AK-Sen: Libertarians, Lawyers, The Fed, and Other Updates

We did this yesterday, and by God, we’re doing it again. It’s time to sort out the craziness that is the Alaska Senate race.

  • The Math: Our own Jeffmd, the mad scientist of SSP Labs, forecast earlier today that Murkowski may actually lose ground once the absentee and provisional votes are counted. However, Jeff’s math assumed 7,500 GOP absentees and 5,000 provisionals (or “questioned” ballots) would be counted. That number may come in a bit higher than that. From the Anchorage Daily News:

    Elections officials on Thursday evening released the first detailed breakdown of the remaining ballots.

    The state has received back 11,266 absentee ballots so far out of over 16,000 requested. The ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday’s election but can come in as much as 15 days afterward.

    There are also 658 early votes not yet counted and 8,972 questioned ballots. A ballot can be “questioned” for several reasons. Often the reason is that the voter cast the ballot in a precinct other than where they live.

    Of course, it’s worth repeating that some of these ballots will be counted toward the Democratic primary (although Murkowski’s campaign manager, who observed the sorting of absentee ballots at the Division of Elections, said that a “very, very high percentage” of the ballots were Republican) and some will ultimately be disqualified. Counting the ballots should be a deliciously tense affair for all involved, and Joe Miller has already lashed out at Murkowski for calling in an NRSC lawyer in an attempt to “pull an Al Franken”. (I think the more appropriate term would be “pull a Norm Coleman”, but clearly Miller knows how to ace the lunatic cultural litmus test of the right.)

  • The Schedule: Here’s the timetable for the outstanding ballot count:

    The Division of Elections plans to count all the absentee ballots on Aug. 31 that it has received by then. Some of the questioned ballots will be disqualified; for example if it turns out the voter really wasn’t registered in Alaska. Those that are valid will likely be counted on Sept. 3. Elections officials said they’ll do a final count of absentees and any other remaining ballots on Sept. 8.

    Circle those dates on your calendar — especially the 31st, which should represent the biggest chunk of outstanding ballots.

  • “Considering All Options”: Murkowski’s camp is staying tight-lipped on the possibility of pursuing a third-party bid, but there are definitely some signs that she’s seriously considering it. Andrew Halcro, a Murkowski supporter who ran for Governor against Sarah Palin in 2006 as an indie, has apparently begun reaching out to Libertarian nominee David Haese about a possible third-party run for Murkowski:

    There is a possibility that Murkowski could run on the Libertarian ticket in the November general election if she loses the Republican primary. The Alaska Libertarian Party is discussing the possibility and its Senate candidate, David Haase, has said he is open to talking to Murkowski about him stepping aside.

    Andrew Halcro, a Murkowski supporter who served with her in the state Legislature, called Haase on Wednesday and discussed the possibility. Halcro said he was acting on his own and not coordinating with the Murkowski campaign.

    Halcro said he did bring it up with Murkowski on Thursday morning. “She said what she’s told (the media), that she’s considering all the options,” he said.

  • Strings Attached: But what price would Murkowski have to pay in order to secure a ballot position from the Libertarians? By the sounds of it, Haese has one pet issue near and dear to his heart… nationalizing the Federal Reserve:

    Libertarian Haase is the only third party candidate in the race, so that would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run. Haase would surely press Murkowski on the Federal Reserve, which is his focus. “Let’s take the Federal Reserve, nationalize it and take that income earning capacity and turn it over to the people to finance Social Security and Medicare,” Haase said.

    Putting aside the mind-boggling reality of a Libertarian who wants to protect Social Security and Medicare… I have to admit that I’m mystified as to what exactly “nationalizing” the Fed would entail. But, hey, no one reads SSP for the policy! Anyhow, I wonder if Murkowski’s support of a David Vitter amendment which supported a stronger audit of the Fed than the one that ultimately passed might endear her to the Libertarians.

  • McAdams Gears Up: While Miller and Murkowski go into a state of vigil, Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka, is busy exciting Democratic activists on the ground in Alaska. The Mudflats has video of a speech McAdams gave to a gathering of Alaska Dems on Wednesday night, and I like what I’m hearing – the man knows how to work a room. In case you’d rather not sit through a ten-minute video, Real Clear Politics has a partial recap:

    McAdams soothed some of the heartburn within the party after his first conference call with reporters on Wednesday, in which he came across as poised and up to speed on statewide issues. Then in a speech on Wednesday at the Alaska Democrats Unity Dinner in Anchorage, McAdams made it clear that he will not make the same mistake that Murkowski did in neglecting to define Miller early.

    The Democratic nominee struck an aggressively contemptuous note, referred to “this Joe Miller character” and calling him a “fringe character.”

    The man’s got some game:

    As McAdams also demonstrated on Wednesday, he will also seize upon the very platform that appealed so much to Miller’s fiscally conservative to libertarian primary voters. After all, it won’t be easy for a candidate who vows to fight government largess to win a general election in Alaska-the state that has long benefited more than any other from federal pork projects.

    “I hear him talk about the end of federal investment in Alaska,” McAdams said on Wednesday, eliciting uproarious laughter from the crowd of Democrats in attendance.

    “There’s a vote getter!” an anonymous voice in the crowd shouted, causing another eruption from the crowd.

    McAdams continued to hammer home the point. “But the good news is that we as Democrats stand up for working people,” he said. “We believe in job creation. We believe that Alaska as a young state deserves to be developed like every other western state in the history of the United States.”

  • Observant swingnuts can probably tell that I’ve been very, very sour on Democratic hopes in general this cycle for quite some time. But, it’s the Sharron Angles and the Rand Pauls and the Joe Millers of this world that make this cycle, at the very least, a lot more competitive and entertaining to watch than it has any right to be. For now, the more I think about this race, the more I like it.

    14 thoughts on “AK-Sen: Libertarians, Lawyers, The Fed, and Other Updates”

    1. Every day, in every diary for about a year. We know.

      On topic I have to agree, the more i’m hearing Scott McAdams, the more I like him sounds like he could make for a great Senator. That’s all I have to say about that.

    2. Man, this guy’s rock solid. You really get the feeling that McAdams is a genuinely good guy, not some garden variety pol that you see in both parties. With Murkowski running Libetarian, a few hundred thousand from the DSCC, and increased exposure to the media, I’m excited about this possibilities for this race. I may have found my new favorite Senate candidate for this cycle…

    3. Even though I think third parties are a waste of a vote, I encourage Murkowski to run as a Libertarian.  Seeing the tea party types share some ideological features of the Libertarian Party, it would be fascinating to see their response.  Additionally, I think it would be funny as hell to see the Libertarian Party, the supposedly pure party, sell its soul for a Senate seat.

    4. I agree with everyone that McAdams looks great in the video, it doesn’t look like Murkowski will pull out the absentees, and her camp is making increasing noises about the Libertarian option. One thing about the last point: if she does this she and Miller will be competing for the same pool of voters, unlike in Florida.

      My one cautionary note: I do think Murkowski needs to go third party for the Dems to have a shot. Miller is extreme, but he’s articulate and has a great bio, and I’m guessing Obama isn’t too popular in Alaska right now, so I think if it’s Miller vs McAdams, it’s Republican favored

    5. Murkowski makes so much noise about a third party bid that when she actually does somehow get pushed over the top that Miller ends up running instead.

      For some reason I think him going rogue on the “Republicans” would hurt more than her going rogue on the “Republicans.”

    6. They’ve polled almost every competitive race this year the day after the primary. I’m stunned that they didn’t have Miller/McAdams, Murkowski/McAdams, and Miller (R)/Murkowski (L)/McAdams numbers out this morning. I know a lot of people don’t trust Ras, but it would be nice to at least see their take.

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