This was the first redistricting I did and I chose NM because its only three CDs. I tried to the best of my ability to make clean districts, keep counties intact, and keep the population of the districts as close to being equal as possible. Of course, this being a Democratic redistricting I wanted to make sure that President Obama won a substantial majority of votes in each new district.
1st (Blue) : Obama 56-43. Las Cruces and the southwest, most of the west. pop: 605,938. There would be a new congressperson elected from this district. None of the current reps live here.
2nd (Green): Obama 58-40. Part of Albuquerque, all of Torrance and Lincoln, and Eddy counties, Roswell, central to southeast. pop: 606,486. This would be Steve Pearce's new district (right now he represents a district that went 50-49 for McCain but this one would be much 9% more Democratic). This would create a 2012 matchup between Steve Pearce and Martin Heinrich for this district, which Heinrich would be favored to win.
3rd (Purple): Obama 57-42. Most of the east, all of the Northeast, the northwest, Santa Fe, part of Albuquerque, and north central. pop: 606,622. Ben Lujan would run in this CD.
http://i1215.photobucket.com/albums/cc513/sysm29/nm.jpg?t=1291594479
In a really bad year, I could see every single last one of these districts go to the Republicans (in fact, I’d bet money right here that Kerry lost the new NM-01 and NM-03 (or at least barely won it).
Plus, it’s worth mentioning that your district lines would have probably meant Congressman-elect Barela this year.
Any idea what the hispanic numbers would be in each district?
The Heinrich district is close to 45% now–It looks like your map shrinks that %–not sure without your info.
Either way its a fascinating example what technology can do as you evenly split the state three more or less equal ways.
In 2008 yup that’s three big wins for Obama in each district but it appears that in 2010 each of these districts would produce a Martinez win for Gov.
New Mexico the classic tossup state and you have fascinating three way split. This map would guarantee lots of competitive house races.
This is a revision. In this map I try to keep the current reps in their districts. 1-Heinrich, 2-Pearce, 3-Lujan.
http://i1215.photobucket.com/a…
The 1st includes all of Albuquerque, its Obama 59%, with 42% Latino.
The 2nd is Steve Pearce’s district including Hobbs, its Obama 54-44%, an improvement over the 50-49% it is now, with 45% Latino.
The 3rd is Ben Lujan’s Santa Fe district, its 57-42 Obama%, with 39% Latino.
I think NM is a swing state and I think any party could probably win all three of these districts.
These maps are designed to get as many Democrats elected as possible and the only way to do that is to “spread the wealth”: make heavily Democratic districts a little less Democratic so we can make those Republican-leaning districts a little less Republican.
Whether you use my map or somebody else’s, the goal for the Democrats is to make the 2nd more Democratic. You can do that by taking Democrats from either the 1st or the 3rd and putting them into the 2nd.
redistricting be? The creation of many evenly matched seats that will lead to contested elections during the 10 year cycle? Or will we see each party try to lock up seats?
For a variety of reasons that question will be settled on a state by state basis. New Mexico-again like 2000-has split control. In 2001 no agreement was made between a GOP governor and democratic legislators. The exact same situation is occuring in 2011. In 2002 a state judge just barely modified the lines for population changes. What will happen in 2011?
My crystal ball is fuzzy but I suspect the democrats will slightly strengthen Lujan while the GOP will agree to a slight move to the republican side in Pierce’s seat. Then CD #1 will more or less stay urban based with a democratic lean.
The last four elections in CD#1 has been an good example of why hispanics are still under represented in Congress. Several hispanics failed to beat GOP congresswoman Wilson. You certainly saw some voting along racial lines as hispanics ran behind democratic numbers for this district in 2004/2006.
Then when the seat opened up in 2008 Heinrich won the democratic primary when the Hispanic vote split. In 2010 Heinrich ran ahead of Gov elect Martinez in this district as it appears either hispanics would not go for the GOP hispanic candidate or swing white voters went to Heinrich. I appreciate any info on this that any posters would have.
2010 was a terrible year, the republicans will control redistricting again, the new maps will probably be terrible, 2012 is going to be a tough year too, and so the logic for democrats is still defense, since we’re not sure if we can risk anything anymore so we better not take any chances. sounds like the democrats.
i do wish that we could see the party information for some big swing states like ohio, michigan, and illinois.
also: anyone have any luck cracking california? its too big to download. texas took a while but it did work, california just shuts down my computer completely.