Here they are. I am not predicting three-way races, just cuz I’m lazy. So no FL-12, FL-Sen, MN-Gov, RI-Gov, AK-Sen, CO-Gov, MA-Gov, or ME-Gov, although I will predict winners.
I’ll start with the Senate:
ND-Sen: Safe for Hoeven. I’m not bothering with a percentage here. Is he really that moderate? I’m predicting him more like Lindsey Graham, not George Voinovich. Am I wrong?
OH-Sen: Safe for Portman. He’ll score around sixty, incredible for an open race in a swing state. But Fisher is truly that bad of a candidate. Here’s hoping we never hear from him again in an election.
AZ-Sen: John McCain 59% I think many moderates will be upset that he’s gone so far to the right, but of course, this is a red state in a red year with a longtime incumbent in what is really not an anti-incumbent election.
IA-Sen: Chuck Grassley 59% Same thing as McCain, but a purple state rather than red. However, no divisive primary.
LA-Sen: David Vitter 57% Melancon just picked the wrong year. I think he’d lose his house seat if he were running this year as well, or at least be awfully close. Let’s get Vitter in 2016. He is my least favorite non-John Ensign or Sam Brownback or Jim Inhofe senator. Actually, he might be above all of those.
AR-Sen: John Boozman 57% Blanche is so far gone. Has anyone ever lost by this much for a Senate seat as a non-scandal plagued multi-term incumbent? I’d be curious.
NC-Sen: Richard Burr 56% And the streak ends. Marshall’s a weak candidate, as is Burr, but the GOP tide (about R+4) and the GOP lean of the state (about R+2) provides the margin.
IN-Sen: Dan Coats 56% This is exactly the same situation as North Carolina, except Coats isn’t really an incumbent.
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt 54% Blunt is a corrupt man who I hope will lose, but it won’t happen. Carnahan is nothing new or exciting, but it’s the wrong year anyway.
NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte 53% I think Ayotte is weaker than many realize, and Hodes could have done it in 2006 or 2008, and possibly even 2004. Wrong year.
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk 52% Remember, I’m just predicting their percentage of the two-party vote. Kirk will not break 50, but his semi-moderation and faux-honesty, along with being pro-choice and Alexi’s personal scandals are enough to doom him here. Sadly, Kirk gets this seat in November, not January, but at least no more Roland Burris.
PA-Sen: Pat Toomey 52% I really wish that Sestak could win. Toomey is so far right on many issues, and Sestak is a strong candidate whom I really admire for taking on Specter and defeating him. I’m not sure what Sestak’s next move would be, as he’s still young. Secretary of the Navy?
KY-Sen: Rand Paul 51% I think the drug and unemployement issues will hurt Paul more than most suspect. Aqua Buddha may hurt him a bit, but it makes me personally less supportive of Conway. This one may even be a wider margin.
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson 51% Johnson’s too conservative to get much more than 51% in a pale blue state. Feingold ran a terrible campaign, which is too bad since he’s one of my favorite senators (Claire McCaskill is probably my absolute favorite, though. I hope she runs for president in 2016 and wins).
Now to the Dem seats:
CO-Sen: Michael Bennet 51% Buck’s latest socially conservative statements will hurt him in the Denver Suburbs, and Bennet better capitalize. Buck’s too extreme to be in office from a purple state.
NV-Sen: Harry Reid 51% I’m growing more nervous about this one every day, but I still think Harry can pull it out. Angle seems desperate. It’s amazing he’s going to win this seat, though.
WA-Sen: Patty Murray 52% Dino can’t get over the hump, Patty’s not super popular, and so the natural lean of the state comes into play, about 5 points blue minus 4 points for wave year plus 1 point for Dino being Dino.
CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer 53% I’m going to make calls for her this weekend, but I really think she has it in the bag. I don’t wanna risk a Senator Fiorina, however. How anyone can support Carly’s CEO record is incredible; everyone I know whose parents worked at HP in that time (and I have many of those friends, due to where I live) have entire families that despise her.
WV-Sen: Joe Manchin 54% Raese is too conservative even for West Virginia in a red year, which is saying something. Oh yeah, he’s also an arrogant jerk. I hope Manchin becomes a Pryor, not a Nelson.
CT-Sen: Dick Blumenthal 56% I thought he was dead after the Vietnam comments, but he’s turned it around, and McMahon is deeply flawed. I love how Jewish the CT Senators’ names sound, it’s almost stereotypical 😛
NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand 57% Gillibrand’s against a legitimate candidate, but she’s strong and has heavy coattails. She’ll be in this seat for a long time, I believe, if she doesn’t run for President at some point.
OR-Sen: Ron Wyden 58% I met him and he offered me an internship. He’s hilarious, has a funny voice, and is extremely tall. Oh, yeah, he’s also one of my favorite senators, and I LOVED his health care plan. He’s also safe.
I believe DE-Sen is safe.
Now to the Governors:
Safe R: Mary Fallin, Bill Haslam, Matt Mead
Kansas: Sam Brownback 59% Brownback is very conservative even for Kansas, and with a popular Democrat leaving office, I don’t think he can break 60. But it will be close.
Alaska: Sean Parnell 58% I’m not sure why he’s not doing better. But he isn’t, and polls say he’s up around this amount.
Arizona: Jan Brewer 57% An old lady who doesn’t know how to do debates, but is creaming Goddard due to the year. I think Hispanic turnout will still be low, and I’m not really sure that many of them are virently pro-illegal immigration. It’s some people taking a shortcut while the Hispanic voters had to wait to enter the country. But I digress, Brewer’s safe.
Michigan: Rick Snyder 56% I personally like Snyder. He seems like a technocrat, and I’d vote for him over Dillon. I like Bernero better than either, but Bernero can’t win in a year like this against a legitimate moderate like Snyder. Oh, and Granholm’s super unpopular.
Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett 56% The eight-year cycle continues. Onorato isn’t inspiring, and Democrats need inspiring this year.
South Carolina: Nikki Haley 55% Haley’s ties to Sanford and her tea party alliances are drawing ire from the local CoC against a Blue Dog Sheheen. But it’s South Carolina guys, come on. She’ll win it. Another Indian-American governor for a deep south state. Who would have thought?
Iowa: Terry Branstad 55% Culver has closed by a few points in the last couple weeks, but it’s not enough. He’s very unpopular, and Branstad is well-liked.
New Mexico: Susana Martinez 55% Denish has slowly collapsed over the last 3 months, and I think this could go even lower for her. Richardson’s loathed, Martinez is Hispanic, it all works out right for the GOP this year.
Georgia: Nathan Deal 54% I really wish Karen Handel had won the primary. Knowing that Barnes would have lost either way, at least Handel’s not a corrupt scumbag. I sure can’t say that about Shady Deal (has that nickname been used before?)
Wisconsin: Scott Walker 54% I don’t think we’re going to win governorships of any swing state but New Hampshire and Oregon this year. Wisconsin’s swung hard right, and Walker seems popular and sane.
Texas: Rick Perry 53% This is a bit low for many people, but I think all the newspaper endorsements and poor media coverage will lower his percent a bit. He’ll still win, but White’s put up a strong fight. I hope he runs for Senate in 2012.
Nevada: Brian Sandoval 53% Rory Reid’s slowly catching up, but I really don’t think he can win. And certainly not with this little time.
Florida: Rick Scott 50% It’s recount time in Florida again!!! Sink’s debate thing really may cost her, although how Florida could vote for a crook, I don’t know. If the parties were flipped, I’d be a Sink supporter still, or at least just not vote.
Illiinois: Bill Brady 50% I think Chicago will help close this one; Brady is much more extreme than Kirk, and we may have a recount here as well. Illinois’s Dems really did a TERRIBLE job in the primary, but they only have themselves to blame for that.
Ohio: John Kasich 51% Strickland’s keeping it close, which is very impressive, but Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the Dems’ worst non-red states this year.
Vermont: Peter Shumlin 52% I think the PVI will let Shumlin narrowly take this one. Vermont and Delaware will now be the only states with Jewish governors, I believe, amazing considering there are nearly a dozen senators.
Oregon: John Kitzhaber 52% My native Oregonian father is confused how Dudley’s still in this, and so am I. But I don’t think Dudley can pull it out.
Connecticut: Dan Malloy 53% Another Democratic pickup. I really know nothing about Malloy; why do people think he’s presidential material?
California: Jerry Brown 54% I really like Jerry. He’s funny, progressive, quirky, not beholden to the unions like many state senators, and oh yeah, NOT TRYING TO BUY THE ELECTION. He better win 🙂
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie 55% It’s closer than I expected, and it might be due to race, but Abercrombie should take this pretty easily still.
Maryland: Martin O’Malley 55% He’s remained strong through a tough economy and anti-Dem tide. Could he someday replace Mikulski?
New Hampshire: John Lynch 57% Lynch is very well-liked.
Arkansas: Mike Beebe 58% This is a great result, for Arkansas. But Beebe may be one of the last Democratic governors of the state in the near future.
New York: Andrew Cuomo 59% I think people are THAT angry in New York, and Cuomo is really blah and uninspiring. But he is up against Paladino, so the margin could be higher.
Some margin of error on all of them, of course, with a few more 24-hour news cycles to go before The Votes Are In!
I’m one of the Malloy boosters here. He was an outstanding mayor, he conducts himself very impressively (just crushed Foley in a recent debate I saw; his body language, speech, and arguments were all far superior), and I don’t know if I see him in the White House, but I see him in the chase and making the Veepstakes for sure.
As a native Oregonian, I too am baffled as to how Dudley has remained within the margin of error in polling. But everyone seems to be showing Kitzhaber with a lead of one or two points and steadily making his way toward 50%, and I’ll wager most of the remaining undecideds are going to either break for the devil they know or just let their ballots harmlessly gather dust.
Non-scandal-plagued multi-term incumbent losses: I can think of one example off the top of my head.
That was Sen. George McGovern’s (D-SD) reelection race in 1980, when Reagan won the presidency. The Republican Revolution hit South Dakota so hard that McGovern, the Democrats’ nominee for President in ’72, lost to Rep. James Abdnor 59% to 38%. Abdnor would then lose to Rep. Tom Daschle in his own reelection bid six years later, in ’86.
You forgot DE-Sen