Another week, another edition of StephenCLE’s Senate predictions:
With the generic ballot going to crap within the past few weeks and the democrats being locked in a situation where their voters are simply not engaged at all, the republicans have advanced here quite a bit. In my last update, I had the Republicans picking up only 2.5 seats. Now that number has ballooned to 5.5. Still, I think it’s more likely for the Democrats to get out of November with only a nominal loss in the Senate than it is in the House. Campaigns will be critical here since the candidates are generally well known in the Senate, and there will probably be more thought put into votes as opposed to the House, where in the absence of any real knowledge of the candidates, many angry voters will reflexively pull the Republican lever.
Before the rankings, a new feature. The map please:
Senate Math:
Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans
New Senate – 53 Democrats, 46 Republicans, 1 Charlie Crist
Swing – Republicans +5.5
Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)
Dem pickups – none
Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Colorado
Ind pickups – Florida
August Ratings Changes:
1.Missouri – Toss Up to Lean Rep – There is little doubt in my mind that Robin Carnahan would win this race in a normal year, but thanks to the national mood, and Barack Obama’s horrific approval numbers in Missouri, she’s fallen behind Roy Blunt by 5-7 points, which is just enough to move the race to Lean R for the time being. I don’t think this race is out of reach by any means however. Carnahan will really have to work hard for it though.
2.Nevada – Lean Dem to Toss Up – Polls are starting to show Sharron Angle creeping back into it a little bit, but she’s still trailing by 2-4 in most polls. That’s close enough for me to put the race back into Toss Up status. Really, if he wasn’t so unpopular Reid would probably be running away with this. The thing that’s saving him is that all those democrats that were probably going to vote against him just to get a new “better” majority leader, their plans were ki-boshed because no upstanding democrat could ever allow a nut like Angle into the Senate like that.
3.Kentucky – Lean Rep to Toss Up – Kentucky is the one race that has moved in the democratic direction this month, and it’s mostly because of Rand Paul’s ridiculous stand on drugs that turned law enforcement officials of all stripes against him. It is downright incredible to me that we could be looking at a democratic pickup in Kentucky in a year like this, but it’s very possible. Polls are virtually a dead heat.
4.Ohio – Toss Up/Dem Pickup to Toss Up/Rep Retention – I’m being a bit cautious on this race. Portman has gone up with a few ads but hasn’t really stormed the airwaves yet, which I’m somewhat surprised about given his cash advantage. Ipsos and Rassmussen have him winning, most others still have Fisher ahead but by less % than the Portman leads. With other states moving rightward, this move is more a result of the generic ballot than any individual polls. This is still a very tight race, and the closer we get to election day without Portman going on the air in full, the less imposing his cash-on-hand advantage becomes.
5.Pennsylvania – Toss Up/Dem Retention to Toss Up/Rep Pickup – Republicans are doing pretty well across the board in Pennsylvania right now, but I balk to pull this race out of toss up because of a few key factors. First off, Toomey is on the air, and is trying to re-define himself, while Sestak is sitting back, content to repeat his strategy of blanketing the airwaves late and sprinting to victory that worked so brilliantly against Arlen Specter. Secondly, this is a democratic state as a whole, so if there was one state in the country where a surprise turnout by “unlikely” democratic voters could swing an election, this is it. Toomey’s at his peak right now, it’s all downhill from here. The challenge for him will be to withstand Sestak’s onslaught when it inevitably does come.
6.Arizona – Likely Rep to Solid Rep – With it looking very unlikely that JD Hayworth will upset John McCain in the republican primary, and with Rodney Glassman’s campaign taking on water in recent days, I put this one in the Safe R column.
2010 Senate Big Board (as of August update)
Solid Dem – 6 seats
New York (Schumer)
Vermont (Leahy)
Maryland (Mikulski)
Oregon (Wyden)
Hawaii (Inouye)
New York (Gillibrand)
Likely Dem – 2 seats
Connecticut (Blumenthal)
West Virginia (Open)
Lean Dem – 3 seats
California (Boxer)
Washington (Murray)
Wisconsin (Feingold)
Lean Ind – 1 seat
Florida (Open)
Toss Up – 6 seats
Kentucky (Open)
Nevada (Reid)
Ohio (Open)
Colorado (Open)
Illinois (Open)
Pennsylvania (Open)
Lean Rep – 4 seats
Missouri (Open)
North Carolina (Burr)
Indiana (Open)
New Hampshire (Open)
Likely Rep – 5 seats
Georgia (Isakson)
Delaware (Open)
Arkansas (Lincoln)
Iowa (Grassley)
Louisiana (Vitter)
Solid Rep – 10 seats
Arizona (McCain)
South Carolina (Demint)
Alabama (Shelby)
North Dakota (Open)
South Dakota (Thune)
Kansas (Open)
Oklahoma (Coburn)
Utah (Open)
Idaho (Crapo)
Alaska (Murkowski)
Mason-Dixon had one outlier that showed Reid up 44-37, and since has had Reid up 43-42 and then 46-44. If anything, he’s inching up and expanded his lead by a point, although more realistically it’s just statistical noise. Un-credible Rasmussen is the only other outfit to show any improvement for Angle between polls.
The polling has been very consistent, Reid still leads in everyone’s numbers except Ras.
I can see having had the rating a tossup in the first place since it’s close enough to say that; Reid leads by 4 in his best numbers by Ipsos, and tops out at 48 per Ipsos and PPP. But if one called it lean D a month ago, then it’s still lean D now, as nothing has changed.
I otherwise agree with your overall picture, and your bottom-lines. The economy freezing really hurts us, even against Paul and Buck. Angle actually has an improved prospect herself because of it, but she’s been so thoroughly defined, and Reid just keeps going building on it, that I think Reid has established a bulwark there.
Agreed with your rankings for the most part. I think we’re looking at a net four Republican gain at the moment.
The way I see it, ND and AR are gone. IN and DE are probably gone. PA is a tossup, but leans Republican.
Beyond that, CO, NV, IL, WI and WA are all tossups that tilt Dem, but a strong Republican tide would probably throw 1-2 of them to the Republicans.
I’m a little more optimistic about Colorado than PA. It’ll be tight, and Buck certainly could win, but Colorado as a whole looks better for Dems than PA, and the GOP implosion in the governor’s race should benefit Bennet.
In terms of pickups, I think Crist has a good chance of picking up FL and is probably favored right now. (And it seems fairly clear he would caucus with Democrats.)
Other pickups? Conway, as you said, has a very good shot, although Paul is probably still narrowly favored. Carnahan should close the gap some, but I think it’ll take an improvement in the national climate for her to win, or else macro factors will overwhelm her. What I’ve said elsewhere about this race is this: I can see how Carnahan gets within 2 points – it’s getting over that that’s tough. And while I can see Crist or Conway – or even both! – winning even in the midst of a Republican wave, it’s harder to see Carnahan doing the same.
So what I see is:
Republican pickups: ND, AR, IN, DE, PA
Independent/Dem* pickups: FL
Net change: R+4
I forgot all about the Senate special in West Virginia, which I did not have a rating for last month.
That race starts at Likely Democrat, thanks to Manchin’s heavy popularity and strong polling in the face of a poor environment and a rightward-moving electorate in WV.
Senate race poll that showed Fisher ahead should be discredited. It said that an Obama +6 electorate would turn out in an Obama +5 state. Portman is up by 4-5. (Rasmussen)
ND and AR are gone. I want to be optimistic about both IN and DE, but in this climate they’ll probably both go Republican. (If either race surprises, it’ll probably be Delaware – I think it’ll be a lot closer than the pundits say it will; it’s a fairly Democratic state, and small enough that Coons doesn’t have to do as much to campaign as he otherwise would, and Castle is, well, old and tired, despite his popularity, and it’s an open secret that he’s only running for Senate so that John Cornyn would stop calling him.) I live in Indiana, so I want to believe that Ellsworth is more competitive than polls show (and I have seen, like, 3 Ellsworth bumper stickers around Indianapolis in the last month but absolutely zero bumper stickers for Coats), but he really hasn’t done a great job reaching out to urban voters, and he needs us to win.
I had some hope for Ohio and Missouri earlier in the cycle, but it’s waning now. Kentucky and Nevada are going to be decided by less than 1,000 votes each. I wouldn’t totally write off New Hampshire yet, which is a notoriously difficult state to poll, and where Ayotte has had her audit scandal – in a small state that treats politics like a religion and is unusually well informed about these things (though they still vote badly in spite of that about half the time).
Giannoulias will hold Illinois by a much more comfortable margin than was initially thought, even as Quinn goes down in flames. Colorado’s a good question just because Bennet was such a stupid pick for the job in the first place, but Hick at the top of the ticket and the Maes/Tancredo crazyfest should help. CT will be closer than it should be, just because Blumenthal has a glass jaw, but is still a hold. CA, WA, and WI are Dem holds regardless of what Rasmussen wants us to believe – you cannot make me, as a former resident of the Northwest, believe that Dino Rossi can win a statewide race in Washington, even in a bad year.
PA is a great big question mark. Sestak has the profile to win, but he needs to define Toomey as Santorum 2.0 and he’s not doing it. The late ad blitz strategy is a big gamble, and I hope it works.
I don’t want to write off NC because Burr is a complete trainwreck of an incumbent and even his own constituents think so, but it’s not as though Marshall has run much of a campaign, either, and Obama’s numbers here are pretty fugly. If there ended up being one grassroots race that wasn’t on the radar at all but still resulted in a “surprise” upset, though, it’d be this one.
I don’t think Crist is inevitable quite yet, especially now that Meek looks like he’ll win the primary. If Republicans coalese behind Rubio and liberals/independents are split chiefly between Meek and Crist, Rubio has the advantage. I kinda wish Scott hadn’t imploded so quickly, so Dems could justify ditching their own nominee. Of course, Crist also hasn’t fully renounced being a Republican the way that Lincoln Chaffee has, so who knows who he’d caucus with in reality. Everybody’s assumed he’s a Dem in drag, but he’s never actually said as much, and that will hurt him if he doesn’t define himself soon.
did you use a specific program for the website? Do you have one for your House ratings?