SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Afternoon Edition)

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: ColoradoPols has an interesting question up at their site: who’s crazier, the Republicans’ candidate in the Senate race or the Governor’s race? (In fact, that’s a good question for the comments here… not just Colorado, but for a whole number of other states too.) The DSCC would like the answer to be “Ken Buck,” the whole Dan Maes UN-bicycle-plot thing notwithstanding: they’re out with a new ad working the Paul/Angle-style “too extreme” angle, here focusing on Buck’s support for eliminating the 17th amendment.

• PA-Sen: This is going to be a hard one for Pat Toomey to explain without some high-impact semantic gymnastics. At the Pennsylvania Press Club yesterday, Toomey said “I’ve never said I favor privatizing Social Security.” The DSCC promptly rolled out 36 different newspaper articles in which Toomey favored privatizing Social Security. We Ask America did offer some sustenance for Toomey, though: they find him leading Joe Sestak 48-35.

• FL-Gov: Here’s a bad sign for the Republican Party of Florida (aka RPOF, pronounced “rip-off”), who poured a lot of money into carrying Bill McCollum across the finish line in the primary and will have to keep propping him up for November. They’re down to $54K in their federal campaign finance account (after plowing much of their holdings into outside committees backing McCollum). Maybe they’d been counting on a reimbursement check from disgraced former state party chair Jim Greer to help fill their coffers a bit, but here’s the ultimate ignominy: Greer’s $7K check to reimburse the party for overcharges bounced.

• LA-03: Politico has a preview of the Republican primary in the open seat 3rd (which will be decided this Saturday, don’t forget). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty universally considered frontrunner, but he faces a double-teabagging from attorney Jeff Landry and engineer Kristian Magar, who are pointing to his decades as a Democrat, and his snubbing of Tea Party events. Downer’s fate could rest on whether he clears the 50% mark and avoids a runoff, as he could face more trouble against just one opponent.

• MI-01, MI-07: It looks like the Tea Party won’t be getting a ballot line in Michigan, after a 2-2 decision by the state’s Board of Canvassers. (The tie means they’re kept off the ballot.) Republicans brought the challenge pointing to possible Democratic involvement in getting the Tea Party on the ballot (to the extent that a member of the Oakland County Dem leadership helped them). This probably has the greatest impact in the competitive races in the 1st and 7th, where the Tea Party had had candidates ready to go (Lonnie Lee Snyder and Danny Davis, respectively), presumably who would eat into the GOP’s vote share.

• NJ-06: Who knew that when Facebook was created that it’d become a preferred venue for leaking internal polls? Anna Little, the surprise victor in the NJ-06 GOP primary, is now touting a poll from National Research showing her trailing Rep. Frank Pallone 40-34.

• OR-05: One other GOP internal poll kicking around today: state Rep. Scott Bruun, is out with a poll via local Republican pollster Bob Moore giving him a 41-38 lead over freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader.

• Ads: The big ad of the day may be Harry Reid’s newest attack on Sharron Angle in NV-Sen, using her own words to seize on her claims that the state aid package was “money laundering.” Ted Strickland in OH-Gov is also out with a new ad, hitting John Kasich again on his ties to Lehman Brothers. Two House members facing credible challenges this year are also out with their first ads of the season: Republican Lee Terry in NE-02, focusing on his hatred of pork, and Democrat Martin Heinrich in NM-01, focusing on his constituent services.

• Outside Money: The Washington Post has a fantastic new little tool, in the form of a sortable chart that keeps track of outside expenditures by unions, Republican front groups, assorted weirdos, and all other manner of interest groups outside the two parties. Fun fact: did you know that Robert Kirkland (who spent $2.1 million) is #5 overall in total IEs for 2010 (on behalf of his brother Ron’s losing GOP primary run in TN-08), more than the Club for Growth, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or even the DSCC?

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 46%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 40%, Roy Blunt (R) 51%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%

46 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. from the upcoming Louisiana Senate poll from PPP.

    By a 21/44 spread Vitter is not a good model of Christian living

    By a 32/22 spread Melancon is a better representative of Christian values

    By a 24/17 margin, voters would rather have their daughter marry Melancon

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

    The real topline numbers out tomorrow.

  2. is cool, but caution must be exercised. They rate Americans for Job Security as only 60% GOP by partisanship, but only because they gave both for Ken Buck and against Jane Norton in Colorado. They really should be rated 100% GOP

  3. That line of attack would be brutal in almost every race across the country. But it probably loses some luster in Colorado because Bennet was appointed.

  5. I think that race provides the excitement on Saturday night. The WV-Sen primaries are pretty boring, LA-02 will not be as close I think, and the Sen primaries are also boring.  

  7. Wow that’s impressive for the DSCC to dig that up. Good for them. Yeah it will be hard to walk back on that with all that evidence.

    BTW who the fuck is We Ask America and why are giving this GOP polling company credibility here lately? It’s a honest question.

    Also OR-Gov. Rasmussen gave Dudley a 1 point lead. I forget since it’s been a while but it was a main diary what was the other poll SSP discussed that gave Dudley the lead and by how much?

  8. point this was covered … but …

    Sean Swain is running for Governor of Ohio as a third party candidate under the “Zapatisa Party”

    We don’t need government. What has it done for you? It takes your money and bosses you around and then hands the cash it stole from you to the greedy bastards who force you to drag stones up the side of their pyramid for 16 hours a day or else go hungry. What a fuckin’ dream.

    Democracy isn’t shit, I know. You choose your own slavemaster. Not cool. But just imagine if you could turn your ballot into a bullet and blow the government’s brains out, once and for all. Imagine if all the down-sized and out-sourced and fed-up and walked-on from all over the country-everybody tired of taking shit-all got together in one place at one time and hijacked one election…

    http://www.seanswain.org/

    More seriously, I found that because PPP is asking for questions about Ohio & North Carolina where they will poll this weekend.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

  11. Yes, it’s from Rasmussen, but their numbers less outlier-ish these days. With leaners, they have it 54-41 Blunt.

    It does seem a tad high. I would have thought Robin’s ad blitz would have knocked off a few points from Blunt. Bah.

    Of course, the other issue Rasmussen has is that this – like many of their polls – are ridiculous one-day polls that are of somewhat dubious reliability. This was probably an especially poor sample. I don’t doubt that Blunt is ahead, but 13 points seems a tad much. 5-7, sure. 13?

  13. Cannot we just have some honest candidates on both sides who admit the program is in trouble and that both sides are going to have accept some things they fundamentally oppose if its going to be fixed?  

    The Meehan/Lentz debate from the weekend is a great example of both sides being idiots on this issue. I wanted to smack them both as they came off as panders to the geriatric tyranny.  I am just sick of hearing how we cannot cut benefits or raise taxes to pay for them.  I wish there was a Republican or Democrat that admitted that benefits will be cut and taxes will likely have to be raised even if benefits are cut.

  14. polls to report:

    CO-03

    Tipton 49% (R)

    Salazar 43% (D)

    http://www.gjsentinel.com/news…

    Democrats bracing for ABQ poll:

    A recent SurveyUSA poll shocked the political community when it showed the unknown Barela leading Heinrich 51% to 45%. Heinrich’s own polling does not show such a tight race. The Journal poll to come next week will influence the contest. In the unlikely event Barela is ahead, it will rattle the Dems cage mightily and might force open the cash drawers for Barela.

    Assessing what people who have had access to Barela’s internal polling are telling us, it is more likely that the race will show a several point gap and probably in Heinrich’s favor. The congressman remains the favorite but with pressure to run a top-notch campaign that was simply not present there three months ago.

    http://joemonahansnewmexico.bl…

  15. If money were spent in the right place I know how we could get rid of John Boehner.  But let me say first of all that despite the Dems of that district getting a strong candidate, a retired army captain that would play well in those parts, there is little chance of a Dem getting elected in a straight fight.  But as luck would have it there is a conservative loon in the fray who, if supported, could suck away a lot of votes from Boehner.  Not all voters are happy with a man who polished the shoes of the hedge fund managers in a secret meeting.  Nor are they happy with his other dealings with special interests. Boehner is also on the outs with some of the tea baggers too.  The vote in this district could be split.  If you want to give this clown fits then send your money to the other dog in the manger.

    http://www.jimconditjr2010.com/

    If this guy got ten percent of the vote I think John Boehner would be yesterday’s cold hash.

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