Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):
Jack Conway (D): 46
Rand Paul (R): 46
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Hooray! The citizens of Kentucky have finally seen through Rand Paul’s attempts to put a conventional Republican gloss on his oddball libertarianism! All the momentum is with Jack Conway! Oh, wait… what’s that? It’s a poll of registered voters at this late date? Taking into mind how much PPP’s numbers have fallen off since the switch from a more-or-less RV model to a pure likely voter model, that should mean… aw, crap.
SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV and Louisville Courier-Journal (8/30-9/1, likely voters, 7/27-29 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 40 (43)
Rand Paul (R): 55 (51)
Undecided: 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Oh, no! The bottom’s fallen out for Jack Conway in the last month! Wait… what’s that? The self-identified 47% Dem, 42% GOP, 10% Other breakdown of this poll is totally out of whack with Kentucky’s historic voting patterns? (Dems have always had at least a 25% registration advantage over GOPers, and recalculation to reflect that traditional breakdown points to a 51-44 margin, according to analysis by Pete Brodnitz, of Conway pollster the Benenson Group.) Hmmm, guess we’d better get down from that ledge.
Well, how about a tie-breaker, then? On behalf of somebody called the Kentucky Leadership Council, Democratic pollster John Anzalone (I’m not sure if this is just imprecision on The Fix’s part, or if he’s operating truly outside of Anzalone-Liszt) is out with a poll that gives Rand Paul a 48-45 lead over Jack Conway. However… one other thing missing from the writeup of this poll is whether or not it’s freakin’ registered voters or likely voters! Aaaghghgh! [begins pounding head on desk] (Update: The polling memo gives us answers to two questions – it was by ALR, and its sample was of likely voters.)
Oh, by the way, at least we can be certain about one thing: how much money Jack Conway raised with his one-day moneybomb event yesterday. He set a $260K goal and went well past it, raising “more than” $300K (although it sounds like at least $45K of that was lined up ahead of schedule). As for Paul, he’s up with his first TV ad of the general, highlighting his time as a physician, rather messianically titled “Gift of Sight.” (No mention of his breaking with Big Ophthalmology to start his own renegade certification scheme, though.) No offical WOTSOTB, but estimates are of $250K.
Which echoed SurveyUSA.
PPP comes out with Kentucky tomorrow… considering their likely voter screen is even TIGHTER than Rasmussen’s and is automated polling, I’m not feeling so good about that one…
is no-one knows who will win this election, and that getting out the vote or not getting it out will determine the outcome.
It is such a shame for Conway that he is running in this type of environment. In any of the last 2 cycles he likely would be a very narrow favorite. Given the demographics of KY along with the wind in his face I have a really hard time seeing any path to victory for Conway. To me this is about a 5-8 point Paul lead. Paul has made lots of people nervous with his comments but I think that Conway’s party affiliation makes people more nervous than whatever Paul says.
My guess is he would have won if he had kept away from Obama, since Bruce Lunsford came within 6 and Conway was much better known than him. A visit from Hillary Clinton probably would have helped him a lot.
Conway picks another terrible cycle to run after losing to Northup in 2002.