AR-01: Crawford Crushes Causey in New Poll

Talk Business Research/Hendrix College for Talk Business (8/17, likely voters, no trend lines):

Chad Causey (D): 32

Rick Crawford (R): 48

Ken Adler (G): 4

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Ouch; what a brutal starting position for Chad Causey. Crawford, the beneficiary of a slam-dunk primary win, has an eye-popping 43-13 favorable rating, a much higher mark than the battle-scarred Causey’s 29-26. Each man is unknown to nearly half of the electorate, so there is still quite a bit of room for this race to evolve, but shifting it back away from the GOP will be a tough task. For his part, Causey will have to hope that Crawford’s past bankruptcy troubles become a bigger deal than that issue is today.

Note that this sample has a sample composition of 33% Republican and 31% Democratic — probably a more GOP-friendly sample than we’d be used to seeing from this ancestrally Democratic district, but maybe indicative of the folks who will actually be showing up to the polls this November.

UPDATE: The Causey campaign has responded by releasing their own internal poll (available below the fold) by Garin Hart Yang (8/16-18) showing the race at a much closer margin of 41-40 for Crawford. Details below.

38 thoughts on “AR-01: Crawford Crushes Causey in New Poll”

  2. This is a Lean R race.  One poll is Crawford +16, the other is Crawford +1 (internal).  That averages out to Crawford +8 or +9, maybe even +10 if you give a bit of a house effect to the democratic internal.  

    With the republicans cruising on the generic ballot throughout the southeast, I would expect many more polls like this to come out in house districts throughout the region over the next month.  

  3. Anyway, as I said in the other thread, I won’t be the least bit surprised if republicans win this seat.  It’s # 17 on my list of most likely Dem to Rep switches.

  4. if the best your campaign can do is still showing you down by 1, then that isn’t a big vote of confidence.  However, those approval ratings are something to focus on and knowing that Causey will be airing many a negative ad, I’m sure those numbers will look less Jesus-like by EDay.

    Still some room for optimism, but I think we’ll lose it.  And I’ve already stopped caring about it; there are many other seats Id rather focus my life towards and give a damn about.

    2Q Fundraising numbers

    Causey 412k raised, 91k CoH (primary)

    Crawford 126k raised, 214k CoH

    If Causey can keep that pattern up, he’d bury him.

  5. I like Causey. He is young and I thought he had a good career ahead of him. Dems seem to be a dying breed in Arkansas. I wonder how Pryor will do in 2014. It is possible that in 2015 he have no dems in federal office at all in Arkansas if Ross runs for Governor in 2014.  

  6. Vermont had been a Republican bastion since the days of Lincoln, and even voted against FDR four times. It became a much more liberal place, but held onto its Republican tradition at both the state and federal levels even as the rest of New England shifted to the Democrats. Eventually, however, Vermonters realized that they were better off voting for the party that matched their political views than voting for the party their family had supported for generations, and now it is one of the most Democratic places in the country.

    Arkansas remains true blue at all but the presidential level, but you have to wonder how long it will be before they undergo the same change as Vermont.

  7. Especially since neither candidate has a lot of name ID. This is where most of the states Democrats are, so Causey will get more than 32%. This would be a big marginal for Republicans if they did win it.

  8. I doubt there are 33% of the population in AR-1 who EVEN NOW would ID as Republican. Not to mention that the 31% D ID seems extremely low considering how strongly people have clung to the D label in AR-1 by sending, almost exclusively, conservative Democrats to the State Legislature. If this turns out to be reflective of how people are IDing, than the shift is seismic and should be an academic study (seriously).  

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