Sometimes it’s not the races you lose, but the races you don’t win. Republicans currently hold a 76-44 advantage in the Florida State House, just 4 seats from a 2/3, veto-overridin’ majority, which could be important with the now distinct possibility of Governor Alex Sink (knock on wood).
This could have, would have, and should have been the year that Democrats finally made up some of that big gap in the State House. Due to term limits, Republicans have tons of open seats to defend, several of which are in vulnerable districts. But alas, the poisonous environment of 2010 will probably prevent a Democratic resurgence in the chamber. In fact, I predict no Dem pickups and two Republican pickups, leaving the chamber 78-42 Republican.
My expectation is that what Florida Democrats were once hoping would be an opportunity for a big gain will end up a stalemate or worse. It’s like a baseball team losing after leaving 20 runners on base, for those of you who love sports metaphors. In any event, here is the rundown:
DEMOCRATIC TARGETS
LEANS REPUBLICAN
HD-26 – OPEN (Patterson) – This is a dead even district, with maybe a slight Republican tilt, in Volusia and Flagler counties, stretching from the north central Atlantic coast inland to the Deland area. Term-limited incumbent Pat Patterson faced only semi-competitive races for re-election. The Democrat is Volusia County Deputy Superintendent of Schools Michael Huth. The Republican is Ormond Beach mayor Fred Costello. Huth has raised $92K to Costello’s $154K. Given the environment, the financial edge, and Costello’s higher profile as mayor of a significant city, Costello gets the edge.
HD-57 – OPEN (Culp) – This is a slightly Republican-leaning district in the Tampa area. Term-limited incumbent Faye Culp faced only semi-competitive races for re-election. The race is a battle between two attorneys: Democrat Stacy Frank and Republican Dana Young. Frank has raised $197K to Young’s $286K. Tea Party candidate Matthew Russell may take votes from Young. Nevertheless, Young has the edge between two strong candidates in this Republican-leaning district.
HD-83 – OPEN (Domino) – This is a dead even district taking in coastal and northern Palm Beach County. Term-limited incumbent Carl Domino has faced very tight re-election battles over the past two cycles. The Democrat is optometrist Mark Marciano. The Republican is businessman Pat Rooney, the brother of Congressman Tom Rooney and a member of the Rooney family of Steelers football fame. Marciano has raised a respectable $115K to Rooney’s $154K. Given Rooney’s financial edge, name recognition, and the environment, the edge goes to Rooney.
HD-87 – OPEN (Hasner) – This is a dead even district, but trending blue, along the coast in Southern Palm Beach County. Term-limited incumbent Adam Hasner has won re-election by impressive double-digit margins in spite of the tough district. The Democrat is Assistant State Attorney Hava Holzhauer. The Republican is Boca Raton City Council Member Bill Hager. Holzhauer has raised $80K to Hager’s $158K. With Hager’s financial advantage and higher profile, I expect him to win.
HD-91 – OPEN (Bogdanoff) – This is a slightly Republican district that runs along the cost of Broward County. Incumbent Ellyn Bogdanoff was elected in 2004, had a semi-competitive race in 2006, and coasted to re-election in 2008. She is vacating the seat to run for State Senate. This is another battle between two attorneys: Democrat Barbra Stern and Republican George Moraitis. Stern has raised $81K to Moraitis’s $114K. Tea Party candidate John Perez could siphon votes away from Moraitis. Nevertheless, the edge goes to Moraitis in a tough environment for Democrats.
HD-119 – OPEN (Zapata) – This is a majority Hispanic district in western Miami-Dade County, which is trending blue but has historically elected Republicans. Term-limited incumbent Juan Zapata is quite popular in the district, and never faced a competitive re-election campaign. The Democrat is Dade County Farm Bureau Executive Director Katie Edwards. The Republican is insurance professional Frank Artiles, who has received much of his financial backing from the insurance industry. Edwards has raised $190K to $154 for Artiles. There are two third party candidates. Nestor Iglesias is the obligatory Tea Party spoiler for Artiles, and Graziella Denny is an Indy candidate about whom I have been unable to find any substantive information. This could be an interesting race, but the national environment and the district’s voting history suggest that Artiles is the favorite.
REPUBLICAN TARGETS
LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER
HD-11 – Boyd – This is a heavily Republican district in rural North Central Florida. “Blue Dog” style incumbent Debbie Boyd won the district by 0.2% in a 2008 open seat contest over former Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter. Porter is back for a second run. Boyd has raised $152K to Porter’s $30K, and so she has a strong financial advantage. She will need every penny. I expect the electoral environment in this part of Florida to turn against Boyd emphatically, with Porter winning comfortably. However, Tea Party candidate John Ferentinos may keep Boyd in the game.
TOSS-UP/TILTS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER
HD-81 – Fetterman – This is a dead even district in the Port St. Lucie area, which is trending blue. Incumbent Adam Fetterman won a 2008 open seat race by 5%. This time around, he faces Gayle Harrell, who represented the district in the State House from 2001 to 2009. Harrell won by large margins in the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections, but faced a more competitive, 10 point race in 2008. Fetterman has raised $168K to Harrell’s $171K. In this environment, Harrell has a small edge in a race that is otherwise almost completely even in every respect.
LEANS DEMOCRATIC
HD-09 – Rehwinkel-Vasilinda – This is a solidly Democratic district in Tallahassee and the surrounding areas. Incumbent Michelle Rehwinkel-Vasilinda narrowly defeated African-American Florida State University football star Peter Boulware in an open seat contest in 2008. Her opponent this time around is social worker Kirk Headley-Perdue, who in spite of her first name is a woman. Rehwinkel-Vasilinda has raised $137K to Headley-Perdue’s $95K. Rehwinkel-Vasilinda should hold on in this blue district against an opponent who lacks the unique local appeal of Boulware.
HD-51 – Long – This is a dead even district in southwestern Pinellas County. Incumbent Janet Long won this seat in 2006 by less than 1%, and was re-elected in 2008 by a more comfortable 16%. Her opponent is businessman Larry Ahern. Long has raised $160K to Ahern’s $44K. A purported March poll of the district, the details of which were not released, claimed a 7-point lead for Long. Tea Party candidate Victoria Torres should only help Long to hold the seat. Long should have an edge here, and it actually would not surprise me if the mystery poll turned out to be accurate.
HD-52 – Heller – This is a slightly Democratic district in the St. Petersburg area. Incumbent Bill Heller won the seat in 2006 by 8%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 20%. His opponent is businessman Jeff Brandes. Heller has raised $89K to $134K for Brandes. Heller is an institution in the area, and he should win despite a strong effort from Brandes.
HD-69 – Fitzgerald – This is a dead even district based in Sarasota. Fitzgerald was elected in 2006 by 2% and re-elected by only 4% in 2008. His opponent is former Sarasota County Commissioner Ray Pilon, who has lost two races for Sarasota County Sheriff since leaving the County Commission. Fitzgerald has raised $156K to Pilon’s $73K. This could be a tough race, but Fitzgerald should hold on given his financial advantage. He is used to being targeted, and Pilon is not the toughest candidate he has faced.
HD-107 – Garcia – This is a majority Hispanic, Miami area district, which is historically Republican but trending Democratic. Incumbent Luis Garcia was elected to the seat in 2006 by 4%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 10%. His opponent is Gustavo Barreiro, who represented the district in the State House from 1999 through 2007. Mr. Barreiro was very popular while in office, coasting to re-election term after term. However, after leaving office, he was fired from his job at the Department of Juvenile Justice when pornographic images were allegedly found on his computer. Garcia has raised $122K to Barreiro’s $46K. While I would not necessarily consider Barreiro’s porn problem disqualifying, Garcia has a distinct edge in light of both that incident and Garcia’s financial advantage.
I received a fairly nasty response to my diary from the Mark Mariano campaign, complaining that I used inaccurate financial data. I deleted the diary and looked into it. For reasons that remain unknown to me, when I did searches on the Division of Elections web page for certain candidates, it came up with fundraising totals that were inaccurate or incomplete. I have corrected the numbers. It affected maybe 1 out of 5 candidates.
For one race, that of Democrat Keith Fitzgerald, it affected my outlook on the race. I have moved him from Tossup/Tilt D to Lean D. I apologize to Mr. Fitzgerald, who has done a great job of holding down a tough district (although I don’t think much of anyone read the diary except Dr. Marciano). I think Fitzgerald’s in pretty good shape.
My opinion of the Mark Marciano race has not changed, nor would any rational observer change his or her opinion of the race based on the correction of the fundraising number (his opponent’s number was also revised upward).
To the Marciano campaign I do not apologize, but assure you that I am a Democrat and I support you. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you, dude!