Everyone says Georgia can’t eliminate John Barrow, but I don’t really see why not. His district isn’t VRA Protected like Sanford Bishop, so far as I know. And anyways, 4 out of 14 VRA for Georgia is better than, say, 1 out of 7 in Alabama.
Here’s my take:
Chatham Co. only gave Obama a margin of 15,000 votes, and if you add in the two suburban counties, it is only 50-50. That plus all the GOP rural areas combine Barrow and Kingston into a Lean/Likely GOP district. (Light Blue) 60% White
from the 51% White Barrow’s current district is
Sanford Bishop (Green) gets a 46% White district, a slight improvement. He adds Macon, making GA-8 completely safe for Austin Scott (periwinkle), who gets a 65% White district.
The new 1st district (Dark Blue) is 66% White and fit for someone like St. Sen John Bulloch or St Sen Jeff Chapman, who ran for Governor in 2010.
The 4th, 5th, and 13th remain similar
Phil Gingrey’s district is eliminated, but since he is pushing 70, he’ll probably just retire.
Tom Price’s 6th (Teal) isn’t going blue anytime soon. It could be a problem around 2020, though, but the new redistricting will be approaching by then.
Rob Woodall’s 7th (Gray) has to shed quite a bit of population, now being 63% White and nearly all in Gwinnett County. This is the district I’d worry about most going Blue in the decade, particularly if the White percentage keeps dropping. The 22% who are Hispanic or Asian is a wild card, as many don’t vote, at least not yet.
The New 11th (Green) is 60% White, with 10% the Hispanic/Asian wild cards. Somehow, I can find no veteran State Senators from the district, so I’m not sure about the bench. It’s mostly suburban Republicans, though.
Westmoreland’s purple 3rd is still safe for him, as are Graves’ 9th (Northwest) and Broun’s 10th (Northeast).
On the east side, including Augusta, is the other open seat, the new 14th.
Now on to Washington, and their bipartisan incumbent protection map.
There it is.
And the Seattle area is here:
In Eastern Washington, the two swing counties, Whitman and Spokane, are split up. That’s the only big difference. McMorris Rodgers (Yellow) and Hastings (Red) are safe. Herrera Beutler (Purple) now has to extend a bit further East, as it loses Longview, Pacific Co., and Olympia, making it much safer for her, probably going from Toss-Up to Lean R.
Dicks’ 6th (West), which needs to be made a bit safer for when he retires, as the Western lumber counties are trending a bit away from us, adds Pacific Co., Longview, and Olympia from the 3rd, loses some of S. Kitsap Co., as well as Central Tacoma, and remains a swingy Tilt D district.
Reichert’s 8th (Purple) gets much bigger, losing the Microsoft Area to the new 10th (Pink) and taking up nearly all of the non-Coastal Northern Coast Counties from Larsen, making his Green 2nd a bit safer in the process (he nearly lost this year). This means Larsen needs to take up more Suburbs, making Inslee (Blue) take a bit of Seattle, moving McDermott (Gray) into some low-income suburbs as well as Seattle, and making Adam Smith, the new Armed Services chair, in light blue, take in the AFB and Army Base, as well as all of Tacoma.
Pretty powerful paring with Norm Dicks as the Defense Appropriations cardinal. If they can’t secure the new tanker for Boeing…. well, that would mean that defense procurement reform has made some progress…
and your map of Washington state illustrates my point from the other day. The natural push Eastward-because of the 10th seat in WA moves WA3 further East and makes it a safe GOP seat. Hererra will ditch Thurston county (Olympia) and pickup republican area.
I see some sort of new 10th district in WA that wraps around Seattle. This particular might split just a few more counties then the commission. Just my feeling on that. My sense is that Reichart (WA8) will end up in a favorable seat for him.
I was shocked to read that Phil Gingrey (d/o/b: 7/10/42) is “pushing 70,” but I guess that’s what a little “miss Clairol” will do!
Wenatchee and East Wenatchee are pretty much the same town.
Spliting Yakima from the rest of the Yakima Valley probably doesn’t fly either
What would WA-8’s new PVI be, approximately?
Also, how do you include your Congressional District and voter info at the bottom of the post like many people do?
but it looks like your 2nd district has a lot of areas which aren’t contiguous. IIRC, water crossings are only permitted if there is a bridge linking the two parts.
Of course, that doesn’t explain why the existing 1st crosses Puget Sound, and there isn’t even a ferry linking the two sides.
They could be brought to court for voter dilution. Their best chance is to shore up Scott and make the new district Republican.
Does anyone have any clue as to the new PVIs of WA-8 and WA-10? As a Republican, I’d be very happy with any map that took Reichert from a D+3 into a R+1 or R+2, made Jamie Herrera a R+3, and kept Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Doc Hastings in Safe R territory, even if it meant creating a D+10 or so WA-10. I think that’s a likely scenario.
http://www.theolympian.com/201…
Suggested bottom line: good news for Hererra (or whatever is her married name) and bad news for Reichert
snip
Perhaps more importantly, the commission is bi-partisan (not non-partisan) – 2 Ds, 2Rs, one non-voting chair
Which suggests different strategies for the 2 D members — if they were to push for a more balanced (i.e. more evenly distributed PVIs), would demographics take care of the rest over the next decade?
is ready to tell all (my opinion at least) the story of the Washington state redistricting. I believe the redistricting commission will let the chips fall where they may and follow mostly the pattern of the 1991 & 2001 Map.
2nd district will keep San Juan–Island
WhatcomSkagit. These four counties have been in the same congressional district since the 1950’s. You need to add 250K of Snohomish county to balance out the population. The question is what 250K? This is a crucial question. If you include Everett it makes the district more democratic but Congressman’s Larsen would then be moved to CD1. I say they move Everett to CD1 and this seats more to tossup catagory.CD1 is now 450K or so in Snohomish plus another 220K or so of Northern King’s county. It is no longer in Kitsap county. So CD1 does not cross the Puget sound and is only in two counties. This seat leans stronger towards the democrats then before because of the Everett for Kitsap swap.
CD5 will stay the same except it will lose enough of Walla Walla county to meet population standards. fairly safe R
CD4 will gain Walla Walla but lose klicktat and enough of Yakima to meet population standards.Safe R
CD3 is much safer GOP as it moves Eastward and loses all its part of Thurston plus the two coastal counties and part of Lewis county. safe R
CD6 drops down to get the coastal counties plus the balance of Kitsap and enough of Thurston county to meet population goals. This seat moves to the lean D catagory. Should be safe for Dicks forever.
CD9 picks up balance of Thurston plus CD6’s part of Pierce and loses its part of King County. Stronger D then before.
CD7 stays as it is and is strong D
Now what to you do with leftover Lewis-leftover Pierce and balance of King’s county as you CD8 & CD10 to deal with. You could have two tossup seats or one strong lean D seat and one strong lean R seat. I say CD8 picks up Lewis & Pierce parts plus the exurbs of King county. This seat should strongely lean R and will quick several % safer for Sherif R. CD10 will pickup the parts of CD1-CD9 that were given plus the inner suburbs of CD8 that were extracted. This seat will lean strongely D. Similar to CD1 & CD6 but not quite like CD9.
The GOP actually will have a more solid edge in its 4 seats and if CD2 loses Everett it will have a better shot at that seat.
Looking to the redistricting and without enough well 2008 partisan data I would tend to something like this.
These are not fix maps for me. These include some lines for follow.
WA-01:
J Inslee (D) Bainbridge Island (Kitsap)
My stimation tell this district should by some point over 58% Obama D+5. This would be the goal.
Top-10 city: Seattle (1st)
Top-10 county: Whatcom (9th), part of King (1st), part of Kitsap (6th).
WA-02:
R Larsen (D) Lake Stivens (Snohomish)
Only Snohomish county (58% Obama D+5).
Top-10 city: Everett (6th)
Top-10 county: Snohomish (3rd)
WA-03:
J Herrera (R) Camas (Clark)
Mi stimation about this district give 48.22% Obama R+4. Enough good for the republicans.
Top-10 city: Vancouver (4th)
Top-10 county: Clark (5th) and part of Pierce (2nd).
WA-04:
D Hastings (R) Pasco (Franklin)
Top-10 city: Yakima (10th)
Top-10 county: Yakima (7th) and Benton (10th)
WA-05:
C McMorris Rodgers (R) Spokane (Spokane)
Top-10 city: Spokane (2nd) and Spokane Valley (7th)
Top-10 county: Spokane (4th)
WA-06:
N Dicks (D) Bremerton (Kitsap)
My stimation tell this district should by some point over 58% Obama D+5. This would be the goal again.
Top-10 city: Seattle (1st)
Top-10 county: Thurston (8th), part of King (1st) part of Kitsap (6th).
WA-07:
J McDermott (D) Seattle (King)
D+very high after make enough safe WA-01, WA-06 and WA-10.
Top-10 city: part of Seattle (1st)
Top-10 county: inside King (1st)
WA-08:
D Reichert (R) Auburn (King)
Still I can not give stimation about this district. The goal would be to leave a R+1 or as maximum.
Top-10 city: Federal Way (8th) and Kent (9th)
Top-10 county: part of King (1st) and little part of Pierce (2nd)
WA-09:
A Smith (D) Tacoma (Pierce)
Would be a 58% Obama district including the most democratic areas of the Pierce county (55% Obama).
Top-10 city: Tacoma (3rd)
Top-10 county: inside Pierce (2nd)
WA-10:
OPEN S Del Bene (D) Medina (King
Still I can not give stimation about this district.
The goal would be a new 58% Obama district (at least) inside King county (70% Obama) and based in Bellevue.
Top-10 city: Bellevue (5th)
Top-10 county: inside King (1st)
With this map the chance of move the limits between WA-07, WA-10 and WA-08 inside King county is enough good for assure the goals.
The map only divide Kitsap county, because Inslee and Dicks live inside, King county and Pierce county.