Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Since we’ve had some chatter in the comments on the subject lately, it’s high time we included another demographic poll in the Weekly Open Thread. So please take a moment to respond to our poll, either by checking below the fold or clicking here. I’m curious to see if the age of the average Swingnut has moved at all in recent years.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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303 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  3. I have been interested in political movies lately. Does anyone have any recommendations for me? I have seen “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” of course. I recently watched “Distinguished Gentleman” with Eddie Murphy, and it was hilarious. I like “Primary Colors” somewhat. Of course who can forget “The Candidate”. So name a few of your favorite political movies. As far as TV shows go, the West Wing all the way. Speaking of the West Wing does anyone think Jennifer Brunner looks like CJ at all?

  4. What are the good online resources for those of us who analyze polls, look for outliers, understand the variance within cross-tabs, etc?

    One relevant question — how does one statistically determine an outlier, and what are the implications of excluding that outlier from a model? Is it ever credible to assume a “normal distribution” for the variance of different polls?

  5. simply ridiculous to think that there is no majority support for gay marriage among young people.

    Here’s a look at exit polls to see what % of under-30s voted yes on gay marriage bans.

    AR (2004): 65%

    GA (2004): 72%

    KY (2004): 68%

    MI (2004): 51%

    MS (2004): 83%

    MT (2004): 57%

    ND (2004): 60%

    OH (2004): 51%

    OK (2004): 70%

    OR (2004): 44%

    UT (2004): 73%

    AZ (2006): 39%

    TN (2006): 77%

    VA (2006): 52%

    WI (2006): 40%

    AZ (2008): 48%

    CA (2008): 39%

    FL (2008): 53%

    Note, AZ voted in both 2006 and 2008, although the 2008 version was a lot less restrictive.

    Just look at these numbers. The 2004 numbers paint a bleak picture, until you realize it’s dominated by conservative Southern/Western states. Look at Oregon, where even six years ago, us young’uns stuck up for gay rights. If only 51% of young voters in Michigan and Ohio opposed gay marriage six years ago, imagine where they stand now. These states are close to the US as a whole on social issues, if not a bit more conservative.

    The same is probably true of VA. And this is a state which is close to the national average in terms of partisan split but is also home to many social conservatives (Pat Robertson, anyone?). It’s probably more conservative than the country as a whole yet the youngest group is probably split 50/50 if not in favor by now. And swingy WI, though probably being a bit more liberal than the country as a whole because of its progressive heritage, saw its young voters oppose the gay marriage ban 60-40. Four years ago. By now it’s probably approaching 2-1 in favor.

    CA is more liberal than the country as a whole, sure, but 22 points more liberal? I’ll need convincing on that, and it can’t just be done by pointing to Cali’s D lean, especially since many Democratic areas in California voted for Prop 8.

    Really, among people my age, opposing gay marriage is seen as something dinosaurs do. This issue, like immigration now, was a favorite Republican wedge issue only a few years ago, but it’s a ticking time bomb for them.

  6. Where do we all see our fellow members going in politics? Do we see them getting into politics at all? Political journalism, pundits, politicians, strategists, etc?  

  7. Kinda interested here. The NRCC was forced to work with a B-list candidate, who is struggling to raise money. The Dem candidate isn’t raising much money, but is raising enough. Is Buchson favored just because of the lean of the district, or what?  

  9. Landry has a TV ad just hammering Hunt Downer for his support of the Clinton’s, being a former dem,  his run for gov in 2003 against Jindal and Blanco, votes for taxes, support for HillaryCare, and being not anti-gay enough. I think, in that district, it will work. Landry’s financial advantage will help him get this ad out. Hopefully Downer is well-respected enough with LA Republicans that Landry’s smears don’t work.  

  10. “One more time…I am not getting out of the race! Rumors started again and they are not true. I am the nominee and it is time to unify and move forward.”

  12. today I went to Jamestown, which is in RI-01 but getting there from my house requires going through RI-02. While driving there I passed by a bunch of people holding signs for Mark Zaccaria, the Republican candidate for RI-02 (who got his ass whooped in 2008). I think one of the people may have been the candidate himself. Found it amusing, especially since that group of 5-10 people probably represents half the Republican population of RI-02.

  14. Just read all the open thread comments for the first time this weekend, it´s quite a different path than we normally take. FYI for the age game I am 18.

    Can I pose a question?

    If you could save (guarantee their victory) one incumbent senator, and once incumbent representative, and guarantee victory to one senate challenger and one house challenger, who would it be. Let´s try to stay away from the ridiculous (like supporting the some dude running against Ron Paul in TX 14)

    For me:

    Incumbent Sen: Barbara Boxer

    Incumbent Rep: Tom Periello

    Challenger Sen: Robin Carnahan

    Challenger Rep: Dan Seals

    Your thoughts?

  16. I got my voter registration card from the county elections office. So I’m all set to vote this November. (Sorry eMeg and Failorina, your not getting my vote.)

  17. Allen has conceded to Dan Benishek:

       Petoskey, MI – Michigan First District Congressional candidate Jason Allen, R-Alanson, will not pursue a recount of the official election results certified by the State Board of Canvassers on Friday.

       “Over the last few months we had a spirited campaign and I am truly humbled by the support I have received across the First Congressional District,” Allen said. “This past week I have been speaking to Republican leaders across the state, my supporters and most importantly my family, to determine the best course of action. As a result of those conversations, I have decided not to pursue a recount.”

       After all the precincts had reported on election night, the Secretary of State website showed a one vote difference between Allen and his primary opponent Dan Benishek. The certification process resulted in the numbers changing to give Mr. Benishek a 15 vote lead.

       “It is time to put the primary behind us and move to the general election. It is time for all conservatives to band together to defeat Gary McDowell. I look forward to working with Dan Benishek in the fall campaign. The First Congressional District is long overdue for conservative representation in Congress. I believe Dan Benishek will be an outstanding Congressman for Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula,” Allen said.

       The record turnout in the Republican primary holds promise for a strong showing November. Over 70,000 voters turned out to vote in the Republican primary, which has historically seen about 40,000 voters participating in the last 10 years.

    I don’t want to link ya’ll to Red State, so I’m just posting this here.  

  18. Democrats currently hold a 56-44 majority in the Iowa House. We have at least four decent pickup opportunities: three in open seats (House districts 74, 51 and 99) and one where the first-term Republican incumbent won by 13 votes in 2008 (House district 37).

    If Democrats win two of those four districts, Republicans would need to win nine Democratic-held seats to claim the majority. They have several decent open-seat targets, but not enough to win the majority without also defeating a bunch of Democratic incumbents.

    Democrats have a 32-18 majority in the Iowa Senate. Republicans have basically no chance at winning the chamber this year, but if they pick up four or more seats they will be in decent position going into 2012. Their main targets are the open Iowa Senate district 1 (Sioux City) and four first-term incumbents in Senate districts 5, 9, 37 and 45.

    The strange thing is that a lot of the Iowa Republican candidates in these battleground districts haven’t been raising a lot of money–at least they didn’t during the recent reporting period. The Iowa House Republican leadership isn’t keeping pace with 2008 fundraising levels either. I posted some theories about why this might be at Bleeding Heartland.

    Republican candidates will benefit from spending by several conservative groups like the Iowa Family Policy Center and Iowans for Tax Relief. However, the lobbying arm of the Iowa Association of Business and Industry endorsed a bunch of Democratic Iowa House and Senate incumbents the GOP has targeted.

  22. Whats going on there? Is Martinez’s effort to tie Denish to Richardson having an effect? We haven’t had a poll there since June 21. Rasmussen polls every state with competitive races twice a month, why not NM?  

  26. http://www.8newsnow.com/Global…

    Don’t think this has been mentioned yet.  Brian Sandoval is leading Rory Reid by a  52% to 36% margin.  The poll was conducted  by Mason-Dixon Research which is a reputable pollster that does live interviews.  This is after Sandoval allegedly made comments about his sons not looking Hispanic and thus not being subject to an Arizona style immigration law.  I thought the comments might have hurt Sandoval’s standing some.  This maybe shows that the comments weren’t a big deal.  Univision never released the tape of him saying it.  With it being a Republican favoring year, Sandoval  being Hispanic, and Reid seeming not to show much as a campaigner along with having to be on the ballot with his father, Sandoval should be favored to win.

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