SurveyUSA (8/31-9/2, likely voters, 7/17-20 in parens):
Rick Boucher (D-inc): 50 (52)
Morgan Griffith (R): 40 (39)
Jeremiah Heaton (I): 5 (5)
Undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
SurveyUSA again takes the pulse of the much-hyped race between veteran Dem Rep. Rick Boucher and Virginia House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, and finds that the needle hasn’t budged significantly over the past month and a half. SUSA’s likely voter universe has gotten slightly more Republican over that time, shifting from 33D-35R-29I to 32D-37R-29I, but Boucher is still strong enough in less-friendly demographics to maintain a decent lead. Boucher takes a quarter of the Republican vote and holds a one-point lead among indies — very strong numbers compared to the performance of other Democratic incumbents playing on red turf this year.
We haven’t seen a great deal of polling from this race, but all indicators are surprisingly positive for Boucher. In addition to this pair of SUSA polls, a mid-August Benenson Strategy Group internal poll for Rick Boucher gave him a 55-32 lead over Griffith. With plenty of time left on the clock, Boucher is by no means safe, but it appears he has slipped down the priority list for Republican gunners this fall.
18-34 Griffith leads 49-37?
65+ Boucher leads 58-35?
SUSA continues to churn out some weird results in their age groups…
Could Boucher possibly use Griffith’s time in the state legislature as insulation?
Paint him as a “Richmond insider” or something.
Given SUSA’s ridiculous Republican bias in this cycle, and their horrible performance in house races in ’08.
that Boucher is receiving 25% of the GOP vote this year. His vote against the health care bill may save him. I think this is a good race to watch to track whether or not the situation gets worse for Dems or not.
I think this race is a great example why the bulk of Democratic losses are not going to be in conservaDem seats. These voters might not like Obama, but they are not necessarily opposed to spending seeing their areas are so dependent on government spending. Until you spend some time in one of these districts like I did when I lived in PA-12, you do not realize how dependent on government programs such regions are.
I read somewhere that Griffith is using this race as sort of a test run for the 2012 election. Redistricting will occur before 2012 and I think Boucher could have a much tougher race then. If Griffith runs in 2012, one thing to his advantage would most likely be not having to face the charge of being a carpetbagger to the district. The district barely excludes Griffith’s residence. It probably would include it in 2012 due to the district needing to gain constituents. Griffith could be running in a more favorable district in 2012 due to the population loss. The two districts the 9th would be able to absorb partially are the 5th and 6th districts, both of which are very favorable to Republican candidates. Their western portions, which would be the ones that would be potentially merged with the 9th, are mostly Republican with the notable exceptions being cities such as Martinsville and Roanoke City. Republicans, like in the last redistricting, will be able to exert control over the process. They don’t hold the trifecta of power (Governor, House of Delegates, and State Senate) like they did in the last redistricting but they hold two out of the three with the Democrats being in control of the State Senate. What changes do you see for the Ninth District after redistricting?
No matter who decides the lines, the only possible way for the 9th to expand is to eat into the 5th and 6th. And while those are generally Republican areas, the more important matter is that these are areas that have no loyalty to Boucher, unlike some of the panhandle counties that have known him for ever.
Since VA state leg elections are in odd numbered years, Griffith loses nothing by running this year. I’d expect to see him run a positive, introductory campaign through Election Day, letting outside and national groups, to the extent they want to get involved, hit Boucher on cap and trade and other issues. Then in 2012, with Obama on the top of the ticket, Griffith can run again (still as House Majority Leader) after spending the previous two years continuing to introduce himself to the voters.