Ipsos for Reuters (8/6-10, likely voters, no trend lines):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 39
John Kasich (R): 48
Undecided: 13Lee Fisher (D): 36
Rob Portman (R): 43
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4.3%)
This poll released on Tuesday has been the poor puppy at the SSP pound that no one wants to take home; the first look at the Ohio races by Ipsos finds the Dems in pretty dire shape. In fact, Ipsos’s numbers are worse than anything that Rasmussen has put up since March (for OH-Gov) or January (for OH-Sen). The problem here for Dems seems to be the enthusiasm gap, with Ipsos reporting that 75% of registered Republicans plan to vote while 52% of registered Dems plan to vote. (You might recall that Ipsos polled Nevada last week, and released two sets of numbers showing huge disparities between RVs and LVs. While they don’t release separate RV head-to-heads here, I can imagine similar numbers disparities here, based on that gap.)
The poll also looked at who to blame for the economic downturn, which has hit Ohio particularly hard, and lo and behold, “Wall Street” and banks draw the most of the blame, with 93% of respondents blaming them. Along those lines, Reuters has a companion article looking deeper at Kasich’s time with Lehman Brothers (including his relationship with Lehman head Dick Fuld), and also how Kasich is still touting his Wall Street experience as a plus, saying “This experience has been fantastic and will make me a much better governor,” (even as Dems bludgeon him with it).
is that their model from what they think to use or is that based off anything? I dont deny the gap, just wondering. Is this an indication that Obama will be spending a lot of time in Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati? Dreihaus really needs the help or would Obama also hurt him with other voters in Cincinnati?
Damn the GOP and their effing gerrymander. I shouldnt even have to be thinking about the merits of Obama in OH-1 and OH-15. If we screw this up, they could do a lot of damage with them having to lose two seats. And of course every statewide position where this contentious (Gov, Auditor, and SoS) are we pretty much toss-ups, IIRC.
Strickland has never been down like that in any poll this entire cycle. For a 23% enthusiasm gap to be real in a high-turnout, ad-saturated state like Ohio, Ipsos’ turnout model must be downright apocalyptic.
The Senate numbers are slightly more plausible but again, even Scotty Rass hasn’t put out numbers like these. I for one am going to need some corrobation on Portman being up by 7 before I take it as fact.
Sidebar, I had canvassers from the Ohio Dem party and OFA come to my door yesterday. We talked a bit about these races, the House race, and the race in Ohio house district 18, where my rep, democrat Matt Patton, is defending a marginal seat in southwest Cuyahoga county. This cycle is about to get really heated around these parts.
My current thinking in Ohio is…
Democrat – 35%
GOP – 34%
Independent – 31%
Fisher – 93/5/47 = 50%
Portman – 7/95/53 = 50%
Strickland – 90/5/46 = 48%
Kasich – 10/95/54 = 52%
Fisher needs to work the Brunner crowd hard, given her voters probably aren’t too enthusiastic in the wake of her “endorsement.” In fact, I’d really like to see Brunner campaign her, which I concede probably won’t happen. Portman, for his part, needs to keep Fisher from painting him as the race’s DC insider.
I think Strickland’s in slightly worse shape, if only because, unlike Fisher, he’s an incumbent. Thankfully, while his approval is pretty lukewarm, it’s not as dreadful as some other Govs, and he’ll be more than competitive here.
Does the electorate have a reason for sending Strickland back for a 2nd term? Are they better off today than they were 4 years ago? Both are probably pretty doubtful. Its almost always easier to make a race about the incumbent than the challenger, unless the challenger is really polarizing (Angle, for one).
I can’t see how Fisher jumps Portman. It would take an actual event at this point. Portman can outspend and has the overall political climate in his sails.
Kasich is about the most flawed candidate I’ve seen in Ohio this side of Ken Blackwell, yet his numbers keep improving even as more dirt gets out about him.
I am not looking forward to November.