Major Pain Ahead for Dem House Incumbents: GOP Pollster

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R) for the American Action Fund (7/28-8/1, likely voters, MoE: ±4%):


Jim Himes (D-inc): 46

Dan Debicella (R): 42


Chris Murphy (D-inc): 49

Mark Greenberg (R): 39

One complication, though: Greenberg lost his primary to state Sen. Sam Caligiuri.


Suzanne Kosmas (D-inc): 41

Craig Miller (R): 44


Scott Murphy (D-inc): 45

Chris Gibson (R): 40


Bill Owens (D-inc): 41

Matt Doheny (R): 39


Dan Maffei (D-inc): 44

Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 41


Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 38

Mike Kelly (R): 52


Chris Carney (D-inc): 37

Tom Marino (R): 52


Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41

Lou Barletta (R): 52


Mark Critz (D-inc): 40

Tim Burns (R): 44


Tom Perriello (D-inc): 43

Rob Hurt (R): 49


Nick Rahall (D-inc): 53

“Spike” Maynard (R): 37

48 thoughts on “Major Pain Ahead for Dem House Incumbents: GOP Pollster”

  1. The one that surprises me the most here is CT-04; I hadn’t even considered that  as one to watch. Also, I highly doubt that the PA-03 and PA-08 numbers are accurate–if the Republicans are leading, it’s not by double digits. Everything else seems reasonable to me though.

  2. that I believing a GOP poll conducted for a PAC. Those Dahlkemper and Carney numbers in particular just seem absurd. Same with Mark Critz. And I’m pretty sure Doheny and Doug Hoffman will both be on the ballot in NY-23, which’ll give us a Maes-Tancredo sort of effect.

    Still, I’m really hoping that my post-Labor Day scenarios will come true, when Democrats begin to nuke the airwaves with their superior stockpile of cash. Democratic enthusiasm has a lot more potential to grow compared with the GOP; I think strongly countering Republicans’ demagougery and bullshit claims could give our side a significant boost. Remember, it’s not like Republicans are popular like Obama and Dems were pre-2009.

  3. what I call a major pain.  Even the GOP pollster is showing the Democrat ahead in several of those races, and comfortably so even in “red” districts like WV-03.  And Periello down by only 6 is much better than that SurveyUSA poll showing him losing by about 20 points.

    I’m not exactly buying their numbers for Pennsylvania.  The former “third Senator from Pennsylvania” will surely be doing some campaigning in that state, and given the margin Critz won by in the special election, and not having really done much in the House that’s considered “liberal”, I’m wary of those numbers too.

  4. Carney has WAY more cash than Marino and votes his district.  Marino will be swamped.

    Also, Critz will win again.  Somebody who lives in PA-12 who is a friend of mine says that a lot of people there think Burns is a “smacked ass” (their words, not mine) because he thought the special election would be a cake walk, nationalized the race, and made veiled insults at Murtha’s legacy.

    Finally, it’s nice to see Perriello down only 6 in this poll.  Hurt is ducking debates and the media is noticing.  He committed to, then withdrew from the traditional Candidate Forum, the first time a candidate has done that since ’96.… The reason why he won’t debate Perriello is supposedly because he doesn’t want the Indie candidate to be present.

  5. these numbers are accurate, and it is very questionable that they are, then we are SCREWED. I mean we will lose 50-60 seats if this is true. Thing is it is a GOP internal conducted for a pac. I’ll believe it when I see it.  

  6. Conservative activists touted them with all their muster and now leave them to wither.  I’m saying this because the two’s fundraising has been anemic and they’ve become afterthoughts.

  7. Another poll out recently had Dahlkemper slightly ahead.  I don’t believe the PA-10 numbers for a second.  Carney might lose, but he’s not losing now by that amount.  Others have pointed out the ridiculousness of PA-12.  FL-24 is actually good news.  The others are in the realm of possibility.

    I’d like to know their screen for likely voters.  Probably worse than Rasmussen’s.

  8. I didn’t really think these looked too bad to be honest.  Everything outside PA looks good really.  And we know that Republicans feel PA will be their lynchpin this November.

    PA is going to be tricky.  The GOP could win the governor’s race by 20 points or 8 points, it will just matter how the race closes.  The Sestak-Toomey race will be a nailbiter but it could swing back to Sestak post-Labor Day.

    The subsequent house races could be hurt by the top 2 races.  A 20 point win for Corbett in the Guv ravce could push Toomey across the finish line, and take down Critz, Kanjorski and Dahlkemper in the process.  

    Its very important the DGA keep the PA Guv race close to help Onorato but also Sestak and about 5 house candidates.

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