StephenCLE’s 2010 Governor Predictions – Initial Picks

StephenCLE’s Governor Races 2010 Preview –

Current governor breakdown – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

38 seats are up for grabs in 2010

First up, here’s the map:

Now for the wordy roundup of each race (although some aren’t so wordy):

Alabama – Ron Sparks vs Robert Bentley – This is a race that would in a normal year look interesting because of Alabama’s penchant for electing conservative democrats every now and then.  However, with a republican wave set to sweep the nation and the south in particular, I don’t give Sparks much of a chance here.  Bentley by 20 points at least.

Rating – Solid R

Alaska – Sean Parnell vs Ethan Berkowitz – With the Senate race surprisingly haywire a few days ago, a lot of attention has been thrown Alaska’s way, but not for this race.  Parnell is safe.

Rating – Solid R

Arizona – Jan Brewer vs Terry Goddard – Now this is a race that looks interesting and that has had several twists and turns already and could have more down the stretch.  Goddard looked like a shoo-in until Jan Brewer signed the infamous SB 1070, igniting the whole immigration debate once again.  Polls have been mixed, but I feel Brewer is definitely ahead, but this race has the potential to be quite volatile.  It could boil down ultimately to whether Arizona’s immense Hispanic population turns out or not.  

Rating – Lean R

Arkansas – Jim Keet vs Mike Beebe – Unlike the rest of the south region, it looks like Arkansas is a safe haven for popular governor Mike Beebe.  Polls show him leading by 15-20 points right now.  Safe for now, but I could see a scenario where Blanche Lincoln drags down his victory margin if she fails to get 40% in the Senate race.

Rating – Safe D

California – Meg Whitman vs Jerry Brown – This has been a really close race since the start, but a lot of that is because Whitman, former EBay CEO, has absolutely gone crazy with saturating the airwaves, spending tens of millions of her own money.  Former governor Jerry Brown, who is the democratic nominee, hasn’t gone to the advertising well much as of yet.  Hard to tell what will happen in the polls once he does, but I’d think he’d get at least a slight bounce.  Close one right now, I think Brown will win in the end though.  

Rating – Toss Up

Colorado – Dan Maes vs John Hickenlooper vs Tom Tancredo – A total clustereff for the GOP, as their top man, Scott McInnis, got thrown to the curb following news of plagiarism in his past.  The ordeal prompted conservative blowhard Tom Tancredo to run as an independent, and between him and the rather weak GOP candidate, Dan Maes, the right is horrible split.  Unless one or the other collapses at some point, Hickenlooper will walk into office.

Rating – Likely D

Connecticut – Tom Foley vs Dan Malloy – Jodi Rell’s retirement really helped out the democrats here, as their candidate, former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, is holding a big lead over GOP candidate Tom Foley.  That, coupled with the overall lean of the state leads me to believe that this one is almost in the bag.  Malloy would really have to screw up to not win.

Rating – Likely D

Florida – Rick Scott vs Alex Sink vs Bud Chiles – Florida is chock-full of 3-way races this cycle, and with Bud Chiles pulling at least 10% in most polls, I throw him in here, but really the race is between Rick Scott and Alex Sink.  Scott is a rich, teabagging jerkoff that won this seat solely because of his riches, as the much stronger GOP establishment fave, Bill McCollum, got swallowed in negative ads.  Scott’s favorables are in the tank.  Sink, Florida’s CFO, has mostly stayed away from the fray so far, and her favorables are still quite good.  Despite the year and the fickleness of Florida politically, I like Sink right now to win.

Rating – Lean D

Georgia – Nathan Deal vs Roy Barnes – Georgia is a state that in an environment like this should be out of reach to Team Blue.  But the democrats nominated a strong candidate in former governor Roy Barnes, while Team Red went with the ethically-questionable 9th house district rep Nathan Deal.  The candidate strength disparity is keeping this one competitive and I think it’ll be a fight all the way.  In the end I expect the republican surge, and the southern surge in particular (R’s lead by 20+ on the generic ballot in the southeast), to carry Deal across the finish line.

Rating – Toss Up

Hawaii – Duke Aiona vs Neil Abercrombie/Mufi Hannemann – The democratic primary hasn’t been held yet here, but unless things really get ugly between Abercrombie and Hannemann, I expect either will crush Aiona in November.  

Rating – Solid D

Idaho – Butch Otter vs Keith Allred – This race isn’t going to be much worth watching.  Otter should cruise in this hugely red state.

Rating – Solid R

Illinois – Bill Brady vs Pat Quinn – This race to me is a real shocker.  On the GOP side, you have a deeply conservative candidate from downstate that should never, ever, in a million years be elected statewide in Illinois.  Yet it seems that governor Pat Quinn is so universally hated by the masses that he is going to end up losing.  I don’t understand why Quinn is so unpopular, and I want to believe that he can come back and win, but once you get below the SSP-coined “Corzine Line”, it’s very difficult to pull yourself up.

Rating – Lean R

Iowa – Terry Branstad vs Chet Culver – Another Midwestern governor’s race where it appears that the incumbent is so reviled that he has no chance.  Culver isn’t quite as hated as Quinn, but he’s also facing a much tougher opponent in former governor Terry Branstad.  

Rating – Likely R

Kansas – Sam Brownback vs Tom Holland – Blowout city.  Next.

Rating – Solid R

Maine – Paul LePage vs Elizabeth Mitchell – Wait, could you repeat those names again?  That’s the story of the Maine race right now, as neither is well-known.  Supposedly, LePage is too conservative for the state as a whole, but given that state’s past history, I’m somewhat ambivalent.  For now, I’ll stick with the PVI and say that Mitchell is slightly favored.  I haven’t seen any polling here recently either, and most early polling was by Scotty Rass.  

Rating – Toss Up

Maryland – Bob Ehrlich vs Martin O’Malley – Here’s a race that I don’t quite understand.  Martin O’Malley has generally decent, even good, favorables and resides in an extremely blue state.  Yet former governor Bob Ehrlich is within 5 points of him in the polls.  Maryland is an almost impossible state for Team Red, so unless the economy really goes to shit between now and November, I don’t see how Ehrlich can win.  It wouldn’t surprise me if O’Malley started pulling away at some point if his favorables stay +5-+10 where they are now.  

Rating – Lean D

Massachusetts – Charlie Baker vs Deval Patrick vs Tim Cahill – Here’s another three-way, and it was a pretty close one too until the RGA went hard negative against indy Tim Cahill, knocking him down into the teens in the polls.  Deval Patrick is leading by 7-10 points generally, but he’s below 40% in most surveys.  Still, I don’t see MA electing republican senators and governors back to back.  The democratic base may not like Patrick, but nose-holding is practically a pastime in Massachusetts.

Rating – Lean D

Michigan – Rick Snyder vs Virg Bernero – Let me start by saying that I absolutely adore Virg Bernero, I think he’s probably the greatest progressive nominee the Democrats have in the governor’s area this cycle.  But, the bad thing is, he may be too liberal even for Michigan, and he’s going up against a centrist in Rick Snyder.  Polls are showing Snyder way ahead too.  It looks like this is a case of the outgoing governor being so unpopular that it drags down the current nominee.  What a shame.

Rating – Lean R

Minnesota – Tom Emmer vs Mark Dayton – This is the one state in the Midwest that hasn’t seemed to lose it’s democratic leanings, at least as far as governors are concerned.  Former senator Mark Dayton appears to be on pace to take out GOP nominee Tom Emmer by a wide margin.  Better yet, the latter probably won’t be able to eat at a restaurant in Minnesota without having his food spat in for the rest of his life.

Rating – Likely D

Nebraska – Dave Heineman vs Dave Meister – The only question here is, does Heineman feel like becoming a senator?  He’s got it if he wants it in 2012.

Rating – Solid R

Nevada – Brian Sandoval vs Rory Reid – The republicans in NV did themselves a favor by kicking unpopular governor Jim Gibbons to the curb in favor of attorney general Brian Sandoval.  The latter has had a few hiccups on the campaign trail already, but is a huge favorite over Rory Reid, who is probably unpopular solely due to his last name.  

Rating – Likely R

New Hampshire – undetermined vs John Lynch – The republican candidate is yet to be determined in New Hampshire, but incumbent governor John Lynch is doing very well in the polls and has very solid favorables.  Safe, even though NH has turned rightward this cycle.

Rating – Solid D

New Mexico – Susana Martinez vs Diane Denish – This could be one of the closest and most intriguing races of the cycle.  Dona Ana county district attorney Susana Martinez is the republican candidate, her opponent is lieutenant governor Diane Denish.  From what I can tell both of these individuals have good favorables and the campaign thus far has been low key and positive.  Polling is close as well, with most giving Martinez a small lead at the moment.  NM is a democratic state, but the year is republican.  This one’s going to be a tough cookie.

Rating – Toss Up

New York – undetermined vs Andrew Cuomo – The republicans haven’t determined their candidate here yet, but it won’t matter, as popular AG Andrew Cuomo will demolish whoever his opponent is.

Rating – Solid D

Ohio – John Kasich vs Ted Strickland – Here’s another tough race.  Former Lehman Brothers higher-up John Kasich is the republican nominee, and he takes on incumbent Ted Strickland, who breezed to victory 4 years ago.  The environment now is vastly different, and this election so far has centered upon jobs.  The question here is whether or not Ohio voters are willing to pin the blame for Ohio’s economy on Strickland or if they will attribute it more to factors outside of his control.  I’m definitely not as confident about this one as I was two months ago, but it’ll still be a fierce fight all the way.

Rating – Toss Up

Oklahoma – Mary Fallin vs Jari Askins – In a year like this, states like Oklahoma is simply out of the discussion for Team Blue.  It’s a shame, because Askins isn’t half bad as a candidate.

Rating – Solid R

Oregon – Chris Dudley vs John Kitzhaber – This is a race that I can’t quite get a handle on.  John Kitzhaber is a former governor of Oregon, and from polling thus far, is still relatively popular in the state.  Yet, he’s locked in a tight battle against former NBA player Chris Dudley, who from what I know about him has little to no political experience.  That, coupled with the democratic lean of Oregon, makes me to want to give Kitzhaber the advantage, but for now I will defer to the polls.  Of all the toss-ups though, I’m most confident that the democrats will win this one.

Rating – Toss Up

Pennsylvania – Tom Corbett vs Dan Onorato – I don’t know much about Tom Corbett, but apparently he is very popular with the republican base, and more importantly, independents, in Pennsylvania.  He is the sitting attorney general, while his opponent Dan Onorato is Allegheny county executive.  There are two scary things about this race, first off that Pennsylvania, which usually leans democratic, has gotten way away from it’s roots and looks like a likely R state at the moment.  Second, even though Onorato was arguably the best candidate the democrats had at their disposal, he’s still down around 10 points.  Ouch.

Rating – Likely R

Rhode Island – undetermined vs Frank Caprio vs Lincoln Chafee – Here’s another 3-way race, but it’s really a 3INO.  (3-way In Name Only)  The republican has no shot at winning, but polling has been relatively close between democrat Frank Caprio and independent former senator Lincoln Chafee.  The funny thing about this race is, if Chafee wins, he’ll probably be more liberal/progressive than Caprio, so an Ind Pickup is really the same or better as a Dem Pickup here.

Rating – Lean D

South Carolina – Nikki Haley vs Vincent Sheheen – This is a race that looks bad on paper for Team Blue, but has the possibility of getting interesting.  The SC GOP good ole boys clearly had a problem with Haley, and tried to sabotage her on several occasions in the primary, most notably with unsubstantiated allegations of infidelity.  The dem candidate, Vincent Sheheen, is a fairly strong campaigner who will be looking to capitalize on the GOP establishment’s dissatisfaction with Haley.  In a year like this, it’ll be very tough but certainly not impossible.

Rating – Lean R

South Dakota – Dennis Daaguard vs Scott Heidepriem – This won’t be much of a race.  Daaguard big.

Rating – Solid R

Tennessee – Bill Haslam vs Mike McWherter – Ditto for this one.  Haslam to romp.

Rating – Solid R

Texas – Rick Perry vs Bill White – Now this is the one southern governorship (other than perhaps Georgia, I don’t consider Florida southern persay) that has a chance of going red to blue.  Rick Perry is an extremely unpopular incumbent, probably similar to Chet Culver in Iowa.  The difference between Perry and Culver is twofold, first off the year which leans republican, and second the states in which they represent.  But if any democrat has a chance of cracking extremely republican Texas in a year like this, popular Houston mayor Bill White is it.  This is a race that probably leans Perry at the moment, but will probably buck the rightward trend of the nation as we get down the stretch.

Rating – Lean R

Utah – Gary Herbert vs Peter Corroon – Corroon was actually a decent get for the democrats as he is the mayor (I think) of Salt Lake county.  That being said, like Oklahoma, in a year like this, Utah is hopeless.

Rating – Solid R

Vermont – Brian Dubie vs Peter Shumlin – It amazes me that a state as liberal and democratic as Vermont could elect a republican governor here, but the democrats nominated their weakest possible candidate, Peter Shumlin, and Dubie is actually quite popular in VT.  I have this one at tossup, mostly because of the gigantic democratic lean of the state, but if polling continues to show Dubie ahead I might have to trust the polls at some point.

Rating – Toss Up

Wisconsin – Scott Walker vs Tom Barrett – This has the makings of another close race in what is usually a fairly swingy state.  The republican candidate is Milwaukee County executive Scott Walker, and in a backyard brawl of sorts he faces democratic Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett.  Polling so far has shown this as either a dead heat or a very small lead for Walker. Incumbent governor Jim Doyle isn’t all that popular, which hurts Barrett, but I don’t get the feeling that democrats have felt a big backlash in Wisconsin like they have in some other states in the region.  

Rating – Toss Up

Wyoming – Matt Mead vs Leslie Petersen – Cmon now, this is Wyoming in 2010.  Nothing to see here.  

Rating – Solid R

Recap – Well, the governor’s races this cycle for the most part lean republican, but the results vary greatly from state to state and region to region.  Overall I have the democrats picking up governorships in Hawaii, Connecticut, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and California.  The republicans will pick up governorships in New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Tennessee.  Many of these races are close, and are closely tied to voter discontent and the economy, much more so even than Senate or House races.  Therefore we could see some great volatility in these rankings before we reach the end of the campaign in November.

2010 Governors Big Board

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

Hawaii

New Hampshire

New York

Likely Dem – 3 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Minnesota

Lean Dem – 4 seats

Florida

Maryland

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Toss Up – 8 seats

California

Georgia

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Wisconsin

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Arizona

Illinois

Michigan

South Carolina

Texas

Likely Rep – 3 seats

Iowa

Nevada

Pennsylvania

Solid Rep – 10 seats

Alabama

Alaska

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming