What you are about to witness is equal parts political prognostication and mental health breakdown. I am officially predicting that the Democrats will keep the House with a small but sustainable majority. Republicans pick up 37 seats and Democrats pick up 5, leaving a net of 32. Pick your own justification: the polls are wrong, the pundits are wrong, the scientific modelers are wrong. You name it. It’s all true in my world. The real truth is that I cannot emotionally handle the Republicans winning a majority or even being within striking distance with the help of a few party switchers. So fuck it. The Democrats keep this mo fo. Below is the most plausible scenario I could muster for my fantasy to become reality. Pickups in bold:
AL-02 – Bright (D) 51, Roby (R) 49 – DCCC polling and investment very stable here.
AR-01 – Causey (D) 49, Crawford (R) 48 – DCCC has invested heavily. Lots of persuadable Dems here.
AR-02 – Griffin (R) 56, Elliott (D) 42 – Little Rock base keeps Elliott over 40%.
AZ-01 – Gosar (R) 50, Kirkpatrick (D) 46 – Have never seen tangible evidence that Kirkpatrick can win.
AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) 49, Schweikert (R) 48 – DCCC internal showed 7-point lead.
AZ-07 – Grijalva (D) 52, McClung (R) 45 – DCCC does not appear overly concerned here.
AZ-08 – Giffords (D) 52, Kelly (R) 45 – Or here.
CA-03 – Lungren (R) 51, Bera (D) 42 – Too tough a district for this cycle.
CA-11 – McNerney (D) 52, Harmer (R) 48 – Improved upticket performance may help.
CA-20 – Costa (D) 52, Vidak (R) 47 – Tough race for Costa in the Central Valley.
CA-47 – Sanchez (D) 51, Tran (R) 43 – Demographics here very tough for Tran.
CO-03 – Salazar (D) 48, Tipton (R) 48 – Salazar holds on by the narrowest of margins.
CO-04 – Gardner (R) 50, Markey (D) 45 – Markey hanging tough despite DCCC abandonment.
CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) 51, Frazier (R) 46 – DCCC taking this challenge very seriously.
CT-04 – Himes (D) 53, Debicella (R) 47 – Obama rally should help boost Himes.
CT-05 – Murphy (D) 53, Caliguiri (R) 46 – Late DCCC spending may boost Murphy.
DE-AL – Carney (D) 54, Urquhart (R) 43 – Smooth sailing for Carney.
FL-02 – Southerland (R) 51, Boyd (D) 46 – Lots of registered Dems here to come back to Boyd.
FL-08 – Webster (R) 51, Grayson (D) 44 – Hopefully Webster will be defeated in 2012.
FL-12 – Ross (R) 44, Edwards (D) 37, Wilkinson (TP) 18 – Ross gets by on big financial advantage.
FL-22 – Klein (D) 51, West (R) 49 – West seems too crazy for the district, but could very well win.
FL-24 – Adams (R) 54, Kosmas (D) 46 – Adams another one who could be ripe for the picking in 2012.
FL-25 – Garcia (D) 48, Rivera (R) 48 – Republicans really picked a live one here.
GA-02 – Bishop (D) 53, Keown (R) 47 – Demographics of this district very tough for Keown.
GA-08 – Scott (R) 53, Marshall (D) 47 – Why didn’t either party committee really get into this one?
HI-01 – Hanabusa (D) 50, Djou (R) 49 – Djou will pull a lot of Case supporters, but not quite enough.
IA-01 – Braley (D) 53, Lange (R) 45 – Braley prevails in spite of huge outside spending.
IA-02 – Loebsack (D) 51, Miller-Meeks (R) 46 – Early voting may save Loebsack.
IA-03 – Boswell (D) 52, Zaun (R) 46 – Boswell did a great job of defining Zaun here.
ID-01 – Minnick (D) 52, Labrador (R) 44 – NRCC has ignored this one for a reason.
IL-10 – Seals (D) 53, Dold (R) 47 – If Cooks says Lean D this cycle, it’s Lean D.
IL-11 – Kinzinger (R) 54, Halvorson (D) 46 – Halvorson simply drew a very, very tough candidate.
IL-14 – Foster (D) 49, Hultgren (R) 47 – Huge DCCC spending may bail out Foster.
IL-17 – Schilling (R) 50, Hare (D) 48 – My gut tells me that huge DCCC spending cut was not a good sign.
IN-02 – Donnelly (D) 51, Walorski (R) 46 – Donnelly has run a very strong campaign.
IN-08 – Bucshon (R) 55, Van Haaften (D) 43 – Not the year for Dems to win an R+8 open seat.
IN-09 – Young (R) 49, Hill (D) 49 – Sinking feeling that Young is emerging here.
KS-03 – Yoder (R) 55, Moore (D) 43 – Still have NEVER seen a poll, but does not seem competitive.
KY-03 – Yarmuth (D) 52, Lally (R) 44 – Neither party committee has taken an interest.
KY-06 – Chandler (D) 53, Barr (R) 47 – DCCC does not seem overly concerned here.
LA-02 – Richmond (D) 58, Cao (R) 41 – Demographics impossible for Cao.
LA-03 – Landry (R) 61, Sangisetty (D) 38 – This part of Louisiana going red fast.
MA-10 – Keating (D) 46, Perry (R) 43 – Crazy how Perry hangs around here with his baggage.
MD-01 – Harris (R) 51, Kratovil (D) 47 – Amazing campaign for Kratovil, but out with the tide.
MI-01 – Benishek (R) 47, McDowell (D) 46 – Sleeper race narrowly goes to the GOP.
MI-07 – Schauer (D) 50, Walberg (R) 46 – Schauer somehow seems to be out-performing 2008.
MI-09 – Peters (D) 51, Raczkowski (R) 46 – Late DCCC spending may boost Peters.
MN-01 – Walz (D) 50, Demmer (R) 44 – DCCC does not seem overly concerned here.
MN-08 – Oberstar (D) 54, Cravaack (R) 45 – Oberstar survives tough challenge.
MO-03 – Carnahan (D) 53, Martin (R) 43 – Well-funded but crazy challenger for Carnahan.
MO-04 – Skelton (D) 51, Hartzler (R) 47 – Skelton survives the political fight of his life.
MS-01 – Nunnellee (R) 50, Childers (D) 47 – Like Kratovil, out with the tide in spite of great campaign.
MS-04 – Taylor (D) 50, Palazzo (R) 48 – Hard to believe a guy who won by 50 last time is in this position.
NC-02 – Etheridge (D) 52, Ellmers (R) 45 – Neither party committee has taken an interest.
NC-07 – McIntyre (D) 53, Pantano (R) 46 – DCCC does not seem overly concerned.
NC-08 – Kissell (D) 51, Johnson (R) 47 – Nothing from the NRCC in this district.
NC-11 – Shuler (D) 53, Miller (R) 47 – DCCC does not seem overly concerned.
ND-AL – Berg (R) 51, Pomeroy (D) 49 – Pomeroy ran a great campaign, but too red a district.
NH-01 – Guinta (R) 52, Shea-Porter (D) 46 – No more rabbits to pull out of the hat for Shea-Porter.
NH-02 – Kuster (D) 49, Bass (R) 48 – Strong campaign from Kuster has won her big-time DCCC support.
NJ-03 – Adler (D) 49, Runyan (R) 48 – Difficult to imagine this district electing a dummy like Runyan.
NM-01 – Heinrich (D) 51, Barela (R) 48 – Heinrich turns back strong challenge in Dem district.
NM-02 – Pearce (R) 53, Teague (D) 47 – Teague fought a good fight, but looks to be out of it.
NV-03 – Heck (R) 49, Titus (D) 46 – NBC just moved this one to Lean R.
NY-01 – Bishop (D) 53, Altschuler (R) 46 – No spending from the DCCC here.
NY-13 – McMahon (D) 53, Grimm (R) 43 – No sign of life from Grimm.
NY-19 – Hall (D) 50, Hayworth (R) 49 – Strong top of ticket and late DCCC spending save Hall.
NY-20 – Murphy (D) 50, Gibson (R) 50 – Murphy pulls out extremely tough race.
NY-23 – Owens (D) 47, Doheny (R) 45 – Doug Hoffman saves the Dems again.
NY-24 – Arcuri (D) 52, Hanna (R) 48 – Arcuri somehow matches 2008 performance.
NY-25 – Maffei (D) 55, Buerkle (R) 45 – No recent signs of life from Buerkle.
NY-29 – Reed (R) 59, Zeller (D) 41 – No real contest from Dems here.
OH-01 – Chabot (R) 52, Driehaus (D) 44 – Chabot has been well ahead all along.
OH-06 – Wilson (D) 49, Johnson (R) 46 – Strickland running stronger may help.
OH-15 – Stivers (R) 51, Kilroy (D) 44 – DCCC never invested anything significant here.
OH-16 – Renacci (R) 50, Boccieri (D) 46 – Environment carries the day in free-spending race.
OH-18 – Gibbs (R) 49, Space (D) 48 – One of the biggest spending races in the country.
OR-05 – Schrader (D) 50, Bruun (R) 47 – Somewhere between Elway and Survey USA.
PA-03 – Kelly (R) 53, Dahlkemper (D) 46 – DCCC gave up on this weeks ago.
PA-04 – Altmire (D) 54, Rothfus (R) 45 – Altmire cruises in tough district.
PA-07 – Meehan (R) 50, Lentz (D) 50 – Huge DCCC spending makes it close, but Meehan holds on.
PA-08 – Fitzpatrick (R) 51, Murphy (D) 49 – Fitzpatrick one of the stronger Republican candidates.
PA-10 – Carney (D) 50, Marino (R) 49 – Amazing that a scoundrel like Marino is even in it.
PA-11 – Kanjorski (D) 50, Barletta (R) 50 – Survivor Kanjorski holds on once again.
PA-12 – Critz (D) 51, Burns (R) 49 – Burns may fare better with general electorate, but Critz holds on.
PA-15 – Dent (R) 54, Callahan (D) 44 – Callahan could take this seat in a better year.
RI-01 – Cicilline (D) 53, Loughlin (R) 44 – It’s friggin’ Rhode Island.
SC-05 – Mulvaney (R) 52, Spratt (D) 48 – Pundits don’t seem bullish on Spratt at all.
SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) 49, Noem (R) 49 – Noem baggage just enough for SHS to squeak by.
TN-04 – DeJarlais (R) 49, Davis (D) 48 – Trajectory looks awful for Davis.
TN-06 – Black (R) 63, Carter (D) 35 – Carter will not have to worry about Pelosi vote.
TN-08 – Fincher (R) 54, Herron (D) 45 – Wonder if Tanner would have won this.
TX-17 – Flores (R) 51, Edwards (D) 46 – Late gaffes from Flores make it semi-competitive.
TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) 50, Canseco (R) 47 – Buzz seems to be that Rodriguez has the edge.
TX-27 – Ortiz (D) 53, Farenthold (R) 43 – Farenthold lacks gravitas somewhat in those ducky pajamas.
VA-02 – Rigell (R) 50, Nye (D) 45 – Environment carries the day.
VA-05 – Hurt (R) 49, Periello (D) 46 – Will be sad to see Periello go if that is what happens.
VA-09 – Boucher (D) 52, Griffin (R) 45 – Still no spending from the DCCC here.
VA-11 – Connolly (D) 51, Fimian (R) 47 – Huge spending in DC by the DCCC saves the day.
WA-02 – Larsen (D) 52, Koster (R) 47 – Larsen seems to have taken control somewhat.
WA-03 – Heck (D) 50, Herrera (R) 50 – Lazy Herrera deserves to lose as much as anyone.
WA-08 – Reichert (R) 54, DelBene (D) 45 – Slightly larger than typical win for Reichert.
WI-03 – Kind (D) 52, Kapanke (R) 46 – Party committees just starting to spend here.
WI-07 – Duffy (R) 50, Lassa (D) 47 – Duffy has been ahead all along here.
WI-08 – Ribble (R) 53, Kagen (D) 47 – Ribble has been ahead in every poll I have seen.
WV-01 – Oliviero (D) 51, McKinley (R) 49 – Manchin turnaround helps Oliviero.
It’s plausible, but difficult. I’m more bullish on OH18, and I’m not giving up on IN09, MI01, TN04, or WI07 yet either. On the other hand, AR01, AZ05, CA11, CO03, CT04, CT05, IL14, MS04, NC08, NJ03, NY19, NY20, PA10, PA11, SDAL, TX23, and WA03 are really the difference between keeping the House at
32 and losing it at49. To me, the most likely range is in that35 to50 zone, so it’s still doable.I’m impressed because you have some Dems losing I have winning. Still, it has always been this way – race by race it looks tough for them to get control. But I don’t think we can ignore the generic ballot and a whole host of other factors. On the bright side you do show a plausible path but I fear it would now rank as one of the all time shocks to actually pull off, like Hillary winning the NH Primary. Net loss of 44-49 for me as of this moment.
I think it would be better for the Dems in 2012 if they lose the House by one seat rather than retain it. That way Obama can run against a do-nothing congress and Americans can smack the GOP right back out of power.
and I definitely dispute a few of your margins, but this is a great outline overall. Here’s hoping something similar actually happens, though I think that if the Dems retain control at all it’ll be by 5 votes or less, plus or minus Olivero.
Arcuri seems to be doing well, and I think his opposition to hydrofracking is a big plus here. However, I think NY-23 will probably go Republican.
to hold the house. I quibble with a few races here or there (I think we pick up WA-08 for example), but I could see this happening.
I actually think I buy it – maybe because I’m in denial too. Still, if everything breaks right for us, this is exactly what will happen.
Can go about 5-6 seats in either direction from here. Still think OH-16, OH-18, PA-07, PA-08, ND-AL, IN-09, and even AZ-01 are winnable. I am actually not convinced GA-08 is gone. Kind of agree on TN-04 though.
it seems like if so many races are to be saved, some of the safer ones should be by larger margins.