In any effort to fight fire with fire, the DCCC has released their internal polls from five House races as part of a push-back effort against a recent wave of GOP-sponsored polling that’s been flooding the zone. We only have top lines – no innards – so take these with the appropriate grain of salt:
AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (8/23-26, likely voters):
Bobby Bright (D-inc): 52
Martha Roby (R): 43
(MoE: ±4.9%)
NC-08: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (8/25-29, likely voters):
Larry Kissell (D-inc): 48
Harold Johnnson (R): 36
Thomas Hill (L): 6
(MoE: ±4.9%)
NY-24: Benenson Strategy Group (8/29-31, likely voters):
Mike Arcuri (D-inc): 50
Richard Hanna (R): 37
(MoE: ±4.9%)
SD-AL: Anzalone Liszt (8/31-9/2, likely voters):
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50
Kristi Noem (R): 39
B. Thomas Marking (I): 4
(MoE: ±4.9%)
VA-05: Global Strategy Group (8/24-26, likely voters):
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 42
Rob Hurt (R): 44
Jeff Clark (I): 6
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Meanwhile, the campaigns of three Democrats have coughed up their own polls:
IL-10: Anzalone Liszt for Dan Seals (8/30-9/2, likely voters, May in parens):
Dan Seals (D): 49 (46)
Bob Dold (R): 36 (38)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
MS-01: Anzalone Liszt for Travis Childers (8/30-9/1, likely voters):
Travis Childers (D-inc): 46
Alan Nunnelee (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)
PA-04: Anzalone Liszt for Jason Altmire (8/30-9/2, likely voters):
Jason Altmire (D-inc): 51
Keith Rothfus (R): 24
(MoE: ±4.9%)
UPDATE: We have one more!
KS-04: Gerstein | Agne for Raj Goyle (8/10-11, likely voters):
Raj Goyle (D): 47
Mike Pompeo (R): 50
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Surprised that Anzalone-Liszt did not conduct the AL-02 poll. They’re top notch in polling in the South. Glad to see them polling in other areas too.
on the Arcuri result. Still a nice change of pace, from the constant flow of Republican internals. If Democrats have polling that shows things aren’t all lost, why haven’t they been doing this kind of thing on a wider and more consistent scale? Seriously? Poor David is soon going to enter the “Abandon hope all ye who enter here” stage.
A few weeks ago, Nate SIlver found that Republican internals historically exaggerate their candidate’s support slightly more than Democratic internals. I am therefore inclined to believe that reality lies closer to these within these races.
Yeah… right.
Raj Goyle’s campaign is dreaming.
Did they have more polls that weren’t released?
as well as the GOP internals with serious skepticism. It is not hard to manipulate the likely voter screen to get a result that you want.
The one thing I gather from these polls is that Bobby Bright will be in a much tougher race than has been suggested here on this blog. A GOP wave might wash him away. And without other evidence, I think it is possible that Arcuri might end up being the Jim Gerlach of this cycle.
Well, as I commented earlier:
Republican internals have historical exaggerated their performance more than Democratic internals, according to Nate Silver.
So, even though I agree that reality is somewhere in between this and your own party’s internals, I’m going to go with the historical record and assume that it is somewhat closer to these than those.
the Rasmussen ND-AL and SD-AL polls for awhile–and the motives behind them. I’m glad to see Sandlin doing well.
And… hot damn! Look at Altmire. I know these are all internals, but Altmire up 27! Awesome.
Also, one last thing, why have so many here been writing off Childers? I’ve seen very little polling to say he’s going down, and he’s been holding a pretty tough district over two elections.
I was thinking about this, and regardless of the validity of any of these polls, I’m so glad the DCCC released these today. The news has been so unremittingly bad on every news site today, that I really need this to cheer me up. Otherwise, I think I would have had to avoid SSP entirely, and I hate to do that!
that’s kind of nice in it’s own way too.
Oliviero 41, McKinley 36.
http://www.newsandsentinel.com…
Adams 49, Kosmas 37
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz…
Last time, after the close call, they said, “This didn’t show up in our internals at all!” Or something to that effect.
On the other hand, I am excited about Goyle, especially with a potential libertarian bid brewing.
If you subtract 5 points from the Dem’s lead (or add 5 to the deficit) in each case, they’re all believable except for Arcuri. I’m surprised that he would be up on Hanna at all, let alone by 8. Sandlin doesn’t surprise me given the bad press Noem got.
Then I’m glad of see these polls. And they gives good results, better still.
I would wish to see some polls more for seats like:
PA-17
NY-19
MS-04
CT-05
MN-01
UT-02
FL-24
They are lots of interesting places for do more internal polls.