• ND-Sen: This may be the earliest the air wars have ever been launched, especially in a Senate race, but there’s already a major ad duel going on in the tiny (and dirt cheap) state of North Dakota, probably with an eye toward goading Kent Conrad into retirement (or backing him up so he doesn’t get any ideas). On the GOP side, mysterious Iowa-based IE group American Action Forum fired the first shots (worth only $60K), hitting Conrad over TARP and HCR; Dem group Commonsense Ten fired back (for $30K, all radio), defending his fiscal hawkishness. And now comes word that Conrad himself is also going to dip into his war chest starting next week, also hitting back against AAF. NWOTSOTB, but it’ll be a 60-second radio ad that runs all week. The bright side to the Conrad early alarm bells: that doesn’t seem like the action of a man contemplating retirement.
• KY-Gov: In Kentucky, incumbent Dem Gov. Steve Beshear just filed his papers for re-election, coming up in November. As expected, his running mate will be former Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson, rather than Dan Mongiardo. Beshear is sitting on $3.5 million for the race; while that’s a lot more than the $624K that the GOP David Williams/Richie Farmer ticket has, note that Williams only started raising in the last quarter of 2010 and pulled in $753K. Williams’ tea-flavored GOP primary rival, businessman Phil Moffett, has only an $8K balance after raising $20K last quarter but spending $30K. (UPDATE: Here’s one other breaking bit of news that’s an interesting consideration: GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson has sped up his getting-the-hell-out-of-Kentucky timeline, resigning shortly to take a job at Harvard’s Institute of Politics. That means Beshear gets to appoint a Dem to the SoS position, increasing the chances of holding the position in 2011. Beshear just announced that Bowling Green mayor Elaine Walker will get the position.)
• MT-Gov: Also on the financial front, ex-Rep. Rick Hill is in pole position among the various contestants for Montana’s open gubernatorial seat. He’s raised $103K so far (Montana, of course, is a small and cheap state), compared with fellow GOP rival Corey Stapleton’s $86K so far. The only Dem who has declared, state Sen. Dave Wanzenried, has raised a grand total of $2K, leaving me to wonder if insiders expect AG Steve Bullock to get in shortly. (Bullock has raised $73K, although that could be used for either a gube or AG bid.)
• GA-08: Add ex-Rep. Jim Marshall to the growing list of Dems interested in trying to fight their way back into the House two years from now, saying he’s not sure but “won’t preclude” another run. With the GOP controlling redistricting in Georgia, though, Marshall might find himself with an even-more-unfriendly 8th in 2012.
• OH-06: And here’s one more to add: Charlie Wilson says “I would like to run again,” but with one big caveat: that there’s a district drawn that’s “somehow fair” for him. The GOP also controls the process in Ohio but will probably also need to chop at least one GOP-held seat, which may well come out of the state’s depopulated southeast quadrant. A mashup of the swingy 6th and the more-reddish 18th would be less favorable to Wilson than the seat he just lost.
• California: Finally, here’s another interesting data dump from Greg Giroux, looking at how California’s gubernatorial and Senate races from 2010 broke down according to congressional district. If you’re looking for an indication of how polarized (and/or expertly gerrymandered for incumbent protection) California’s districts are, there was almost no deviation between how the House races broke and the statewide races broke. The only deviations: Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina both won in Jerry McNerney’s CA-11, while Jerry Brown eked it out in Dan Lungren’s CA-03.