Just for fun, I decided to see how pro-GOP you could make a map of New Mexico. My strategy was to pack as many Democrats as possible into a super-Democratic district running from Albuquerque up along the Rio Grande, thus making the other districts as Republican as possible. This is what I came up with:
The districts are:
NM-01 (Blue)
32% W, 6% N, 57% H
74%O-25%M
NM-02 (Green)
44% W, 18% N, 34% H
49%O-50%M
NM-03 (Purple)
49% W, 44% H
48%O-50%M
Two McCain districts in a state that voted for Obama by a 15% margin. That’s what horrendously ugly gerrymandering like this can do. You could actually get the blue district up to the high 70’s by taking it into the Navajo Reservation area, but that would inevitably end up splitting up the Navajo Reservation which was too much for even this map. What’s really interesting to me about this map is that all of the districts are majority-minority here, but two of them still vote Republican.
But the concept is quite interesting, I will give you that much.
even if you could draw a solid 2R-1D map in NM, it wouldn’t happen. Dems still hold the State Legislature.
But thanks for this map. I like “what if” scenarios.
I suspect we will see a standpat map in NM.
I don’t see enough of a reason for either party to try for more then standpat and no one has much reason to go to court.
puts two Democratic incumbents into the same district.
That, of course, is meant as a compliment, as it really does take some audacity to put a map like this up. You even split Albuquerque, have you no shame?! 😛
Seriously though, it’s an interesting concept, but I doubt the GOP would really try to split Albuquerque the way you have (as far as I can tell, Albuquerque is in all three districts, there’s absolutely no justification for doing so, as Albuquerque proper is small enough that it only needs a single district).
game theory. The Democrats are the only party with a possible chance for all three seats in NM. The 2010 elections, IMO, proved that. They could try to weaken the GOP seat at the expense of Lujan’s (which has a good bit of votes to spare) while keeping the urban seat about the same.
The GOP has almost the opposite goal which keeping Pierce’s seat seat the same while weakening the D’s hold the urban seat.
The legislators & governor cannot reconcile these two goals so a standpat plan is the most likely outcome. Yet does either party refuse this deal and go to a judge. The last judge did standpat so that seems the likeliest outcome so why not settle? Yet what is the judge splits the baby. Keeps the Lujan seat safe D but makes the other two seats tossups? That might freak everyone out!!! So I think standpat is the most likely outcome in NM and we will see it without a court fight.
If you want an even more gerrymandered New Mexico you could look at something like this. NM-2 and NM-3 are republican enough that under usual conditions they should be safely Republican.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
The districts are:
NM-01 (Blue)
27% W, 19% N, 50% H
76%O-22%M
NM-02 (Green)
57% W, 2% N, 35% H
48%O-51%M
NM-03 (Purple)
50% W, 6% N, 40% H
48%O-51%M
Designed to shore up all 3 incumbents. I can’t imagine the Republicans objecting to this plan. Valencia county south of Albuquerque is the only county split.
(image is cut off at the bottom, that’s all NM-3)
NM1: 60/39 Obama, 43%W, 46%H – this is basically Albuquerque
NM2: 64/35 Obama, 39%H, 37%W, 20%Native – Santa Fe and the Navajo/Pueblo territory
NM3: 53/45 McCain, 50%H, 44%W – Some areas best described as “west Texas”, and relatively moderate cities in the south of the state