An objective ranking of competitive Democratic House seats.

Below is an objective ranking of SSP’s competitive Democratic House seats.  This is similar to SSP’s “Vulnerability Index,” but adds cash on hand as a third factor in addition to PVI and 2008 margin of victory.  I ranked the 96 Democratic seats identified by SSP according to these three categories, and averaged the rankings.  It fits my intuitive sense of these races pretty well.  The most important two factors it fails to consider are (1) polling and (2) candidate strength/name recognition.  The rote application of my criteria created two obvious outliers: MS-04 (Taylor), which is way too high at 33, and NH-02 (OPEN), which is way too low at 85.  Otherwise, it seemed to work pretty well.  Here they are, with the two current, best-funded challengers for each party listed:

1. TN-06 – OPEN – Leming (D) v. Black (R) – Republicans have a massive $450K CoH head start, in addition to the district’s R+13 lean.

2. MD-01 – Kratovil (D) v. Harris (R) – Kratovil’s CoH advantage is only 1.47X in this R+13 district, which he won by <1% in 2008.  Harris internal has Harris up big.

3. AR-01 – OPEN – Causey (D) v. Crawford (R) – Currently Dem and Rep CoH is very close, but that is only because Crawford has been in the race much longer than the Dems.  R+8 district.

4. NY-29 – OPEN – Zeller (D) v. Reed (R) – Zeller starts off nearly $300K behind in CoH in this R+5 district.  

5. AR-02 – OPEN – Wills (D) v. Griffin (R) – Griffin has a 1.82X CoH advantage, mostly because he has been in the race much longer than Wills.  R+5 district.  

6. LA-03 – OPEN – Sangisetty (D) v. Landry (R) -Sangisetty actually has a 1.43X CoH advantage, which would probably surprise most people.  R+12 district.  Still no announcement from Hunt Downer.

7. IN-08 – OPEN – Van Haaften (D) v. Bucshon (R) – Van Haaften has a 1.19X CoH advantage, but Bucshon has been in the race much longer.  R+8 district.

8. AL-02 – Bright (D) v. Roby (R) – 3-to-1 Bright CoH advantage keeps this from being higher.  Bright won this R+16 seat by <1% in 2008.  Bright internal shows Bright way ahead.

9. ID-01 – Minnick (D) v. Ward (R) – 3-to-1 Minnick CoH advantage keeps this from being higher.  Minnick won this R+18 district by 1% in 2008.  

10. KS-03 – OPEN – Moore (D) v. Yoder (R) – Stephene Moore starts off with a nearly $500K CoH deficit in this R+3 district.

11. TN-08 – OPEN – Herron (D) v. Fincher (R) – Herron has 1.25X CoH advantage, but Fincher has been in the race much longer.  R+6 district.

12. MI-01 – OPEN – Saltonstall (D) v. Benishek (R) – Neither of these will be their parties’ candidates.  FWIW, Benishek has a 1.27X CoH advantage in this R+3 district.

13. NY-23 – Owens (D) v. Doheny (R) – Doheny has a 2.13X CoH advantage.  Owens won this R+1 district by 5% in a 2009 special election.

14. OH-15 – Kilroy (D) v. Stivers (R) – CoH is dead even in this D+1 district, which Kilroy won by <1% over Stivers in 2008.

15. VA-05 – Periello (D) v. McKelvey (R) – Massive fundraising quarter gives Periello a 3-1 CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by <1% in 2008.  PPP shows tossup race with Hurt.

16. MS-01 – Childers (D) v. Nunnellee (R) – Childers has a 2.38X CoH advantage in this R+14 district, which he won by nearly 11% in 2008.  Weird poll showed Childers slightly ahead.

17. NY-24 – Arcuri (D) v. Hanna (R) – Arcuri has only a 1.38X CoH advantage, even though Hanna only got into the race recently.  Arcuri beat Hanna by 4% in 2008 in this R+2 district.

18. VA-02 – Nye (D) v. Rigell (R) – Nye has a 1.71X CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by 5% over incumbent Thelma Drake in 2008.

19. NM-02 – Teague (D) v. Pearce (R) – Teague has a 1.31X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 12% in 2008.  Multiple polls show this race neck-and-neck.

20. PA-12 – VACANT – Critz (D) v. Burns (R) – Burns has a 1.18X CoH advantage in this R+1 district.  Polling shows a toss-up in the special election.

21. PA-03 – Dahlkemper (D) v. Huber (R) – Dahlkemper has a 2.87X CoH advantage in this R+3 district.  Her slim, 2.5% margin of victory over incumbent Phil English in 2008 keeps this high on the list.

22. AZ-05 – Mitchell (D) v. Schweikert (R) – Mitchell has a 2.27X CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by nearly 10% over Schweikert in 2008.

23. MI-07 – Schauer (D) v. Rooney (R) – Schauer has a better than 3-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 2% in 2008.  Walberg internal has Walberg up.

24. OH-01 – Driehaus (D) v. Chabot (R) – Driehaus has a 1.14X CoH advantage in this D+1 district.  Driehaus beat Chabot by 5% in 2008.  Weird FDL poll showed Chabot up big.

25. WV-01 – Mollohan (D) v. McKinley (R) – CoH is dead even in this R+9 district.  Mollohan was unopposed in 2008.  Recent polling shows Mollohan has his hands full in the primary.

26. NH-01 – Shea-Porter (D) v. Guinta (R) – Shea-Porter has a 1.38X CoH advantage in this D+0 district, which she won by 6% over former Rep Jeb Bradley in 2008.  Shea-Porter is lucky that Guinta is as poor a fundraiser as she is.  PPP shows a tossup.

27. TN-04 – Davis (D) v. Bailey (R) – Davis has a 2.21X CoH advantage in this R+13 district, which he won by 21% in 2008.  Davis’s fundraising is poor.

28. NY-19 – Hall (D) v. Hayworth (R) – Hayworth has a 1.19X CoH lead over Hall in this R+3 district, which Hall won by 17% in 2008.  Hall’s fundraising is pathetic.

29. CO-04 – Markey (D) v. Gardner (R) – Markey has a 2.32X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which she won by 12% over incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in 2008.

30. NC-08 – Kissell (D) v. Johnson (R) – In spite of dreadful fundraising, Kissell has a 1.87X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 11% over incumbent Robin Hayes in 2008.  PPP showed Kissell way ahead.

31. PA-07 – OPEN – Lentz (D) v. Meehan (R) – Meehan has a 1.45X CoH advantage in this D+3 district.

32. TX-17 – Edwards (D) v. Flores (R) – Edwards currently has a 29-to-1 CoH advantage, but only because Flores drained his resources on the primary/runoff.  R+20 district, which Edwards won by 7.5% in 2008.  

33. MS-04 – Taylor (D) v. Palazzo (R) – This is way too high.  Taylor has a 1.85X CoH advantage in this R+20 district.  However, he won by 49% in 2008.  Sloppy fundraising by Taylor.

34. NY-20 – Murphy (D) v. Gibson (R) – Murphy has a 12-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by <1% in a 2009 special election.

35. CA-11 – McNerney (D) v. Goehring (R) – McNerney has a 2.27X CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

36. FL-08 – Grayson (D) v. O’Donoghue (R) – Grayson has an awesome 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 4 over incumbent Ric Keller in 2008.  Dan Webster will have a lot of catching up to do.

37. FL-22 – Klein (D) v. West (R) – Klein has a 2.36X CoH advantage in this D+1 district.  Klein beat West by 9% in 2008.  West internal shows a tossup.

38. VA-11 – Connolly (D) v. Fimian (R) – Connolly has a 1.69X CoH advantage in this D+2 district.  Connolly beat Fimian by 12% in 2008.  Fimian internal has Fimian up 5.

39. MA-10 – OPEN – Keating (D) v. Perry (R) – The Scott Brown-backed Perry has a 1.12X CoH advantage in this D+5 district.

40. PA-10 – Carney (D) v. Marino (R) – Carney sports a 13-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+8 district, which he won by 13% in 2008.

41. AZ-08 – Giffords (D) v. Paton (R) – Giffords has a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which she won by 12% in 2008.

42. PA-04 – Altmire (D) v. Buchanan (R) – Altmire has an impressive 12-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 12% in 2008.

43. FL-24 – Kosmas (D) v. Miller (R) – Kosmas has a 3.3X CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which she won by 16% over incumbent Tom Feeney in 2008.

44. AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick (D) v. Gosar (R) – Kirkpatrick has a 4.68X CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which she won by 16% in 2008.

45. SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin (D) v. Curd (R) – Herseth-Sandlin has a 2.38X CoH advantage despite unimpressive fundraising.  She won this R+9 district by a whopping 35% in 2008.  Rasmussen has Herseth-Sandlin ahead.

46. OH-16 – Boccieri (D) v. Renacci (R) – Boccieri has a 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

47. NV-03 – Titus (D) v. Heck (R) – Titus has a 3.51X CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which she won by 5% over incumbent Jon Porter in 2008.  Mason-Dixon has Titus down.

48. GA-08 – Marshall (D) v. Hicks (R) – Marshall has a massive 17-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+10 district, which he won by 14.5% in 2008.

49. ND-AL – Pomeroy (D) v. Berg (R) – Pomeroy has an impressive 4.77X CoH advantage in this R+10 district, which he won by 24% in 2008.  Rasmussen shows Berg ahead.

50. HI-01 – VACANT – Hanabusa (D) v. Djou (R) – Djou has a 1.47X CoH advantage in this D+11 district.  Bizarre, jungle special election complicates matters in this district.  Multiple polls show that the special is a tossup.

51. WI-08 – Kagen (D) v. Trager (R) – Kagen has an impressive 5.66X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 8.1% in 2008.

52. IA-03 – Boswell (D) v. Gibbons (R) – Boswell has a 2.18X CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 14% in 2008.

53. NY-01 – Bishop (D) v. Cox (R) – Bishop has a 2-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+0 district, which he won by 17% in 2008.  Weird FDL poll showed a tossup race.

54. SC-05 – Spratt (D) v. Mulvaney (R) – Spratt has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+7 district, which he won by 25% in 2008.  PPP showed Spratt ahead.

55. NJ-03 – Adler (D) v. Runyan (R) – Adler sports an enormous 12-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 4% in 2008.

56. CT-04 – Himes (D) v. Debicella (R) – Himes has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 4% over incumbent Chris Shays in 2008.

57. MO-04 – Skelton (D) v. Stouffer (R) – Skelton has a 4.5X CoH advantage in this R+14 district, which he won by a whopping 32% in 2008.

58. NY-13 – McMahon (D) v. Grimm (R) – McMahon has a 2.57X CoH advantage in this R+4 district, which he won by 28% in 2008.

59. MI-09 – Peters (D) v. Goodman (R) – Peters has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which he won by 9.5% in 2008.

60. PA-11 – Kanjorski (D) v. Barletta (R) – Kanjorski has a nearly 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+4 district.  Kanjorski beat Barletta by 3% in 2008.

61. KY-06 – Chandler (D) v. Barr (R) – Chandler has nearly a 5-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+9 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

62. IN-09 – Hill (D) v. Young (R) – Hill has a nearly 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 19% in 2008.  Sodrel internal has the race a tossup.

63. PA-08 – Murphy (D) v. Fitzpatrick (R) – Fitzpatrick closed the fundraising gap fast.  Murphy has a 2.79X CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which Murphy won by 15% in 2008.

64. OH-18 – Space (D) v. Gibbs (R) – Space has a huge 14-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+7 district, which he won by 20% in 2008.

65. OH-13 – Sutton (D) v. Ganley (R) – Highly unusual race in which the challenger has a 7-to-1 CoH advantage.  The district is D+5, and Sutton won by 29% in 2008.  Sutton needs to pick up the fundraising pace.

66. NM-01 – Heinrich (D) v. Barela (R) – Heinrich has a 2.66X CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 11% in 2008.

67. CO-03 – Salazar (D) v. Tipton (R) – Salazar has an impressive 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+5 district, which he won by 23% in 2008.

68. TX-23 – Rodriguez (D) v. Canseco (R) – Rodriguez has a 21-to-1 CoH advantage, but only because Canseco drained his resources on the primary/runoff.  Rodriguez won this R+4 district by 14% in 2008.

69. OR-05 – Schrader (D) v. Bruun (R) – Schrader has a 3.44X CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 16% in 2008.

70. WA-03 – Heck (D) v. Herrera (R) – Heck has quietly amassed a nearly 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+0 district.  My sense is that the vulnerability of this district is overstated.

71. UT-02 – Matheson (D) v. Philpot (R) – Matheson has a 162-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+15 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

72. PA-17 – Holden (D) v. Argall (R) – Holden has an 8-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 27% in 2008.

73. CT-05 – Murphy (D) v. Greenberg (R) – Murphy has a 3-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+2 district, which he won by 20% in 2008.

74. NC-11 – Shuler (D) v. Eichenbaum (R) – Shuler has a 16-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 26% in 2008.

75. VA-09 – Boucher (D) v. Griffith (R) – Boucher has a 22-to-1 CoH advantage, but Griffith only got into the race recently.  Boucher was unopposed in this R+11 district in 2008.

76. GA-02 – Bishop (D) v. Keown (R) – Bishop only has a 2-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by a whopping 38% in 2008.

77. IL-11 – Halvorson (D) v. Kinzinger (R) – Halvorson has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which she won by 24% in 2008.  Kinzinger internal has him up.

78. NJ-12 – Holt (D) v. Sipprelle (R) – Holt has only a 1.65X CoH advantage in this D+5 district, which he won by 28% in 2008.  

79. IL-14 – Foster (D) v. Hultgren (R) – Foster has a 12-to-1 CoH advantage, partly because Hultgren used most of his resources on the primary.  Foster won this R+1 district by 15.5% in 2008.

80. MO-03 – Carnahan (D) v. Martin (R) – CoH is dead even in this D+7 district, which Carnahan won by 36% in 2008.  Pick it up, Russ!

81. NY-25 – Maffei (D) v. Bitz (R) – Maffei has an 11-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 13% in 2008.

82. CA-18 – Cardoza (D) v. Berryhill (R) – Cardoza has a 2.15X CoH advantage.  Cardoza was unopposed in this D+4 district in 2008.

83. OR-01 – Wu (D) v. Brodhead (R) – Wu has only a 1.68 CoH advantage.  Wu was unopposed in this D+8 district in 2008.

84. WV-03 – Rahall (D) v. Maynard (R) – Rahall has a 42-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+6 district, which he won by 34% in 2008.

85. NH-02 – Swett (D) v. Bass (R) – Leftovers from a prior run give Swett a 4-to-1 CoH advantage, which is why this is so low on the list.  D+3 district.  PPP showed a big Bass lead.

86. WI-07 – Obey (D) v. Duffy (R) – Obey has a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 22% in 2008.

87. CO-07 – Perlmutter (D) v. Frazier (R) – Perlmutter has a 3.3X CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which he won by 27% in 2008.

88. OH-06 – Wilson (D) v. Johnson (R) – Wilson has an 8-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

89. IN-02 – Donnelly (D) v. Walorski (R) – Donnelly has a 5.5X CoH advantage in this R+2 district, which he won by 37% in 2008.

90. IL-08 – Bean (D) v. Walsh (R) – Bean has a 22-to-1 CoH advantage, partly due to Walsh’s use of resources in a competitive primary.  Bean won this R+1 district by 21% in 2008.

91. WA-02 – Larsen (D) v. Koster (R) – Larsen has a 7-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+3 district, which he won by 25% in 2008.

92. WI-03 – Kind (D) v. Kapanke (R) – Kind has a 6-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which he won by 29% in 2008.

93. MN-01 – Walz (D) v. Demmer (R) – Walz has a 31-to-1 CoH advantage in this R+1 district, which he won by 31% in 2008.

94. RI-01 – OPEN – Cicilline (D) v. Loughlin (R) – Cicilline has quickly built a 4-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+13 district.

95. CA-47 – Sanchez (D) v. Tran (R) – Sanchez has a 3.45X CoH advantage in this D+4 district, which she won by 44% in 2008.

96. GA-12 – Barrow (D) v. Smith (R) – Barrow has a 29-to-1 CoH advantage in this D+1 district, which he won by 32% in 2008.