KS-04: Pompeo Leads Goyle by Only 7 Points in New SUSA Poll

SurveyUSA for KWCH-TV (8/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

Raj Goyle (D): 42

Mike Pompeo (R): 49

David Moffett (L): 4

Susan Ducey (RP): 1

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Todd Tiahrt’s open seat isn’t high on too many lists compiling Democratic takeover opportunities, but this new SUSA poll suggests that Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle is within striking distance of ex-RNC committeeman Mike Pompeo. The fact that Goyle is doing so well this early in the campaign is already a remarkable achievement — in a district that favored McCain over Obama by 18 points, and Bush over Kerry by a whopping 30%, Goyle is already out-performing those recent Democratic base lines.

Of course, it probably helps that Pompeo is apparently a huge douchebag. Recall that the second-, third-, and fourth-place GOP primary finishers are all holding back on endorsing Pompeo, who even failed to return a congratulatory call from runner-up Jean Schodorf. His campaign was also kept busy yesterday apologizing for linking to a racist blog post on their official Twitter account that characterized Goyle, who was raised Hindu but went to Christian schools, as a “turban topper”.

Still, it’s gonna be incredibly hard for Goyle to get over the next hump, but you’ve got to like these numbers for what they are.

127 thoughts on “KS-04: Pompeo Leads Goyle by Only 7 Points in New SUSA Poll”

  1. for the GOP to lose a district like KS-4 in a supposedly republican year, to a guy with a very un-caucasian name like Raj.  It would show that their fear-mongering and class/race warfare angles pushed by the tea party will have totally blown up in their face.  

  2. Remember, most people said Reid was dead in the water before the Republicans nominated Sharron Angle. We don’t know what happens in these kinds of races. If Pompeo keeps screwing up, the electorate may turn to the lesser known Goyle just because he’s safer.

  3. I don’t doubt a Democrat could pull somewhat of a decent number in this district, but with their odd California numbers, I doubt they are anymore accurate here.

  4. This does not seem right, I will need to see some more polling to back it up. I would love for us to win but this just seems too good to be true. We really need to see some more data. Markos!

  5. I doubt Raj will catch up but it shows how the R’s have hurt themselves this cycle nominating unlikeable candidates.

    It isn’t “perception” that SurveyUSA is the best. In both of Nate Silver’s pollster ratings they’ve scored in the top 1% of best polling operations. The data was taken from the past ten years and shows they are very dependable. Like an earlier poster said they were ahead of the curve in 09′ as well.  

  6. Obama about 40%, and Goyle is polling at 42%.

    Which is great.  But the national trend- an average- happens to be +1% liberal Democratic baseline shift per year for about the last 15 years.

    In 5-10 years this could well be a Democratic seat. I like watching majority Republican-voting cities and metro areas flip.  The last list I saw of these was pretty short already and the cities left on it are ever smaller.

  7. Even in a year like this, this is a fairly credible number.

    1. Pompeo just won a nasty primary and the wounds haven’t healed yet.

    2. The district is Republican, but has a some areas of historic Democratic allegiance (the rural south eastern counties) and a Democratic base of sorts in Wichita. This is the district that Dan Glickman represented. It can elect Democrats.

    3. This is an open seat – with very credible candidates for both parties, open seats tend to be more competitive than incumbent held seats, even in wave elections.

    4. Goyle has been widely praised as a strong candidate, a good campaigner who has won in a Republican district for the legislature. He’s definitely a great recruit for the seat.

    5. For whatever it is worth, Tiahart won’t be on the ballot for Senate, so any potential enthusiasm and  coat-tails in his home district won’t benefit Pompeo in November.

    Does that mean that Goyle is likely to win? Odds are no. 42% is a long leap to 50%. Pompeo will probably consolidate Republican support and win the election. If I were betting right now, I’d imagine a 55% 45% split for Pompeo a solid win for the Republicans, but very respectable showing for Goyle.

    But that doesn’t rule out a candidate like Pompeo somehow managing to implode and give Goyle a shot at an upset.  He seems like enough of a jerk and a wing-nut that he could make it happen.

    The dynamics of the district and  the candidates make 49-42 sound like a fairly credible poll result for this point in the race – something the DCCC and donors should be looking at as they strategize where resources are going to go and where upsets might be possible.

  8. I clicked on that racist blog post story.  Holy……..

    The post was written by Bob Pinkstaff of Wichita, a retired Marine gunnery sergeant who claims the country is being invaded by Mexicans and Muslims and that only Christians should hold public office.

    As a retired Marine, what part of uphold the Constitution’s Article VI, Section 3 does he not understand?

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