580 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread 2.0”

  1. …..with a voiceover reciting the results of the recent Bloomberg poll showing voters by an 80-19 margin want “the new Congress to cooperate with Obama” and then show a montage of Boehner, McConnell, Pence, and others repeatedly saying they plan to do the exact opposite?  Seems like a great closing argument nationally to show the consequences of voting for these lunatics.

  3. Does anyone know when PPP is going to release their Connecticut poll? I am getting tired of waiting for it.And as someone who has had to suffer through attack ads from the CT gov race, the CT senate race, 3 different House races, two NY senate races as well as commercials for Bergen county executive, I would just like PPP’s final numbers to have a little peace of mind. I live in NYC by the way, so I see ads from three different states.

  8. http://www.theatlantic.com/pol…

    He explains that, in a debate setting, most people judge politicians based on how they make them feel rather than on their talking points. “Candidates want to appear calm and focused rather than hyper and disorganized,” Khoury tells me. “One of the things that’s come true in the debates we’ve watched — we watch for ‘positive debate gesturing,’ things people are trained to do in debates — is that the greater indicator of success is the least amount of negative body language, body language that conveys arrogance, insincerity, or low confidence.

  14. I’ve been reading SSP since a little after the 2008 election, now I am finally going to start chiming in.

    Is there a place where I can see a complete list of the times the polls close in all the states?

  15. Boccieri was informed his wife, Stacey, had gone into labor. He dashed off the stage of a rally being held for himself and other Democrats and headed off to be with his wife.

    His quick exit caused former President Bill Clinton — the guest of the honor at the rally — to exclaim: “Another Democrat!”

    http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com…

    Great line by Clinton.

  16. Of course I’m interested in which chambers will flip, but are you looking at any particular races? Those which might decide control, or just a legislator you love/loathe who might lose this year?  

  18. Won’t proffer a guess at attendance but it was a lot. Just hope they all vote (in swing states!) and tell all their friends to as well. It’s all GOTV at this point.

  19. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…

    Still, given that there is some evidence of both a cellphone effect and a ‘robopoll’ effect, one wonders whether there are other states in which polling firms may be slightly underestimating Democratic numbers. This is one of the best and last hopes they have heading into Tuesday.

    There are sooooo many close House races, I’d guess even a one point error in the overall generic ballot could make a difference in say a dozen seats. When coupled with OfA’s efforts described in the past few days, that could save the House.

    But it’s feeling like flipping 8 heads in 10 tries at this point.

  22. In what races, if any, do you find your party’s candidate despicable/crazy/other but also dread the thought of the other candidate winning? Here are two I can think of, with ideal results

    NV-Sen: Angle defeats Reid and declines to take her seat because she finds the Senate “too restrictive.” Gibbons/Sandoval appoints a sane Republican.

    FL-Sen: Scott saves the GOP a major future headache by clearing Alex Sink and is indicted the next day. He goes to jail and Jennifer Carrol becomes the first African-American governor of Florida, and the first black Republican governor since Reconstruction.  

  24. For ballot requests and early vote, tallied up the results as of Friday.

    In IA-03, Democrats have an 8,971 ballot edge on Republicans.  On election day in 2006, the Dem advantage was 9,449.

    In IA-02, Democrats have a 16,833 ballot edge on Republicans.  On election day in 2006, the Dem advantage was 17,044.

    It already has reached consensus that Boswell was safe in IA-03, but in case anyone was worried about IA-02, Democrats have a crushing advantage there, similar to 2006.

  25. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…

    It also has a fair number of Asian-American voters, who can sometimes be hard to reach because of language or cultural barriers. These things could make a difference at the margins.

    (about 7% asians in WA, per the Census — could it be an effect similar to what was seen for Hanabusa in HI?)

  26. However, the second tweet down here kinda confuses me.  Does he actually know how EV’s voted for?

    RT @rossjmiller: Preliminary statewide early vote totals (excluding Eureka): Dem 162,774 GOP 156,150 Other 60,665 Here are totals from SOS.<blockquote>

    Breakdown of early voting statewide (minus 1 small county) is: 43%D, 41%R, 16%rest. Keys: Angle holding base, indie split, Nov. 2 turnout.

  27. Every pollster is wrong because they see some anecdotal energy in their polling station.  Or read into some early voting numbers and see something that professional pollsters with years and years of experience are missing.  Latest being cellphone-only households being the huge blind spot.  

  28. that DSCC ad in Alaska. Its here. The ad goes after Murkowski from the right! Attacking her for raising the deficit and for the bailout. If I’m reading this right, the DSCC is hoping to peel away some of Murkowski’s support to Miller.

  32. Well, it’s only a very tiny bit of good news, but according to Hotline:


    “Cook Political moves Sen. from GOP picking up 7-9 to 6-8. Good news for Dems. Odds of GOP winning maj. “non-existent,” according to Cook.”

    “Cook says #WASEN, #CASEN and #WVSEN are breaking toward Dems.”

    Link: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c…

  33. “The Cook Political Report is adjusting its current outlook to reflect a net gain for Republicans of 6 to 8 seats, down from 7 to 9 seats. While it is becoming increasingly likely that Republicans will hold all 18 of its own seats, Democrats’ prospects in three of their 19 seats have improved in recent days. Sens. Barbara Boxer in California and Patty Murray in Washington now appear to be headed for re-election, albeit by small margins. In the special election in West Virginia, Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin now holds an advantage. Currently there are 57 Democrats, two independents that caucus with Democrats, and 41 Republican Senators. Post-election, Republicans could hold between 47 and 49 seats to 51 to 53 seats for Democrats. This new outlook means that the odds of Republicans winning a majority in the Senate are now non-existent.”

  34. Sadly Nevada is not going our way….

    Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller just Tweeted these statewide early voting totals, excluding Eureka County: Democrats: 162,774 GOP: 156,150 Other: 60,665 These totals put the Republicans down to the Democrats by just 6,624 votes statewide going into election day, illustrating what happens when you add the rural counties into the Nevada electoral equation.

    If you follow the statistical sample into election day Angle looks like she’ll win it by 3 or 4..

  36. http://www.theatlantic.com/pol…

    Historically, I haven’t a clue whether Republicans overperform in the early vote, but if they manage 39% come election night, that’s huge for Whitman/Fiorina. I actually expect Dems to get around 43%, but I’ve been thinking GOP turn-out will be more around 34%. That Indie # just seems ridiculously small to me.

  40.  In Chicago and the link is here: http://www.barackobama.com/live/

    Pat Quinn just finished speaking and he gave a pretty good speech. He talked about a woman named Octavia who received a job under Obama’s stimulus plan. Then he said “I want to do what we did in Grant Park two years ago. Let’s welcome Obama!!”

    Now Obama is coming up and is happy the weather is really nice today. I hope he can really rally up the energy in Chicago because Democrats there need it.  

  41.  Seems to be giving a good speech. He is talking about defying conventional wisdom and said,” We will have another chance to say YES WE CAN!”  

  42.  Gave a great line that “We are proud to be Democrats but even more proud to be Americans.”

    He raised a good point of “the Republicans will say no to everything so the Democrats get blamed for it. The Republicans want you to have amniesa about Bush. You need to remind them we do not have amnesia. Do you want the policies that led us into the recession?”

  44. got an e-mail that he’ll be there tomorrow.  Blumiere’s not taking anything for granted is he?

  45. It had video of Strickland arguing for change back in 2006.  It was pretty strong.  Fortunately, it was during a football game… the viewers of which are mostly Republican.

    Still, very good closing ad for any late undecideds.

    The news was all about the Clinton rally today, though, so that’s good.

  46. I’ll tell you why: his Republican opponent has been dominating the NYC TV airwaves with fairly effective negative ads. The woman who narrates is familiar from prior attack ads, and she makes my skin crawl.  

  49. I think the low hanging fruit would be seats like NV-03, WA-03, some Florida seats, Philly suburb seats, NJ-03, NY-20. We should make this a project after the election, what does everybody think?

  51. after almost 12 hours of Philly canvassing. I am tired sleepy and missed date night with my hubby.  But hopefully we made a dent from knocking on all those doors…

  52. Not good news (805 likely Iowa voters between October 26 and 29):

    Terry Branstad leads Governor Chet Culver 50 percent to 38 percent. That’s down from a 19-point lead in the Register’s September poll, but still a comfortable advantage. Culver’s campaign released an internal poll last week showing a much tighter race, with Branstad ahead 46-40. I had assumed Republican internal polling also showed Culver gaining, because the Cook Political Report just shifted its rating on Iowa’s governor’s race from safe Republican to leaning Republican. I don’t think they would make that rating change if private polling showed Branstad at 50 percent with a double-digit lead.

    Kathie Obradovich blogged tonight that Culver leads by 9 percent among respondents who had already voted, even though he trails by 12 percent among the whole sample. The Register’s other piece on the new poll refers to “the electorate’s conservative profile” but gives no details about the partisan breakdown of the sample.

    Selzer and Co found Senator Chuck Grassley leading Roxanne Conlin 61 percent to 30 percent, virtually the same margin as in the Register’s September Iowa poll.

    Obradovich didn’t give poll numbers for the Congressional races but noted, “Mariannette Miller-Meeks appears to have the best chance of any of the GOP challengers to unseat an incumbent Democrat.” That would be quite an achievement, since IA-02 is D+7, but MMM is a good campaigner, and the DCCC’s latest commercial against her is terrible.

    Iowa Democrats need to get out the vote and hope the Register’s poll contains faulty assumptions about who will turn out on Tuesday.

  53. Nevada:

    Angle 49, Reid 47

    Washington:

    Murray 50, Rossi 47

    Wisconsin:

    Johnson 52, Feingold 46

    Illinois:

    Giannoulis 47, Kirk 44

    All polls were conducted between 10/25 and 10/30

    1. the whole D mode this election is to keep everything local, that our candidates are stronger, if they’re allowed to do their thing, instead of being overwhelmed by the national mood.

  61. Muhlenberg tracker is interesting. They now have the electorate at 48-44 Dem with Sestak +4 favorable and Toomey -2 unfavorable. The last four days without leaners Toomey support has gone 47, 46, 44, 43, while on the other hand support for Sestak without leaners over the same period has gone 39, 40, 41, 42.

    http://big.assets.huffingtonpo…

  62. Chris Coons will likely be a Senator from DE. Joe Manchin or John Raese will be a Senator from WV. Earl Ray Tomblin may be Gov of WV. Mark Kirk or Sexi Lexi will be a Sen from IL. Marlin Stutzman and Tom Reed will be congressmen. Can’t believe its already here.  

  63. Its going to be playing on MSNBC and BET.

    I personally think it will not have that large an impact, but who knows.

    It’s a good advertisement, I guess.

    1. I am suspicious of whatever party officials as well as high profile party members have to say in general. It is their job to say something positive about their party even if their is nothing positive to say.

  65. But he has a tendency to get things right… And he’s putting it all on the line to say what I’ve been saying here for some time but some of you still refuse to believe.

    Angle is a natural retail campaigner in small political subdivisions. But that’s not what a Senate race is about. And her campaign never could find a comfortable way to reconcile her past, controversial statements – they tried massage, change and deny – and she made plenty more during the campaign (Sharia law here, Canada’s terrorist conduit, Latinos-in-ads amnesia).

    In the end, if she loses, I believe the six weeks following the GOP nominee’s primary win – she had a double-digit lead in June polls – were pivotal. During that period, the Reid ad campaign defined her so starkly and turned enough people into Anglophobes to give him a chance.

    One more thing: Republicans do not have the huge turnout advantage in early voting they should in a wave election – under 4 points. And all the data I have seen tell me that unless Reid loses independents by 15 points or so, he will hold on. […]

    The result: Reid, 47 percent; Angle, 45 percent; rest, 4 percent; none of the above, 4 percent.

    A little tighter than my worst case scenario, so Ralston either suspects that Angle is winning over a few more Indies or she does slightly better on Tuesday, but it looks like we’re both picking the same winner on Tuesday. 😉

  67. I think this was mentioned yesterday, but it’s a fun story, so here’s another look:

    http://fwix.com/cleveland/shar…

    Alliance Democrat Rep. John Boccieri got a call he had been waiting for Saturday afternoon, and all of a sudden his last-minute campaigning for re-election came to a halt.

    Boccieri was informed his wife, Stacey, had gone into labor. He dashed off the stage of a rally being held for himself and other Democrats and headed off to be with his wife.

    His quick exit caused former President Bill Clinton — the guest of the honor at the rally — to exclaim: “Another Democrat!”

    I hate to boil something like this down to political advantage, but Boccieri is in the fight of his life, and the free media he’s getting on this has to be significant (and virtually priceless).

    It’s all over Google News when you search by his name. And I’d imagine the local press is making a big deal of it, too.

  68. I have a feeling the Republicans here will like these better.

    Governor: When you have a 40 percent negative going into a race because of your last name, you have to either 1) Not run; or 2) Delicately distance yourself from Dad and then destroy your opponent. Rory Reid probably should have chosen 1) and he failed to execute 2).

    Brian Sandoval, 51 percent; Reid the Younger, 42 percent; rest/none, 7 percent.

    CD3: Rep. Dina Titus & Co. have gone out of their way to blacken Joe Heck – tying him to Angle, distorting his legislative record, airing a brutal closing spot starring a cop denied insurance coverage. But despite her money advantage, Titus simply can’t stanch the bleeding among independents – and I think that costs her the race.

    Heck, 48 percent; Titus, 46 percent; rest, 6 percent.

    Again, he’s giving a couple more points to the GOP than I am. So I agree with him on the final call for NV-Gov (sadly), but I think it will be a little tighter and Sandoval just wins by 7 or 8%.

    Now NV-03 is where the two of us split… But only because both of us see this as VERY close, but he veers slightly one way while I go the other. As I showed last night, I think Reid’s coattails (provided by way of the NV Dems’ superior field operation) will be just enough for Dina Titus to hold on… And again, my worst model shows her BARELY hanging on by 0.34% (recount territory?) while my best model shows her winning by a not-that-much-more-comfortable 2.5%. Whether Ralston or I am correct, it seems NV-03 may end up much more the cliffhanger of the night than NV-Sen.

    Legislature: Democrats have a 12-9 edge in the state Senate. It will not change. Benny Yerushalmi will take Dennis Nolan’s seat, but state Sen. Joyce Woodhouse will lose. In the Assembly, Democrats have 28 seats. After Tuesday, that number will be 25.

    And I’m starting to agree with Ralston on possibly the final margin of the State Senate… Except that I still think Joyce Woodhouse is more likely to survive, just because she has less of an “enthusiasm gap” here in SD 5. It’s less than 2% here, while in SD 9 it’s closer to 4%. Perhaps Independents are breaking more for Benny Yerushalmi there, but I have a feeling Woodhouse is more likely to get the number she needs to win. If it’s 12-9, then I think no seats change hands.

    And in the Assembly, I’m thinking Dems may only lose 1 seat… And maybe we may yet keep the supermajority. Again, Ellen Spiegel is winning over A LOT of crossover votes here in AD 21, and April Mastroluca is looking plenty safe in AD 29. Northwest Dem underperformance is making me wonder if we can pick up AD 13, but that could get canceled out by Dem strength in North Las Vegas (AD 13 is a HUGE district that spans from the Southwest to the Northwest to the northern reaches of North LV.) A lot also depends on AD 40 up north, but I’m thinking the Carson City seat may now be a goner for us.

  69. Apparently a big success – lots of people, lots of great costumes and signs, good music, a showstopping event or two (Peace/Crazy Train from Cat and Ozzy?!), and some funny and poignant speeches.

    Any sense of whether this moves the dial at all? It wasn’t a GOTV event on the surface, but the subtext was pretty clear. I’m thinking this could possibly stoke enthusiasm among Dem-leaners a notch or two. We’ll see.

    The Rally to Restore Sanity has come to a close, and crowd estimates are beginning to trickle in. It is clear that a huge number of people attended the event (see photos from the rally here), but the calculations vary among sources.

    According to CBS News, 215,000 people showed up for the rally on Saturday. By comparison, CBS estimated that 87,000 — just 40% of the Sanity Rally estimation — attended Glenn Beck’s “Restoring Honor” rally in August.

    Canada’s CTV, meanwhile, wrote that 250,000 people were estimated to have partaken in the Rally to Restore Sanity.

    Earlier on Saturday, Brian Stelter tweeted that the Parks Service approximated that “well over 200,000” attended Saturday’s rally.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

    1. I figured Cuomo would lose at least some support because Paladino has been running attack ads consistenly since last week. The previous Marist poll had Cuomo up by 23.

  73. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.n…

    Example:

    He has Baron Hill (IN-09) as seat with a magic number of 41 at 6pm

    aka if all seats go per Nate’s projected results, 40 other seats (net, subtracting out probable D gains like DE-AL) would fall.

    Key bits:

    What you should be looking for is whether Republicans are consistently winning seats with magic numbers in the 60s, 70s, 80s or higher. If so, they could be in for a very big night. Conversely, if Democrats are holding onto seats with magic numbers in the teens, 20s, or 30s, that means they are overperforming their forecasts and could hold the House.

    By consistently, by the way, I do mean consistently: individual districts are fairly hard to forecast, and so Republicans almost certainly will pick off a few seats with very high magic numbers, and Democrats will almost certainly hold on to some with very low ones, regardless of what is happening elsewhere in the country.

    1. two weeks I saw a whole bunch of Fiorina ads on Youtube. They were only 15 seconds long but I switched to another tab on Firefox and hit the mute button on my keyboard.

  77. http://dyn.politico.com/printp…

    A high-level GOP source tells me party leaders have essentially given up on Republican Senate candidate Joe Miller and are now banking on a victory by write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski as the best bet for Republicans to keep the Alaska Senate seat. … [W]ith Miller’s campaign faltering, the source tells me that Republican leaders are now worried that Democrat Scott McAdams has a shot of winning and that Murkowski may be the only way to stop him.

  80. How is that race going? From the looks of the wikipedia page it is pretty negative and it could go either way. Any polling or ground reports? I like Fayard a lot, I think she has a real future.  

    1. Ballot measures, unless they’re very high profile, are often very hard to predict.

      Also if both Prop 20 and 26 pass then we still need 2/3 vote.  

      No matter what we’ll need 2/3 to raise taxes: of course I don’t want to raise taxes, but if the choice is higher taxes and fiscal oblivion then I know which way I’ll go: the problem is almost every Republican would rather see California disbanded then a cent raised.  So no matter what happens, this race is important.  

    1. but wasn’t t-paw mostly socially conservative after announcing he wasn’t running and he needed to shore up credentials for 2012?  if i’m mistaken i’m sure a MN poster here will correct me.

  82. According to Chuck Todd during Meet the Press this morning, the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies did a one-night poll in VA-05.  I think he said it was the night of Obama’s visit.  The result was:

    Hurt (R) – 45%

    Perriello (D) – 42%

    Clark (I) – 6%

    If indeed it was the night of Obama’s visit, then I doubt they polled many of the ~10K that were at the rally.

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