Tag: Ayres McHenry
100% Chance of Pain For House Democrats: GOP Pollster
The American Action Forum is back with a new batch of House polls. (They released their first dozen last week.) One major caveat, though: as pointed out in the comments section (!) of Hotline on Call, the ballot head-to-head questions in each poll were buried under several thermometer-style questions on Obama, Pelosi, and healthcare reform:
Those American Action Forum polls are designed to prime respondents into selecting Republican candidates. Instead of starting off with the ballot-test question, they start by asking if people think the country is on the right or wrong track, do they support/oppose health care reform, and their fav/unfav opinion of Obama & Pelosi (not Boehner and Bush, of course). Look, the Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats, and they will lose some of these seats in this poll, but the most credible way to conduct a general election poll is to start by asking who the respondent is voting for, because that is the one question that will actually be on a ballot. At least I give credit to these Republicans for showing the questions they asked.
That’s absolutely right. For any poll to maintain its credibility, the toplines need to be asked at the start (or at least, no later than right after the favorables, as PPP does it).
That said, we can still take a look at the toplines with a grain of salt.
Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R) for the American Action Forum (8/16-21, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):
IA-03:
Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 41
Brad Zaun (R): 51
IN-02:
Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 46
Jackie Walorski (R): 44
MI-07:
Mark Schauer (D-inc): 40
Tim Walberg (R): 50
MO-03:
Russ Carnahan (D-inc): 54
Ed Martin (R): 38
OH-01:
Steve Driehaus (D-inc): 45
Steve Chabot (R): 47
OH-13:
Betty Sutton (D-inc): 43
Tom Ganley (R): 41
OH-15:
Mary Jo Kilroy (D-inc): 44
Steve Stivers (R): 49
OH-16:
John Boccieri (D-inc): 35
Jim Renacci (R): 49
Note: Check out the downright geriatric sample for the OH-16 poll — 4% of the voters are between the ages of 18 and 34, 22% are between 35 and 49, and 74% are 50 and up. SUSA’s crosstabs from 2008 had a sample breakdown among those age brackets of 20-28-52. Other polls in this batch have similar shifts, but this one is the most glaring.
WI-08:
Steve Kagen (D-inc): 39
Reid Ribble (R): 49
Major Pain Ahead for Dem House Incumbents: GOP Pollster
Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R) for the American Action Fund (7/28-8/1, likely voters, MoE: ±4%):
CT-04:
Jim Himes (D-inc): 46
Dan Debicella (R): 42
CT-05:
Chris Murphy (D-inc): 49
Mark Greenberg (R): 39
One complication, though: Greenberg lost his primary to state Sen. Sam Caligiuri.
FL-24:
Suzanne Kosmas (D-inc): 41
Craig Miller (R): 44
NY-20:
Scott Murphy (D-inc): 45
Chris Gibson (R): 40
NY-23:
Bill Owens (D-inc): 41
Matt Doheny (R): 39
NY-25:
Dan Maffei (D-inc): 44
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 41
PA-03:
Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 38
Mike Kelly (R): 52
PA-10:
Chris Carney (D-inc): 37
Tom Marino (R): 52
PA-11:
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41
Lou Barletta (R): 52
PA-12:
Mark Critz (D-inc): 40
Tim Burns (R): 44
VA-05:
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 43
Rob Hurt (R): 49
WV-03:
Nick Rahall (D-inc): 53
“Spike” Maynard (R): 37