FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Confusion Reigns

Ipsos for Miami Herald and St. Petersburg Times (pdf) (8/6-10, registered voters, 7/9-11 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 30 (31)

Bill McCollum (R): 26 (30)

Bud Chiles (I): 12 (12)

Undecided: 29 (24)

Alex Sink (D): 29 (31)

Rick Scott (R): 30 (34)

Bud Chiles (I): 14 (13)

Undecided: 26 (16)

(MoE: ±4%)

The newest Ipsos poll in Florida finds Alex Sink gaining a little ground over her Republican opponents since last month, as they’ve continued to turn each other even more radioactive in their battle. However, unlike Mason-Dixon‘s gubernatorial poll from this week, they find Rick Scott matching up better with Sink than does McCollum… recall that Mason-Dixon showed a competitive Sink/McCollum race, but Sink demolishing Scott as the Medicare fraud story finally seemed to sink in with voters.

GOP primary numbers, with trendlines from 5/14-18:

Rick Scott (R): 42 (22)

Bill McCollum (R): 32 (46)

Undecided: 23 (25)

(MoE: ±5.9%)

There’s also a big difference here between Ipsos and Mason-Dixon, in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Mason-Dixon found McCollum shooting back into the lead 34-30, but here Ipsos gives Scott a solid lead like nothing has happened. (You’ll note the trendlines make it look like Scott is surging, but those go all the way back to May when Scott was just getting started.)

For what it’s worth, though, there are two new Republican polls out in the last few days that suggest that Mason-Dixon is on the right track. Neither one is for the McCollum camp, although they’re both for McCollum allies. A Tarrance poll for the Florida Medical Association (taken 8/10-12) gives McCollum a 44-40 lead. And a McLaughlin & Associates poll for the Chamber of Commerce (taken 8/11-12) gives McCollum a pretty wide lead, at 45-33.

Ipsos Senate numbers, trendlines from 7/9-11:

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (17)

Marco Rubio (R): 29 (28)

Charlie Crist (I): 33 (35)

Undecided: (20)

Jeff Greene (D): 19 (18)

Marco Rubio (R): 30 (29)

Charlie Crist (I): 32 (34)

Undecided: 19 (19)

(MoE: ±4%)

Last month’s Ipsos Senate numbers were pretty favorable to Charlie Crist, some of the best numbers he’d put up since his big switcheroo. There’s a little regression to the mean here this time, although he’s still in the lead in both Kendrick Meek and Jeff Greene matchups. Or is there some actual movement toward Marco Rubio going on? (See the Mason-Dixon poll below.)

Dem primary numbers, with trendlines from 5/14-18:

Jeff Greene (D): 35 (9)

Kendrick Meek (D): 31 (33)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (10)

Undecided: 30 (41)

(MoE: ±6.4%)

With the Dem primary fast approaching, Ipsos still sees a huge number of undecideds. They give Jeff Greene, of vomit-coated yacht fame, a small lead over Kendrick Meek. So Greene’s on track to win, right? Well, maybe not. (Again, see the Mason-Dixon numbers below.)

Mason-Dixon (pdf) (8/9-11, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 18 (19)

Marco Rubio (R): 38 (32)

Charlie Crist (I): 33 (38)

Undecided: 11 (11)

Jeff Greene (D): 12 (NA)

Marco Rubio (R): 38 (NA)

Charlie Crist (I): 39 (NA)

Undecided: 11 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

We’ve already posted about the surprising gubernatorial results from Mason-Dixon, but these are also surprising, because they’re the first non-Rasmussen pollster in a while to give an edge to Marco Rubio (at least in a Kendrick Meek matchup). Of all pollsters, they seem to pick up on the biggest disparity in how Meek and Greene perform: and here, it’s Greene who underperforms dramatically (compared with Meek), enough to throw the election to Crist. Crist clearly understands the dynamics and is further hitching his hopes to the Democratic wagon, as seen with his announcement yesterday that he supports Barack Obama’s support for construction of the mosque near Ground Zero.

Dem primary numbers, with trendlines from 8/2-4:

Kendrick Meek (D): 40 (33)

Jeff Greene (D): 26 (29)

Maurice Ferre (D): 5 (5)

Undecided: 28 (31)

(MoE: ±5%)

As I alluded to above, we have a very different result here in the Dem primary from Mason-Dixon, who show Meek starting to run away with it. So, with the Florida primary only a little more than a week away, we have agreement between Ipsos and Mason-Dixon on… absolutely nothing.

12 thoughts on “FL-Gov, FL-Sen: Confusion Reigns”

  1. Greene came out  opposing the religious free center in NYC, Meek said it has no relevance in a Florida U.S. Senate Race during a debate.  I don’t think that answer will hurt Meek.  I haven;t see the debate yet, but C-Span will re-air it.  

  2. acting at the moment as a kind of proxy none-of-the-above or not-sure answer for these poll respondents?  Otherwise why would 12-14% select that option.

    But 26-29% undecided’s size is so large these numbers don’t mean much. Maybe after the primary with the choices firmed up they will start deciding.  

  3. More than many states, I look at Florida being comprised of very specific blocs of voters. Among the fairly well-defined blocs are non-Jewish elderly, Jewish retiree, African-American, Cuban, non-Cuban Hispanic, white rural, white urban/suburban, LGBT, maybe a few others. In Florida, more than many states, it’s putting together a winning coalition that’s key, as opposed to a straight-up liberal/moderate/conservative calculation that might work elsewhere.

    And the interplay between Greene/Meek on the Dem side may determine which blocs line up where. Meek would probably consolidate most African-Americans, and get a big chunk of non-Cuban Hispanics (and LGBTs, I’d wager), but lose a lot of elderly Jews to Crist. Greene would help keep Jewish retirees voting D (though Crist could win a lot of ’em), but put African-Americans and non-Cuban Hispanics up for grabs. In other words, making out with Obama and being slammed for it so much he got driven from the Republican Party may turn out to be a great thing for Charlie Crist’s political prospects.

    Is that irony? That a powerful political slam ends up working in a candidate’s favor? I always forget how irony works.

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