesting, and Former Sen. Jim Talent could still run, but I’m guessing he won’t.
Montana: Sen. Jon Tester vs. Rep. Denny Rehberg
They both represent the whole state, and Rehberg is right-wing enough to win a primary easily (unlike Mike Castle).
Nebraska: Sen. Ben Nelson vs. AG Jon Bruning
Bruning’s already in, and personally, I don’t think the DSCC should spend a dime on this unless Obama looks to be up double digits (a.k.a. Democratic wave)
Nevada: Sen. John Ensign loses in primary, Rep. Dean Heller vs. Rep. Shelley Berkley
The two non-freshman Reps go against each other after the corrupt sleazebag goes down. Fields should be pretty well cleared.
New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez vs. Rich Dude
I’m not really sure who the NJ GOP could put up against him otherwise, but he’s certainly vulnerable if Obama’s going down, so they’ll find someone.
New Mexico: Sen. Jeff Bingaman vs. Jon Barela/Fmr. Rep. Heather Wilson
If Wilson wants to re-enter politics, she could try against the aging Bingaman. Or else Barela could try. Or it could be someone we’ve never heard of.
New York: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand vs. Dan Senor
After Gillibrand’s rout this year, nobody else wants to go up against her. Although Paladino would be fun. Taking a bat to DC? Campaign video of him smashing White House windows?
North Dakota: Sen. Kent Conrad vs. Some Dude
Conrad’s an institution, and institutions don’t usually lose in a general election. Although Tom Dachle may be enough of an example to show why Conrad should still watch out. He also may retire.
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown vs. Rep. Jim Jordan
Jordan’s a Tea Partier, so he should win the primary. Huge ideological differences between candidates in this swing state.
Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey vs. Rich Guy
Casey appears safe, so no representative will challenge him. If it were 2016, Corbett might, but he’s a new governor and can’t leave yet. That leaves a rich guy.
Rhode Island: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse vs. John Robataille
He’s the best the Rhode Island GOP has, so he’ll get the nomination.
Tennessee: Sen. Bob Corker vs. Some Dude
The Tennessee Dems have nobody but Jim Cooper, and he’s already been a catastrophe running statewide. Dems might want insurance in case a wacko wins the primary against Corker, though.
Texas: Railroad Comm. Michael Williams vs. John Sharp
The candidates are pretty settled here. Hutchison either retires (my guess) or goes down in the primary. And we’ll probably have our first Black southern senator since Reconstruction.
Utah: Rep. Jason Chaffetz vs. Sen. Orrin Hatch
Again, the competition is in the primary. No Democrat has a chance, and Utah’s convention system should make Hatch relatively easy prey to Bay Area native (?!) Chaffetz.
Vermont: Sen. Bernie Sanders vs. Some Dude
It’s Vermont. The GOP has Dubie, who couldn’t win in 2010 in an open seat, and that’s about it.
Virginia: Sen. Jim Webb vs. Fmr Sen. George Allen
I don’t think Webb will retire; if he does, I’d say Rep. Gerry Connolly jumps in. Allen’s almost in for sure, and I think he’ll survive a primary, since he’s relatively Tea Party himself, with his Confederate sympathies.
Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell vs. Some Dude
The action here is in the governor’s race. The only GOPer left would be Dino Rossi, and he’s lost three times.
West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin vs. Some Dude
Capito’s all they got, and she’s in for Governor, I will predict.
Wisconsin: Rep. Ron Kind vs. AG JB Van Hollen
Kohl’s impending retirement sets up a fun battle here, with two establishmenty candidates, both in tune with their party’s bases, but not so far out there to be unacceptable to indies. They’re the best each party has.
Wyoming: Sen. John Barrasso vs. Some Dude
We have no bench.
Governors:
Montana: Some State Senator vs. Some other State Senator
I don’t know enough about this race at all.
Missouri: Gov. Jay Nixon vs. LG Peter Kinder
Kinder’s already in against the popular Nixon. I don’t think he’ll have primary problems.
West Virginia: SoS Natalie Tennant/Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin vs. Rep. Shelley Capito
A highly competitive governor’s election in a state that never really has competitive elections (except 2010). Capito is the heir to the mansion, and there could be a brutal Democratic primary between two big WV pols.
Indiana: Fmr Sen./douchebag Evan Bayh vs. Rep. Mike Pence
I think Pence knows he can’t win the presidential nomination unless he holds a bigger office. This should have extreme spending, and liberals will flock to Bayh so the religious right Pence doesn’t get the office. Primaries here should be no problem; they’d be too far outspent.
New Hampshire: 2 Statewide Officials
Again, I know nothing about this race, but I think Lynch is retiring.
Vermont: Gov. Peter Shumlin vs. Some Dude
Still no bench in Vermont.
Washington: Rep. Jay Inslee vs. AG Rob McKenna
McKenna shouldn’t have problems in the primary; he’s conservative for Washington. Inslee has been around for a while and shouldn’t have problems either, and he’s been indicating he’s in.
Let me know if you disagree or agree, but comment either way!
lot of thought went into it, its easy to tell
i think gerlach runs against casey after some encouragement from state gop leaders, easing redistricting for them.
I Agree with most of your assessments, here’s a couple I had some other ideas on.
AZ- There are some rumors that Kyl will not run for re-election, in which case, I do think Giffords would take a stab at it. The GOP field could be monstrous if Kyl retires, but if he doesn’t, unless a Democratic Wave year somehow is created in 2012, I think Kyl gets an easy re-election. Maybe defeated Rep. Kirkpatrick will take a swing at it.
CT- Agreed. Race is going to be a mess. Though, considering the bad shape Lieberman is in, I wouldn’t be surprised if he called it quits. Schiff will definetly go again. If its an open seat, Simmons will be back.
HI- Is it assumed Akaka isn’t running again? I think he’ll go for it. If Linda Lingle runs (as she said she might), he may retire later on, and leave the primary situation you described. However, Lingle vs. any of the Democrats would make this race interesting. Don’t count her out of the running.
ME- Interesting, I never considered that Snowe would retire. She seems too much of a creature of Washington to just give up. And her opponent is…???? I’ll wait on her verdict, and Michaud’s running until we know that. Maine Republicans are not even as Conservative as Delaware Republicans, she could stand a fight up there.
MA- Capuano doesn’t have much COH left, and with the polls as they seem to be, I don’t think he’s going to take the plunge again. His district doesn’t really strike me as one that needs to go anyway, despite the over-utilization of Democratic votes in the 8th. Look for a Rich outsider, or the unlucky Congressman (could be anybody from Olver, Neal, McGovern, Frank to Lynch) to take the risk. Massachusetts Democrat incumbents are generally risk adverse.
MI- Some folks talking up Pete Hoekstra or SOS Terri Lynn Land on the GOP side.
MN- With the GOP in charge of the Legislature, I don’t think Paulsen is going anywhere. He would be dumb to run in this race, Klobuchar would kill him. Bachmann, Peterson and Cravaack will in some combination be winding up in the same district. Maybe one of those GOPers will give it a shot.
NE- Nelson may retire. But its not like there would be another Dem ready to run in his place…
NV- Ensign may make it easy for Heller and retire if Heller announces. Just a thought.
NJ- That Rich dude is Lou Dobbs. He said he was interested.
OH- A GOP Congressman is going to be out of a district come redistricting. That guy (could be Jordan) will be the nominee.
PA- The GOP Congressmen are all pretty new, and the others (Shuster, Murphy, Peterson, Dent etc) are too entrenched to make a run. I dont think Gerlach is going to run, he’s going to get a safer district (I’ve done it, its very easy), and his Gubernatorial ambitions probably taught him a lesson. Maybe Ricky Santorum will give up his Presidential ambitions, or a defeated candidate from the past will show up (Lynn Swann, Melissa Hart)
RI- Robataille is most likely. Maybe Steve Laffey if not.
TX- Williams could definetly win, he’s a big time Tea Party guy, and TX GOPers will eat him up. However, a lot of other big time GOP folks are eying Hutchinson’s seat (she’s going to retire), and they will have the $ to win.
VA- I think Webb is 50-50. The guy doesn’t seem to be with the program. He also has a record of wandering away from things(Former GOPer from the Reagan Administration?). Maybe giving up his Senate seat is next. Connolly, Moran or Kaine could run.
WI- If Kohl is done, I bet Paul Ryan is in the mix on the GOP Side.
Compelling matchups.
Points to Ponder:
SENATE RACES
ARIZONA
I love Gabrielle Giffords – but how about Janet Napolitano? Is she missed in Arizona? Or are they glad she’s gone?
CALIFORNIA
I’ll go a lot crazy and say Condoleezza Rice. But saying that, I still don’t know anyone in the California Republican bench that is in DiFi’s league. The only one that comes quasi-close is San Diego mayor Jerry Sanders – but I do not see him surviving a GOP primary.
FLORIDA (in case Bill Nelson retires)
For the Democrats, I see Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio and Orlando mayor Buddy Dyer. For the Republicans, Connie Mack, Mike Haridopolos, and god forbid, outgoing LG Jeff Kottkamp.
HAWAII
At first I thought Ed Case will have the Dem field all to himself, but I do see your point about Mazie. Maybe Mazie can also run for the Senate and Ed can run for his old HI-02 seat again…
INDIANA
In the event Lugar is knocked out in the primary, and Bayh is at the top of the ticket, perhaps Joe Donnelly or Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel.
MAINE
I’m still holding out hope that Eliot Cutler will take the plunge on behalf of the Dems. There is also Rosa Scarcelli.
MASSACHUSETTS
The bench is large, although my preferred candidates are Mike Capuano and Elizabeth Warren.
MICHIGAN
Who can be possible Dem replacements for Stabenow in case she opts to retire?
MONTANA
Given what happened to Russ Feingold with Ron Johnson – I will not discount Steve Daines. It could well be Jon Tester v random rich dude. I hope Schweitzer jumps in should the at-large seat open up.
NEBRASKA
The only names that come to mind for Nebraska Democrats are Mike Fahey (ex Omaha mayor), Chris Beutler (Lincoln mayor), and Jim Suttle (Omaha mayor). I don’t know how viable any of those three are, and I know Suttle just survived a recall attempt. Anyone care to comment about the Nebraska bench?
NEVADA
For the Dems, I love Shelley Berkley, Ross Miller, or Catherine Cortez Masto. For the GOP, I still think John Ensign surviving the primary.
NEW JERSEY
Menendez v Tom Kean, Jr., Part Deux?
NEW YORK
Gillibrand v Peter King? It all depends on redistricting.
OHIO
The Tea party factor cannot be ignored. Tiberi or LaTourette would’ve been my picks to challenge him, or LG-elect Mary Taylor. But it depends how far right this primary contest will veer and who will emerge from that process.
PENNSYLVANIA
Bob Casey v. Jim Gerlach or Charles Dent.
TENNESSEE
It would be a major coup if Patty Murray manages to recruit Phil Bredesen to run against Corker or who ever it is that emerges from the primary. As long as it’s not Marsha Blackburn.
TEXAS
I like John Sharp, but I also think Ronnie Earle and Chet Edwards could really make this race a contest, with the ultimate wild card being Bill White. As for the Reps, I don’t think Michael Williamson has the contest in the bag, considering the bench he has to contend with.
WASHINGTON
Maria Cantwell v Clint Didier?
WEST VIRGINIA
I think John Raese still has enough money and cringe-worthy comments in the back to mount another run.
WISCONSIN
I need help assessing the Wisconsin Democratic bench, given the beating it took this cycle. As much as I love Russ Feingold, I don’t think he’ll be the viable replacement for Kohl should he retire. The only Dems I know with some statewide recognition are Tom Barrett of course, Dane County Exec Kathleen Falk (who lost the 2006 AG race to Van Hollen – so I don’t how well she’ll perform), Peg Lautenschlager (for AG who Falk unseated in the 2006 primary but she did win statewide), and Madison mayor Dave Cieslewicz. Dawn Sass was defeated earlier this year, and I don’t think SoS La Follette is interested in a Senate run. As for Ron Kind – I think this most recent race (which he almost lost) has really left him damaged. But I guess it all depends on how redistricting of WI goes, because WI Dems must also be yearning to take back Obey’s seat and put up a challenge to Ribble. As for Republicans – I see Paul Ryan or JB Van Hollen making a run for it.
WYOMING
I’d be worshipping Patty Murray is she manages to recruit Dave Freudenthal to run against Barrasso in 2012.
GOVERNORS RACES
INDIANA
Evan Bayh v Mike Pence.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
I hope that Lynch will sticks around. Hopefully 2012 is a better year for NH Dems, and they at least win back a seat or two in the State Senate and Executive Council. I want him to take on Kelly Ayotte in 2016.
NORTH CAROLINA
If Bev Perdue doesn’t turn things around, I hope Roy Cooper gets in.
NORTH DAKOTA
I know there are others out there who wish the Byron Dorgan runs for governor too.
VERMONT
Peter Shumlin FTW. Especially on a presidential year with Bernie at the top of the ticket.
WEST VIRGINIA
Capito or Raese for the Reps. I have no idea who the Dems will nominate, although I do like SoS Tennant.
“McCaskill is one of my three favorite Senators (along with Wyden and Merkley) and I really hope she wins.”
You have good taste in senators.
AZ-Sen: Sen. Jon Kyl (R) vs. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D)
CA-Sen: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) vs. Some Dude (R)
CT-Sen: Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I) vs. Tom Foley (R) vs. Rep. Chris Murphy (D)
DE-Sen: Sen. Tom Carper (D) vs. Some Dude (R)
FL-Sen: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) vs. Sen. George LeMieux (R)
HI-Sen: Ed Case (D) vs. Gov. Laura Lingle (R)
IN-Sen: Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) vs. Baron Hill (D)
ME-Sen: Howie Carr (R) vs. Rep. Mike Michaud (D)
MD-Sen: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) vs. Some Dude (R)
MA-Sen: Sen. Scott Brown (R) vs. Rep. Mike Capuano (D)
MI-Sen: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) vs. Rep. Candice Miller (R)
MN-Sen: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R)
MS-Sen: Sen. Roger Wicker (D) vs. Rep. Travis Childers (D)
MO-Sen: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R)
MT-Sen: Sen. Jon Tester (D) vs. Rep. Denny Rehberg (R)
NE-Sen: Tom White (D) vs. Atty. Gen. Jon Bruning (R)
NV-Sen: Rep. Dean Heller (R) vs. Rep. Shelly Berkley (D)
NJ-Sen: Sen. Bob Menendez (D) vs. Lou Dobbs (R)
NM-Sen: Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) vs. Some Dude (R)
NY-Sen: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Rep. Peter King (R)
ND-Sen: Sen. Kent Conrad (D) vs. Commissioner Brian Kalk (R)
OH-Sen: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Rep. Jim Jordan (R)
PA-Sen: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) vs. Some Dude (R)
RI-Sen: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) vs. John Loughlin (R)
TN-Sen: Rep. Zach Wamp (R) vs. Gov. Phil Bredesen (D)
TX-Sen: Commissioner Michael Williams (R) vs. Rep. Chet Edwards (D)
UT-Sen: Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) vs. Some Dude (D)
VA-Sen: Rep. Tom Perriello (D) vs. Corey Stewart (R)
WA-Sen: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) vs. Clint Didier (R)
WV-Sen: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) vs. Some Dude (R)
WI-Sen: Sen. Russ Feingold (D) vs. Atty. Gen. J.B. Van Hollen (R)
WY-Sen: Sen. John Barrasso (R) vs. Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D)
MT-Gov: Atty. Gen. Steve Bullock (D) vs. Corey Stapleton (R)
MO-Gov: Gov. Jay Nixon (D) vs. Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R)
WV-Gov: Secy. Natalie Tennant (D) vs. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R)
IN-Sen: Sen. Evan Bayh (D) vs. Rep. Mike Pence (R)
NH-Sen: Atty. Gen. Michael Delaney (D) vs. Ovide Lamontagne (R)
VT-Sen: Gov.-elect Peter Shumlin (D) vs. Some Dude (R)
WA-Gov: Rep. Jay Inslee (D) vs. Atty. Gen. Rob McKenna (R)
So I mostly agree with your picks. Lots can happen in a year or two, though…
In Vermont, Bernie Sanders has nothing to worry about for re-election. That said, the two Republicans who say they are looking seriously at the race are State Auditor Tom Salmon, (first elected as a Democrat, switched parties last year and won re-election in November as a Republican), and Tom Lauzon (Mayor of the small city of Barre, a traditionally Democratic working class town, he’s a kind of populist, kind of law and order right winger). Neither of them could come close to ousting Sanders.
For Vermont Governor, if Shumlin struggles in his first term, he could face serious opposition from a Republican bench that is stronger than you seem to think — Salmon, Lauzon, State Senator and former State Auditor Randy Brock (an African-American Republican), Lt Gov Phill Scott, Brian Dubie again (or Brian’s brother Michael). He should be safe, but it is too early to say that for certain.
Virginia — I think you are mistaken about the idea of Gerry Connolly jumping into the race – he barely hung onto his northern Virginia district, and he would run very poorly statewide. More likely if Webb doesn’t run is either Tim Kaine or Tom Perriello.
In Missouri, not sure why you think Talent isn’t running, since he is giving all signs of jumping in. But Steelman and several others are going to run as well, so hopefully a nasty Republican primary help McCaskill to win.
Age doesn’t seem to keep Hawaii’s Senators from running for re-election — Dan Akaka will probably run again. If for some reason it does open up, expect to see a very crowded Democratic primary, since Hawaii seems to elect Senators for life and several generations of ambitious Hawaii politicians will look at the race. If it wasn’t a Presidential year with Obama on top of ticket, I’d worry a lot about Linda Lingle, and I wouldn’t rule her out entirely.
I’m not sure the field is going to clear for Shelley Berkley or Dean Heller in Nevada, in fact, not certain either one is actually going to run. Both parties have deep benches in the state, I wouldn’t count Ensign out in a primary, and Heller isn’t crazy enough to secure the tea bagging vote in the primary. This is a wide open race.
Kent Conrad worries me more than he seems to worry you. I think there is a good possibility he retires, but given the ease with which Hoeven and Berg won this time, I’d expect him to have a serious race for re-election if he runs (especially if Obama’s popularity in ND doesn’t bounce back). Since ND is a single House district, Rick Berg will probably look seriously at the race – running statewide once every 6 years is easier than every 2 year.
Nice diary. A few comments based on my native state and my current state.
NM Senate – I think that Jeff Bingaman is going to retire. A month ago I said he was going to be in but now I am thinking that he is going to be a goner. He is a 5 termer and probably misses the old days. Assuming this happens you will have Representative Martin Heinrich vs. former Representative Heather Wilson. This is a lean Democratic race in a Presidential year. Heinrich would make a fantastic Senator and my gut tells me that he will one day.
VA Senate – I also think that Jim Webb is going to retire. Connolly would be a disaster running statewide but immediate pressure would be on Tim Kaine to take the plunge. I do believe that he would and it would setup a huge matchup with George Allen who most likely ends up defeating lesser known candidates in the primary such as Corey Stewart or Bob Marshall. My favorite would be if somehow Dick Black were to run and win the primary but that’s a pipedream. Kaine vs. Allen would be a tossup right now.
If the DE GOP sees the race as a sure loser (as it is) then the likeliest candidate for them is our favorite perennial candidate from that state, the lovely and not-so-talented Miss Christine O’Donnell. How many times has she run for Senate from DE? I think three so far. Since running for Senator appears to be her only job, why wouldn’t she go again? Who would go to the effort to stop her, since he or she would just lose to Carper?
I like Christine for the entertainment value, and that she is even more of a sure loser than a generic Repub.
Dem Hold:
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
GOP Hold:
Arizona
Indiana
Maine
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
Dem -> GOP Flip:
Florida
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Ohio
GOP -> Dem Flip:
Nevada
GOP takes 52-48 lead.
What would people have predicted? Specter (R) versus Schwartz (D) perhaps? Portman versus Ryan definitely. Dodd versus Simmons probably. Crist versus a scarificial lamb in the FL gubernatorial race without a shadow of a doubt. Good fun though to speculate.
AZ Sen: Would love to see Gabby Giffords beat Jon Kyl but I’m not sure if 2012 is the right year either. I think she
should focus on keeping a House seat. My choice to run against Jon Kyl would be Phil Gordon, the Mayor of Phoenix.
I think he’s definitely the strongest candidate.
CA Sen: Dianne Feinstein should win another term.
CT Sen: I like Joe Lieberman more these days due to him being the spokesman in the Senate for repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”
I don’t think he’ll be as hated among Democrats this time around as he was in 2006. Chris Murphy or Rosa DeLauro could be
the Democratic nominee. I doubt a Republican will beat either Joe or the Democrat.
DE Sen: Christine O’Donnell could run again but Tom Carper is favored to win another term.
FL Sen: Democrats have a weak bench in the state but incumbent Bill Nelson doesn’t look like he would have
a problem getting re-elected. Connie Mack would be a formidable opponent and this race might then be a tossup.
HI Sen: Is the incumbent not running (one of the Daniel’s)? Mazie Hirono’s my choice. I don’t think Hawaii’s ever
had a female Senator before.
IN Sen: Richard Lugar will win another term. I can’t see him getting tea-partied out of office. Not even in Indiana.
ME Sen: Is arthritis enough to cause a prominent U.S. Senator to retire? Olympia Snowe will run again, and she will
win the tea party challenge. She will win another term.
MD Sen: Ben Cardin. I think former Gov. Robert Ehrlich could make this seat competitive.
MA Sen: This would be a key race in 2012. If Brown loses though, I don’t think it will be by much.
MI Sen: Debbie Stabenow vs. Candice Miller. I think Stabenow would win though.
MN Sen: Amy Klobuchar. For a while she was the only Senator Minnesota had, and after the collapse of
the bridge in Minneapolis, she responded quickly to appropriate $250 mil. to replace the bridge.
Her poll numbers are among the highest in the country. She will win handily in 2012.
MS Sen: Republican. What else?
MO Sen: McCaskill’s going to have a pretty tough race in 2012. Jim Talent will likely be her opponent
so this will be a rematch of six years ago and therefore, a bellwether race.
MT Sen: Tester vs. Rehberg. It’s one of the best chances for a Republican pickup in 2012.
NE Sen: Jon Bruning will win. This will be the easiest pickup for the Republicans.
NV Sen: Not sure if Ensign will lose the primary. Regardless of who the Republican is,
I think Shelley Berkley should definitely run for this and make it a tough race.
NJ Sen: Bob Menendez’ll win again.
NM Sen: Jeff Bingaman will win again.
NY Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand. Republicans will not win this seat.
ND Sen: Kent Conrad will not retire and win another term.
OH Sen: A key battleground in every year and in every race, I think Sherrod Brown will come out on top though.
PA Sen: Bob Casey will win again.
RI Sen: 6 more years for Whitehouse in Washington.
TN Sen: It’s Corker’s to lose.
TX Sen: I don’t think KBH will lose the primary. She might retire and who’s John Sharp? I think the Governor,
Rick Perry, could run, or it could be any one of the gazillion House Republicans – Jeb Hensarling and
Kay Granger come to mind. Ron Paul might even run. It’ll be a Republican that wins though.
Utah: Senator Jason Chaffetz.
Vermont: Bernie Sanders all the way.
VA Sen: I don’t think Jim Webb’s that unpopular in Virginia. I say he’ll stick it out and get re-elected.
WA Sen: Unless King County is sawed off to float out to sea, Maria Cantwell’s got the votes to stick around.
WV Sen: Ron Kind barely won his House race. If Kohl retires, it’s one of the biggest races of the night.
WY Sen: Please.
Robitaille would be far from the RI GOP’s best choice, same with Loughlin. I don’t know why people are offering up the names of two people who lost in the best GOP year since 1994. If the RI GOP could get Cranston mayor Allan Fung or Warwick mayor Scott Avedisian to run they might have a chance, although even that is iffy in a presidential year when Obama is certain to carry RI by a large margin.
However, if the RI GOP would like to nominate Loughlin, Robitaille, or some other clown who is too conservative to get elected statewide (Steve Laffey?), I’m not going to argue. 🙂
Well, I really don’t think Candice Miller will run for MI-Sen. Many on SSP seem to think she’ll run. Has there been any real indication that she would run that I missed?
I think it will be Hoekstra or Rep. Mike Rogers. A third possibility could be a business person, such as the guy mentioned on the site a few days ago (can’t remember his name).