Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters, 7/16-18 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (17)
Marco Rubio (R): 40 (29)
Charlie Crist (I): 32 (35)
Alex Snitker (L): 3 (4)
Undecided: 8 (15)Jeff Greene (D): 13 (13)
Marco Rubio (R): 37 (29)
Charlie Crist (I): 36 (38)
Alex Snitker (L): 4 (3)
Undecided: 10 (16)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
PPP’s newest look at the Florida Senate race is a complete turnaround from one month ago. Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio aren’t that differently situated, in terms of their popularity: Crist’s approval is 42/44, while Rubio is at 40/37. However, a few things have changed that have caused their positions to dramatically flip since a month ago, though: the Republicans are even more tightly united around Rubio, taking moderate GOPers away from Crist. Also, the share of unaffiliateds (theoretically Crist’s strongest constituency, since he’s one of them now) has dropped since July, from 20% to only 14% of the sample.
It’s a sample that went for John McCain over Barack Obama 48-45 in 2008 (instead of the actual Obama 51-48), and the Republican part of the sample may be even more extra-conservative than usual (remember that PPP was the only pollster yesterday to give Rick Scott, who seems to be the “conservative” candidate in the Gov primary, a lead). While I agree with PPP (and pretty much everyone else) that Crist’s chances improve significantly with Jeff Greene as the Dem nominee rather than Kendrick Meek, it’s interesting to note that Meek hasn’t really increased his share in the general… the flip between Rubio and Crist seems based partly on composition differences between the two samples, and, even more notably, on undecideds moving to Rubio.
Crist’s gutsy stance on the “mosque” business may have cost him in this poll. And, as I said in the other thread, we’ll see how good PPP’s numbers are in Florida after tonight.
Than PPP and Mason-Dixon. Even if Rubio is leading, there is no way he has 40% of the vote right now.
But I really do think Meek will struggle to get into the conversation after today. He will have no money and likely the main reason Crist has lost his lead is because all the attention has been on the Democratic primary. Advantage back to Rubio for now but this has been such a topsy turvy race it probably has several more twists yet.
we need is for more dems to get behind Crist. We need party officials telling people how Crist is their best alternative. Crist needs to make it clear that voting for Meek is the same as voting for Rubio. Rubio is doing well now because Meek is getting more dem support. Let’s see what happens after the primary.
Alan Schlesinger even got 10% of the vote as GOP canidate in CT in 2006.
No way a sitting US Congressman with establishment Dem support does worst than that.
If Rubio can consolidate the GOP vote and polls over 40% he wins.
Crist has to walk a tightrope. He needs to hold some GOP votes while getting Dems to crossover.
If Crist moves right it opens up a path for Meeks to win by splitting the vote on the right allowing a liberal/progressive vote a path to vicotry. If he tries to co-op Meeks it splits the Dem vote and pushes the GOP vote to Rubio.
If Rubio is hitting 40% in polls it means Crist is losing his GOP support.
If you were to ask me which party would win their perspective elections in Florida between the senate and the governors mansion a year ago, I would have said dem-Sen, GOP-Gov. Now it has flipped.
This is some pathetic stuff, but I guess the governors mansion is more important in terms of redistricting, which Florida has been gerrymandered to such a degree it is only bested by Texas. Being that this is a swing state, we have a lot of seats to Gain in 2012 if Sink wins in November.
A little later than expected but this was the status quo wisdom. That eventually Rubio would pull ahead while Meek and Crist would eat into each others support. I wonder if Meek will get any kind of post-primary bounce he can build off. If he were to all those voters would be coming from Crist.
The Democratic leadership cannot throw Meek under the bus unless Obama personally gets involved and does it. That would be a highly risky move and unlikely to happen as it would further consolidate Republican support around Rubio.