Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now (8/10-17, likely voters, 4/23-28 in parens):
Neil Abercrombie (D): 49 (36)
Mufi Hannemann (D): 44 (32)
Undecided: 8 (21)
(MoE: ±4.8%)
Neil Abercrombie (D): 53 (49)
Duke Aiona (R): 41 (35)
Undecided: 6 (16)Mufi Hannemann (D): 54 (48)
Duke Aiona (R): 37 (35)
Undecided: 9 (17)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
This one’s been sitting on our shelf for a couple of days, so now’s a good time to clear the decks before it starts to collect dust. Note that Ward Research has shifted away from their unusual approach in sampling that they deployed back in May and gone for a more conventional sample.
Favorable ratings for all three of these guys are pretty even: Aiona’s at 57-31, Abercrombie’s at 57-36, and Hannemann’s at 55-38. In the general election, both Democrats lose independents to Aiona by varying degrees (Abercrombie by 41-49 and Hannemann by 32-52) and aren’t holding onto Democrats very strongly (Hannemann leads among Dems by 72-21 and Abercrombie leads by 71-24). The problem remains, though, that there are just way more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii. Aiona has a shot, but he’ll probably need the Democratic primary to get a bit nastier first.
Abercrombie, not case in the 2nd line of the 2nd paragraph. Is Aiona socially moderate or conservative? I wonder if he could peel off socially liberal independents and Dems against Hanneman?
Reminding, noticing new polls, Ipsos: Buck +9, SurveyUSA: Herrera +13 in WA-3, Internal GOP Poll, Hinchey only leads 44-37 in NY-22, GOP leads by 2 on generic ballot in D+6 district, big turnaround from previous internal.
find these internals bizarre? for instance Abercrombie wins 56% from each income group and for the topline that comes out to…53%. uh, what. I know crosstabs are untrustworthy blah blah blah but don’t they at least have to make mathematical sense?