DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Leads by 13, Carney by More

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (8/7-8, Delaware voters, no trend lines):

Chris Coons (D): 35

Mike Castle (R): 48

Undecided: 17

Chris Coons (D): 44

Christine O’Donnell (R): 37

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4%)

Continuing today’s stretch of deck-clearing posts, let’s prod the body bag of Daily Kos’ first horse race poll since cutting ties with the now-disgraced Research 2000.

The results are not awful for Chris Coons, who’s still unknown to 39% of the electorate — an indicative of both his room to grow and work that remains to be done (such as reversing the fact that Castle is picking up 30% of Democrats and 27% of liberals). It’s also worth noting that these numbers are pretty much right in line with Rasmussen’s latest.

John Carney (D): 48

Michele Rollins (R): 32

Undecided: 21

John Carney (D): 48

Glen Urquhart (R): 30

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4%)

Castle’s at-large House seat is still one of the few bright lights for Democrats this fall, despite the large amounts of coin Rollins and Urquhart, two Some Dude-level candidates in terms of name recognition, are dumping out of their piggy banks.

Transparency Bonus: Kudos to PPP for willingly sharing their raw data file (.CSV) — which is not something you usually see a pollster divulge. That raw data has already gone to use; just check out these cool visualizations made by Todd Stavish based on PPP’s data.

50 thoughts on “DE-Sen, DE-AL: Castle Leads by 13, Carney by More”

  1. Out of all the political signs I saw in New Castle and Kent County, Michelle Rollins had the most.

    I saw a Flowers sign as well; he’s a black Democrat running for the Democratic nomination for Treasurer.

  2. is killing me. For all we know O’Donnell could be within single digits of Castle and Democrats are writing this race off. It’s not probable, obviously, but still.

  3.    Having spent some time in Sussex County, Delaware, it would  not surprise me to see O’Donnell do very well there.  All the Republicans there were Teabaggers before the movement existed.  Not many people vote in Delaware Republican primaries.  I think O’Donnell has a chance.

  4. I’m not sure how conservative Delaware Republicans are, but there might be enough of a conservative bloc to put O’Donnell over the top. You wouldn’t think Maine Republicans would adopt a tea party platform, but they did, so I think anything can happen in states where Republicans are viewed as more moderate.

  5. Ever since he got into the race, I’ve felt that Chris Coons will win in November.  DE is one of the bluest states in the country.  Once the campaign season really starts, and he has Biden on the campaign trail with him, and talks about all of the party-line Republican votes Castle has made in the last two years, I really don’t see how liberal or moderate voters won’t move strongly in his direction.  Plus, he can make the case that a vote for Castle is a vote for returning Republicans to the majority in the Senate.  I think it’ll be a close race either way, but Democrats would be stupid to write this race off.

  6.   Delaware Republicans are some of the most liberal in the nation.  However, Kentucky Republicans are almost the most economically left-wing of any Republicans in the nation and they still nominated Rand Paul!

  7. Castle maintains solid, but not overwhelming lead, and will win (may be – by 5-7, but still win) if he is a nominee. O’Donnell will surely lose general, even though Coons is not so well known, but she has a chance to win low-turnout primary. Carney is much better knownthen his opponents, respected, and, in addition, there may be some remorse among voters: Governorship seemed “his” in 2008 before Markell outhustled him, so voters may be willing to “reward” him with another important post. If Rollins will be a nominee and will be willing to spent – the gap will narrow, but, except for “Republican wave”, Carney will still be favored  

  8. Christine O’Donnell has ZERO chance of winning the primary. Zilch. Nada. Zip. The Tea Party doesn’t make up a modest chunk, let alone a significant amount of the Delaware Republican Party. These are the only wackos who would pull the lever for her – the rank-and-file is 100% dead-set on Castle. This is a woman who garnered a whopping 17% in the ’06 GOP primary, and who only won the ’08 nod because she ran uncontested.

    I’ll be downright stunned if she breaks 25% in the primary.

  9. This is the way things look now to my amateur eyes.

    Republicans will flip ND, AR, DE, IN, and CO. Of those five

    races, the only race which I can see changing is CO.  If Bennett proves a good campaigner and if Buck fails at getting away with his McDonnell plot of hiding his extremism, then Bennett could win.  For DE and IN, Dem wins could be possible, but I don’t know exactly what Coons and Ellsworth have to do in order to win.  They better do it quickly.

    Dems will not flip any seat.  Right now, the most promising flip is NC.  But Marshall still has of yet to turn the polls in her favor.  At least she’s trending in the right direction.  Maybe Hodes in NH can pull it off; he needs to rise in the polls as well.  Carnahan and Fisher are sinking; they really need some help.  KY and LA are such red states that I’m skeptical of flipping either seat.

  10. Never forget how Biden came from WAY, WAY BACK, and late in the game at that, to win his first race.  It’s a small state, things can change quickly.

    If Coons runs a stellar campaign and Biden works it hard too, it could happen.  

  11. SCREW YOU JOE AND BEAU BIDEN! If Biden would have just let a replacement fill in for him in 08 we would not have to worry, but no he has to have a safety net. Any Dem would have won in 08, any. I guess he knew Beau could not take it, and that contributed. Now to Beau, the pompous asshole could not just take one for the team. He would have been very competitive and I think he could have won but no, he did not want to risk a loss. Screw them both if Joe runs in 2016 I will not support him in the primary. I don’t care if he already has the nomination in the bag I’ll still vote against him. Sorry I just had to get this off my chest.  

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