SurveyUSA (8/31-9/2, likely voters, no trend lines):
Rick Larsen (D-inc): 46
John Koster (R): 50
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4%)
This poll comes in the wake of the final top-two primary results giving Koster a 298 vote lead over Larsen. Digging deeper, though, two Democratic candidates took a full 10% of the primary vote, resulting in a final score of 52-48 for Team Blue. This is the second time that Koster has won the top-two primary vote against Larsen, the first time coming in 2000, where Larsen ultimately won the general election by 50-46.
Comparing these results to previous SUSA polls of this district in 2008 and 2006, the partisan composition of the sample isn’t what’s hurting Larsen; the damage is coming from Larsen’s struggles among independent voters. He loses those voters by 12 points, compared to monster-sized wins among indies in the past two cycles. The 18-34 year-old vote has shrunk substantially, too, down to 13% of the sample — leaving behind a demographic that flocks to Koster by 22 points.
You may take issue with the poll, but this one is shaping up to be a very close race.
despite outspending his opponent 3.5 to 1. People seem to forget that WA-02 is a competitive district, it’s just that Republicans haven’t had many good cycles in the state lately, so Larsen hasn’t had a tough fight since 2002.
where there is a repub internal to compare to, internal repub polls should show Larsen winning by 6-13 points.
Cook still rates it lean D.
will probably win here, which may carry Koster over the line. Murray won this district in 2004 with 53%, and Rossi won it in the governor’s race in 2004 with 50%. Rossi’s win in WA-03 is probably putting another minus to Heck’s campaign, as well.
I think the election will look a lot like Washington 2004, with Murray winning by a small margin.
to get rid of his two time loser stink? or is it just him saying “it’s good republican year and I’m all you’ve got washington republicans, I’m all you’ve got!”
it SUKSA.
Rick Larsen has a strong GOTV program at Western Washington University, and can pull a solid 6k votes from those precincts along, counting students and professors. They don’t hang around for the primary or are out of town. In a similar vein, lots of people who voted for Larry Kalb and Diana McGinness (his Dem challengers) will come around and vote for Larsen in the end. A good chunk will anyway. Larsen is safe, he’ll have to work his butt off for it, but he will cruise with a 4% margin.