I have done a couple things I’ve never seen anywhere else in an Ohio map. I’m not sure if it’s good or bad.
Here’s the state:
Let’s start in the Southwest
1st-yellow: Steve Chabot
Chabot loses some bluer precincts to the east and expands into the suburbs, probably making this Likely R rather than Toss-Up. Lean R in a bad year like ’08.
2nd-green: Jean Schmidt
Schmidt’s district is safe for anybody but her. I don’t really think any Democrat could hold it, so if she goes down and is replaced by someone with the same voting record but not as crazy, the GOP shouldn’t mind. They will hold this 8 of the 10 years, at least. Plus, endangering her is the only way to make Chabot safe.
3rd-tan: Mike Turner
Turner loses a rural county and adds some suburbs. If anything, it gets a little bit safer.
8th-red: John Boehner
The Speaker must take on some new territory. He might live out of the district, in which case he can swap a bit of territory with Chabot for no partisan effect. Anyone worried about a defeat, incumbents don’t lose in R+10 districts without a huge scandal or gaffe (see Sali, Bill)
4th-yellow: Jim Jordan
The RSC chair swaps some rural counties. That’s basically it. Except he doesn’t really live in the district. I should have looked into that before I drew the map. However, who is going to challenge him and win? He can run in the 4th anyways.
5th-turquoise: Bob Latta
Latta takes on the (swingy? lean r? someone from ohio inform me) Toledo suburbs and some other swingy areas. It’s probably only Lean R rather than Likely, but it would be an uphill climb for any Democrat.
I created the Columbus Dem vote sink many people agree should exist, most likely eliminating Steve Stivers, the most moderate Ohio GOPer anyways.
7th: Steve Austria-gray
Austria takes on more of the Columbus suburbs and the whiter parts of Columbus. He’s still safe.
15th: Columbus–area Democrat–salmon
It’s safe for our side, and makes the surrounding districts safe as well.
12th: Pat Tiberi-light blue
Tiberi’s district gets much safer. He could face a primary challenge I guess, or he’ll tack right a bit.
Then there’s the 6th: Bill Johnson-pink in zoomed in maps, blue in statewide map
Johnson gets much safer with the elimination of the rest of Mahoning County. He still has Athens in the district, though.
16th: Jim Renacci-orange
Renacci loses inner-city Canton, something else I’ve never seen. This should make him safe, with an already R-tilting district.
This sets up the incredibly ugly:
13th: Tim Ryan-bright green
Taking in industrial areas along Lake Erie, Democratic Mahoning and Warren Counties, inner-city Canton, Alliance, and the most populated parts of Portage County, Ryan has an incredible gerrymander going for him. It’s ugly, but makes Kucinich’s elimination possible and makes Renacci safe.
14th: Steven LaTourette-brick
I’d be concerned about replacing him in a completely 50 50 district. He’s probably safe, but a successor might not be.
How was this all possible?
By using water contiguity in Lake Erie.
9th: Marcy Kaptur-gold
Taking in Toledo, Lorain County, and Western Cuyahoga, Kaptur’s new district is an uber-Dem vote sink. She could be primaried by Kucinich, as this district is more liberal with less of a Toledo influence in the Democratic primary, and he probably doesn’t have anywhere else to go.
10th: Betty Sutton-pale pink
Sutton takes in much of Kucinich’s Cleveland Suburbs, the Democratic parts of Summit County, and some exurbs in between for a safe district that is shaped similarly to her own but contains some new territory.
11th: Marcia Fudge-puke
A fitting color for a representative who tried to weaken ethics laws. Fudge’s district is slightly under 50% Black, which could be tweaked if it looked uglier (possibly)
And there you have it!
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Damn, that’s creative. And brilliant.
I’m not sure Latta will be thrilled, and you’ll probably see Tiberi, Stivers, and Gibbs all duking it out for one seat, but the other 9 Republicans will be very happy with this. Jordan probably wouldn’t care about moving to accomodate Boehner, and Renacci and Johnson are a lot safer.
This district is the one I think is least likely to happen. Most creative, but I think residents from both would be upset at being put with the other.
Republicans will have to eliminate one of their own to avoid a dummymander and Columbus is the most sensible place to do that.
Creative map…two quick thoughts.
1) Kucinich would still likely primary Sutton on this map, as the Sutton district includes Parma and looks to run close to Kucinich’s home in Lakewood area. His brand is known in the Cleveland media market (for better or worse), so there is no reason for him to pitch himself in the Toldeo area.
2) It seems that you create much the same district for Kaptur if you took out the swingy western Cuyahoga parts of the district and instead included the shoreline counties like Erie. This way you don’t need to use the lake, and can still create a dem vote sink that includes inner city Toledo and Lorain. You could then put Western Cuyahoga into the Renacci district, and give Latta Wayne County. With a little shuffling in southern Summit, the population numbers would likely work in this swap without changing the PVI of any of the districts too greatly.
First some things I definitely agree with: The Columbus Dem sink is 100% necessary. Franklin is blue and getting bluer and can’t be cracked anymore without major risk. And the water contiguity for the 9th is a great move to free it up to take in more NE Ohio liberals. It makes me puke a little inside (which is my personal litmus test for a good gerrymander, haha.)
Now my big beef with this: I don’t see why 4 Dem districts are needed in the Northeast. I’m pretty sure the outer suburbs of Cuyahoga County are swingy to lean R, and really should be given to Renacci and LaTourette. Ashtabula should be kept with LaT – it’s a D-leaning county but he’s represented it for a while, and his district can still be R+3 or so with it in. And Columbiana is pretty bright red. I think McCain won it with around 60%. There’s really no reason to split it up.
So what I think is that Kaptur’s eastern portion should suck up both inner-city Elyria and Lorain, and then continue to the inner-ring suburbs in the current 10th (Lakewood, Brooklyn, maybe Parma) with the outer-ring suburbs and all of Medina going to the 16th. Then Ryan gets a nice Youngstown-to-Akron barbell.
I also ultimately think they’re going to go after Schmidt. She’s the weakest incumbent in the delegation by far, and can be eliminated nicely if Boehner’s willing to take on some new territory (he’ll still have a safe district, and it’s not like he’s going to have trouble with name recognition.)
FWIW, there was an interesting 12R-4D map recently on RRH.
Honestly, if the GOP controls the redistricting process why would they choose to eliminate 2 of their members and keep all democrats intact? I mean c’mon be realistic, the Ohio GOP will never use this map.